Sinwar was confirmed to be killed on Thursday evening.(Photo by Laith Al-jnaidi/Anadolu via Getty Images)
At dawn on 22 March, 2004, a half-blind paraplegic cleric was returning home after his prayers in the Mosque in Gaza City when he was assassinated by two low flying Israeli helicopters. Sheikh Ahmed Yassin was the founder of Hamas, an outgrowth of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and its spiritual mentor. A few weeks later, Yassin’s successor, Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, was himself assassinated in his car by another Israeli helicopter. The head had been cut off the snake. Much comment at the time was given to the ethics of such targeted assassinations. The British Foreign Secretary at the time, Jack Straw, called the Yassin assassination “unacceptable, unjust”. Tony Blair called it a “setback” for the peace process.
But, ethics aside, how effective was it as a military strategy? I was in Gaza City later that year. A new Hamas leader was in place. Militancy was undimmed. I played football with Palestinian children whose bitterness at “Jews” burnt like a fire within. I spoke to their primary school teacher who told me that they needed a period of throwing things against a wall before lessons in order to get all their anger out. This was the generation of children that would go on to launch the October 7 attack, nearly 20 years later.
Others argued that the assassination of Yassin was a mistake because he was a “moderate” — which, of course, is a relative term in Gazan politics. “It was Yassin the incarnation of evil in the eyes of Israelis who kept Hamas in line and ensured that its violent outbursts were measured, calibrated, and doled out strategically rather than haphazardly,” wrote Barak Barfi. “He understood the limits of violence. His successors recognise no such limits.” It seems to me ridiculous to talk of someone who supported and promoted suicide bombings as being a moderate. Yassin was a terrible man. But there were worse to come. And Yahya Sinwar proved it.
It was Yassin who first recruited Sinwar back in the Eighties. Yassin appreciated the fact that Sinwar was a Hafiz — that he had memorised the Quran word for word. When only 25, Sinwar became the Hamas enforcer, punishing local Gazans for morality offences such as selling pornographic videos. It is said he tortured a fellow Hamas commander for over a year before murdering him in 2016, on the grounds of “moral violations”, code for homosexuality. He was known to be especially brutal in seeking out Israeli collaborators. There is a story that he made one collaborator’s brother bury him alive — but with a spoon rather than a shovel. Sinwar was a monster. Ordinary Gazan people were terrified of him. And, of course, Sinwar was the mastermind of the October 7 massacre. Which may be why, 20 years after Yassin’s assassination, our Prime Minister has taken a very different line from his predecessor: “I, for one, will not mourn a terror leader like Sinwar”.
But will his death change anything? Certainly, it has given Israelis something to cheer about. As his death was announced over the tannoy on the beach in Tel Aviv, bathers jumped up and down and shouted in triumph. More than anyone else, Sinwar bears responsibility for the suffering brought upon the people of Gaza and Israel.
But what difference will it make? Is the Israeli strategy of targeted assassination just a brutal version of whack-a-mole, killing one leader only for another, perhaps even more brutal, to take his place? When I was at school, we used to tell the story of history through kings and queens and military leaders. By the time I got to university, we were being taught that underlying social movements were far more important, that history happened “from below” and that leaders were just a kind of epiphenomenon of deeper social forces. This matters: if Sinwar was the product of deep social bitterness, then new monsters will emerge; however, if Sinwar and his like were responsible for violently imposing his gruesome ideology on the people of Gaza, then his death brings a certain hope.
A video posted on X gave me some hope the latter might be true. A man, seemingly from Gaza, surrounded by half-a-dozen children in a field of tents, sent a message in heavily accented Hebrew to the “citizens of the state of Israel”. He compared his own people living in tents with the Jewish festival of Sukkot, during which Jews live in temporary dwellings to mark, among other things, the fragility of human life. He spoke of the need for shalom. Oh God, I hope this video isn’t a fake.
But if Hamas have had their foot on the throat of such people, terrorising them into submission, then the death of Sinwar makes it more possible for many more such expressions of reconciliation to take place — and that means that there is light at the end of the tunnels. As the historian Simon Sebag Montefiore put it: “The big question is: can the wounded, grieving, heartbroken, enraged two nations of Israelis and Palestinians find a way to create a path out of this hell?”
There is one significant reason this assassination could be different. Symbolism matters. That the mastermind of October 7 is now dead could provide an off ramp for this horrendous war. The Americans will inevitably try to cast it as such. And perhaps even Netanyahu, now with increasing popularity back home, may feel he has just enough political authority to marginalise those ultra-hardliners in his cabinet for whom little short of the annihilation of Gaza will suffice as victory. He has described Sinwar’s death as “the beginning of the end” of the war. Certainly, a ceasefire in the Strip feels more possible now than it did a few days ago. But Hamas will still have to release the hostages for the war to end. And they may decide to murder more of them. In any case, the Israelis think that they are winning — so why stop now?
Sinwar’s death may be satisfying emotionally — and the absence of a rocket attack from Gaza following his death indicates how depleted his army had become — but the basic drivers of the conflict nonetheless remain in place. Too many of Israel’s neighbours are committed to its eradication. Iran will continue to supply arms and money to terrorists who seek the death of Jews. They will continue to develop nuclear weapons. Things are a long way from over.
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SubscribeAny chance we could stick to rational scientific debate? I thought that the whole point of Unherd was that it doesn’t follow the herd, but perhaps I was wrong? Give me information, not proselytization.
Not following the herd wherever it goes doesn’t mean disagreeing with it no matter what. On climate change, there are clearly some parts of the accepted narrative that are correct and backed up by good data and theory. It doesn’t mean we have to get all Greta Thunberg, but a stopped clock is right twice a day.
Science keeps saying this Pacific NW heat event is a 1 in 1000 year ‘Heat Dome’, a very rare climatic event
“The core of the heatdome, as measured by the thickness of the air column over British Columbia and the Pacific NW, is – statistically speaking – equivalent to a 1 in 1000 year event”
But a Gretta spin on everything is pretty much required these days. Remember, these events likely used to be 1 in 2000 year events, and are now 1 in 1000 year events, so likely means:
“In decades to come swathes of the world will resemble British Columbia today”
I always liked Poutine, so can handle it.
“Science keeps saying this Pacific NW heat event is a 1 in 1000 year ‘Heat Dome’, a very rare climatic event.”
Yes. It’s easy to google the heatwave in the pacific northwest and learn about the rare conjunction of factors that caused the heat dome. As the author of this article rightly notes at the beginning, there’s no evidence to link climate change to this anomalous event (although I think it should be conceded there might be a link to some extent). I’m not sure why the author chose to concede the current heatwave can’t definitely be linked to climate change and then use it as an example of what will happen to all of us if we don’t change our CO2-producing ways.
The more interesting question for me is what if the changes we now see in the climate are, for the most part, not caused by human activity? What if they’re part of a natural cycle of climate change? We can’t control that; all we can do is adapt and learn to live with it.
“What if they’re part of a natural cycle of climate change?”
There is too much money and prestige riding on that not being the case.
It’s funny because whenever it gets really cold we’re told it’s not climate, it’s weather. But when it gets really hot, apparently that’s climate, not weather.
Once upon a time climate scientists told us to expect a global freezing, that a new ice age was imminent, then there was the hole in the ozone layer melting the ice caps, then it was global warming. Now its climate change, I guess they gave up on predicting if its getting warmer or colder. How does this climate science have any credibility.
Boss: are we making or losing money?
George: All I can tell you is that the money we have will be different from yesterday.
Boss: you’re fired.
More details on the ‘once upon a time’ bit about climate scientists predicting global freezing would be helpful – or is this just impressionistic? And there’s really quite a bit of stuff available about the credibility of current climate science,
Google is you friend there Andrew, global freezing was climate science through out the 70’s
I confirm what George Glashan said. When I was a lad, global freezing was quite the fashionable thing. Peddling the new ice age scenario was the route to success in the academic rat race of the time, just as peddling anthropomorphic climate change is today. Science is as corruptible as any other human activity, and when there is money involved don’t stand in front of the stampede. Of course, the real skill lies in being able to swap horses part way through without falling off.
True, but note the possibility that a warming planet could involve a threshold phase shift to regional glaciation – rapidly shifting magnetic poles aside. It’s like trying fix a part-diagnosed car engine fault whilst swerving down a part known track towards a cliff (over it or into it who cares). See link: https://www.whoi.edu/know-your-ocean/ocean-topics/climate-ocean/abrupt-climate-change/are-we-on-the-brink-of-a-new-little-ice-age/
14 times as many people die of cold each year and whilst global warming does drive maximum temperatures higher, most of the average temperature increase is accounted for by increases in the lowest temperatures, ie milder winters, more than cancelling out the total rise in heat deaths.
Also, whilst heatwaves are deadly, we are already perfectly able to adapt to them. Roll outs of air conditioning have reduced heat related deaths by 50-60% over the last few decades and are a cost effective fix.
I recommend you read some of Bjorn Lomborg’s writings on the subject.
‘Several of Bjørn Lomborg’s articles in newspapers such as The Wall Street Journal and The Daily Telegraph have been checked by Climate Feedback, a worldwide network of scientists who collectively assess the credibility of influential climate change media coverage. The Climate Feedback reviewers assessed that the scientific credibility ranged between “low” and “very low”.’ Just Wikipedia, but worth wondering about.
Thanks. Always good to have a broad range of sources and see what the counter arguments are. It will be interesting to see which of his claims they disagree with.
Especially since Lomberg takes the bulk of his data from the IPCC!
We should always remember that the so-called “fact-checkers” have skin in the game.
“the most extreme humid heat is highly localized in both space and time” (from the Science Advances paper linked to)
In other words, areas with extreme wet bulb temperatures, like deserts with dry heat, or arctic and antarctic locations with extremes of cold, will be relatively easy to avoid, or to use technology to mitigate the effects.
Science-scare articles often use linguistic sleights of hand. For example, a doubling of prevalence can accurately be labelled as ‘more widespread’. But if it’s a doubling from 0.0001% to 0.0002%, then ‘widespread’ (alone) which is often picked up in lay papers is entirely false. Here there is huge write up of potential ‘severity’ without really noting how easy it is to avoid.
Media reporting has been poor and may too have contributed to overemphases of data demanding far clearer qualification.
There was also a very nasty cold spell in Texas this year. Please don’t say this was just a freak weather incident. I recently read that the current Heat Dome in British Columbia is comparable to heatwaves during La Niña, which, according to the climate scientists, had nothing to do with Global Warming.
I really would like UnHerd to publish one of many scientists, who have other scientific explanations of natural occurring Warming, than the usual suspects who are just part of the Herd of Main Stream thinking.
Don’t forget ocean dynamics. See: https://www.whoi.edu/know-your-ocean/ocean-topics/climate-ocean/abrupt-climate-change/are-we-on-the-brink-of-a-new-little-ice-age/
The BBC, which is an environmental campaigner, has been foregrounding this heatwave for days. The real issue is not whether it is getting hotter but what to do about it. And that in turn requires an adaptive response to what will be a hotter world, not endlessly going on about cutting emissions and “net zero”. There is some sign that the BBC is beginning to see this. But not much.
Mitigation is no longer enough alone, so adaptation is more critical. Both are needed,
Climate change today is what Satan used to be. A name for blame of anything seen as frightening or evil. So extreme weather is not extreme weather it is climate change.
What world do you come from that you think Satan was used to mean frightening? Satan was used to refer to the master of Evil, a very particular issue of ultimate, intentional, malevolence. Your post and upvotes show the young today have 100% disassociated from the entire human culture of the even recent past.
I will echo what a number of people have said and ask for articles discussing both sides of the climate change debate: man made vs natural occurrence.
“In decades to come swathes of the world will resemble British Columbia today”
As I have been hanging out in Vancouver BC a lot in my life I assume you mean the swaths will become second Provinces of China. Richmond BC was my old hangout, even in the 1980s it was called Hong-Couver.
Sad to see the old British ways so disregarded even though USA readership and neighbors remain in F, the European C is the only measurement here, and the Queens head is still the symbol of state in Canada.
I remember the horrible 1971 change over from the proud Roman system, and two thousand years of British usage, of proper money: farthing, haypenny, tuppence, thruppence, sixpence, shilling, florin, half crown, crown, ten bob, pound, and guinea when one British Pound = 240 pence. Then meters, and C and the EU taking over, a sad time.
The end result of all this is young people who have absolutely no ability at basic arithmetic – in the old days we could add up 3-8-4p and 3-5p and 13-9p in our heads, and then subtract it from a five pound note mentally…Now youth cannot add 47 and 19 without using their phones.
Also – WHY did you not give the ‘Wet Bulb Temp’ when it was 49.6 C? (this takes into account humidity of the air) since you went on about it.
The 12 based system was excellent! You modern folk have no idea. I do the trades in USA where 12 inches = 1 foot and 4 ft is the standard measure base.
10 is divisible by 2 and 5, or 1/5 and 1/2, hardly useful for building.
12 is divisible by 2, 3, 4, 6. 1/6, 1/3, 1/4, 1/2. Carpentry in USA is based on 16 inch center, 16, 32, 48 mostly, or 12 inch center, 12, 24, 36, 48 or 24 center, 24, 48.
One inch is divided by 1/32, 1/16/ 1/8/ 1/4, 1/2. Every 4 foot length, 8, 12, 16, 20, can be broken into easy whole numbers or simple, compatible, fractions without any .33333 or 0.125, or .0625 that are so hard to add up and make to ‘Break’.
The 13 knot string was histories greatest builder tool – 12 increments, and can be used to find square (right triangle at knot 3, 7, and closed at 12 makes 90 degrees, the 13 knot string (12 lengths between knots, base 12) was to find any useful angle, and length – an AMAZING tool.
Base 10 is for calculating, not making, it is not natural, 360, 180, 90 is how we still do circles, (12 based) and time, because it is NATURAL math, as it reflects the real world, not some paper calculation.
Carpenter’s squares are still what the world is built with, 360/90 degrees, not 100/10 – Napoleon, the guy who forced decimalization, wanted decriminalize clocks, calendars, circles, it is not usefull as it is not natural maths except for calculations on paper.
Any chance of getting some of that heat dome over to the UK?
Because it’s been bloody pissing down all over the b*****d place for a month now and I’m sick of it.
I remember back in the 70s my eldest brother scaring me about the imminent return of the ice age….
All a bit of a mystery, but perhaps Unherd’s scientist readers can publish here what they see as the unheard science base?