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In the general election earlier this month, Reform UK achieved something Ukip never could: winning a seat in Parliament. But how exactly did Nigel Farage’s new party pull it off? According to pollster James Kanagasooriam, there were three key differences between Ukip’s performance in 2015 and Reform’s this year:
Looking at the difference in UKIP 2015 performance vs Reform’s 2024 shows i) Reform’s much stronger performance in Scotland in 2024 ii) candidate effects iii) demographic change over the period iv) strong regional appeal of Reform’s brand vs UKIP in Essex, Lincolnshire, South… pic.twitter.com/X2Jp4iBnCl
— James Kanagasooriam (@JamesKanag) July 29, 2024
The notable swings in support on the British fringes and in coastal areas show that Reform is a very different party from its older incarnation nearly 10 years ago. Watch out, John Swinney…
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