Joseph Khalil Aoun. He’s mostly unknown outside his native Lebanon, but is already helping transform the Middle East. Having previously served as the head of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), the new Lebanese President has been quick to make his ambitions clear, pledging to tackle corruption, improve judicial independence, and bolster institutions like the country’s internal security forces, as well as negotiate the withdrawal of Israeli troops from his country’s territory.
Enjoying the backing of both the US and Saudi Arabia, Aoun certainly has more hope of success than his predecessors, even as the Lebanese themselves are desperate for change after years of political sclerosis. In the end, though, Aoun will likely be judged on one policy alone — his implicit promise to finally disarm Hezbollah, integrating it into the Lebanese military infrastructure. It likely won’t happen as quickly as Aoun would like. But if the political environment truly begins to shift in that ambitious direction, even with outside help, Lebanon’s exhausted people may finally have something to be optimistic about after all these years.
Given Hezbollah’s long dominance of Lebanese politics, Aoun’s plan would have seemed like a pipedream mere months ago. There’s a reason “The Army, the People, and the Resistance” remained a maxim here for generations. But having been forced to accept an embarrassing ceasefire with Israel, even as its Baathist allies are ousted in Syria and its masters in Tehran are floundering, Hezbollah now has no choice but to accept bad deals like Aoun’s presidency.
Other parties have more reason to cheer. For starters, the Gulf States have gained a foothold in the upper echelons of Lebanese politics. They’ll inevitably use this influence to nudge Beirut away from Hezbollah, and its Iranian paymasters, and toward their own spheres of influence. This process is already underway: Aoun’s first overseas visit as President will be to Riyadh, while the United Arab Emirates has announced it will be reopening its long-shuttered embassy in Beirut. After the end of Lebanon’s civil war in 1990, the wealthy Sunni oil monarchies of the Arab Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia, started pouring billions into developing Lebanon’s financial sector while propping up powerful proxies in the country’s Sunni sector like the once influential Hariri family. Yet as Hezbollah and Iran’s influence grew and Lebanon’s economy became increasingly toxic, the Gulf states decided to cut their losses — which makes their apparent desire to re-engage now all the more telling.
Especially on the eve of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, meanwhile, the US will gladly use this momentum to pursue its own goals. Washington had been pushing for Aoun’s election even before the November ceasefire that silenced the guns, and his ascension to the presidency is an implicit part of the ceasefire arrangement. As the Biden Administration had rightly perceived, the Israel-Hezbollah war was a rare opportunity to flex its muscles in a Lebanon where the militants had long precluded US influence.
While Iran and its proxies have historically benefited from gaps in formalised state authority in Lebanon, the US and its allies have projected power by centralising governance. With Aoun now at the helm and a tacit new political compact among the Lebanese elite in the making, the US may be able to push the country’s politicians to actually govern — expanding America’s avenues of influence in the process. The impact of this shift is already becoming apparent as, a mere four days after Aoun’s arrival in office, Lebanese parliamentarians have already coalesced around a candidate for Prime Minister, International Court of Justice chief Nawaf Salam, whom Hezbollah had opposed. In the words of one Hezbollah lawmaker, the group had “extended its hand” by allowing Aoun to rise to the presidency, only to find that “hand cut”.
Israel, for its part, has opportunities here too. Though Aoun, the scion of a Christian family from war-ravaged south Lebanon, has spoken passionately about deterring the Jewish State, his words about reinstating the the government’s monopoly on violence were music to Tel Aviv’s ears — which sees his closeness to the US as a vital insurance policy against Hezbollah. Tel Aviv also likely views Aoun’s elevation as a prerequisite for any arrangement that would end its ongoing occupation of southern Lebanese towns, and its continued one-off strikes against alleged Hezbollah targets, potentially opening the door for a longer-term settlement after the ceasefire runs out later this month.
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeWhen this “journalist” speaks of ‘Tel Aviv’ as a synonym for the governing authority in Israel, I take him less seriously. Tel Aviv has NOTHING to do with any decision-making process in Israel. The seat of government is in Jerusalem. There are no organs of government in Tel Aviv.
Hezbollah was created by Iran, funded by Iran, armed by Iran and controlled by Iran. Crushing Iran’s puppet is a requirement for a civil peaceful Lebanon and region. The only way ro deter Israel is to stop firing missles at Israel and stop carrying raids against Israel. Bonus points for stopping the anti-semitic brainwashing. More points for signing a peace treaty and a trade treaty with Israel.
Very well said ..
«But if Aoun and the LAF do finally succeed in bolstering state authority in the south, and create a defence policy that meaningfully guards against future Israel’s violations of Lebanese sovereignty»
.
What does it mean? Apparently, the missiles do not violate the sovereignty of the neighboring country
.
I’m definitely tired of such “journalists”.
If the LAF could work with or establish some ties with the IAF, Hezbollah could be further constrained.
Hezbollah fear the Israelis, Trump has many aims in this Presidency, destroy the mullahs in Iran is close to the top.
How he succeeds will lay the groundwork for a generation of calm in the Middle East, something that is crucial to Europe, it needs somewhere to repatriate/remigrate Muslim immigrants.
This reads like a David Lammy vanity blog.
Is anyone idiotic enough truly to believe that Iran will give up its control in Lebanon?
The Israelis will make them give up, Monday will see the crook Biden slither off, Trump will finish what he started last time, the Abraham Accords, they cannot succeed with a hostile Iran causing havoc.
Hezbollah, nothing but a cancer for Lebanon. Let’s hope Lebanon can become the great country that it once was.
The article is a kind of: here I say it and here I deny it.