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Tensions simmer along the 2,100-mile-long border: a Chinese soldier and an Indian soldier stand guard at the Nathu La border crossing. (Photo: DIPTENDU DUTTA/AFP via Getty Images)
When the Dragon and the Elephant dance there’s always the danger that a lot of people could get hurt. The current military and diplomatic tango by the world’s two population giants has brought China and India closer to conflict than at any time in the past 50 years.
The troop movements that triggered the current crisis have been seen before: what’s different now is the construction of facts on the ground which, if left unchallenged, will become permanent and give one side a military advantage in a contested region over which they fought a war in 1962. The region is Aksai Chin. India says that despite it being controlled by China it is part of its Ladakh region; China counts it as part of its Xinjiang province. The flashpoints are along what is called the ‘Line of Actual Control’ — (LAC) as in the points at which Indian military control of Ladakh stops, and Chinese military control of Aksai Chin begins.
This line can be drawn on a map, but up at 17,000 feet above sea level shifting river flows and snow mean they are less clear — especially if you want them to be. New Delhi says that in early May an Indian Army patrol near Ladakh’s Pangong Lake was blocked by hundreds of Chinese soldiers operating across the LAC in contravention of a 1996 agreement to respect it. Punches were thrown, then stones, leading to injuries on both sides, but no shots were fired. The Chinese then set up camp, dug trenches, and began moving heavy equipment into an area the Indians say is up to 2½ miles inside the LAC.
Latest reports suggest that 5,000 soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army are now dug in, heavy artillery has arrived, and barracks are being built both near the lake and in the Galwan valley. In all there are five locations in Ladakh which have seen confrontations. India has responded by moving several thousand re-enforcements up to the Line of Actual Control.
Aksai Chin is not coveted for its beauty, mineral riches, or fertile soil: it’s a barren, mostly uninhabitable, freezing cold high plain, but it has attributes beloved of estate agents – commanding views, good transport links, and location, location, location.
From Beijing’s perspective India has been behaving aggressively, most notably by building roads to help its military crisscross the high mountain. The road which most concerns China is one which follows the LAC for several hundred miles and connects Indian military outposts. They have also built a new road to reach a military airstrip, which was reopened in 2008, and which has recently been upgraded to allow the Indian Air Force to land its Super Hercules (C-13OJ) aircraft thus boosting its ability to move men and equipment to the region at speed. The airstrip, in Daulat Beg Oldie, is often the only way to bring in supplies during the winter months.
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SubscribeWhile most of what Tim states may be facts on the ground, perhaps his deep rooted bias on “Hindu” slips through . In this piece, he has qualified the Indian govt as “Hindu” Nationalist BJP Govt. but has given no such encomiums to China or their opportunist cronie, Pakistan, who till yesterday used to swear by USA. In his view, again perhaps, both these governments/countries are saintly ones and do not deserve calling any names.
Tim, do get real and do not take on the soft targets but expose China & Pakistan for what they are, insidious and a blot on the face of this earth.
I think you’re being oversensitive, Ravi. This piece is very clearly critical of China.
One wonders whether the Chinese shopped Dominic Cummings to The Mirror, to take the British political establishment’s eye off the geopolitical ball, but of course they didn’t need to. Our second-rate politicians and gotcha-obsessed media don’t need any encouragement to ignore the important things in favour of partisan hysteria.
Don’t worry, Mr Trump has his eye on China, as off course, do the USN and their U-boats!
I thought the Aksai Chin region is in Tibet. I just checked Google Maps and it seems to be on the border with Xinjiang, but historically it was always Tibetan.
This sort of border skirmish has been going on between China and India for years, but it rarely gets reported.
What your article doesn’t explain is that China just took the Aksai Chin in the early 60s and, as it was uninhabited, India (apparently) didn’t notice. When Delhi objected the Chinese marched into Northern India but retreated before the vast Indian Army was able to respond; but they’d made their point.
China is expanding its empire and needs to be stopped. This is exactly how wars start.
Interesting article – always good to read different goings on.
Although not sure if it will come to anything as it’s in neither’s interest to fall out over something that is strategically irrelevant for both.
China needs ports – it’s hemmed in by potential threats & rivals on its main seaboard, which is why it’s pursuing a closer partnership with Pakistan.
Aksai Chin is over 1000 miles inland and access to and from it only goes deeper into Indian controlled territory. Same same for India. The region’s only strategic worth is as a bridge between the two nations, and if they’re at loggerheads that’s pointless.
I would imagine that both sides are playing out relatively minor military shenanigans to purely not lose any face domestically.
Typo Alert: “If China feels it can cement the new facts on the ground and maintain that record it will be tempted to reject compromise ” and that will leave India **will a very hard choice.”