Why Georgia is the new Ukraine Defeat in Tbilisi would shatter Putin's power

The same evening, opposition parties appeared on national TV, denouncing the vote as illegitimate. Among other things, they cited electoral fraud, violence, and intimidation. Videos of a Georgian Dream loyalist stuffing ballots into a box went viral across Georgian media, as did clips of government supporters attacking election observers. Independent statistical analysis corroborated many of their claims. Over the following days, meanwhile, the country’s opposition-aligned president called for protests against the results of the election, accusing Russia of orchestrating Georgian Dream’s victory. The four main opposition parties also pledged to boycott Parliament, effectively incapacitating the Georgian Dream government.

Though investigations into the vote continue, the battle lines have already been drawn. So far, only Russia, Hungary, China, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan have recognised the result. On the other hand, the US, the EU, and various European governments have denounced the voting irregularities and expressed “alarm” at the electoral process. Already, Sweden has cut ties with the Georgian government over its democratic backsliding.

With few signs the opposition will back down, comparisons have already been made between Tbilisi and Kyiv’s Euromaidan revolution of 2014. Certainly, the showdown in Georgia could yet prove just as consequential: not just for the small mountain nation but for the whole post-Soviet space. Like Ukraine a decade ago, after all, Georgia has become ground zero for confrontation between Russia and the West.

And while the slaughter in the Ukraine may be the shadow conflict’s most dramatic expression, it’s in Georgia where Russia’s ability to dominate its neighbours is being tested most vividly. “Russia will say that ‘we win like always.’ But Russia will lose this battle against Ukraine and Georgia,” says Luka, a 21-year-old student at an opposition-led protest on Monday. “We will fight until we die.”

Certainly, the stakes for young Georgians couldn’t be higher. For those eager to finally join the European Union — according to one poll from last year, that’s almost 90% of the population — the fight is existential. If Georgian Dream’s victory holds, the country’s EU ambitions are dead. Democratic politics more generally is fighting for survival too: Georgian Dream has pledged to outlaw the majority of opposition parties, likening Saturday’s vote to the Nuremberg Trials.

Given this polarised atmosphere, there are only a few ways the crisis could end, especially when both the West and Russia have so much to lose. Having staked their reputation on challenging the election results, opposition parties are unlikely to accept a Georgian Dream government. If the opposition maintains its boycott of Parliament, and the president continues to refuse to approve the new government, Georgian Dream will be unable to hold parliamentary sessions without two-thirds of elected members being present. That, in turn, would make Georgian Dream — and by extension Russian — unable to legally govern.

In such a situation, Georgian Dream could conceivably choose to buck the law and sidestep the opposition entirely, leading to a constitutional crisis and putting Georgia on an even more perilous collision course with the EU and the US. Brussels and Washington, for their part, are already looking to expand their sanctions against the party.

On the other hand, Georgia could head for a political stand-off in which neither Georgian Dream nor the pro-Western opposition budge. That would doubtless lead to political paralysis: which Russia would be sure to exploit. Already, officials in Moscow have stated that they’re prepared to intervene on Georgian Dream’s behalf if the situation called for it. Nor is this bullishness very surprising. As I explained back in May, Georgia’s position by the Black Sea, along both trade routes and energy pipelines, makes it strategically vital to both Russia and Nato.

Beyond Georgia itself, meanwhile, a Russian victory here would have repercussions much further afield. Consider Armenia, which has been slipping away from Moscow for years, but which is nonetheless dependent on Georgia for transit. To put it differently, Russian domination of Georgia could force Yerevan to move back towards Moscow’s orbit too. The fall of Georgia could equally demoralise anti-Kremlin movements in places like Moldova and even Kazakhstan.

There are other reasons for Russia to force the issue in Georgia too. The war in Ukraine may be going reasonably well — but fighting a full-scale war is nonetheless risky, costly and domestically destabilising. On the other hand, electoral trickery of the sort Moscow’s trying in Georgia is relatively straightforward, and indeed has been part of its playbook for years. The point, clear enough from Baku to Almaty, is this: if Russia gets away with state capture in Tbilisi, it can do the same anywhere.

While, in short, the Euromaidan revolution was the first attempt to reverse Russian domination of its near abroad, Georgia has now become another kind of test case: is it possible that Putin’s expansionism can be defeated through peaceful means alone? And while the fight in Tbilisi is only just beginning, and Western powers are so far holding back, escalation is inevitable — Georgia, and all it represents, is far too important to abandon.

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Michal Kranz is a freelance journalist reporting on politics and society in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and the United States.

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