Do the Tories have a gambling problem?

We’re used to election gambles — David Cameron rolling the dice on a European referendum, Ed Miliband deciding it was a good idea to pose beside a massive metaphor for his own political demise — but this is something else. After two Tory candidates have been investigated over betting on the date of July’s general election, and party social media managers have been compelled to delete an ill-judged attack ad featuring a roulette wheel and asking the public not to “bet” on Labour, more evidence has emerged about the Conservatives’ gambling problem.

Excl: Here’s what happens if you scrape Betfair data for bets on a July election.

This graph cuts off at the end of 21 May, the day before Sunak announced the election.

There’s a flood of bets that day – before Rishi formally told the cabinet and stood in Downing Street. pic.twitter.com/AfKyzAbDBQ

— Jim Waterson (@jimwaterson) June 20, 2024

Journalist Jim Waterson has unearthed data from bookmaker Betfair which suggests that on 21 May, there was a significant spike in bets placed on a July election date. That’s the day before Rishi Sunak publicly called a general election, and apparently when he told Tory insiders about his plans. All above board, no doubt.