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Why South Africa shrugs at the mutant strain Towards the back of the vaccine queue, the nation has plenty to worry about

Herd immunity is a long way off in South Africa. Credit: Darren Stewart/Gallo Images via Getty Images

Herd immunity is a long way off in South Africa. Credit: Darren Stewart/Gallo Images via Getty Images


January 8, 2021   6 mins

It was always going to be a dice, going home to Cape Town for the holidays. But, then, it was also always going to be a dice staying: the British situation could deteriorate, or the South African one might. As it happened, both did. Two vastly different nations, united by a Mutant Strain.

Three days after Christmas, at around 7pm, President Cyril Ramaphosa performed his version of Boris Johnson’s code red speeches: the ornate briefing room, the national flag, the fatherly tone of a GP proffering a late stage cancer diagnosis.

The situation had devolved, he announced. Rates were rising. Hospitals were filling up. Effective immediately, bars would close. There would be a national curfew of 9pm, and all the beaches would be closed. Alcohol, it almost went without saying, would be banned again. Only this time, to beat the bootleggers, the transportation of alcohol would be banned along with it.

South Africans largely shrugged. Every country wraps Covid around its national character, and here there is little of that John Bull spirit, of Magna Carta and “on whose authority”. In a perverse sense, it makes the whole experience much more doable — without the grinding cognitive dissonance of Brits begrudging every fresh filing down of their liberties.

Here, recent memory is more of the Native Beer Act, of dry Sundays and the rolling curfews of the 1980s State Of Emergency. Freedom may be hymned publicly, but the reigning ANC is at heart merely a different kind of corporatist state to the National Party that preceded it, with the same fetish for public ownership, the same centralising tendencies. What it lacked, till now, was the same cold steel of authoritarianism. Covid may have decisively changed that.

In March, the country had the luxury of a few weeks’ notice as to what was about to hit. Back then, it seemed obvious that Africa would be the hindmost that the devil took. Countries that were a virtual fiefdom of health NGOs, with the globe’s highest HIV rates, would be the driest tinder. The world wished the continent luck, and waved it goodbye.

Only, it didn’t turn out that way.

For a start, Ramaphosa was decisive and bold, as were many of the continent’s leaders. Nigeria was already screening airport passengers in February. Rwanda closed its frontiers on 19 March. South Africa would be put into strict lockdown, and the response would be overseen by a panel of medical advisers: SAGE, but with some direct authority.

A big gamble, for a place where there were no Rishi Bucks falling from heaven. Britain’s AAA credit rating means it can still defer its debt reckoning. But since South Africa was downgraded to junk in 2019, it has had to balance its books carefully. Eventually, a relief grant was settled upon for those left unemployed. It would be R350 a month. That’s £17. Not a typo.

But what had seemed like a Western luxury good, lockdown, did seem to work. By 20 June, only 1,877 deaths had been recorded, in a country of 57 million. And despite comprising a billion people, the continent as a whole made up only 4% of global fatalities. Even now, 195 million-strong Nigeria sits at just 1,324 deaths. Back then, people began talking about “the African Paradox”. In township slums that made real distancing impossible, the question became: why weren’t people dying?

“A young population” was one obvious answer. It’s hard to reach the average age of a fatality — 82 — when life expectancy is 63. But even infection rates remained persistently low.

In part, it seemed that this was because of early and forceful government action. In South Africa, borders were shut totally until October, and even now, entry is provisional on a PCR test, special travel insurance, and notification of abode. Britain did none of this. The same strictures also apply internally. Right now, key roads between the nine provinces are subject to police roadblocks. Passengers are temperature checked. The hot ones are immediately PCR tested.

In a land of cheap labour, many shops have employed staff to spritz every patron’s hands as they enter. Outdoor masks are compulsory: a measure about as scientifically useful as throwing your shoes at the sky to dislodge the clouds, but one that sets a tone, constantly drawing the bead of danger back to the front of the public mind.

This fit of decisiveness has come with some positive consequences. Hotheaded Police Minister Bheki Cele was mighty impressed, back in April, at how endemic burglary rates had tumbled thanks to the simple expedient of imprisoning everyone in their homes. On New Year’s Eve, the southern hemisphere’s biggest hospital, Chris Hani Baragwanath, received precisely zero trauma patients. A minor miracle.

Sometimes it seems as though South Africans themselves have been stunned by their sheer compliance. The long arm of the law has always felt stunted here. Without the dense norms of Europe, people tend to just do what they feel. Yet now, a full hour before curfew, the suburbs are tumbleweed. Could it be that this country is suddenly falling into a mesmerism of law abiding? That something coltish is being tamed?

Deep down, the rule of law is nothing written down so much as a feeling: the uneasy sense that you will be made to answer, somewhere, somehow. Covid has demanded an unprecedented degree of surveillance. In the same way that Peter Hitchens is right when he argues that masks are symbols of assent to government policy, the pandemic has served to re-frame the kinds of people who have lived entire lives beyond the aegis of bureaucracy as being subjects of the state. This year, even the goatherds of KwaZulu have had to interact with the man from the ministry of mask-face-space.

As Aris Roussinos points out, state infrastructure and state competence are seldom correlated: the UK has all the gear and no idea. South African infrastructure is patchy, state competence is positively holey. But there is another quality beyond that, which comes into play in rare moments like these, when all the pieces are chucked up anew. It’s the question of what ordinary citizens actually perceive “common sense” to be — how the national character reacts to setbacks.

With far fewer resources, South Africa kept its exam system going through lockdown. In November, school leavers wrote their finals. The marking emphasis has been on maintaining standards, so that learners will have an equally valid qualification. Compare that to the quivering heap of cancellations and grade inflations that has slithered through British schooling like The Blob.

But all good things must pass. This week, the African Paradox resolved itself via an infection spike that is almost double that of the previous mid-year peak, and still climbing. Ambulance drivers are waiting eight hours to discharge their cargo. There are rumours of an oxygen shortage.

As it happens, our new wave also blows up what you might call the Ivor Cummins theory — that, as a respiratory disease, Covid-19 tracks winter very closely — which was sort of borne out by Covid’s return in the Northern hemisphere. Here it’s braai weather every day, yet the bug rolls remorselessly on. Increasingly, it feels as though Covid’s favourite victim is master-narratives. As we stagger into year two, it’s as if we now know less about the nature of our enemy.

Yet still almost none of the chatter here is about the “Mutant Strain”. In England, so far as I can gather, the Mutant Strain practically has its own talk show, Matt Hancock’s constant companion. But in SA, the government still has a measure of trust on the issue of the pandemic, and a huge majority in Parliament. The need to soft-soap each fresh lockdown to the public is absent. Mutancy or otherwise remains only a footnote to what’s playing out.

After all, why worry about an incrementally different transmission rate when there is still no finishing line in sight? In the vaccine bidding wars, Ramaphosa’s administration was reluctant to put multiple chips on the roulette table by laying down non-refundable deposits for various pharmaceutical trials. So it now finds itself at the back of the queue. For 2021, the aim is to vaccinate 67% of the population (to reach “herd immunity”). Even that can feel optimistic. An ANC administration that coined its own word for a crooked procurement contractor — tenderpreneur — will have to deploy all of its decisive authoritarianism to get that long-awaited vaccine distributed, and none of its talents at graft.

Of course, if there isn’t a more rapid vaccine rollout, then there will be time enough for the appearance of The Mutant Son Of The Mutant Strain, and so it could roll endlessly on, into 2022 and beyond in a kind of poverty trap.

In another sense, the finishing line was only ever the starting line to a new set of dominoes tumbling. In October, as economic activity finally surged back to life, so too did the rolling blackouts that have plagued the country for a decade. Once, we exported electricity to the continent. Now, years of chronic under-investment have crippled the power grid.

It was a reminder that, in fact, South Africa teeters between twin abysses. No one could really forget that, with a 28% unemployment rate going into the crisis — a worse figure than under Apartheid —  it has effectively added a nose dive to a nose dive. Through the pandemic, every state has had to find a pax between the economy and public health. Few others illustrate that dilemma quite so well, of how the two can become locked in a downward spiral.


Gavin Haynes is a journalist and former editor-at-large at Vice.

@gavhaynes

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Johnny Sutherland
Johnny Sutherland
3 years ago

Have about 15 million upvotes for this Outdoor masks are compulsory: a measure about as scientifically useful as throwing your shoes at the sky to dislodge the clouds

Fraser Bailey
Fraser Bailey
3 years ago

Yes, I too thought that was a very good line. Of course, it won’t stop governments around the world making it mandatory, because always and everywhere we are ruled by the insane.

Lesley van Reenen
Lesley van Reenen
3 years ago

I must take issue here. The only real lockdown in South Africa is and has been one of freedom of movement, lockdown of middle classes and the economy. By far the bulk of the population could not follow lockdown protocols because of living conditions. The country was initially locked down far too early and even with the draconian lockdown, the virus did what viruses do… it gathered momentum and followed an epidemic curve. The only thing now in doubt is the seasonality of these curves and what makes some countries seasonal and others not…. something that Panda is now looking at

Fraser Bailey
Fraser Bailey
3 years ago

I was going to say that this was an unusually informative and entertaining piece by GH’s standards, but you appear to have instantly refuted much of his argument.

Lesley van Reenen
Lesley van Reenen
3 years ago
Reply to  Fraser Bailey

Well, I live here! The only people supporting the lockdowns are quite a lot of vocal people with jobs/money in the bank, food on the table and the inability to read and think critically about the impact of lockdowns on livelihoods and futures. More and more people are being pushed into poverty and uncertainty on a daily basis and it is a terrible thing to witness.

I am not against certain targetted measures, but lockdowns – no. Further destruction of the economy – no. The government started with good intentions and since then have bumbled their way from one stupid decision to another – all the while stealing the Covid relief money which would have aided targetted measures.

Fraser Bailey
Fraser Bailey
3 years ago

‘The only people supporting the lockdowns are quite a lot of vocal people with jobs/money in the bank, food on the table and the inability to read and think critically about the impact of lockdowns on livelihoods and futures.’

No different to the UK, US and everywhere else. I happen to be one of those with enough money in the bank to last for years, and a soaring share portfolio. Moreover, I can work from home . However, I have the ability to read and think critically about the impact of these vicious and (largely) unnecessary lockdowns on millions of other people.

Lesley van Reenen
Lesley van Reenen
3 years ago
Reply to  Fraser Bailey

True, but even more immoral and stupid here because you can immediately witness the effect of the lockdowns and not have to ‘figure out’ that the health of the economy eventually affects the health of the people.

Jack Daniels
Jack Daniels
3 years ago

He also seemed to leave out that the government using covid as an excuse, loaned about £25 billion from international institutions and then proceeded to allow all their friends and family to loot the money while the population was under lock down and the Democratic processes, checks and balances of the country were suspended for the pandemic.

Also add to the government banning of both cigarettes and alcohol in the first lock down which lead to a black market, which was largely controlled and operated by the government and their crony’s while removing much needed taxes from the revenue services .. South Africa is basically run by a mafia that really couldn’t give a balls bag about its population and has used the covid crisis as a non stop money making gimmick that all South Africans are going to pay for in the end..

typical limousine liberals are always more impressed with words than the outcome..Of course been a Vice reporter he must have nearly wet himself with excitement when he heard that most of the business rescue and funds that were actually handed out to businesses were handed out on a racial ownership basis which excluded the white and Indian minorities letting those businesses fail, and also opening another looting opportunity for the ANC big whigs and their families, of those minorities businesses class suicided for social engineering purposes 70-90% of their employees were black..

Robin Taylor
Robin Taylor
3 years ago

Also, I’m not sure the reference to a “Mutant Strain” is particularly helpful. This term is starting to appear across MSM but I have yet to see an article referencing the scientific evidence on which it is based. Interesting that the New & Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) met on 18 Dec 2020, attended by Neil Ferguson among others, and talked up the dangers of the new UK variant without providing experimental data to support the claims. The weakness of NERVTAG’s assertions have been exposed by Vincent Racaniello in his YouTube video “SARS-CoV-2 UK variant: Does it matter?” on 21 December 2020. I recommend anyone with 25 mins spare to watch it or, if short on time, watch from 15 mins in.

It’s important because language matters. “Mutant Strain” sounds frightening – and I’m sure our Governments would not want us to be frightened.

Carlo Dallapiccola
Carlo Dallapiccola
3 years ago

“Seasonality” of a respiratory disease looks different for regions with different climates, as observed in the original Hope-Simpson discussion. In the zones nearer the tropics, with less pronounced seasonal variations, periodicity, or “waves,” are still seen, but are spaced and shaped differently. This is already seen with COVID in e.g. the sunbelt of the US v/s the northern states.

Murray Clarke
Murray Clarke
3 years ago

COVID doesn’t choose victims at random and the horse has well and truly bolted. I can’t understand why we are failing to protect the very clear subset of society at risk while throwing a blanket over everyone and failing at that too!!

Jack Daniels
Jack Daniels
3 years ago
Reply to  Murray Clarke

COVID doesn’t choose victims at random, it’s an airborne respiratory disease, randomness is the only way you can get it

Lindsay Gatward
Lindsay Gatward
3 years ago

So obvious that Masks and Lockdown save no lives because the results are the same in the end regardless of the severity or absence of imposition – But also obvious they are an absolute delight to authoritarians everywhere.

J J
J J
3 years ago

This article makes the mistake of believing the critical factor in determining infection and death rates is government action. Its not. They key factors are the proportion of over 60s, population density, cross immunity from prior infections, mobility patterns, pollution levels and Vitamin D levels (sun exposure and fish diets).

Africa is not impacted by most of these factors, Europe and particularly the UK is heavily impacted.

The UK has higher rates of dementia than most African countries. Is that because African states have more decisive action and better policies in relation to dementia than the UK (and France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands and Italy)?

I’m afraid we are again indulging in national masochism. Not only are we all racist, sexist, greedy, evil capitalist pigs. But it turns out we are also ravingly incompetent and indecisive.

Mark Corby
Mark Corby
3 years ago
Reply to  J J

Spot on! Every dog has his day and it is blatantly obvious that ‘we’ have had ours!

For myself, it was fun, for my grandchildren not so.

Joerg Beringer
Joerg Beringer
3 years ago

Raving about South Africa’s response might be justified, if close by Tanzania did not exist.

Jean Redpath
Jean Redpath
3 years ago

South Africa shrugs at the mutant strain? Really? That’s not the reality. The reality is that 2.4 million jobs were lost in the first hard lockdown. Universities are closed, having struggled through with with online instruction from March until December, and will only open in April. Schools were closed and when they opened, children only attended only a few days a week. Final school year results – usually available in December – are still pending.

The barely surviving tourism sector which was raising its head has been shattered by the recent closures of all beaches, rivers, water bodies in hotspots (which are mostly in tourist areas) in the middle of summer, and most restaurants are not bothering to open with a 9pm-6am curfew and no alcohol sales. People are jobless and going hungry. There is no additional employment via hand sanitizer as suggested – this is simply the security guard who now also wields sanitizer. Businesses are surviving only by retrenching large numbers of staff.

The reality is that the streets are relatively empty of the middle classes because so many more (of the middle class) are getting sick than happened in the “1st wave”. Delayed economic impacts are starting now also being felt by this class.

The meme of “low Africa deaths” in the first wave … the rate of death per 100 000 in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, was higher than that recorded in New York City. Nothing low about that. In most parts of Africa, we will never know the true extent of cases and deaths, so to hypothesize about “low” deaths makes no sense.

Even in relatively developed South Africa, the death data is showing far greater number of deaths than Covid-deaths and since they follow the characteristic rise and fall, it seems likely that a significant proportion are Covid-related.

Having said that, the rise and fall is only a fraction of the 200 000-odd additional deaths per year South Africa saw through untreated HIV/AIDS in the mid-2000s.

In places like the DRC, South Sudan, Malawi, it is possible that the virus may sweep through, and … if you didn’t know to look for it, you might not have seen it (yet)?

The natural death data seems to show a 4-month pause between start and finish of the “waves” per area. Some areas are already done with their 2nd wave. Others, unfortunately some of the most populous areas, are only getting started. Yet so far hospitals in 2nd wave areas seem to have managed.

It is indeed interesting that the country was a few weeks behind Europe, and now seems to be a few weeks ahead, in terms of waves. Without more granular data it is hard to know what is a 2nd wave and what is a delayed 1st wave.

There have been court cases against the most nonsensical of restrictions, some lost, some won, including the ban on tobacco sales. The activist left has and will make a noise about lack of plans for vaccines and perhaps about human rights abuses caused by overzealous enforcement, but is unlikely to challenge lockdown orthodoxy.

Jack Daniels
Jack Daniels
3 years ago

Could it be that this country is suddenly falling into a mesmerism of law abiding? That something coltish is being tamed? “-
probably not, there were 2 beheadings in broad daylight last week and the murder and rape rate are higher than they have ever been( probably the extra 3 million people who lost jobs during lockdown one got a bit of time on their hands), the real scary part is that we always thought that coltish behavior would protect us from a malevolent government, turns out that our people are as weak and bowed in front of their corrupt government as their neighbors in Zimbabwe are to ZANUPF..

Peter KE
Peter KE
3 years ago

Interesting article, especially the fatality levels even if it is a younger population.

Jean Redpath
Jean Redpath
3 years ago
Reply to  Peter KE

My detailed comment on this was flagged as spam and then entirely removed when I identified it as “not spam.”

During the first peak, more people per 100 000 died in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, of known Covid than in New York city during their first peak. We only know this because this area is relatively well-serviced in terms of testing and capable health facilities – and people willing to seek treatment. The “meme” of low African deaths is based on the data only – which depends on states being able to identify and count Covid deaths.

It is entirely possible that Covid might cause many deaths yet pass through undetected in places where testing and health facilities are very poor. Indeed in Malawi people are talking about old people dying, yet the official data counts only a few Covid deaths.

nick harman
nick harman
3 years ago

We may be in a bit of a mess here in the UK, but few people are listening to Ivor Cummins who is nothing but a snake oil salesman who usually preys on corporations.