The news about marriage has been so bad for so long, with rates steadily falling, that many Americans have despaired that not much, if anything, can be done to revive its fortunes.

But maybe — just maybe — Taylor Swift’s engagement to Travis Kelce might nudge things in the right direction. The pop singer’s immense popularity among young women puts her squarely in a position to influence the very demographic most sceptical about marriage. That scepticism runs deep: in 2022, only 73% of 12th graders expected to marry someday, with girls’ expectations dropping most sharply.

Part of this wariness stems from prominent female cultural voices who portray marriage as a losing game — from pop star Chappell Roan to New York Times writer Amy Shearn, who writes that “married heterosexual motherhood in America… is a game no one wins.” But is Swift’s influence enough to shift the tide of marriage culture in America?

It’s worth considering. Swift’s sway over her devoted fanbase is almost unmatched in today’s pop culture landscape. As Forbes notes, her influence stems from a network effect: she acts as a social “barometer”, with followers adopting aspects of her identity in pursuit of approval and belonging — a phenomenon dubbed the “Taylor Swift Effect”. The power of this effect isn’t surprising when you consider that many Swifties describe her concerts as near-religious experiences.

There’s reason to think the Taylor Swift Effect could extend to marriage. Media and cultural signals play a powerful role in shaping decisions about dating, marriage, children, and divorce. One study even found that a popular soap opera in Brazil led to higher divorce rates and lower birth rates. Similarly, high-profile celebrity cases of non-marital childbearing may have contributed to the weakening of the marriage norm in America. While these effects are striking, they shouldn’t be surprising: our social networks — now increasingly digital and parasocial — profoundly shape what we value, influencing everything from whom we marry to whether we stay married.

But will the Taylor Swift Effect usher in a marriage renaissance? Probably not. While Swift and Kelce’s engagement might inspire some Americans to rethink marriage, they are far from an average couple. Both are 35 — well above the typical age for a first marriage — and have achieved extraordinary success. It will take far more than the example of one exceptional celebrity pair to meaningfully boost the nation’s marriage rate.

Still, it’s refreshing to have some good news about marriage in America for a change. Let’s hope Taylor and Travis’s union endures and inspires many young men — and especially women — to pursue lasting marriages of their own. Perhaps a “happy, healthy marriage” era will be the next trend Taylor sets.