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A Georgian nightmare (Photo by GIORGI ARJEVANIDZE/AFP via Getty Images)
Before the war in Ukraine, before the annexation of Crimea, there was Georgia. Back in 2008, Russia’s invasion of the country was, to Western eyes, an anomaly — on nearly every other metric, Putin’s Russia was on comparatively friendly terms with the US and Europe, and international cooperation with the West was at an all-time high.
Yet 16 years later, there’s no doubt that the Russo-Georgian War marked the start of a new era in Russia’s relationship with its near abroad, culminating in the invasion of Ukraine and the shadow conflict with the West that followed. Now, after all, Georgia has once again become the epicentre of this new Cold War. It’s just that this time, Russia and its proxies are using ballot boxes rather than tanks to capture the Georgian state.
Ahead of the country’s pivotal parliamentary elections on 26 October, Georgian liberals were cautiously optimistic. For the first time in years, the country’s fractured opposition stood a chance of ousting the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party from power. Initially favourable exit polls only confirmed their hope. But soon enough, their excitement was dashed. Despite pursuing a highly divisive policy agenda — including the passage of an infamous foreign agent law in May, dovetailed by more recent laws limiting LGBT activity — Georgian Dream secured a stunning 54% of the vote.
The same evening, opposition parties appeared on national TV, denouncing the vote as illegitimate. Among other things, they cited electoral fraud, violence, and intimidation. Videos of a Georgian Dream loyalist stuffing ballots into a box went viral across Georgian media, as did clips of government supporters attacking election observers. Independent statistical analysis corroborated many of their claims. Over the following days, meanwhile, the country’s opposition-aligned president called for protests against the results of the election, accusing Russia of orchestrating Georgian Dream’s victory. The four main opposition parties also pledged to boycott Parliament, effectively incapacitating the Georgian Dream government.
Though investigations into the vote continue, the battle lines have already been drawn. So far, only Russia, Hungary, China, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan have recognised the result. On the other hand, the US, the EU, and various European governments have denounced the voting irregularities and expressed “alarm” at the electoral process. Already, Sweden has cut ties with the Georgian government over its democratic backsliding.
With few signs the opposition will back down, comparisons have already been made between Tbilisi and Kyiv’s Euromaidan revolution of 2014. Certainly, the showdown in Georgia could yet prove just as consequential: not just for the small mountain nation but for the whole post-Soviet space. Like Ukraine a decade ago, after all, Georgia has become ground zero for confrontation between Russia and the West.
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SubscribeSummary: we lost despite our interference, so it’s not fair. Let’s now pour even more time and money into a country barely anyone in the west can find on a map in order to show our cultural superiority, uh, I MEAN FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY.
On a more serious note, Georgia would in no way be vital to the west if the war with Russia wasn’t being escalated at every opportunity. It has a tiny population, it’s very russophile (despite the authors propagandistic take) and isn’t even connected to the EU. It is, however, located between Azerbaijan and the EU, and since the Americans blew up Nordstream and the EU has crippled it’s energy policy with the Ukraine war and their Green nonsense, this has now become “vital” because the EU has to take anything it can get.
The author is trying to sell meddling in Georgia as vital to western interests, which is ludicrous to anyone but crusading neocons, who keep pushing us closer to WW3 because they can’t stand the idea of there being other countries they can’t just topple at a whim.
The fact that this reeks of the sunk cost fallacy should in no way alarm you ladies and gentlemen. Keep calm and carry on undermining the “rules based order”, just don’t be surprised when it turns no one outside the western sphere is buying it anymore.
And yet an independant EU backed report on the conflict found that it was Georgia which initiated the conflict?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-georgia-russia-report/georgia-started-war-with-russia-eu-backed-report-idUSTRE58T4MO20090930/
“In the Mission’s view, it was Georgia which triggered off the war when it attacked Tskhinvali (in South Ossetia) with heavy artillery on the night of 7 to 8 August 2008,” said Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavini, who led the investigation.
The report said the war followed tensions and provocations by Russia, but Tagliavini said: “None of the explanations given by the Georgian authorities in order to provide some form of legal justification for the attack lend it a valid explanation.”
Saakashvili had said Georgia was responding to an invasion by Russian forces when it attacked breakaway South Ossetia, but the report found no evidence of this”
Thank you. It is only 16 years ago and yet history has been totally rewritten.
There are two articles on responsible statecraft at the moment that discuss the situation in Georgia, if you want a different perspective. It says that people are rushing to judgement before anything has been investigated properly:
‘She mixed accusations of electoral falsification with an appeal for “the firm support of our European and American partners to the part of Georgia that is European, that is the Georgian population.” This is a quite different argument. It implies that whatever the results of the elections, the only real “Georgian population” is the part that identifies with the West. Only their voice is truly legitimate, and a government that does not unconditionally follow the “European Path” is inherently illegitimate, elections or no elections.’
‘The most reliable monitoring historically has come from the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR). Its preliminary comments on the elections:
“Imbalances in financial resources, a divisive campaign atmosphere, and recent legislative amendments were of significant concern throughout this election process… Yet the engagement shown on election day—from the active voter participation, robust presence of citizen and party observers, and rich diversity of voices—gives the sign of a system that is still growing and evolving, with a democratic vitality under construction.” ‘
The other article talks about the fact that concerns about the economy were one of the top priorities for voters, it talks about how the Ukraine war caused inflation and explains that Georgian trade links with the EU haven’t actually been that beneficial, that maintaining ties with Russia is also important for their economy:
‘ But his economic approach in Georgia has been driven by specifically Georgian considerations. And elections always, ultimately, get tipped by domestic issues.
But Western politicians, journalists, and NGOs have cynically, and in a way, willfully ignored the wider economic picture, and have instead spun up the election as an existential struggle between Europe (European Union) and Russia. There is so much nuance here that needs to be examined and is not.’By today’s election count, it would seem a majority of Georgian people chose prosperity over war. It’s time to let Georgia’s government get back to the task of strengthening their wonderful country still further.’
Both articles can be found here, look for the headlines:
Georgia: Election was just as much about the economy
An unfortunate rush to judgment in Georgia elections
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/georgia-elections-europe/
The rush to judgement in the western media is not wise.
Western media did the same with Ukraine, the concerns of the Russian speaking people in the eastern regions of Ukraine were ignored and not sufficiently reported.
Just in case anyone wants to read the OSCE response to the elections in full…
https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/georgia/579376
B. Emery’s quote from it is about the only praiseful line there, and the “democratic vitality” mentioned refers to the large number of oppostion groups voters could choose from, and the fact that they hadn’t all been knobbled. The word “Intimidation” occurs 6 times, and “pressure” 10 times.
My quote was from the responsible state craft article, thank you for posting the full osce response, it is also linked off the article I have shared. If you read the article I have linked it continues:
‘Though far from a ringing endorsement, this does not allege that the elections were rigged.
‘ Western institutions and commentators should therefore wait for the final OSCE/ODIHR report before drawing firm conclusions.
You say:
‘ and the “democratic vitality” mentioned refers to the large number of oppostion groups voters could choose from, and the fact that they hadn’t all been knobbled. The word “Intimidation” occurs 6 times, and “pressure” 10 times. ‘
That doesn’t alter my points that firstly, the west shouldn’t be jumping to conclsions, secondly that the economy was a concern for voters and thirdly that the concerns of the voters that lean toward Russia, are ignored in western media. The article I have linked says:
‘Moreover, the government’s use of its financial and administrative resources to tilt the result have been true of every Georgian election since independence (as well as some in the West’
So if this has been true of every election since independence, it sounds like this is not unusual either and no reason to treat this election as any different to the previous ones.
I think the link you have posted is to the osces preliminary comments. The article I have linked states that:
Western institutions and commentators should therefore wait for the final OSCE/ODIHR report before drawing firm conclusions.
Drawing conclusions about who and who hasn’t been ‘knobbled’ is therefore very difficult at this stage.
Hmmm…the description of election irregularities sounds like what us going on in the US. The story against Russia would be more credible if the engineered coup in Ukraine was not a reality
No engineered coup. But you know that of course. You just lie either for money or ideological reasons.
Yeah, Victoria Nuland was there for the lovely atmosphere of freedom and democracy.
On a separate note, I’ve got a bridge I’d like to sell you…
Victoria Nuland wanted pro western parties to win, unsurprisingly. Did the Ukrainians actually vote for Zelensky?
But in any case there is no symmetry between western and Russian levels of “interference” and the West hasn’t actually mounted military action in any of the states involved!
Micael, disagreeing with your opinion is not lying. There is excellent evidence, from Americans who enabled it in their own words, that supports opinion.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/victoria-nuland-russian-interference/
‘Nuland was on the ground there and can be seen in photographs handing out sandwiches to demonstrators. As President Viktor Yanukovych was being tossed out, Nuland was recorded in a conversation with U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, plotting who was in or out of the mix as a new Ukraine government was being assembled.
Victoria Nuland, whose infamous words “f-ck the EU” epitomized American primacy as it worked to mold the Ukrainian government after the 2014 revolution and helped to set up the country for a brutal showdown with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, ‘
Coincidentally this is on their homepage right now.
“Handing out sandwiches”! Hilarious! Wow, what powerful cynical geopolitical If only Putin showed that level of commitment to “his” side….
I never denied that US and the west supported the revolution of dignity. Just like the Soviet Union in various ways supported decolonization in the third world. But they didn’t instigate and cause it just like the west didn’t instigate and cause the revolution of dignity.
And calling a revolution a coup is lying, since it totally misrepresents known facts. But if you have a definition of coups that would turn the French Revolution into the French Coup you could probably talk about the maidan revolution as the maidan coup, otherwise not.
This is an incredible article – it lays out the Euroatlanticist strategy and narrative without any pretence whatsoever. An election is only legitimate if the right people win. If the right people don’t win, a colour revolution has to be arranged to reverse the people’s verdict.
It is the Euroatlanticists who are determined to turn Georgia into the next Ukraine, without any compunction about how the first attempt at “let’s you and he fight” in 2008 turned out, or the devastation now being wrought on Ukraine.
If these plans succeed, it will do nothing to “Putin’s power”, but it will break Georgia, like it has broken Ukraine.
Enough already.
Views from Election Observers published on the OSCE website:
https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/georgia/579376
Some quotes. “These elections were marked by high polarisation of the political and media landscape, hate speech against the opposition and the civil society and antagonism towards the office of the President,” said Iulian Bulai, Head of the PACE delegation.
OSCE: “The election administration organized the elections efficiently, but the public perception of its impartiality was harmed by concerns about recent changes over its nomination and decision-making processes, as well as perceived links between members without formal political affiliation and the ruling party… Election day was generally well organized procedurally and orderly, but it was marked by a tense environment. The secrecy of the vote was frequently compromised and there were reports of intimidation and pressure on voters.”
“While the campaign offered voters a wide choice in the run-up to Georgia’s parliamentary elections, which was good to see that is not enough to bring an election in line with international democratic principles,” said Eoghan Murphy, who headed the ODIHR (OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights) election observation mission. “The deep polarisation in the country, the undue pressure on voters and civil society, and the tension that we saw on election day demonstrate that much work is still needed.”
Summary: we lost despite our interference, so it’s not fair. Let’s now pour even more time and money into a country barely anyone in the west can find on a map in order to show our superiority, uh, I mean FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY.
On a more serious note, Georgia would in no way be vital to the west if the war with Russia wasn’t being escalated at every opportunity. It has a tiny population, it’s very russophile (despite the authors propagandistic take) and isn’t even connected to the EU. It is, however, located between Azerbaijan and the EU, and since the Americans blew up Nordstream and the EU has crippled it’s energy policy with the Ukraine war and their Green nonsense, this has now become “vital” because the EU has to take anything it can get.
The author is trying to sell meddling in Georgia as vital to western interests, which is ludicrous to anyone but crusading neocons, who keep pushing us closer to WW3 because they can’t stand the idea of there being other countries they can’t just topple at a whim.
The fact that this reeks of the sunk cost fallacy should in no way alarm you ladies and gentlemen. Keep calm and carry on undermining the “rules based order”, just don’t be surprised when it turns no one outside the western sphere is buying it anymore.
Fortunately, most Georgians don’t want to be any kind of new Ukraine. Those who’ve naively been drawn into foreigners’ games of ‘smashing Putin’s power’ have no way engaging the national interest and most will probably emigrate as a consequence. Yet again, Washington’s Neocons show they’re only good at breaking up countries. But that doesn’t necessarily work to advance any kind of Western interest.
The downside of ramping up Ukrainian factions against Russians in their country is only too well understood in multi-cultural parts of Eastern Europe. It’s no longer possible to promote liberalisation in several such countries because they see where being geopolitically weaponised leads. It’s not to peace and security, let alone prosperity, as once promised, but to the front line in someone else’s war.
Ukraine chose its own course.
Georgia may be far too important to abandon. It is absolutely too far to protect.
Many comments here snarling at western policy. Out of 10 I read, not one leveled a word of criticism or anger at Russia for intimidating it’s near abroad into submission. I’m no neocon. Spheres of influence make some sense to me. But let’s not ignore or give a free pass to the bad guy in all this. And let’s not forgive Russia by blaming USA hubris in the 90s.
Who is giving them a free pass.
Russia has likely influenced their elections, it is discussed in the articles I have linked. So is the fact the EU and it’s various ngos have had their influence.
Words of criticism and anger directed at russia are all well and good, but I’m not sure the kremlin is reading right now, what do you think that would achieve.
There is nothing to stop you from doing that.
What do you propose by ‘not forgiving’ Russia.
Do you think that we should intervene in the Georgian elections then?
How far do you think western intervention should go?
End of the day, Georgia is a victim of its geography. More and more of these hapless lands will slip back into the darkness of Russian hegemony. Ukraine, on the other hand, arguably, makes a better buffer than Poland. IMHO. Again, this is about Putin, useful idiot meddling ngos aside.
What is your point though. You have made a series of irrelevant statements really.
What evidence do you have to support your statement that ‘these hapless lands’ will slide back into darkness. Despite moaning about the comments you clearly haven’t read the reports I linked above:
‘Taking a step back, Georgia has become an economic dynamo since 2012 through its sovereign endeavors. This small, proud nation with a population of 3.1 million, ranks number 7 in the World Bank’s ease of doing business index, ahead of the UK and every EU country except Denmark.
Average economic growth has been a throaty 5.2%, 6.2% percent if you subtract the pandemic contraction in 2020. GDP per capita has increased by 79%. According to the World Bank, poverty reduced from 70.6% to 40.1% between 2010 and 2023, through sound macroeconomic management. There’s still more work to do to get it lower.’
So Georgia is doing anything but sliding into darkness. You are talking nonsense.
What do you mean ukraine makes a better buffer than Poland?
Are you suggesting that russia will try to take control of Ukraine?
Your last question is almost unbelievable. OF COURSE Putin wishes to control, if not completely absorb, Ukraine! If RW voices who caution against western hubris and overreach want to be taken seriously, they should make serious points.
The West has many faults in foreign policy and otherwise. Putin however is a good plated proven liar (see the invasion, Salisbury and many other cases). I wish for a peaceful accommodation – it’s not easy however with an opponent who is so untrustworthy.