“We’ve just driven, completely autonomously, into a new era of transport!” hailed Richard Lutz, head of German rail operator Deutsche Bahn late last year as one of his driverless buses successfully carried its first passengers along an eight-minute route.
We tend to ignore the good news, amid all the complaints about how driverless vehicles will cost working-class people – those who drive trucks, say, or buses for a living – their jobs. So let me remind you: self-driving technology will save hundreds of thousands of lives, re-invent public transport, reshape our cities, and even increase demand for cars, thereby creating jobs for those same working classes.
But the safety factor is the most important gain. And it’s hard to argue with the figures. American National Highway Safety Administration estimated in 2007 that about 94% of all fatal accidents involved some type of driver error. Eliminate those, and more than 36,000 lives would have been saved in 2017 in the US alone – that’s nearly 100 a day. Extending autonomous vehicle technology to EU nations and economically developed countries in the Pacific regions would save another 36-40,000 lives annually. Make the technology cheap enough to use worldwide, and more than 1 million people would be saved, each and every year.
Yes, self-driving cars have been involved in some highly publicised fatal accidents over the past year, but the current technology is by no means ready to be mass-marketed. The technology that ultimately becomes standard will certainly be more sophisticated than it is at present and the massive reduction in accidents caused by driver error will far outweigh the few crashes caused by software malfunction.
Almost as welcome is the fact that these cars will make traffic jams a thing of the past and massively reduce urban pollution. It would reinvent our public transport system. Currently, over 75% of all work commutes in the US and 62% of all car trips in the UK are made by solo drivers, which is hugely inefficient. The key to fixing this rests on an issue that managers of aeroplane fleets know well: ensuring that vehicles are as full as possible.
With the help of driverless technology, commuters could easily schedule trips in carpools whose schedules match theirs perfectly. And without there being a driver to pay, costs would be dramatically less than in today’s Uber economy. Buses, which in the US are all too often empty outside of rush hour, could also be reprogrammed. The effect would be dramatic. A recent OECD study found that replacing human-driven cars with on-demand, driverless vehicles could cut the number of cars on the road in a medium-sized city such as Lisbon by nearly 90%.
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