Main Edition
US
FR
November 1, 2024 - 3:00pm
Professor John Mearsheimer has predicted that Americans would fight a war with China if the latter country invades Taiwan.
In a new interview with UnHerd, the international relations scholar reiterated his concerns about escalating tensions between China and the US, as well as America’s strategic interest in preventing Chinese hegemony in East Asia. “I think that [Americans] would fight and die to defend Taiwan,” he said. “And I hope it doesn’t come to that, but I think it is important for the United States to make sure that China does not acquire Taiwan.”
Mearsheimer later dismissed concerns that there would be no public support for American boots on the ground. “The US government will go to great lengths to manipulate the discourse on what is going on in ways that present China as a mortal threat,” he said, adding that he would also support the US militarily defending Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
In his 2001 book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, Mearsheimer critiqued the US policy of engagement with China. He argued that the country’s economic rise would greatly enhance its military might, which it would then use to dominate northeast Asia, resulting in an adversarial relationship between China and the US.
During the interview with UnHerd‘s Freddie Sayers, Mearsheimer revisited those predictions, concluding that the liberal conventional wisdom at the beginning of the millennium, which he calls the “unipolar moment”, was essentially wrong. “The United States was pursuing a policy of engagement toward China, which was designed to help China grow economically,” he said. “My argument at the time was that if China grew economically, it would translate that economic might into military might, and it would try to dominate East Asia.”
Mearsheimer is best known for his theory of offensive realism, which asserts that relations between states are anarchic and driven primarily by power, not morality. He has previously opposed American military interventions, including the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and more recently US support for Ukraine and Israel. However, he views China as a greater threat to US power and is therefore more hawkish toward the country.
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeI think Mearsheimer is right about a lot of things. I certainly believed that China would become more liberal if we opened up trade – the whole idea that countries with McDonald’s restaurants would not go to war with each other. That is pretty naive in retrospect.
But the idea of boots on the ground in Taiwan is horrifying. There would be zero support for this. It’s also important to remember that a large segment of Taiwanese people – maybe even 40% – are in favour of rejoining China.
In some ways, we simply need to outlast all these warhawks. It seems to me that a lot of these guys are really frickin old. Xi Jinping is 71 years old, Putin is 78, Biden is 102.
I’m not sure Xi Jinping is a warhawk. He has built a strong military, that’s true, and we should be wary of him. People with strong militaries tend to use them. (As we saw with the United States under George W. Bush.)
But I think John Mearsheimer is a false prophet, preaching things as though they are the word of God when they are merely one man’s musings. Better to treat his warnings as possible rather than a sure thing.
I too agree with Mearsheimer in the main. I also think he’s right on this.
The USA cannot allow China to take Taiwan or it is finished in the Pacific. I don’t doubt that could be sold to the US people…because it’s true.
I can’t quite see it that way. Do you think China threatens America’s allies South Korea or Japan? I don’t.
Taiwan is not like Ukraine, an independent country. The US and 190 other countries agree that Taiwan is already part of China. It’s like Hong Kong. China taking over Taiwan would change nothing in geopolitics. It’s already baked in.
I was a bit unspecific there I’m afraid. I mean if China takes Taiwan by military means.
If it was “agreed” then the USA can do nothing.
No, you were clear on your point. It seems I was unclear on mine. I am drawing a contrast between the war in Ukraine and a possible war in Taiwan. The United States has refused to fight in the war against Russia to support the independence of Ukraine. I don’t think the United States would fight in a war against China to support the independence of Taiwan.
Why? The world recognized Ukraine as a sovereign nation that Russia invaded without cause. By contrast, the world (with a few exceptions) considers Taiwan not to be a sovereign nature but to be part of “one China”. (The few exceptions are Belize, Eswatini, Guatemala, Haiti, Marshall Islands, Palau, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Tuvalu, and Nauru.) Even the United States and the United Nations agree that Taiwan is part of one China, and have for decades.
I can’t understand these sophists who try to argue that Taiwan is not part of the People’s Republic of China. It’s philosophically as untenable as the Doctrine of the Trinity, that there are three Gods but at the same time only one God. So if China were to invade Taiwan, I don’t think that anyone could take that as meaning that China was a threat to any other countries in the region.
Even isolating Russia and finding alternatives to most of its energy exports caused great problems. Even today Russia continues to ship out natural gas to Europe. Going to war with China and trying to find alternatives to what it provides the world would be much, much, much harder. I think the idea that the United States would defend Taiwan by sending its military to fight and die there is a fantasy, a nightmare. There is no reason for the US to do that.
The future of Taiwan is like the current U.S. presidential race. Best guesses aside, no one has a clue what is going on. At least in the West.
I just don’t see China invading Taiwan. I guess it could happen. But an economic blockade seems more likely, if anything. A blockade could be bloodless, whereas an invasion would be bloody, and could easily spiral into a world war.
What surprises me is the American policy of strategic ambiguity. Who thought that one up? The United States has long taken the position that Taiwan is not an independent country, but a part of China. So has the rest of the world. We should honor that.
“I think that [Americans] would fight and die to defend Taiwan,” he said. “
Not sure about that:
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/us-military-draft-2669344498/
‘SSS is experiencing a significant decline in registrations by 18-year-old men. In 2020, the registration rate for 18-year-old men nationwide was 61.8%, today it is just 39.9%,” the agency reports.’
“relations between states are anarchic and driven primarily by power, not morality”
That is a new western country ideas! Not thousands year old countries!
He confuses what we think vs what others think.
China can wait like Hong Kong affair…they have long term strategy not impulsive like baby aged USA.