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One of the world’s foremost prognosticators (the one who predicted all the chaos of 2020) has made another rather ballsy claim: it’s the US, not Russia, that is closer to breakdown. In an interview with the FT, economic historian Peter Turchin argued that war with Ukraine (“external pressures”) had actually “unified” Russia, leaving the US in a more perilous position. In addition, because the ratio of workers to vacancies in Russia has improved since the war, the chances of a macro-violent outbreak (civil war, revolution, political fragmentation etc) have been reduced.
Turchin goes on to say that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed uprising was “a good stress test — everybody was against him.” Therefore, “without doubt, the United States is in a much more perilous state right now.” Fingers crossed that the US has a “good” stress test on 5 November…
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SubscribeWell. Saying an autocratic government is more stable than a democratic one is arguably like boldly claiming the earth is round. As long as the autocrat is reasonably competent, autocratic governments tend towards stability over any given time frame. They only reach maximum instability during and immediately after transition periods when a new autocrat is establishing his power and authority. As long as Putin is alive, the assertion is likely correct, but should he die unexpectedly, I expect there’s a fifty/fifty chance of Russia descending into chaos quite quickly regardless of current public opinion polls.
Looking at Putin in the depths of the Valdai swamps, I would not say that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed uprising was OK