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September 10, 2024 - 9:00pm
Kamala Harris is projected to perform significantly worse among black and Hispanic voters compared to Joe Biden in 2020, according to a new Focaldata poll.
Support for the Democrats has declined from 91% to 81% among black voters, and from 64% to 56% among Hispanic voters compared to the 2020 election. The findings come shortly after a widely publicised New York Times/Siena poll, which found Donald Trump one point ahead of the current Vice President.
The new polling undermines any expectations that Harris, a woman of colour, will naturally win over non-white voters. Democrats’ longstanding dominance with black and Hispanic voters has been waning over the past decade amid a broader political realignment, as Trump and the newly populist-branded GOP win over low-education and low-income voters. Shortly before Biden stepped out of the race this summer, Trump was polling at 30% among black voters, a historic high for a GOP candidate.
The trend has been even more striking among Hispanic voters. Trump’s statements on immigration and the border have dominated each of his campaigns, but he has nonetheless performed well with Hispanic voters. Trump won 28% of the Hispanic vote in 2016, a performance comparable to past GOP candidates. But in 2020 he won 32% of the Hispanic vote, and he’s currently polling at around 40% among this demographic.
Economic concerns and immigration remain front of mind for voters across the board, the Focaldata poll found, and Trump is outperforming Harris on each of those issues. These policy areas also dominated in 2020, but the importance of racial issues to most voters has declined. Racial and ethnic inequality, for example, was a top issue for 52% of voters in 2020, but that number has since fallen to 37%.
Trump is slated to win the upcoming election in the new poll, winning swing states Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all of which swung for Biden in 2020. Harris is expected to win the popular vote by 1.6 percentage points, and Democrats are on track to retake the House of Representatives, according to Focaldata.
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SubscribePolls. Meh.
Yeah, I wouldn’t trust the polls. They are rarely correct these days, and probably incorporate all sorts of bias.
Both communities are socially conservative and immigrants are the most critical of illegal immigration, knowing what it is to get in line and achieve a successful application. This trend was already in thrall under Biden. Trump just needs to keep kicking the ball, not the player – hard for the Democrats to defend either their economic policies or the border and Trump’s most recent advertising campaigns are doing this job well. In my time zone we won’t know how the first debate went until the morning. Trump perfectly capable of throwing it away and it’s his to lose.
Don’t worry. Trump now says that immigrants eat pets. Like Fido and Fluffy. Keep them inside!
Trump is doing some OK work for the conservative movement anyway, placing the emphasis on pro-life for Catholic Americans. It would seem to me that the black vote is heavily split on gender lines.
It’s often mentioned, and it might be wrong to think this, but I often wonder why someone with a Hispanic background would automatically vote for someone who has a similar skin colour.
I have closely followed presidential races since I was a teenager in the Seventies. I’m a news junkie. That said, I have never heard of Focaldata. The black voters who have turned to Trump are mainly men. Same with Hispanic voters. What they don’t understand is that Project 2025, which will be enacted if Trump wins, raises taxes for those making under $100,000. Black and Hispanic Trump voters will find that Head Start will disappear, which means that millions of children will be without childcare and early education. Also in line to get axed is Title I. Again, mostly black and Hispanic children will suffer along will tens of thousands of teachers who will lose their jobs. If their children mean anything to these men, they should rethink their votes. (Oh, and Project 2025 will lower taxes for the rich and corporations. Just like when Trump was in office.
None of this is true.