The much anticipated shakeout of the crypto market has finally arrived thanks to the breaking of the buck of two key stablecoins, USD Terra and USD Tether, that have long provided a vital “hard currency” funding pathway to the crypto economy.
Flagship coins from Bitcoin to Ethereum and XRP are down 30-40% in the week.
But rather than marking the end of crypto, as many are now convinced is the case, it’s better to view current events as an important evolutionary moment that can help the market switch to a more utility-focused phase. That means transforming from a speculative asset that delivers returns only when “number goes up” — i.e. when there are more buyers than sellers — to one more focused on generating cash-flows from the provision of useful services to the economy.
Such services could include everything from providing privacy to financial transactions to helping track energy savings or copyright claims.
Instead of being the death of the market, this might be more analogous to when internet stocks transitioned from their own speculative phase over the course of the 1990s to the practical deployment period of the 2000s, eventually paving the way for the successes of Amazon and Google.
Even so, the market must acknowledge some uncomfortable truths first. The key one is that some 95% of the market, or more, is probably worthless — largely the product of a ridiculously cheap funding environment driven by excessively loose central bank policy.
With the Fed’s 50 basis point rate rise last week, that era has brutally come to an end. The largely zero yielding world of cryptocurrencies was always going to be rocked by competition from positive-yielding fiat challengers.
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SubscribeOne of the better journalists at FT, glad to see you writing here.
“These include, to name just a few, the de-neutralisation of the dollar because of Russian sanctions, the rise of a multi reserve-currency world, growing authoritarianism, war, de-globalisation and the emergence of “friendly” and “unfriendly” trading counterparts. Many parts of the crypto world are well positioned to take these challenges on.”
This is where an explanation of how crypto could help here would be expected to be forthcoming.
It’s clear that crypto isn’t a hedge against either inflation (despite the artificial mining restrictions) or world events, but the opposite. I’m not seeing the utility.
“providing privacy to financial transactions” sounds remarkably like a euphemism for “money laundering”.
Pop a link up to your last bank statement then please Ian.
If you work for the taxman Stevie, I expect you already have it 🙂
Every invention has its dubious applications.
What is missing from this analysis is the bulwark crypto provides against ‘digital fiat money’ that is slowly being foisted upon the public. Digital dollars, euros, or yen can be turned off at will by the government. In this authoritarian cancel culture you can imagine even quite wealthy people (J K Rowling, Trump, etc.) being shut out of access to their funds by noxious political opponents. China is already far down this path. It leads to the most repressive society imaginable.
Long Bitcoin.
I think Bitcoin is digital.
I dunno. I’m putting my money in tulip bulbs, the market is rocketing and the supply limited
This article needs to distinguish between the utility of crypto currencies as a medium of exchange and as a form of saving. As a form of saving they are a greater fool investment – you give your money to one neighbour in the hope that another neighbour buys your digital asset. That depends on the availability of a succession of optimistic neighbours. The one certainty is that the money you gave away is not available to buy you out. As a medium of exchange the utility is in the mechanism of the blockchain which in the case of bitcoins is cumbersome, slow for secure payments in large sums, has risks on value fluctuations whilst transactions proceed and depends on a community of computers being turned on.
Indeed, I get the feeling that the unscrupulous list the capabilities of blockchain as though they were justifications for holding Bitcoin.