scIt has been suggested that by 2021, the centenary of the founding of the (southern) Irish State, there could be more Catholics than Protestants in Northern Ireland. The last census, in 2011, put the Protestant population at 48%, and Catholics at 45%, but figures from 2016 show that among those of working age 44% are Catholic and 40% Protestant.
Could a Catholic majority in Northern Ireland trigger a referendum on Irish unification? Perhaps. But whatever the fears, legislation banning religious conversions would inconceivable. Besides the march of secular liberalism, the history of both Ireland and mainland Britain provides no happy precedent for the regulation of religious belief.
Yet similar demographic fears in south and south-east Asia have fuelled exactly this legislative response. In 2015, Tarun Vijay, a respected author, social worker and journalist, and a member the Upper House of India’s parliament, argued that, “It is very important to keep the Hindus in majority in the country”, for Hindus had fallen to less than 80 per cent of the population for the first time in history, and, he argued, “We have to take measures to arrest the decline.”
His argument was, however, paradoxical, for he went on to assert:
“[R]eligion must remain a matter of personal choice. But in India, it has become a political tool in the hands of foreign powers, who are targeting Hindus to fragment our nation again on communal lines. This has to be resisted in national interest and in the interest of all minorities in India.”
In other words, minorities must be kept small, lest the majority which has hitherto held sway fears their increase and therefore takes violent measures against them. There is of course a pragmatic logic to this counsel of despair, as anyone who knows the history of intercommunal violence in that country – in 1947 especially – would acknowledge.
Unfortunately, this increasingly nationalist line of thinking is becoming more prevalent in Asia, as a paper just published by ADF International makes clear. Conversions away from the majority religion, whether Hinduism in India and Nepal or Buddhism in Burma (“Myanmar”) and Bhutan, are deemed to be threats to the country. And to counter the perceived threat, laws have been passed banning conversion in vague circumstances such as under “inducement” and in “fraudulent circumstances”. According to the paper, “The mere existence of an anti-conversion law in a state or country usually gives license to nationalist religious extremists to persecute members of minority religions.”
Cuius regio, eius religio1
In our own British Isles, after emerging as the victor of the Civil War(s) and sweeping away the old (episcopal) Church of England, Oliver Cromwell struggled with the same problem that “Religion must remain a matter of personal choice, but…”
Having executed the King in 1649, five years later, amid continuing religious fissiparation, he told Parliament:
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