Despite hopes for improved Sino-American relations under Joe Biden, his administration doubled down on Trump’s line. Yet Trump’s approach differed in principle from that of his White House successor. The Democratic Party justified its China policy on the grounds to preserve a “rules-based liberal order” — the same values once cited to advocate open trade with China.

However, an ideologically charged approach to relations between the two superpowers left Biden’s administration with little margin for actual diplomacy. Where the President called Xi Jinping a “dictator” after their summit in San Francisco last year, which was supposed to be a moment of rapprochement, Trump’s interest-based approach could find more space for transactionalism.

The former president showed in Chicago that a tough line on trade with China would be the most likely course of action if he regains the White House, but he is open to negotiating concessions. Geopolitical risk analyst Marko Papic noted that even during his first term, Trump didn’t envision an endless trade war with China. Instead, his strategy was to leverage a tough approach on trade to negotiate a Plaza Accord-like agreement, aiming to recalibrate the economic relationship between the two nations.

Despite talk of decoupling, the US and China remain deeply interconnected economically and may be reaching a point where negotiation seems feasible. Western tariffs on China have had an effect and, after the Covid-19 pandemic and a series of domestic economic challenges, Beijing might be more open to dialogue than it was six years ago. Trump’s goal wouldn’t be economic isolationism, but instead attracting investment and manufacturing to the US, redrawing the flow of the global economy with America instead of China at the centre.

This is easier said than done, though. There will be opposition to the approach from within the US, not only from Democrats and the national security establishment but also from GOP hawks. Indeed, a tough stance on China is the only existing bipartisan consensus in Washington. On the other hand, Beijing might not be able to meet Trump’s demands.

In any case, a full reversal of Sino-American trade relations is unlikely, and doesn’t seem to be Trump’s ultimate goal anyway. American manufacturing suffers from trade imbalances with China, and addressing that concern will remain a top priority of any White House administration. Any trade agreement that Trump crafts with Beijing will look more like a truce than a peace deal, but that may prove good enough.

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Miquel Vila is a political consultant specialising in international affairs. He is also the executive director of the Catalonia Global Institute.

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