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August 9, 2023 - 7:00am
A new arena of conflict is opening up in Ukraine’s struggle against Russian aggression. Attacks on Russian vessels by unmanned sea drones threaten to disrupt Moscow’s commercial operations in the Black Sea. Following Russia’s withdrawal from a UN-brokered grain deal, the attacks also risk causing irreparable damage to perceptions of Kyiv’s cause among non-Western powers.
One attack, on Russian oil tanker Sig off Crimea, demonstrated Kyiv’s new resolve to strike commercial vessels. The Sig and its owner are under US sanctions for transporting fuel to Russian forces in Syria. Meanwhile, Ukraine warned that Russian ports on the Black Sea coast should be considered “war risk” areas, and underlined this threat with an attack on a naval base near the major port city Novorossiysk. An advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has now declared that “everything the Russians are moving back and forth on the Black Sea are valid military targets.”
This may seem like a justified tit-for-tat move following Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal and its blockade on Ukrainian Black Sea exports. The Kremlin shows no compunction about destroying Ukraine’s economic infrastructure, so why should Kyiv hesitate to respond in kind?
Firstly, Ukrainian strikes on commercial vessels and threats to Russian ports – especially following recent drone strikes on Russian cities for which there is now “tacit recognition” of responsibility from Kyiv – complicate the moral narrative around the war. They may be necessary but, by putting civilian lives at risk, such steps raise questions about the good versus evil narrative which has been the precondition for Western support to date.
Further, by highlighting Ukraine’s eagerness to bring the war “to the territory of Russia“, such attacks will entrench opposition to supplies of longer-range weapons that could be used to strike deep inside Russian territory, as Germany faces strong international pressure to send Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv.
Then there is the problem of perceptions in non-Western countries. Novorossiysk is a key departure point for Russian oil shipments to Asia and Africa — which skyrocketed following the imposition of Western sanctions on Russian goods, with China, India, Singapore and Turkey all significantly ramping up imports from Russian Black Sea ports. Between 15-20% of Russian oil exports are transported through the Black Sea, and Novorossiysk accounts for 17% of the country’s total maritime trade. Exports of Russian oil to the EU from the port have collapsed, but Novorossiysk remains a hub for vital shipments of Kazakh crude to European refineries.
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SubscribeWhy would Ukraine worry about upsetting non western nations? Who apart from America, Britain and Europe has assisted them in any way against the invasion?
Surely the Russians disrupting the grain supplies would have a more dire effect on many poorer countries than Ukraines retaliation against the oil tankers?
“Who apart from America, Britain and Europe has assisted them in any way against the invasion?”
How did Ukraine – or those European nations who are suddenly so anti-war – help Iraq, Libya, or the Kurdish and Yemeni civilians being blasted by Western weapons.
And it’s a rhetorical question anyway. The Europeans, and their American masters, couldn’t care less about Africans starving to death because they wanted to play cold war.
The only question that matters is, how much would Europeans suffer from the rapid escalation in food grain and fertilizer inflation. And whether their civilian population would have the guts to question why trashing their economies and living standards was worth playing the American game.
A poor attempt at deflection I must say, one not really worth a retort
A poor attempt at deflection I must say, one not really worth a retort
“Who apart from America, Britain and Europe has assisted them in any way against the invasion?”
How did Ukraine – or those European nations who are suddenly so anti-war – help Iraq, Libya, or the Kurdish and Yemeni civilians being blasted by Western weapons.
And it’s a rhetorical question anyway. The Europeans, and their American masters, couldn’t care less about Africans starving to death because they wanted to play cold war.
The only question that matters is, how much would Europeans suffer from the rapid escalation in food grain and fertilizer inflation. And whether their civilian population would have the guts to question why trashing their economies and living standards was worth playing the American game.
Why would Ukraine worry about upsetting non western nations? Who apart from America, Britain and Europe has assisted them in any way against the invasion?
Surely the Russians disrupting the grain supplies would have a more dire effect on many poorer countries than Ukraines retaliation against the oil tankers?
“The Sig and its owner are under US sanctions for transporting fuel to Russian forces in Syria.”
How very interesting! And why should Russian forces in Syria NOT be supplied?
Or is the USA still belatedly trying to overthrow President Assad at the behest of the loathsome Saudis? No doubt using that hackneyed old excuse that they are ‘fighting terror’.*
(* ISIS or some other such phantom.)
‘
Russia was the only non Syrian participant in the war to fight ISIS.
The US still has troops quite illegally stationed there.
Don’t see any laws they’ve broken in any civilized nation..
The US invaded the place, an act of ‘aggressive war’ as it was defined at Nuremberg some years ago now.
We used to hang people for such behaviour.
The US invaded the place, an act of ‘aggressive war’ as it was defined at Nuremberg some years ago now.
We used to hang people for such behaviour.
Don’t see any laws they’ve broken in any civilized nation..
Russia never fought ISIS, except to take Palmyra as a publicity stunt.
The US and its allies defeated ISIS on both sides of teh border.
Fact.
Whilst the US ‘publicly stunt’ of overthrowing Mr Assad, at the behest of the Saudis and Israelis failed completely.
Whilst the US ‘publicly stunt’ of overthrowing Mr Assad, at the behest of the Saudis and Israelis failed completely.
The US still has troops quite illegally stationed there.
Russia never fought ISIS, except to take Palmyra as a publicity stunt.
The US and its allies defeated ISIS on both sides of teh border.
Fact.
In the long run, Saddam will fall. It’s just not a viable state.
And without Russian support, the rebels are already attacking again.
Just a matter of time.
He is called BASHAR not Saddam!
And he’s already won!
He is called BASHAR not Saddam!
And he’s already won!
Russia was the only non Syrian participant in the war to fight ISIS.
In the long run, Saddam will fall. It’s just not a viable state.
And without Russian support, the rebels are already attacking again.
Just a matter of time.
“The Sig and its owner are under US sanctions for transporting fuel to Russian forces in Syria.”
How very interesting! And why should Russian forces in Syria NOT be supplied?
Or is the USA still belatedly trying to overthrow President Assad at the behest of the loathsome Saudis? No doubt using that hackneyed old excuse that they are ‘fighting terror’.*
(* ISIS or some other such phantom.)
‘
The problem with Ukraine attacking Russian civilian ships is that eventually this may result in a massive Russian response. As it is, the Ukrainians have lost immeasurable number of men in their so-called counter-offensive which has proved to be a complete failure. One can poke the bear just so many times.
It’s a bloody stalemate. Ukraine is at best advancing very slowly -but the “mighty” Russians are much worse – stuck in a purely defensive mode, reliant on their defences, and self-evidently lacking the ability to advance against a smaller army with no air cover. Poor showing from the Russians
It would appear that the Russians are more keen to wipe out the Ukrainian army than to gain a few kilometres of land.
And the Ukrainians have proved happy to oblige so far.
It would appear that the Russians are more keen to wipe out the Ukrainian army than to gain a few kilometres of land.
And the Ukrainians have proved happy to oblige so far.
Oh, right, finally, “poke the bear…”
Sorry, there aren’t “five divisions of Siberian ski troops” just waiting to be committed. Most of the regular Russian Army is gone, and the regular Russian air force isn’t far behind.
So, if Putin hasn’t been able to manage a “massive response” for a year and a half, he won’t be able to now.
What he is doing recently is trying to replicate Surovikin’s Syrian strategy: bombing civilians, then using “a double tap” to get their rescuers. It has no military value, and won’t even cow the civilians.
But it’s all Putin has left.
It’s a bloody stalemate. Ukraine is at best advancing very slowly -but the “mighty” Russians are much worse – stuck in a purely defensive mode, reliant on their defences, and self-evidently lacking the ability to advance against a smaller army with no air cover. Poor showing from the Russians
Oh, right, finally, “poke the bear…”
Sorry, there aren’t “five divisions of Siberian ski troops” just waiting to be committed. Most of the regular Russian Army is gone, and the regular Russian air force isn’t far behind.
So, if Putin hasn’t been able to manage a “massive response” for a year and a half, he won’t be able to now.
What he is doing recently is trying to replicate Surovikin’s Syrian strategy: bombing civilians, then using “a double tap” to get their rescuers. It has no military value, and won’t even cow the civilians.
But it’s all Putin has left.
The problem with Ukraine attacking Russian civilian ships is that eventually this may result in a massive Russian response. As it is, the Ukrainians have lost immeasurable number of men in their so-called counter-offensive which has proved to be a complete failure. One can poke the bear just so many times.
So, the Ukrainians are doing something that might hurt the Russians economically, and might annoy people who have provided little to no support to the Ukrainians in their resistance to an illegal war? Exactly why should any non Russian partisan care?
Well, according to some it’ll only cause more aggression from the angry bear, and so they should lay down and take it like Leonardo DiCaprio…..
What is a legal war?
One proclaimed by Tony Blair Esq.
One proclaimed by Tony Blair Esq.
Thankfully the invasion of Niger being planned by those same Western countries supporting Ukraine is a perfectly legal war.
Well, according to some it’ll only cause more aggression from the angry bear, and so they should lay down and take it like Leonardo DiCaprio…..
What is a legal war?
Thankfully the invasion of Niger being planned by those same Western countries supporting Ukraine is a perfectly legal war.
So, the Ukrainians are doing something that might hurt the Russians economically, and might annoy people who have provided little to no support to the Ukrainians in their resistance to an illegal war? Exactly why should any non Russian partisan care?
“such steps raise questions about the good versus evil narrative which has been the precondition for Western support to date”
You mean yet another ‘narrative’ created by Western governments and parroted by their MSM lackeys. You can fool some of the people all of the time………
“such steps raise questions about the good versus evil narrative which has been the precondition for Western support to date”
You mean yet another ‘narrative’ created by Western governments and parroted by their MSM lackeys. You can fool some of the people all of the time………
When you have a war at this level of viciousness from the aggressor, it’s hardly surprising that the longer it goes on the more the victim country loses its cool and takes blind revenge. This happened with some of the Allied bombing raids in WW2. It’s easy to criticise from our comfy armchairs, but imagine being in the white heat of war for a year and a half. Most normal humans would not remain completely rational. You’re in a vortice of hatred and outrage. You no longer ‘think straight’.
Number of dead in Britain from German bombing raids over six years, 36000. Number of Europeans killed in Allied bombing raids ( including Italy and Northern France) , twenty times as many.
The Germans lacked a suitably large four engined bomber, unlike our good selves and the Americans.
Arguably why they won the war.
Kept the Luftwaffe from the front, then destroyed it. After that there was no chance.
Indeed, a big reason Russian was able to advance so easily in 1944.
Virtually all in the second half of the war.
The Germans lacked a suitably large four engined bomber, unlike our good selves and the Americans.
Arguably why they won the war.
Kept the Luftwaffe from the front, then destroyed it. After that there was no chance.
Indeed, a big reason Russian was able to advance so easily in 1944.
Virtually all in the second half of the war.
Number of dead in Britain from German bombing raids over six years, 36000. Number of Europeans killed in Allied bombing raids ( including Italy and Northern France) , twenty times as many.
When you have a war at this level of viciousness from the aggressor, it’s hardly surprising that the longer it goes on the more the victim country loses its cool and takes blind revenge. This happened with some of the Allied bombing raids in WW2. It’s easy to criticise from our comfy armchairs, but imagine being in the white heat of war for a year and a half. Most normal humans would not remain completely rational. You’re in a vortice of hatred and outrage. You no longer ‘think straight’.
Will depend on whether they can upscale this.
But attacks on tankers certainly make Russian naval defence difficult if not impossible. They can’t defend every tanker–AND support the ground forces at the same time.
Looks like the new Lord of the Black Sea will be Turkey.
Will depend on whether they can upscale this.
But attacks on tankers certainly make Russian naval defence difficult if not impossible. They can’t defend every tanker–AND support the ground forces at the same time.
Looks like the new Lord of the Black Sea will be Turkey.
BTW, how are Putin’s Hunger Games going?
Since half of Ukrainian grain already goes by alternate routes, not a disaster for Kyiv.
But combined with the heat wave, Putin’s plan is on track: there will be a dire famine next year, starving Africa most of all.
Hope everybody has given to the UN WFP.
Because of Putin, they will need it.
BTW, how are Putin’s Hunger Games going?
Since half of Ukrainian grain already goes by alternate routes, not a disaster for Kyiv.
But combined with the heat wave, Putin’s plan is on track: there will be a dire famine next year, starving Africa most of all.
Hope everybody has given to the UN WFP.
Because of Putin, they will need it.
Ukraine doesn’t have an unlimited number of sea-going drones carrying explosive charges. It should concentrate on sinking Russian warships.
Ukraine doesn’t have an unlimited number of sea-going drones carrying explosive charges. It should concentrate on sinking Russian warships.
They’ve already been invaded – little do they care about the BRICS
They’ve already been invaded – little do they care about the BRICS
There’s plenty of oil on the world markets to replace any unavailability of Russian oil.
Sssh, can’t say that – might annoy the Vlad-bots on here
Why…Russia is IRREPLACEABLE!
It makes….well…that is…it makes…er…
Tanks!
Or used to, anyway…
It produces the finest Ballet the world bar none!
Plus some outstanding literature which even you must be aware of?
What has the Ukraine ever done for ‘us’?
It produces the finest Ballet the world bar none!
Plus some outstanding literature which even you must be aware of?
What has the Ukraine ever done for ‘us’?
The oil Europeans are buying from India etc are from Russia. Just with a nice premium added.
Patently untrue.
The Indians and Chinese buy Russian oil at a large discount.
Patently untrue.
The Indians and Chinese buy Russian oil at a large discount.
Sssh, can’t say that – might annoy the Vlad-bots on here
Why…Russia is IRREPLACEABLE!
It makes….well…that is…it makes…er…
Tanks!
Or used to, anyway…
The oil Europeans are buying from India etc are from Russia. Just with a nice premium added.
There’s plenty of oil on the world markets to replace any unavailability of Russian oil.