Universities have been captured. Credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty

Linda McMahon’s nomination to head the Department of Education was a characteristic move from Donald Trump, host of The Apprentice, who ended every episode with the words “You’re fired!”. McMahon, who co-founded the WWE (World Wrestling Entertainment) is no stranger to the roped ring, where she dished out slaps and once kicked her husband Vince in the balls. She has little experience in education but whatever one may think of her qualifications, to put her forward was an inspired act of populist political showmanship. It proclaimed Trump’s intention to body-slam the dysfunctional, ideologically captured bureaucracies that have brought American education to its knees.
Universities urgently need reform. Henry Adams, who graduated from tiny Harvard College in 1858, wrote that his alma mater left the mind “open”, “supple”, and “ready to receive knowledge”. Few would say that today about any elite American university or liberal arts college. The top schools, and many lower-ranked ones as well, have become grim centres of cancellation, progressivist indoctrination, and self-censorship.
To understand how higher education reached this deplorable state, we must return to the 19th century.
Back in 1874, Nietzsche wrote that universities must be quiet enclosures where the young, protected from the noise of the day, can become “finished, ripe and harmonious personalities”. But he perceived that the primary objective of the modern research university — which was born in Germany, and came into its own in the US at the turn of the 20th century — was social utility, not individual growth and ripeness. The young, Nietzsche lamented in his On the Advantage and Disadvantage of History for Life, were “to be trained for the purpose of the age and to lend a hand as soon as possible”.
The world wars of the 20th century only exacerbated this narrow intellectual presentism. In 1946, George Orwell wrote that “there is no such thing as keeping out of politics”, and the university was no exception. In the aftermath of the Second World War, Europe was focused on repairing its ruined infrastructure and economy, and these tasks — to say nothing of the rapidly expanding US military-industrial complex — called for technical expertise. The result was what German philosopher Josef Pieper decried as an industrial model of education, in which teaching and learning were judged exclusively by the criterion of “social service”.
Pressed by an increasingly complex age’s demand for specialists, universities eventually lost whatever integral vision of education still animated their faculties. As Wendell Berry observed in his 1984 essay “The Loss of the University”, the faculty no longer understood that “the thing being made in a university is humanity”. Academics had ceased to speak or teach the “common tongue” that for millennia had formed “responsible heirs and members of culture”. For Berry, while liberal education resembled the trunk of a tree from which it is possible to branch out — a tree of life — the contemporary academy was “a loose collection of lopped branches waving about randomly in the air”.
By the mid-Eighties, something new — or rather, something as old and stale as a secret policeman’s office — was in the air. Universities had come to understand service to society not just in economic terms, but in ideological ones too. The activist seeds of the Sixties — in particular Herbert Marcuse’s call for “intolerance against movements from the Right” — had been blowing in the wind for decades, and were taking root well beyond campus walls.
Marcuse, who combined (and in the process deformed) the thought of Marx and Freud, fathered the so-called New Left. He inspired generations of radical activists and professors, including Angela Davis and Abbie Hoffman, and laid the foundations of what is today known as critical theory. Marcuse rejected the basic traditions of American political life, including free speech. Tolerance, he wrote in 1965, “cannot protect false words and wrong deeds which demonstrate that they contradict and counteract the possibilities of liberation”. Channeling the Sixties’ “Make Love, Not War” vibe, he aimed to liberate our erotic nature from social constraints, but ignored Freud’s warnings that the monsters in the basement of the psyche must be kept behind locked doors.
With the release of aggressive and nihilistic resentment, ever more ground had to be cleared in the university curriculum for new growths of political activism. In 1987, Jesse Jackson led 500 students at Stanford in chanting “Hey hey, ho ho, Western Civ has got to go”. In 1989, Stanford’s “Western Culture” humanities programme, mandatory for all undergraduates, was replaced by one that featured “more inclusive works on race, class, and gender”.
Some tried to fight back, but their attempts were futile. In 1991, Yale alumnus Lee Bass gave $20 million to his alma mater to fund a Western Civilisation curriculum. The curriculum was never implemented, and in 1995 Yale returned the money.
These developments were not limited to esteemed institutions such as Stanford and Yale: elite universities have a huge impact on the composition of the professoriate at every level, from community college to research university. One decade-long study published in 2022 showed that the most prestigious PhD-granting departments (those in the top 20%) train 80% of American professors in any given field. That includes schools and departments of education, which generally attract faculty and graduate teachers and future administrators who are steeped in identity politics.
Unsurprisingly, while liberals have significantly outnumbered conservatives and moderates in the professoriate since at least 1960, the percentage of those who identify as liberal and far-Left has skyrocketed in recent decades. A 2018 survey of 8,688 tenure track, PhD–holding professors from top liberal arts colleges in the United States found that the ratio of registered Democrats to registered Republicans in the field of history was 17.4 to 1, in philosophy 17.5 to 1, in English 48.3 to 1, and in religion 70 to 1. This imbalance — present in every one of the 24 academic subjects surveyed — is likely higher today, as professors have moved further Left along with the Democratic Party.
In 2024, little remains of the great hard oak of the West in university curricula — and what does is often pulped and strained through a steel mesh of criticism so as to extract object lessons in inequality and injustice. Universities still pay lip service to the goal of graduating well-formed human beings, but far too many punish independent thought and reward ideological conformity. Applicants to elite institutions, many coached by expensive consultants, have for decades been evaluated according to largely non-academic measures. This explains the decreasing percentage of Asian and Jewish students in the Ivy Leagues and other top-tier schools. If you want to be admitted to these universities, or for that matter to win a Rhodes Scholarship or any other highly prestigious award, it helps enormously to be a member of a favoured minority who can speak the language of DEI, critical race theory, intersectionality, and settler colonialism.
All of which raises Lenin’s favourite question: “What is to be done?” In Hope Against Hope, a memoir of life under Stalin, Nadezhda Mandelstam wrote of Soviet leaders who, “ensconced in their ivory towers”, thought that they could “build the present out of the bricks of the future”. Today we find ourselves in a similar predicament. We do not need social engineers. We need leaders and citizens who can think for themselves: who understand the conditions of human flourishing, see things whole, and exercise sound judgment.
The good news is that most Americans seem to agree. There were many reasons for Donald Trump’s landslide victory in the presidential election, including inflation, open borders, and a feckless foreign policy. But voters were also fed up with elites who use their power as platforms for ideological scolding and radical activism.
Trump has vowed to eliminate “Marxist diversity, equity and inclusion bureaucrats”. That includes dismissing the current national higher education accrediting agencies, only six of which are authorised to accredit four-year colleges and universities. One agency requires that “the institution defines and acts with intention to advance diversity, equity, and inclusion in all its activities”. Another explains that “an equity framework should permeate… all levels of institutions.” A third obliges institutions to “focus on equity”. New, non-ideological entrants into the accreditation space are sorely needed.
Even with control of both house of Congress, how much Trump and McMahon can accomplish in the face of Democratic opposition and widespread hostility among federal employees remains to be seen. But if they want to Make Education Great Again, they need to make it easier to start new universities. Regulatory capture is the rule in higher education, even in red states. When the University of Austin (where I am provost) received state authorisation in 2023 to open its doors to students, it was the first new secular institution to do so in Texas in over 60 years. And although our first class of freshmen matriculated this September, these students can receive no federal financial aid until we are accredited, which cannot occur before they graduate. Nor can their parents use popular 529 education savings plans to pay their tuition.
Yet ours is a model whose time has come —as a CBS News feature makes clear. Like rowers, future builders, leaders, and founders need to look back to the past in order to move into the future. Our curriculum turns on the civilisationally productive tensions between tradition and innovation, reason and revelation, authority and freedom, the individual and society. We introduce students to the knowledge and wisdom of our ancestors, compel them to apply those lessons to today’s pressing challenges, and equip them with the 21st-century skills they need in order to do so — all in an atmosphere of open inquiry and civil discourse. For the next four years, at least, institutions that want to try similar pedagogical experiments will have fresh wind in their sails.
Well… a Ukrainian Think Tank expert on Russian Military…..giving the story on a Ukrainian War……Well, we know Youtube will object with nothing he has said.
When asked if Ukraine takes the Donbas will they then be able to take Crimea – he replied:
‘That would be a Brilliant problem to have, I hope we get there’.
Several other times he used the collective ‘We‘ when talking of Ukraine, and was very much talking of this as being his war too. To me I saw this come out in the entire position of his talk.
Personally I say get Colonel Douglas MacGregor to give the flip side story – it is Much more compelling, but is anti war (As I have been from the start because it is an evil war and Biden/Boris had no business in turning it into WWIII) I would tell people interested in other sides to watch ‘Redacted News’ on Rumble – this is their main story always, Redacted are a weird thing, and quite problematic, and really do not know all that much – but still – they give the other side. The side which says feeding this war is evil and Peace at ALL costs is the only answer.
Kofman told a big fib as well, one which I think should be the big story, but is not allowed to be fully talked of. Kofman said there can be no treaty as Russia will not offer a viable Deal. Come on you cannot say that… First Biden forbade a deal and sent his mini-me there twice when a deal was possible – to squash it.
I have heard Putin give his deal, Donbas independent and assure Ukraine will not be part of the EU, nor NATO, and Crimea is Russian. Sounds like a deal 1000000000 X better than this evil war – which is crashing the global economy, is bringing on a global famine, and will contribute to billions going from poverty to Abject Poverty as the problems ripple out around the world stronger. Not to mention 10,000,000, ten million, Ukrainians have fled to Europe and Russia, and 250,000 Ukrainians dead of disabled. And EU is deindustilazing and going bankrupt, as is UK over it. The remaining population In Ukraine is 19,000,000, not near enough to keep fighting, or to rebuild Ukraine, according to MacGreggor –
AND here is the thing – when it comes time to rebuild – no one will pay for it – those outside will likely not come back if they find something viable – more will leave the wreckage. It reminds me of the Punic Wars where Rome tore down Carthage and all its empire stone by stone, killed all the people, and salted the lands…. Only is is not Russia and Ukraine doing it – but Biden, Boris, and Zalenski.
I continue on another post, Part II
Er, this article is about assessing where this war is going, not trying to get a “gotcha.”
Quite a few analysts on the Allied side in WW2 also used “we” when they predicted an allied victory.
Turned out they were right.
Kofman is an analyst. One of the few who predicted Putin would invade. You are certainly welcome to consult the “caring anti-war” side who got things wrong, instead of the people who got things right about Ukraine.
But don’t claim they are more reliable than Kofman.
Does Sweden and Finland applying to join NATO not tell you something?
It makes me shudder!
NATO controls the Baltic completely.
Another gift of Putin’s genius.
NATO controls the Baltic completely.
Another gift of Putin’s genius.
It makes me shudder!
Spot on analysis. As you mention Redacted or McGreggor provide a far better overview than this guy. Also very good economic analysis by a chap called Mark Sleboda describing this as a war between capital and commodities.
Oh, it is you again playing Russian propaganda songs on your one string balalajka ….
No serious experts on Western side ever predicted quick and painless victory.
Many, quite rightly, said that there was a window last summer and early autumn when giving Ukraine more help would result in more territory recovered from invaders.
Obviously due to usual suspects like Germany and France it never happened.
I never heard from anyone supporting Russian position, why Russian success in Ukraine would be beneficial to the West?
Defeat of Russian imperialism is definitely in West interest.
Even taking much narrower and cynical perspective, what is not to like about Ukraine destroying Russian military assets?
If they want to fight then help them to do it.
It is cheaper and less painfull to let them do it than asking Baltic States and Poland to do it.
Unless you think that Russia should just carry out further looting, rapes and genocide?
Er, this article is about assessing where this war is going, not trying to get a “gotcha.”
Quite a few analysts on the Allied side in WW2 also used “we” when they predicted an allied victory.
Turned out they were right.
Kofman is an analyst. One of the few who predicted Putin would invade. You are certainly welcome to consult the “caring anti-war” side who got things wrong, instead of the people who got things right about Ukraine.
But don’t claim they are more reliable than Kofman.
Does Sweden and Finland applying to join NATO not tell you something?
Spot on analysis. As you mention Redacted or McGreggor provide a far better overview than this guy. Also very good economic analysis by a chap called Mark Sleboda describing this as a war between capital and commodities.
Oh, it is you again playing Russian propaganda songs on your one string balalajka ….
No serious experts on Western side ever predicted quick and painless victory.
Many, quite rightly, said that there was a window last summer and early autumn when giving Ukraine more help would result in more territory recovered from invaders.
Obviously due to usual suspects like Germany and France it never happened.
I never heard from anyone supporting Russian position, why Russian success in Ukraine would be beneficial to the West?
Defeat of Russian imperialism is definitely in West interest.
Even taking much narrower and cynical perspective, what is not to like about Ukraine destroying Russian military assets?
If they want to fight then help them to do it.
It is cheaper and less painfull to let them do it than asking Baltic States and Poland to do it.
Unless you think that Russia should just carry out further looting, rapes and genocide?
Well… a Ukrainian Think Tank expert on Russian Military…..giving the story on a Ukrainian War……Well, we know Youtube will object with nothing he has said.
When asked if Ukraine takes the Donbas will they then be able to take Crimea – he replied:
‘That would be a Brilliant problem to have, I hope we get there’.
Several other times he used the collective ‘We‘ when talking of Ukraine, and was very much talking of this as being his war too. To me I saw this come out in the entire position of his talk.
Personally I say get Colonel Douglas MacGregor to give the flip side story – it is Much more compelling, but is anti war (As I have been from the start because it is an evil war and Biden/Boris had no business in turning it into WWIII) I would tell people interested in other sides to watch ‘Redacted News’ on Rumble – this is their main story always, Redacted are a weird thing, and quite problematic, and really do not know all that much – but still – they give the other side. The side which says feeding this war is evil and Peace at ALL costs is the only answer.
Kofman told a big fib as well, one which I think should be the big story, but is not allowed to be fully talked of. Kofman said there can be no treaty as Russia will not offer a viable Deal. Come on you cannot say that… First Biden forbade a deal and sent his mini-me there twice when a deal was possible – to squash it.
I have heard Putin give his deal, Donbas independent and assure Ukraine will not be part of the EU, nor NATO, and Crimea is Russian. Sounds like a deal 1000000000 X better than this evil war – which is crashing the global economy, is bringing on a global famine, and will contribute to billions going from poverty to Abject Poverty as the problems ripple out around the world stronger. Not to mention 10,000,000, ten million, Ukrainians have fled to Europe and Russia, and 250,000 Ukrainians dead of disabled. And EU is deindustilazing and going bankrupt, as is UK over it. The remaining population In Ukraine is 19,000,000, not near enough to keep fighting, or to rebuild Ukraine, according to MacGreggor –
AND here is the thing – when it comes time to rebuild – no one will pay for it – those outside will likely not come back if they find something viable – more will leave the wreckage. It reminds me of the Punic Wars where Rome tore down Carthage and all its empire stone by stone, killed all the people, and salted the lands…. Only is is not Russia and Ukraine doing it – but Biden, Boris, and Zalenski.
I continue on another post, Part II
Great interview by one of the few analysts who predicted this war.
But I can’t see Russia attaining any further gains in this war unless Putin begins to draft his “hidden reserves” in the city. There simply aren’t that many rural guys who need to steal toilets as war booty.
I just read a good article arguing that the much feared Russian offensive of the “mobiks” has actually been going on for weeks. It’s just that Russia can’t get enough supplies to an one part of the front, so they have to attack in widely separated areas.
https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-3-february-2023-56183abaab20
Stalin would have put 5 million men in the trenches by now. He would already have expended at least a million lives.
Unless “Vova” does the same, he’s going to lose.
Great interview by one of the few analysts who predicted this war.
But I can’t see Russia attaining any further gains in this war unless Putin begins to draft his “hidden reserves” in the city. There simply aren’t that many rural guys who need to steal toilets as war booty.
I just read a good article arguing that the much feared Russian offensive of the “mobiks” has actually been going on for weeks. It’s just that Russia can’t get enough supplies to an one part of the front, so they have to attack in widely separated areas.
https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-3-february-2023-56183abaab20
Stalin would have put 5 million men in the trenches by now. He would already have expended at least a million lives.
Unless “Vova” does the same, he’s going to lose.
Very interesting analyst (if a little hard to hear – it may be accent or mic issues). Good questions from Freddie.
Very interesting analyst (if a little hard to hear – it may be accent or mic issues). Good questions from Freddie.
To clarify on Crimea. I suspect what the analyst is hinting at is a Ukrainian strategy on Crimea that mirrors, on a larger scale, what they did in Kherson. They did not fight their way into Kherson. They cut it off from supply and therefore made the Russian military presence there untenable.
Ukraine will attempt to drive down from Zaporizhiya to Melitopol. That is a realistic objective. If they succeed at this and, as soon as the Rooskies finish repairing the Kerch Bridge, they blow it up again(!), Crimea will be completely cut off from resupply. (Check the map.) The Ukrainians will not literally starve the Crimean populace, but they will starve the Russian army there, and thence the Russians may have to reach a compromise re status.
First they have to get to Melitopol. As Kofman always caveats, that’s contingent on so many factors that we can’t predict which way it will go. But agreed, they will probably try.
First they have to get to Melitopol. As Kofman always caveats, that’s contingent on so many factors that we can’t predict which way it will go. But agreed, they will probably try.
To clarify on Crimea. I suspect what the analyst is hinting at is a Ukrainian strategy on Crimea that mirrors, on a larger scale, what they did in Kherson. They did not fight their way into Kherson. They cut it off from supply and therefore made the Russian military presence there untenable.
Ukraine will attempt to drive down from Zaporizhiya to Melitopol. That is a realistic objective. If they succeed at this and, as soon as the Rooskies finish repairing the Kerch Bridge, they blow it up again(!), Crimea will be completely cut off from resupply. (Check the map.) The Ukrainians will not literally starve the Crimean populace, but they will starve the Russian army there, and thence the Russians may have to reach a compromise re status.
Excellent analysis.
Excellent analysis.
OK – I would have asked this guy a very different set of questions.
1) What is the Point of this war? Why is Putin doing it, why is Zalenski having Ukraine destroying its self and its people and the world to avoid a treaty – one they may not like, but better than death and destruction. In other words – why is Biden/Boris doing this?
2) Is this an intentional Stale Mate? It would seem so. There are many reasons to think this stalemate is a desired outcome so far. Who blew up the Pipeline, and why is Germany Industry dismantling and moving to USA for cheap and reliable energy? What about the 26 fertilizer manufacturing plants in Europe shut down because no gas as feed-stock? (Evin the fertilizer plant in New Zealand shut – crazy stuff is afoot – Russia and Ukraine are the worlds biggest fertilizer suppliers – not now) Why is USA supplying expensive gas – and Qtar more so, to Europe LNG – way more than just Russian gas through a pipeline – is it worth wrecking the European economy over which flag flies over Donbas? Or is it something else??
3) How much $ to rebuild? What will Ukraine be once re-built? In this day of collapsing demographics, will Ukrainians stay 40,000,000 forty Million? or end up 25,000,000? They have the worst demographics in the region already. Who will pay the $ One Trillion $$ to rebuild? I know Blackrock and Blackwater are there like pigs looking for a trough.
4) as 7% of European gas goes through Azerbaijan, and the war with Armenia is looking scary, and you know Erdogan is going to get up to stuff – all the pipelines go through Turkey – Is there another Black Swan circling – Has this war created a situation where there is NO buffering in the system so a Black Swan Event will tip us all into global Depression? In other words can the world tolerate this destabilization at this precarious time (post covid insanity) Is this war a lot like Serbia and WWI?
5) what is so bad about a treaty – that Donbas become independent? India did it, tons of countries did it. Why is Peace not the FIRST thing on Every mind? The world is walking a knife edge – this war is insane, It is destroying the global economy and destabilizing everything. Is it worth wrecking the world over Donbas staying Ukrainian and that they can join NATO?
6) What if Biden gives F-16s and long range bombs, and some advisors on the ground so Putin blows up some Atlantic undersea cables and a couple Super Tankers get blown up in the Straits of Malacca and the entire global economy stops completely? You talk of battlefield nukes – lots worse than that can happen – just with simple explosives – Why drive the bear into a corner and then just keep poking him? Is this evil war worth destroying the world? Billions could die if the supply and economy breaks – and this could do it.
‘Or is it something else??’
Have you read about the ‘multi polar’ world? America is shifting its supply chains away from the east it seems, I think we are looking at a breaking of the existing globalised world order that was dominated by America, into regional power blocs maybe. For many reasons, America and the East not getting on, supply chain crisis from covid etc. If you search for global trends report 2040, it discusses the geopolitical situations likely by 2040, one is ‘separate silos’.
I agree the situation is increasingly complex, there seems to be a fair few proxy wars going on at the moment all over the place, like you say many black swans a circling. Nukes are not the main worry either, I agree, it’s the supply chain chaos, sanctions on energy, fertiliser shortage etc that perhaps should be worrying about more. Especially if the US and China end up fighting over Taiwan. I do think maybe it would be wise to take a step back at this point and decide whether breaking all this up is worth the consequences. Maybe russia and China are intent on breaking the old order now anyway?
Invading a sovereign country twice pretty much proves someone doesn’t care about the int’l order.
Probably never did.
calling a US puppet a ‘sovereign country’ is very nice, but still an exaggeration.
Was it a “puppet” before, or only after 2014?
And those puppets seem to fight a lot harder than the Russians.
So perhaps Russia is even less of a ‘sovereign country’?
Was it a “puppet” before, or only after 2014?
And those puppets seem to fight a lot harder than the Russians.
So perhaps Russia is even less of a ‘sovereign country’?
calling a US puppet a ‘sovereign country’ is very nice, but still an exaggeration.
You should highlight (5) of Elliot Bjorn;s submission. It is the only logical way forward, benefiting every nation – including Ukraine, which is being destroyed for largely political and economic advantage as stated in (2).
Perhaps, I’m not sure as it being the only logical way forward. While the peace proposal is a good one, logical and I think well worth considering, we also have consider the other side that if China and Russia are working together to break with the west, they aren’t likely to be too kind about it. A major factor to consider is whether the east west break is being driven by America, or by Russia and China or all involved now. Another is what are their intentions in doing so. What is their vision of a future world order? There’s a lot to think about if you see what I mean before we say that’s the only way forward. There’s a lot going on. I think it’s worth seriously considering peace, but we also have to accept it may not be our choice, it may not be an option now. It depends on Russia and Chinas attitude as much as it does ours.
Because it is blatant lie which Russian stooges on here keep repeating.
There was Ukrainian independence referendum in 1991 and Donbass and Luhansk voted over 80% to be part of Ukraine.
Even Crimea voted 54% for it.
Idea that surrendering to Russia would benefit Ukraine is just a sick joke.
People argue the same when appeasing Hitler.
Please tell us how well it worked out?
Please tell us as well why successful aggressor like Putin would stop there?
Historical precedence shows otherwise.
Perhaps, I’m not sure as it being the only logical way forward. While the peace proposal is a good one, logical and I think well worth considering, we also have consider the other side that if China and Russia are working together to break with the west, they aren’t likely to be too kind about it. A major factor to consider is whether the east west break is being driven by America, or by Russia and China or all involved now. Another is what are their intentions in doing so. What is their vision of a future world order? There’s a lot to think about if you see what I mean before we say that’s the only way forward. There’s a lot going on. I think it’s worth seriously considering peace, but we also have to accept it may not be our choice, it may not be an option now. It depends on Russia and Chinas attitude as much as it does ours.
Because it is blatant lie which Russian stooges on here keep repeating.
There was Ukrainian independence referendum in 1991 and Donbass and Luhansk voted over 80% to be part of Ukraine.
Even Crimea voted 54% for it.
Idea that surrendering to Russia would benefit Ukraine is just a sick joke.
People argue the same when appeasing Hitler.
Please tell us how well it worked out?
Please tell us as well why successful aggressor like Putin would stop there?
Historical precedence shows otherwise.
Invading a sovereign country twice pretty much proves someone doesn’t care about the int’l order.
Probably never did.
You should highlight (5) of Elliot Bjorn;s submission. It is the only logical way forward, benefiting every nation – including Ukraine, which is being destroyed for largely political and economic advantage as stated in (2).
Putin’s invasion was a “Black Swan event” that changed everything.
You just have to accept that the good times of 1991-2022 (that very much resembled the 1920s) are over.
All those Post-Modern dreams and aspirations died the death on 24 Feb. This is 1915, or 1940.
Just get used to it, and try to figure out where we go from here. Unlike Realists like Mearsheimer, learn from history–and so become realistic.
Are you still here? You, Mr logan, are not here for sensible conversation, you have proved that over and over again. I doubt, from the quality of your previous posts, you are capable of the intelligence to contemplate the very big and complicated world of geopolitics. Please forgive me, but you are not worth engaging with.
IOW, you can’t think of a good reply.
IOW, you can’t think of a good reply.
Are you still here? You, Mr logan, are not here for sensible conversation, you have proved that over and over again. I doubt, from the quality of your previous posts, you are capable of the intelligence to contemplate the very big and complicated world of geopolitics. Please forgive me, but you are not worth engaging with.
‘Or is it something else??’
Have you read about the ‘multi polar’ world? America is shifting its supply chains away from the east it seems, I think we are looking at a breaking of the existing globalised world order that was dominated by America, into regional power blocs maybe. For many reasons, America and the East not getting on, supply chain crisis from covid etc. If you search for global trends report 2040, it discusses the geopolitical situations likely by 2040, one is ‘separate silos’.
I agree the situation is increasingly complex, there seems to be a fair few proxy wars going on at the moment all over the place, like you say many black swans a circling. Nukes are not the main worry either, I agree, it’s the supply chain chaos, sanctions on energy, fertiliser shortage etc that perhaps should be worrying about more. Especially if the US and China end up fighting over Taiwan. I do think maybe it would be wise to take a step back at this point and decide whether breaking all this up is worth the consequences. Maybe russia and China are intent on breaking the old order now anyway?
Putin’s invasion was a “Black Swan event” that changed everything.
You just have to accept that the good times of 1991-2022 (that very much resembled the 1920s) are over.
All those Post-Modern dreams and aspirations died the death on 24 Feb. This is 1915, or 1940.
Just get used to it, and try to figure out where we go from here. Unlike Realists like Mearsheimer, learn from history–and so become realistic.
OK – I would have asked this guy a very different set of questions.
1) What is the Point of this war? Why is Putin doing it, why is Zalenski having Ukraine destroying its self and its people and the world to avoid a treaty – one they may not like, but better than death and destruction. In other words – why is Biden/Boris doing this?
2) Is this an intentional Stale Mate? It would seem so. There are many reasons to think this stalemate is a desired outcome so far. Who blew up the Pipeline, and why is Germany Industry dismantling and moving to USA for cheap and reliable energy? What about the 26 fertilizer manufacturing plants in Europe shut down because no gas as feed-stock? (Evin the fertilizer plant in New Zealand shut – crazy stuff is afoot – Russia and Ukraine are the worlds biggest fertilizer suppliers – not now) Why is USA supplying expensive gas – and Qtar more so, to Europe LNG – way more than just Russian gas through a pipeline – is it worth wrecking the European economy over which flag flies over Donbas? Or is it something else??
3) How much $ to rebuild? What will Ukraine be once re-built? In this day of collapsing demographics, will Ukrainians stay 40,000,000 forty Million? or end up 25,000,000? They have the worst demographics in the region already. Who will pay the $ One Trillion $$ to rebuild? I know Blackrock and Blackwater are there like pigs looking for a trough.
4) as 7% of European gas goes through Azerbaijan, and the war with Armenia is looking scary, and you know Erdogan is going to get up to stuff – all the pipelines go through Turkey – Is there another Black Swan circling – Has this war created a situation where there is NO buffering in the system so a Black Swan Event will tip us all into global Depression? In other words can the world tolerate this destabilization at this precarious time (post covid insanity) Is this war a lot like Serbia and WWI?
5) what is so bad about a treaty – that Donbas become independent? India did it, tons of countries did it. Why is Peace not the FIRST thing on Every mind? The world is walking a knife edge – this war is insane, It is destroying the global economy and destabilizing everything. Is it worth wrecking the world over Donbas staying Ukrainian and that they can join NATO?
6) What if Biden gives F-16s and long range bombs, and some advisors on the ground so Putin blows up some Atlantic undersea cables and a couple Super Tankers get blown up in the Straits of Malacca and the entire global economy stops completely? You talk of battlefield nukes – lots worse than that can happen – just with simple explosives – Why drive the bear into a corner and then just keep poking him? Is this evil war worth destroying the world? Billions could die if the supply and economy breaks – and this could do it.
What if Ukraine suffers a catastrophic defeat? Will the US use nuclear weapons to stop Russia?
Understand that in Western war-games, it is regularly NATO that first uses nuclear weapons, and regularly “tactical nukes”, in the vain hope that would not lead to an escalation. Russian conventional missiles are powerful enough that Russia does not need to resort to tactical nukes, they offer no military advantage.
Actually, Russian doctrine makes no difference between tactical non-nuclear weapons and tactical nuclear weapons.
Which has always been the worry in NATO.
Actually it is Russian doctrine of “nuclear deescalation” with tactical nukes.
In their military exercises with code “Zapad” they often used nuclear attack on Warsaw to “win” the war.
Actually, Russian doctrine makes no difference between tactical non-nuclear weapons and tactical nuclear weapons.
Which has always been the worry in NATO.
Actually it is Russian doctrine of “nuclear deescalation” with tactical nukes.
In their military exercises with code “Zapad” they often used nuclear attack on Warsaw to “win” the war.
What if Ukraine suffers a catastrophic defeat? Will the US use nuclear weapons to stop Russia?
Understand that in Western war-games, it is regularly NATO that first uses nuclear weapons, and regularly “tactical nukes”, in the vain hope that would not lead to an escalation. Russian conventional missiles are powerful enough that Russia does not need to resort to tactical nukes, they offer no military advantage.