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Joe Biden’s no-good-very-bad week is turning worse and worse. A poll shared on the Silver Bulletin Substack shows Biden’s win probability slipping from 34.7% on 27 June (the day of the debate), to 27.6% on 1 July.
7/1 model update.
Debate beginning to take a real bite out of Biden. pic.twitter.com/lSESmUd4JZ
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 1, 2024
It’s yet another indication of how terminal things have become for the president. But some Democrats aren’t taking the hint. According to campaign insiders, internal polling in swing states remains the same as it did before the debate, with Biden narrowly trailing Trump. Weija Jiang of CBS News posted on X: “The Biden campaign’s internal polling shows that the President’s support is unchanged following the debate, with Trump leading 46% to Biden’s 45% — virtually identical to its polling in May.”
But as Olivia Nuzzi notes, this is pretty desperate stuff considering that it shows Biden still losing. Nothing to worry about, then…
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