Here’s my prediction for the election in November, and it’s going to get me massively downvoted: Biden will win by a decisive margin, although certainly not a landslide.
As the author notes, Trump is making the campaign about him rather than explicitly about the American people. That is perhaps not so bad for him as the author suggests. We can all see the lawfare, and mediafare, being waged against him, and many people view that as an attack on his supporters too: it’s the “elite” with a boot on the necks of the “deplorables”. And people resent that, and they recognize it’s fundamentally undemocratic. So Trump’s troubles will, to an extent, help him at the polls.
But I would suggest the main reason the Dems are likely to win is because they’re better organized than the Republicans. Just before the midterms we were informed a “red wave” was forming that would give Republicans control of both houses of Congress. Never materialized and I wasn’t surprised. I was bombarded with messages from the Dems right up to the midterm elections; hardly a peep from the Republicans. Sadly, the Republicans are too busy in-fighting to effectively fight a general election, imo.
Hopefully I’m wrong, but I suspect not. I have no idea what another four years of Biden will do to our country.
If you look deeper at how they’re calculating the Jobs numbers, the Economy looks like a Potemkin Village. Look at the amount of government and part time jobs making up the totals.
That said, I agree with you. I can’t see Trump winning a mail-in ballot competition against a highly organized political machine campaigning on abortion.
I can’t see any party or candidate winning against the leviathan that has captured virtually all our institutions. Perhaps America needs to experience totalitarianism firsthand before coming to its senses.
Democrats are very, very good at elections. They also have many more billionaire backers, a huge war-chest of funds through PACs, and a thoroughly compliant media to call on, and a large, disciplined, trained and focused ground crew to direct, and the whole of Washington DC behind them.
Even though there is a lot of tub-thumping and grievance on the Republican-side, they remain a mess of an organisation, not least because of the establishment holdovers, but also because they lack capable political operators.
If Biden does win how long do you think he will last? Another 4 years seems improbable.
Arthur King
25 days ago
The economy is not booming in Canada.
Samuel Ross
25 days ago
This article is useless. Being a mingling of some half-way decent analysis with a heaping spoonful of partisan falsehoods and innuendo, the author is trying to sound wiser than he really is.
Matt Hindman
25 days ago
Is this another one of those special magical talking points things where the powers that be just repeat the same load of crap over and over again hoping it will transform reality? Yeah, it sure looks that way on this end. Let’s try this again. If your wages are not able to keep up with the (not transitory) inflation, the economy sucks. If the job market is supposedly booming but good jobs are hard to come by and you know a lot of people who have checked out of the workforce entirely, the economy sucks. If you know young people who are still living with their parents even when they have a job because renting or buying is too expensive, the economy sucks. Want me to get into any of the current issues with financial institutions, healthcare costs, being unable to even afford a basic vacation, old people working until well past retirement, deindustrialization or any other of the myriad of things normal b***h to each other about when they are at work grabbing coffee or paying the bills?
People feel – rightly- that they’re worse off whilst the media talking points tell them how fabulous the Emperor’s new set of clothes are …. And those cool aviators, man.
Paddy Taylor
25 days ago
But the economy isn’t booming. There’s little point in trying to convince someone that they’re benefitting from the Stock Market gaining, when they’re struggling to meet their bills.
Inflation has hit consumers hard and wage growth for the majority of blue collar America hasn’t come close to making up the shortfall.
Biden’s powerhouse economy is a chimera, a fiction
Biden, in 3 years has run up greater debt than any other President in history. Trump is responsible for a portion of it – but at least had Covid and the closing down of the whole US economy as an excuse. US National Debt currently stands at over $34 TRILLION – simply servicing that debt costs considerably more each year than is spent on defence.
By 2030 servicing that debt pile will cost 50c of every dollar raised in taxes. In 10 years, servicing that debt will cost more than the total tax take that’s currently raised. It is definitionally unsustainable, yet Biden continues to spend like a divorcee going out for one last spree on their soon-to-be-ex’s credit card.
Anyone who looks at that and imagines the economy has been well-managed is a fool.
As to Gas prices – Joe’s Green Agenda completely undermined America’s energy security and was the reason for the drastic hike in US gas prices – one of the biggest contributory factors for the inflation spiral.
Under Trump the US was entirely energy self-sufficient and receiving huge revenues from selling the excess.
Biden can’t run on his domestic record, and certainly can’t run on his foreign policies because his record cannot stand up to the merest scrutiny, thus he can only run on Fear of Trump. Fear is all he has.
Sadly, that fear might be enough. It’s not just the entirety of the Dems who oppose Trump, it’s a fair number of Repubs, too, which should make any curious person wonder.
Agreed, but the big missing part of this piece is, as George mentions below, interest rates are still out of whack. This has meant house prices are well out of reach for many would-be homebuyers, especially younger Americans — who really ought to be ready to vote against Biden, but will they?
Susan Grabston
25 days ago
Biden’s problem is the disconnect between the official data and the real economy. Many Fed metrics and models are being actively discredited as revisions become as frequent as the original publication dates. Shadowstats data tells us what’s going on, and whilst inflation is hard to identify, it’s as acutely felt as first love. So yes, attempted gaslighing, which won’t work. Does that mean Trump wins? Not necessarily. Biden will pull every stop out – liquidity spiggots still open, further student debt forgiveness in the offing, US oil/gas production put into super drive, much foreign policy driven by desire for low gas pump prices now the SPR is squandered, etc. Economic manipulation and bribery will sit alongside the upbeat narrative, and – of course – lawfare, mail-in ballot fraud, etc.
Dumetrius
25 days ago
.
Allison Barrows
24 days ago
“The economy is booming” is the same as “crime is down”. Neither, of course, is true. It’s just the bullsh*t governments concoct when they change their grades from Fs to Bs and send their media minions off to give us the phony report card.
And everyone knows that Biden is a drugged-up demi-corpse with zero decision-making authority, so why not just say it: America is being run by committees of unelected Ivy League ignoramuses. Now, run along to San Francisco and steal your $950.00 a day worth of merchandise while stores remain open.
Alex Lekas
24 days ago
Give me a break. Each “spectacular” jobs report is later revised downward, a lot of jobs are either part-time or in govt, and inflation remains persistent along with a sense of the other shoe dropping. Joe is lying, the press is parroting his lies, and the gullible accept them. “The stock market is doing great.” Sure, until it isn’t. When Warren Buffet has billions parked on the sidelines, what does he know? When JP Morgan’s CEO is selling stock by the boatload, what does he know?
George Venning
24 days ago
The entire heft of this article is in that link about inflation.
For years, the Paul Krugmans of this world have been scolding people for not recognising what a great job Biden has been doing on the economy – essentially, wage growth is above inflation, you’re better off, why aren’t you slobs more grateful?
Except that as it turns out, inflation is miles above wage growth.
The link in the piece seems to go back to an article by that soft-hearted old lefty, Larry Summers, who points out that judgements about inflation are deeply subjective and that the measure you use matters. The difference between the old approach and the new, is that the former includes interest costs and the latter does not. Who knew that would turn out to be significant as we come off a decade of unprecedentedly low interest rates and ballooning personal debt levels?
The current approach to inflation excludes increases in mortgage costs and car payments. So, if you had a mortgage or a car loan or, (presumably) a student loan, your personal rate of inflation was probably better reflected in the old approach but, if you were debt free, it probably looks like the new one.
So, the economy is great if you exclude the things that account for, what, 30-40% of most working Americans’ household expenditure.
It isn’t that Trump is remotely better on this stuff but he lacks the Democrats’ habit of pissing down the nation’s back, telling it that it’s raining and expecting to be thanked for it. Good chance that will be enough I reckon.
Bryan Dale
24 days ago
Only ten percent of Americans read a daily paper. Even fewer use a horse and buggy to get to work.
No matter how much his followers might sympathise with him, they may not see how any of this will affect their own lives.
Unless, of course, his followers want their revenge too on all the people who have regarded them as ‘deplorables’ and sneered at their concerns.
Francis Twyman
24 days ago
I wonder if the economy will still be “booming” when the US national debt reaches about 50 trillion by 2030, it’s a continuation of the debt bubble, is it really sustainable? I suppose it’s booming for some people who are benefiting from the massive deficits, but all this deficit spending of course is inflationary, no wonder the average worker feels no progress, the giant ponzi scheme continues to increase the massive inequalities, and will continue until the great debt bubble bursts. When it does, the average person will of course pay the price again, as the rich run for cover. The system is rigged folks, and will continue to be rigged
Ben H
24 days ago
This article fail to mention that immigration is now the number one concern for Americans. This is an issue that the Republicans own and everyone knows that they take it more seriously than the current administration.
Here’s my prediction for the election in November, and it’s going to get me massively downvoted: Biden will win by a decisive margin, although certainly not a landslide.
As the author notes, Trump is making the campaign about him rather than explicitly about the American people. That is perhaps not so bad for him as the author suggests. We can all see the lawfare, and mediafare, being waged against him, and many people view that as an attack on his supporters too: it’s the “elite” with a boot on the necks of the “deplorables”. And people resent that, and they recognize it’s fundamentally undemocratic. So Trump’s troubles will, to an extent, help him at the polls.
But I would suggest the main reason the Dems are likely to win is because they’re better organized than the Republicans. Just before the midterms we were informed a “red wave” was forming that would give Republicans control of both houses of Congress. Never materialized and I wasn’t surprised. I was bombarded with messages from the Dems right up to the midterm elections; hardly a peep from the Republicans. Sadly, the Republicans are too busy in-fighting to effectively fight a general election, imo.
Hopefully I’m wrong, but I suspect not. I have no idea what another four years of Biden will do to our country.
If you look deeper at how they’re calculating the Jobs numbers, the Economy looks like a Potemkin Village. Look at the amount of government and part time jobs making up the totals.
That said, I agree with you. I can’t see Trump winning a mail-in ballot competition against a highly organized political machine campaigning on abortion.
I can’t see any party or candidate winning against the leviathan that has captured virtually all our institutions. Perhaps America needs to experience totalitarianism firsthand before coming to its senses.
Democrats are very, very good at elections. They also have many more billionaire backers, a huge war-chest of funds through PACs, and a thoroughly compliant media to call on, and a large, disciplined, trained and focused ground crew to direct, and the whole of Washington DC behind them.
Even though there is a lot of tub-thumping and grievance on the Republican-side, they remain a mess of an organisation, not least because of the establishment holdovers, but also because they lack capable political operators.
If Biden does win how long do you think he will last? Another 4 years seems improbable.
The economy is not booming in Canada.
This article is useless. Being a mingling of some half-way decent analysis with a heaping spoonful of partisan falsehoods and innuendo, the author is trying to sound wiser than he really is.
Is this another one of those special magical talking points things where the powers that be just repeat the same load of crap over and over again hoping it will transform reality? Yeah, it sure looks that way on this end. Let’s try this again. If your wages are not able to keep up with the (not transitory) inflation, the economy sucks. If the job market is supposedly booming but good jobs are hard to come by and you know a lot of people who have checked out of the workforce entirely, the economy sucks. If you know young people who are still living with their parents even when they have a job because renting or buying is too expensive, the economy sucks. Want me to get into any of the current issues with financial institutions, healthcare costs, being unable to even afford a basic vacation, old people working until well past retirement, deindustrialization or any other of the myriad of things normal b***h to each other about when they are at work grabbing coffee or paying the bills?
Quite.
People feel – rightly- that they’re worse off whilst the media talking points tell them how fabulous the Emperor’s new set of clothes are …. And those cool aviators, man.
But the economy isn’t booming. There’s little point in trying to convince someone that they’re benefitting from the Stock Market gaining, when they’re struggling to meet their bills.
Inflation has hit consumers hard and wage growth for the majority of blue collar America hasn’t come close to making up the shortfall.
Biden’s powerhouse economy is a chimera, a fiction
Biden, in 3 years has run up greater debt than any other President in history. Trump is responsible for a portion of it – but at least had Covid and the closing down of the whole US economy as an excuse. US National Debt currently stands at over $34 TRILLION – simply servicing that debt costs considerably more each year than is spent on defence.
By 2030 servicing that debt pile will cost 50c of every dollar raised in taxes. In 10 years, servicing that debt will cost more than the total tax take that’s currently raised. It is definitionally unsustainable, yet Biden continues to spend like a divorcee going out for one last spree on their soon-to-be-ex’s credit card.
Anyone who looks at that and imagines the economy has been well-managed is a fool.
As to Gas prices – Joe’s Green Agenda completely undermined America’s energy security and was the reason for the drastic hike in US gas prices – one of the biggest contributory factors for the inflation spiral.
Under Trump the US was entirely energy self-sufficient and receiving huge revenues from selling the excess.
Biden can’t run on his domestic record, and certainly can’t run on his foreign policies because his record cannot stand up to the merest scrutiny, thus he can only run on Fear of Trump. Fear is all he has.
Sadly, that fear might be enough. It’s not just the entirety of the Dems who oppose Trump, it’s a fair number of Repubs, too, which should make any curious person wonder.
Agreed, but the big missing part of this piece is, as George mentions below, interest rates are still out of whack. This has meant house prices are well out of reach for many would-be homebuyers, especially younger Americans — who really ought to be ready to vote against Biden, but will they?
Biden’s problem is the disconnect between the official data and the real economy. Many Fed metrics and models are being actively discredited as revisions become as frequent as the original publication dates. Shadowstats data tells us what’s going on, and whilst inflation is hard to identify, it’s as acutely felt as first love. So yes, attempted gaslighing, which won’t work. Does that mean Trump wins? Not necessarily. Biden will pull every stop out – liquidity spiggots still open, further student debt forgiveness in the offing, US oil/gas production put into super drive, much foreign policy driven by desire for low gas pump prices now the SPR is squandered, etc. Economic manipulation and bribery will sit alongside the upbeat narrative, and – of course – lawfare, mail-in ballot fraud, etc.
.
“The economy is booming” is the same as “crime is down”. Neither, of course, is true. It’s just the bullsh*t governments concoct when they change their grades from Fs to Bs and send their media minions off to give us the phony report card.
And everyone knows that Biden is a drugged-up demi-corpse with zero decision-making authority, so why not just say it: America is being run by committees of unelected Ivy League ignoramuses. Now, run along to San Francisco and steal your $950.00 a day worth of merchandise while stores remain open.
Give me a break. Each “spectacular” jobs report is later revised downward, a lot of jobs are either part-time or in govt, and inflation remains persistent along with a sense of the other shoe dropping. Joe is lying, the press is parroting his lies, and the gullible accept them. “The stock market is doing great.” Sure, until it isn’t. When Warren Buffet has billions parked on the sidelines, what does he know? When JP Morgan’s CEO is selling stock by the boatload, what does he know?
The entire heft of this article is in that link about inflation.
For years, the Paul Krugmans of this world have been scolding people for not recognising what a great job Biden has been doing on the economy – essentially, wage growth is above inflation, you’re better off, why aren’t you slobs more grateful?
Except that as it turns out, inflation is miles above wage growth.
The link in the piece seems to go back to an article by that soft-hearted old lefty, Larry Summers, who points out that judgements about inflation are deeply subjective and that the measure you use matters. The difference between the old approach and the new, is that the former includes interest costs and the latter does not. Who knew that would turn out to be significant as we come off a decade of unprecedentedly low interest rates and ballooning personal debt levels?
The current approach to inflation excludes increases in mortgage costs and car payments. So, if you had a mortgage or a car loan or, (presumably) a student loan, your personal rate of inflation was probably better reflected in the old approach but, if you were debt free, it probably looks like the new one.
So, the economy is great if you exclude the things that account for, what, 30-40% of most working Americans’ household expenditure.
It isn’t that Trump is remotely better on this stuff but he lacks the Democrats’ habit of pissing down the nation’s back, telling it that it’s raining and expecting to be thanked for it. Good chance that will be enough I reckon.
Only ten percent of Americans read a daily paper. Even fewer use a horse and buggy to get to work.
Pretty sure they include those who read online.
Unless, of course, his followers want their revenge too on all the people who have regarded them as ‘deplorables’ and sneered at their concerns.
I wonder if the economy will still be “booming” when the US national debt reaches about 50 trillion by 2030, it’s a continuation of the debt bubble, is it really sustainable? I suppose it’s booming for some people who are benefiting from the massive deficits, but all this deficit spending of course is inflationary, no wonder the average worker feels no progress, the giant ponzi scheme continues to increase the massive inequalities, and will continue until the great debt bubble bursts. When it does, the average person will of course pay the price again, as the rich run for cover. The system is rigged folks, and will continue to be rigged
This article fail to mention that immigration is now the number one concern for Americans. This is an issue that the Republicans own and everyone knows that they take it more seriously than the current administration.