Trump launches his New York heist He sees a chance for blood in the Bronx

This is Trump’s first rally in his hometown of New York in eight years. But Joe Biden’s lead in the state has slipped from 23% to single digits (9%) this year and there is little sign he is clawing any of that support back. Although the state — and the Bronx — remains solidly blue, it may only take a few seats in the House to give Republicans control of the lower chamber of Congress. Evidently, Trump smells blood.

“I’ve been a lifelong Democrat, but I’ve had enough,” Emilio says. “I stayed at home during the last election, but food prices are so bad now there is just no way I’m voting for Biden. I feel betrayed.” Emilio is here with his wife and three young children, who all hold their own “Never Surrender” placard featuring Trump’s mugshot. They’ve managed to secure a prime viewing spot for Trump, who takes to the stage after his day in court in Manhattan.

He is greeted by hordes of supporters, soaking in the adulation with his familiar half-pout. “I’m a New Yorker,” he proudly booms. “Out here, you had to have smarts, grit, and energy — and you had to have heart.” “This is where you came to make it big,” he continues, “but now it is a city in decline.”

It is a point not without merit. Crime may be falling in some areas, but major felony charges which include murder, rape, robbery are on the rise. New York also has the highest per capita government debt in the country, with the state projecting a budget gap of $4.3 billion in fiscal year 2025. This has been turbocharged by the influx of migrants into the city, which is estimated to cost $12 billion over three years, more than the city spends on fire and sanitation services combined. It’s no wonder, then, that the state has the highest emigration rate in the country.

But is Trump the man to fix it? “Name me another politician that would come to deep Bronx like this” Wayne, who is holding a “New York is TRUMP country” sign, says. “It shows that he actually gives a damn — unlike AOC and Biden.” I ask how Trump can fix the city if it is run by Democrats. “Because he’s a goddamn businessman and he knows how to get things done” — a point Trump repeats himself on stage.

Like Wayne, the Bronx crowd is loud, profane and assertive. They are, after all, New Yorkers. They may not look like Trump, but they certainly sound like him. His is the kind of voice that these locals would tune into on a drive home from the Yankees game on a Sunday afternoon, bemoaning the team’s lacklustre performance. Which is why, as Jamie Kirchick of the Brookings Institution accurately observed, everything makes a lot more sense when Trump’s comments are prefaced with “‘Donny from Queens, you’re on the air.” Giving his hot takes on everything from men in women’s sports to New York’s “third-world” subway system at the podium, Donny sees himself as New York’s everyman. He’s the guy who’s going to fix everything. “If a New Yorker can’t save this country, no one can,” he says. “Obviously, only I can save it”.

Although Trump lost the Bronx by more than 300,000 votes in 2020, the swelling crowd suggests many more are now willing to hear what he has to say. He is speaking in the poorest congressional district in the country, and residents here seem tired of decades-long Democratic rule. Juan Ramirez, who works at a nearby bodega, says that his living situation became so serious last year that there were days where he had to choose between paying for fuel or food. “If I wasn’t able to get some food from my bodega, I’m not sure how I would have fed my family.”

Amid Trump’s growing support among ethnic minority groups, Ramirez is one of many Latinos abandoning the Democratic flock. “They took our votes for granted for too long,” he says. “They deserve to be punished for all the pain they’ve put us through.” And if the latest polls are anything to go by, he’s not alone. Some now show the former president edging out Joe Biden among Hispanic voters, with 46% supporting Trump versus 40% in favour of Biden — another reason why Trump may find favour here: the Bronx is 57% Hispanic, 28% black and just 8% white.

Ramirez has more to share, but he is distracted by a ruckus nearby; a group has caught wind of a roving New York Times reporter, who is trying to slink back into the press pack. One of the men confronting the reporter — a friend of Juan’s — is accusing her of furtively filming his exchange with friends. “I said I DID NOT WANT TO TALK to crooked media,” he screams at her. The message is received.

The crowd might have once been the Democrats’ rainbow coalition: in addition to Latinos, African-Americans and white voters, there are native Americans, Orthodox Jews, and even Albanians dressed in traditional clothing. All punctuate Trump’s speech with “let’s go Brandon!” and “USA, USA!” as he detours into an extended tangent about the importance of brine in ice rinks or starts reading lyrics from Al Wilson’s ‘The Snake’. And just as he feels that he might be losing them, Trump dials up the enthusiasm. “What a crowd!” He says. “This is like a love fest — I love you! Who said we’re not gonna win New York? We’re gonna win New York and win the whole thing!”

It is highly unlikely that Trump will, in fact, win New York. It has been 44 years since a Republican won the state and Biden won it handily in 2020. But green shoots for the GOP are starting to emerge: for the first time in 40 years, a Republican was elected to a city council seat in the Bronx. In Queens, the incumbent Republican Vickie Paladino was overwhelmingly re-elected against a Democratic challenger whom she beat by only a few hundred votes in 2021. Trump may not be the ultimate beneficiary of these changes, but he is certainly an accelerant.

Back in 2020, Biden ran a successful campaign by promising a return to normality. Most of the country, Democrats included, would concede that, on this score, he failed. Stubbornly high food and gas prices, two costly wars, and a crisis on the border, it is now Trump who claims to be the “common sense” candidate. As the only candidate to face 92 felony charges in an election year, this is a tall claim. But given that Biden, who has record low job approval polling, is trailing in nearly all of the swing states, Trump fever now appears to be spreading to the Democrats’ innermost strongholds. Even if New York doesn’t turn red, this rally was the surest signal yet that Republicans are feeling increasingly confident about parking their tanks on the Democrats’ lawn.

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is UnHerd’s Newsroom editor.

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