Amid ongoing negotiations over the most modern tanks, there is at least more movement when it comes to the delivery of older weapons systems that still need to be repaired and refurbished. Yet even in that case, the first deliveries should not be expected before the summer or autumn. 

The issue is that Europe is yet to put forward a coherent strategy on how to deal with the Russian question, and Olaf Scholz’s hopes that Russia can in some form be brought back into the international community — a view he expressed in December of last year — is probably shared more widely behind closed doors than in public communications. The prospects of a long war are increasingly problematic, especially with more and more voices across the Atlantic taking on a critical tone regarding Washington’s continued support for Ukraine. 

The RAND Corporation, a leading think tank in the US, recently issued a study that attracted widespread attention, arguing that the United States should avoid “a long war”. Given that the US and Great Britain are responsible for the majority of military support for Ukraine, a change of direction in either of those two countries would severely impede the defence capabilities of not only of Kiev, but of Europe as a whole. As an editorial by the New York Times recently remarked, ‘Europe has missed the opportunity to step up its own defense, and the war has reinforced Europe’s military dependence on the US’.

This tension became even more obvious during the recent incident with the Chinese spy balloon, which highlights that, in the larger geopolitical game, China is the top priority for US policymakers. Further, at some point resources for the European theatre will have to be reduced in order to rebuild US deterrence vis-à-vis Beijing.

In light of these developments, there are understandable fears that the slow delivery of high-end weapons systems could coincide with reduced support from Washington, which remains the most crucial element in any defence strategy for Ukraine. This creates a moral as well as a political dilemma, especially in Western European capitals, where there is a simultaneous desire to support Ukraine and conclude the war. The problem is that Ukrainian victory, or indeed Russian defeat, is tricky to define. 

Without a clear set of goals, however, another tank scenario is unfolding, this time around the question of fighter jets. Once again, Chancellor Scholz is leading with a staunch no, but the question remains: for how long can he hold his nerve?