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December 30, 2024 - 5:30pm
The rise of Donald Trump was thought by many to be a rebuke to foreign adventurism. But the President-elect’s recent expressions of interest in acquiring territory at the expense of Canada, Mexico, Panama, and Denmark signal not so much an end to American empire as its reorientation away from liberal internationalism. Instead, they look toward what has been termed a new “manifest destiny”, which seeks to augment the size, power, and wealth of the US within its own continent and hemisphere.
Republicans claim this is simply a clever negotiating tactic to extract concessions, all part of a “broader plan” to reassert American interests. MAGA media supporters are having fun with the idea, blurring the line between seriousness and frivolity. But seen from the vantage point of US allies and neighbours, such threats are no laughing matter and cannot be treated as such.
In Canada, Trump’s “51st state” comments have triggered existential panic among the political class, despite the official silence of Justin Trudeau’s federal government. Instead, it has fallen to Ontario’s conservative Premier Doug Ford to articulate how Canada would respond to this and earlier tariff threats: in this case, by withholding vital energy exports to adjacent US states.
South of the border, Mexico and Panama have banded against the gringo colossus, with the latter country’s President, José Raúl Mulino, issuing a defiant rebuttal to Trump’s idea of retaking the canal. Meanwhile, Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum — who is also facing the threat of a “soft invasion” — seconded the motion, along with numerous other Latin American leaders. Trump’s stance would mark a stark reversal of the 1977 Panama Canal Treaty, a key part of the late Jimmy Carter‘s legacy.
For its part, Denmark has ramped up defences in Greenland this month in response to Trump’s offer to buy the territory, which he first floated in 2019. This is a significant move considering that the Danes are, like the Canadians, founding Nato allies.
All this points to mounting but arguably needless divisions at a time when the Western sphere should be working to secure internal unity in the face of strategic threats from rival powers such as China and, in the short-term at least, Russia. Trump’s tendency to view America’s relationships with the world through a crudely bilateral lens, as opposed to a more systemic one, may end up driving otherwise friendly nations into Beijing’s embrace. And it would make MAGA grievances about waning American prestige something of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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SubscribeIs it April 1st already? Must have slept through winter. Trump’s blustering about making Canada the 51st state is a joke to most Canadians that aren’t media pundits. The tariff threat is more realistic and has already produced results. All of a sudden, Canada has decided that border security is a serious issue. Mexican authorities have magically made the largest fentanyl bust in history. That’s the thing about Trump – you never know if he’s holding a carrot or a stick.
That is actually not a particularly smart move in this situation. If someone is demanding, unpredictable, and does his best to piss you off, it does not make you want to rely on him for any kind of long-term deal.
As some lower-level republican described recently, the US has a perfectly reasonable interest in Greenland. Both defence bases and mining in Greenland could make a big difference for either the US or China, and Greenland is slowly moving closer to independence. It should not be that hard for the US to make a mutually satisfactory deal. Denmark is pro-US and relies on NATO for its defence, and Greenland does not want to be the focus of a superpower conflict and has such a small population that it should not be difficult to bribe. Trump’s behaviour just makes China look like a more attractive partner for Greenland, or at least as a player who should be kept in the game to use in case the US ever got too obnoxious.
The article makes it sound like Canada, Denmark and Mexico have a legitimate either/or choice to make re: China/US. As a Canadian I can tell you that the Trudeau Liberals thought that as well and it’s been a disaster. As one of our pundits recently opined: If you take what was hinted at but not proven of the alleged Russian meddling in Trump’s 2016 win and multiply that by 10 – you’ll get something close to the level of actual and demonstrable Chinese interference in Canadian politics.
It’s an opening salvo. For Denmark, Canada and Panama, the US is the more powerful partner in their relationship with the US. Trump creates a big ask that seems outrageous and in doing so he reframes any other negotiation as relatively trivial in comparison. That changes the perspective of the normal petty horse-trading that bogs down agreement making.
And the thing is, that you don’t even know what Trump is really wanting to negotiate for yet. The big ask isn’t the end point, it’s a way of finding out what options are available – what are easy and hard deals that are possible to get the big ask off the table.
Exactly. Trump fancies himself a negotiator, and a common (and successful) tactic in a negotiation is to start out with a very aggressive posture so that later proposals are seen as conservative or even conciliatory.
The ink-stained wretches of the press should be glad Trump has given them something to talk about.
Well, in that case Denmark and Greenland ought to approach China and ask for offers. Just as an opening salvo, of course.
You’re ignoring the power-balance in the relationship. If Denmark was struggling financially it could easily put Greenland up for sale, but that would be from a position of weakness. That’s quite different from the US making overtures to see what it can get.
Yes v transactional. The worry is there isn’t actually strategic clarity behind it.
I’m not terribly worried about Chinese interests in Greenland. It’s one thing to threaten US carrier groups with barrages of hypersonic land based missiles and it’s quite another to threaten those same carrier groups on the other side of the planet from any supply lines or bases. Projecting power globally is not easy. It requires a network of bases and managing the supplies and materials of war across the globe. The US has over eight decades of experience doing this. China has none. China is building towards that capability in terms of having enough ships, but they’ve still got a long way to go.
This is the kind of crap Trump does that drives me nuts and makes me wonder about his competence. It just serves no real purpose. Creating a sense of ambiguity and uncertainty does carry certain advantages, but there are ways to do that without being overtly obnoxious. Some things just don’t need to be said out loud. Trump’s just saying things to rile people up because that’s what he does and he enjoys it. There’s no way he’s actually going to follow through on some plan to annex Greenland unless the Greenlanders themselves want it and a price can be negotiated with Denmark. As things stand, the US probably couldn’t afford the price tag. He doesn’t need to make these comments because people already know the US is big and powerful and that its magnanimity is not unlimited. Smart people don’t need to be reminded constantly of how cutthroat, amoral, and downright dirty that the business of geopolitics is. The neoliberal world order is fracturing and the world is dividing into competing economic blocs. Globalism is officially a dead horse and further beatings are unnecessary. All this was accomplished when Trump won the election. He’s just rubbing it in at this point, and that doesn’t sit well with me. Either that or just enjoys the confrontation in terms of getting his opponents to retaliate and bring things down to his level.
I upvoted that one.
When things seem volatile and uncertain what happens – people run to the Dollar. And how does that then help US exports and trade balance?
It’s tricky as there is a good argument the US would actually benefit from a weaker Dollar, and certainly re-shoring industries, and potential employees might welcome that. Yet much of Trump’s approach can have the opposite effect.
I love this comment; “Canada, as with Denmark, has soured on Beijing, but the argument for a volte-face could suddenly become more reasonable if talk of US annexation continues.”
The author is either ignorant to the degree to which China has already infiltrated the Canadian political establishment, or he chooses to ignore it. So ya, let’s all hyperventilate about Trump and his social media ramblings.
It’s fair to say Trump invites a lot of this controversy with his rhetoric. And I certainly don’t think he’s particularly smart or well read, but when it comes to negotiations, he’s playing 3D chess while Trudeau and Ford are playing checkers.
The US is not annexing Canada. Geez, I can’t believe I’m actually responding to such nonsense. Will he play hardball and get allies to live up to their commitments when it comes to defence and border security? No question. Trump is annoyed that America has to forever drag around the dead weight of its supposed allies. So you either get with the program or you don’t.
Yes absolutely right!
Europe has had a free ride on Uncle Sam for far too long…while secretly, or not so secretly, despising him.
It’s way past time Europe grew up and looked after itself but unfortunately spoilt children rarely do. That’s why they hate Trump…to use the much repeated phrase ” they can’t handle the truth”…and won’t for a long time yet.
A good point. As maddening as listening to Trump’s inane statements is, his ridiculous assertions can be read as a negotiation tactic. The fact is that there are not a whole lot of options when it comes to defense contractors. Most of the world’s military forces are fielding either American or (mostly inferior) Russian military equipment. China is catching up but there’s a lot of overlap between their stuff and the Russian stuff. Defense industries, like all industries, take time to develop. If Trump gets allies to spend a few more billion on their own defense, that money will go into the pockets of American defense contractors and weapons manufacturers that provide such things, and American factory workers. This is how a military power can extract economic benefits from military dependency. The US taxpayers are honestly tired of paying exorbitant sums for the bases and naval power it takes to make all this global trade possible and having very little to show for it while watching everyone kowtow to Chairman Xi so he doesn’t cut off their supply of cheap widgets. It’s high time we all recognized the world is changing and, as you say, get with the program. What’s not necessary is the language and the lack of respect. There are better ways to make the point that the age of the USA as the world’s benevolent policeman is over. The no-strings-attached defender of the neoliberal rules based order is about to start attaching some pretty significant strings. I think dropping bombs on social media is probably not the most effective way to send this message.
In negotiation, you always begin by asking for far more than what you actually WANT. The author may wish to bear this in mind.
You know what really shut China down and discouraged their global ambitions?
When they released a virus and started a pandemic that cost millions of lives and billions of dollars around the world, and Western governments scrambled to cover it all up for them.
China’s a little touchy about the whole Covid-origins thing, be polite and don’t mention it, ok? Wouldn’t want to upset the CCP now. Stop AAPI hate, you bigots.
In exchange for our troubles China has reformed its ways and will now be a model global citizen – as long as no one antagonizes them with tough talk and bluster.
How many times they practised blockade of Taiwan last year? How many clashes with Philippines Navy? Xi withdrawn his promise to take Taiwan back?
Spies and sleepers all over the place and overseen by their own Police forces based in our Countries.
And you say ‘reformed’?
I rather assumed it was satire
Good point, perhaps they’re not yet reformed! Maybe if we try even harder to keep them happy, then they will start being nicer to us.
One of the great benefits that we all might reap from Trump’s presidency is the rediscovery of our common sense of humor.
ridiculous
Just words, some comical and typical Trump…for now.
If though he does slap large tariffs on these Nations then that ‘may’ give China opportunities it wouldn’t otherwise be likely to have. (Although Trump likely to do what Elon wants re: China too and that isn’t a harder line than Biden)
Being a bit unpredictable can have some negotiating advantages, but it plays both ways and not necessarily because of a malign intent. The problem is the deliberately unpredictable can assume rationality in others and then get a surprise.
Yes. And the other problem about being unpredictable is that a deal with you is worth less, because there is no way of knowing whether you will keep your promises or come up with some other demand out of the blue. A some point it becomes rational to look for an alternative, just to avoid the risk of depending on your whim for the foreseeable future.
Yep agree RF. I’d add Trump’s additional problem is trade uncertainty, and uncertainty more generally, leads to more buying dollars and hence strengthening of the value of the Dollar. That then mitigates against exactly what he’s trying to achieve on trade balance. It’s the paradox at the heart of the US problem.