The truth behind RFK Jr’s dramatic drop in the polls

Is the RFK Jr craze a mirage? While over a fifth of Americans said last autumn that they’d vote for the independent politician in the presidential election, a new poll seems to suggest he’s fallen dramatically behind the two main candidates.

According to the latest New York Times/Siena figures RFK Jr has pulled a meagre 2% of the vote — down 20 percentage points from his peak in October. But a closer look is required. Crucially, Kennedy wasn’t included on the questionnaire, and nor were any of the presidential hopefuls apart from Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The 2% figure represents those who volunteered RFK Jr’s name — had the poll listed him as an option, he likely would have had a much stronger performance.

Siena didn't list RFK as an option and let respondents volunteer him instead. The results are a Complete and Total Vindication of Surname Soyfacing Theory

The two groups that show up as RFK curious when he's listed (youths & Hispanics) are actually least likely to mention him https://t.co/MmmQu62gux pic.twitter.com/Gba7OWoifM

— World's Biggest Crosstab Hater #BanCrosstabs (@schlagteslinks) April 14, 2024

Then again, as the electoral clock counts down to November, perhaps independent voters are beginning to realise third-party candidates don’t tend to become president. Guess it’s a rematch, then…

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