Will Rishi Sunak lose his seat?

Every time a new poll shows the looming Tory disaster, Rishi Sunak must think it can’t get any worse. A poll from Savanta this afternoon suggests it can.

NEW Savanta MRP for @Telegraph

Lab projected for 382 majority
Cons fighting with LDs to be Official Opposition

Seat forecast

Lab 516 (+316)
Con 53 (-319)
LD 50 (+42)
️SNP 8 (-40)
PC 4 (+2)
⬜️Other 0 (-1)

17,812 UK adults, changes to last GE notional results pic.twitter.com/JNfSE82XQr

— Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) June 19, 2024

In what the Telegraph is calling a “bloodbath”, it predicts that three-quarters of the Cabinet are on track to lose their seats. Crucially, though, this includes the Prime Minister’s supposedly safe seat of Richmond in Yorkshire. Should this come to fruition, Sunak would become the first sitting prime minister ever to lose their seat. Forget the Portillo moment: we could soon be seeing the Sunak moment.

This the most dramatic polling to date, placing the Tories on a measly 53 seats to Labour’s gargantuan 516. The ubiquitous phrase “supermajority” doesn’t do that figure justice. Some have speculated that Sunak, expecting defeat, called the election just in time for his children to start the new American school year. Remaining PM was a long shot, but he may be back in California even sooner if he loses his seat…