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December 20, 2024 - 7:00am
All parties involved in the Ukraine conflict are now manoeuvring for position in advance of the peace talks proposed by the incoming Donald Trump administration. What we do not know — and will not, until talks actually take place — is which of these positions are intended firmly to be held, which are initial bargaining counters, and which are intended to block the possibility of talks succeeding.
Both British Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, have said this week that they see no point in engaging in talks at this stage. In Lammy’s words, “Putin is not a man that you can negotiate with when he is causing such mayhem on European soil.” UK Defence Secretary John Healey also suggested this week that British troops could be stationed in Ukraine in a training role. Russia has made clear that these soldiers would be targeted as a result — which would provoke a drastic new spiral of escalation and potentially wreck peace talks. Of course, such troops could be regarded as a bargaining counter, to strengthen Ukraine’s hand in talks and to be withdrawn as part of an eventual agreement.
There are two problems here, however. The first is that these are not counters on a board with which Lammy is playing, but the lives of British soldiers — too many of whom have already died over the past generation in badly-planned wars with no connection to the UK’s national interests. The second is that the West has developed a disastrous tendency to turn proposals which should be matters for negotiation and bargaining — such as the empty and duplicitous idea of future Nato membership for Ukraine — into immutable issues of morality and prestige.
Western troops in Ukraine, whether in a training role or as peacekeepers as part of an agreement, are just as unacceptable to Moscow as Ukrainian Nato membership itself. If their presence is insisted on during peace talks, those discussions will collapse. The same is true of certain Kremlin demands — notably that Ukraine withdraw from territory it still holds in the four oblasts that Russia claims to have annexed. On other issues, such as “denazification” and limits on the Ukrainian armed forces, Russian interlocutors have told me that they think Vladimir Putin would be willing to compromise.
These are issues that can only be clarified in negotiations. And from a Western perspective, the only reason to delay talks — as suggested by Lammy and Kallas — would be if we were reasonably confident that Ukraine will be in a stronger position six months or a year from now than it is today.
Obviously, no such confidence can exist. On the contrary, in the months to come Ukraine seems certain to lose still more territory, and there is a real danger that its outnumbered and outgunned army will collapse entirely. And, whatever Brussels claims, given the budget crises now affecting the major European powers there can be no certainty that Western aid will continue at anything like its existing level.
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SubscribeWhat scares me about European politicians is that they don’t seem to have any real sense of how much power they have without America and will thus wade into far deeper water than they can deal with.
Given what Mr Lammy said about Trump in the past, by the time these talks take place whatever he says about Putin will be ‘historical’.
The German minister and vice-chancellor, Matthias Erzberger successfully negotiated a peace arrangement with Russia in 1917, despite being a fervent supporter of the war in 1914.
The German parliament had to agree that signing the Armistice demands of the Entente in 1918 was in Germany’s national interest. Erzberger was given the task. That he was assassinated for doing so indicates how fraught such an enterprise is, even for such a respected politician of note.
In fairness to Lammy, what he said about Trump wasn’t much different to what JD Vance said about Trump.
Indeed. I give you Baroness Cathy Ashton, Gordon Brown’s hand-picked appointment as the first ever “High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs” (2009-14). It was the incompetent meddling of people like her which led up to the Ukraine crisis. The Dunning-Kruger effect is alive and well amongst these people.
Well, they’d better learn. They need to massively boost their conventional armies, and get more nukes, because Russia WILL be back.
Too many people seem to (romantically) think that this war is “winnable” for Ukraine.
Whatever the outcome of the current conflict, I am grateful to the Ukrainian people for fighting the Russians as long as they have. Their dedication has made things easier for everyone who will have to fight the Russians the next time around, whether in a year’s time, five years’ time, or ten years’ time.
They can’t even define what winning means in this context. Because if they did, the absurdity of their position would become self-evident.
David Lammy has consistently demonstrated over many years that he is a complete idiot. Even last week he said that “Syria is next door to Libya”. Thankfully no-one involved in the talks will give a “flying fudge”about what he thinks or says.
My sympathies lie with the UnHerd editorial staff who are surely having to cope with an avalanche of derogatory comments about David Lammy (including my own).
Oh, you don’t like him?
Every extra day of war adds fresh cadavers and destruction. It will not weaken Russia’s resolve. Those who wish to continue the war and counter-attack should be sent to the front lines.
Meanwhile, war pigs should answer widows and orphans why dady is dead.
It’s no bad thing if the cadavers are Russian though.
Watch out for the thought police. If you replaced ‘Russian’ with ‘people of a certain religion’ they’d be barging in your front door in an instant. Oh wait…. maybe Russophobia isn’t a hate crime?
I suspect that the EU countries will have zero influence on what happens in 2025 – as will the EU Commission.
It was a crime for the West to not hold Ukraine to the Minsk Accords, and it was a crime for the West to tell Ukraine to reject the Istanbul Agreement in April 2022.
The destruction of Ukraine is at their door.
And once again, Henry Kissinger comes to mind.. Who do I call in Europe when there is a crisis….Maybe now is time to form that EU Army and station troops in Ukraine… or maybe just talk to Putin and seek to cut a deal. Not the preferred outcome but reality seldom is
Reality’s a b***h, isn’t it.
This could and should have been over in the spring of 2022.
Europe is failing Ukraine by behaving weakly. In terms of Russian cessation there are just two ways Putin responds: to weakness he continues being the bully; to strength he pulls back. Europe has shown craven weakness and the end result will be that Putin gets what he wants. As for Ukraine, Europe will pretend to have been the saviour, while Putin will crow, and the Ukrainians will feel thoroughly bitter.
Of course, not everything is going Russia’s way. Certainly the blowing up a Russian war criminal in the doorway of his Moscow apartment is a welcome development.