I really don’t follow the logic of this article, at all.
Ukraine is losing this war, badly and this has very serious consequences.
So much commentary about Ukraine is based in a delusional refusal to concede the battlefield facts; Ukraine has precisely as much chance of beating/resisting Russia than Mexico could beat the USA.
Ukraine will be lucky to emerge from this conflict with 50% of its pre-invasion territory and, if all Black Sea access is lost, its future is very bleak; a rump and impoverished, failed state.
Agree. Ukraine was well on its way to be a failed state long before the Russians crossed the border. Its population had fallen from close to 50 million at independence in 1991 to near 40 million by 2020. That was the result of endemic corruption piled on top of ethnic strife arising from a very large Russian speaking minority. Since the outset of the conflict 6-8 million have fled the country many of whom will never return.
Onto this stage steps Volodomyr Zelensky a political and diplomatic novice whose inner circle will come from his entertainment production company. In the late summer of 2021 he finds himself in Joe Biden’s Oval Office. Two months later Ukraine and the U.S sign the U.S./Ukraine Strategic Partnership in Washington. Many observers believe it is a further green light for Ukraine’s NATO membership. Robert Service, the eminent Russian history scholar at Oxford calls it the “biggest blunder in post-Soviet relations with Russia”.
A month later (December 2021), the Russians write the Biden administration requesting that NATO membership for Ukraine be ruled out. In January 2022 Secretary of State Blinken replies “absolutely not”. We all are fully aware of what followed in February of that year. Strangely in March 22 and a month after the invasion Zelensky offers Ukrainian neutrality. Was he not speaking with Blinken in January?
So the Ukrainians are fighting a war that most serious military analysts believe they can’t win and it may go on for years. Meanwhile the corruption goes on unabated. Just weeks ago and in the midst of a war of existential proportions the Defence Minister and a handful of his deputy ministers are fired for corruption.
A total disaster that will leave Ukraine a shattered shell of its former self.
We’ll see how much of Ukraine is left for them to enjoy this nationhood in when the conflict ends. That decision won’t be up to them, it won’t be up to the West – it will be up to Russia. They have the munitions, they have the industrial base and they almost certainly have the will. Even if there weren’t strategic and economic considerations involved in taking more land (especially along the Black Sea coast), they’re as susceptible to sunk-cost motivations as anyone else. They also have a rather sceptical view of the West’s honest-brokery now given Hollande & Merkel’s admissions about the Minsk Process and decide that holding land is a better guarantee than promises – written or otherwise.
Otherwise Professor Thompsons ‘political economy’ seems rather light-weight (although it may be more fully developed elsewhere in her book). Here’s a couple of issues that she really needs to investigate IMHO:
The energy transformation that has taken place since the Russian invasion hasn’t been from Russian gas to renewables, it has been from Russian gas to US LPG (it’s an ill wind and all that). Does she think that may have been a factor in the genesis of this conflict?
Regarding de-industrialisation, we’ll see how Germany performs now it’s sanctioned itself from Russians cheap gas.
And there’s the rather large Elephant (Eagle) in the room of how the Ukraine is choosing, or will choose, to express their nationhood. If their marching, street-naming, tatoo-favouring and badge-wearing is anything to go by, that might not be very palettable to us in the West.
As Thomas Fazi has pointed out elsewhere around here – this really did not need to happen. The peace talks in March of last year offered a viable off-ramp (as Thomas Fazi has pointed out elsewhere here). There were plenty of other off-ramps available prior to this too.
The off-ramp was of course sabotaged when Biden sent Boris as his messenger to Zelensky with the message: ‘Under no circumstances are you to agree to the peace deal, you are going to fight to the last Ukrainian…..and we’re right behind you.’
Glad you are able to articulate this response clearly. I didn’t have the patience to read all the piece from Prof Thompson, but from the gist it seems there were many salient facts overlooked or not deemed important enough to mention. The horrific and unnecessary loss of life and mass refugee crisis of Ukraine should be a massive stain on Zelensky and Nuland, Blinken and Biden for ever more
Just re-read the article and this rather stood out:
“The post-Cold War EU relied on a measure of German-Russian reconciliation to allow for German reunification even as the eastern European states had only just successfully asserted their nationhood against the Soviet version of the imperial Russian empire. T “
That’s one way of putting it I suppose, but it misses something of the nuance – and by that I mean the well documented promises made by the West not to move NATO ‘one inch’ Westwards. That and the repeated warnings from all sorts of people over thirty years that doing so for Ukraine was the thickest of red-lines for the Russians. What the EU relied upon seems rather inconsequential in this respect, given that it’s NATO members apparently didn’t care about this.
Eventual negotiations will leave Ukraine sovereign over land west of the Dneiper River, Russia annexing what it already occupies and a wide demilitarized area in between.
In principle I agree with you. It is thanks to you and those who support you here that Britain will turn into a Caliphate in the next 10-15 years. You deserve this future
Steve Jolly
5 months ago
Or, when faced with energy poverty, angry populations will vote out the technocrats and carbon footprint obsessed elites that caused it and vote for anyone who promises to change course. Democratic society can tolerate a great deal of inequality if resources are abundant, Kennedy’s ‘rising tide that lifts all boats’. That same inequality will quickly become unsustainable if the common folk are asked to endure hardships that the elites are able to use their wealth and power to escape. We’ve already witnessed the level of rage that resulted from politicians flouting COVID rules. It could get a lot worse. No surprise the riots are already starting in France. The French do love their revolutions.
Decarbonization is a colossal waste of time. Even if the west does it, the rest of the world won’t, especially China and India. There is no hope of stopping the burning of fossil fuels without a truly dramatic technological breakthrough that simply does not look likely in the near to medium term future. What we should be doing is preparing for climate change and getting ready to adapt as quickly and efficiently as possible to changing weather patterns and conditions.
I’m not trying to be a jerk, but I found this essay difficult to read. I really enjoy Helen’s podcast and she is clearly well informed, but she writes like a university professor.
Yes. Very dense, full of cliches, and it reads like a condensation very poorly done.
That said, I would NOT write off Ukraine’s chances of winning this, or at least coming out of it better than the Russians. Many wars have ups and downs, stagnant periods and surprising breakthroughs.
BUT — if European governments adopt the pessimism of the Chamberlains on this page and quit aiding Ukraine, that country will be done for. If that should happen, Putin will happily return to the pattern set by Hitler and set his sights on other additions to his realm: The three Baltic states, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland …
Last edited 5 months ago by Wim de Vriend
Martin Johnson
5 months ago
If the level of silliness is multiplied by word count, this may be the all-time champion.
NATO, led by the US and its UK sidekick, took what could and should have been a long term constructive relationship with Russia and, by overtly taking steps to undermine Russia’s defense perimeter and political stability, despite Russia’s numerous protests and warnings, turned Russia into a strategic adversary. And drove it into alignment with China and Iran, for good measure.
The whole green energy thing is a crock, in any case, and despite all the efforts of the ruling oligarchy to grift off it, is beginning to wobble in the face of physical reality.
It is really hard to parse this article in any way that produces useful points that are consistent with reality.
Was your first sentence a comment on the article or a warning to the reader of your comment?
Ira Perman
5 months ago
Lost me on this one. Unconvincing.
At any rate Ukraine has lost the war: It will not regain the land that Russia took.
Iris C
5 months ago
This war may very well have been avoided if the EU countries had said (as they said later) that they would not agree to Ukraine becoming a member of NATO.
Russia wanted an assurance that this large, economically viable country on its border would remain neutral. The USA refused to give that assurance and the EU hierarchy said nothing, until it was too late.
Yes, Ukraine is economically viable in the same way as Nigeria; inherently wealthy except for the rampant corruption.
Regrettably it’s a basket case US colony unlikely to improve in the foreseeable future.
I don’t really understand the level of intelligence or even the presence of it among people who believe that Ukraine, due to its corruption, should be captured by an absolutely corrupt mafia state like Russia.
Sensible Citizen
2 months ago
Ukraine is a nation of homeless widows and amputees, thanks to the American CIA, the evil Victoria Nuland, and thousands of cheerleading ghouls in the global media. Blackrock and the defense industry will do quite well, standing on a mountain of dead Ukrainian boys. They are all just kidding about Russia by the way. There is money to be made on all that oil and gas and when Russia and Germany kiss and make up, Putin will once again become a theoretical enemy and a critical cog in the EU economy.
I really don’t follow the logic of this article, at all.
Ukraine is losing this war, badly and this has very serious consequences.
So much commentary about Ukraine is based in a delusional refusal to concede the battlefield facts; Ukraine has precisely as much chance of beating/resisting Russia than Mexico could beat the USA.
Ukraine will be lucky to emerge from this conflict with 50% of its pre-invasion territory and, if all Black Sea access is lost, its future is very bleak; a rump and impoverished, failed state.
Agree. Ukraine was well on its way to be a failed state long before the Russians crossed the border. Its population had fallen from close to 50 million at independence in 1991 to near 40 million by 2020. That was the result of endemic corruption piled on top of ethnic strife arising from a very large Russian speaking minority. Since the outset of the conflict 6-8 million have fled the country many of whom will never return.
Onto this stage steps Volodomyr Zelensky a political and diplomatic novice whose inner circle will come from his entertainment production company. In the late summer of 2021 he finds himself in Joe Biden’s Oval Office. Two months later Ukraine and the U.S sign the U.S./Ukraine Strategic Partnership in Washington. Many observers believe it is a further green light for Ukraine’s NATO membership. Robert Service, the eminent Russian history scholar at Oxford calls it the “biggest blunder in post-Soviet relations with Russia”.
A month later (December 2021), the Russians write the Biden administration requesting that NATO membership for Ukraine be ruled out. In January 2022 Secretary of State Blinken replies “absolutely not”. We all are fully aware of what followed in February of that year. Strangely in March 22 and a month after the invasion Zelensky offers Ukrainian neutrality. Was he not speaking with Blinken in January?
So the Ukrainians are fighting a war that most serious military analysts believe they can’t win and it may go on for years. Meanwhile the corruption goes on unabated. Just weeks ago and in the midst of a war of existential proportions the Defence Minister and a handful of his deputy ministers are fired for corruption.
A total disaster that will leave Ukraine a shattered shell of its former self.
Absolutely bang on target both Ted & Alex.
We’ll see how much of Ukraine is left for them to enjoy this nationhood in when the conflict ends. That decision won’t be up to them, it won’t be up to the West – it will be up to Russia. They have the munitions, they have the industrial base and they almost certainly have the will. Even if there weren’t strategic and economic considerations involved in taking more land (especially along the Black Sea coast), they’re as susceptible to sunk-cost motivations as anyone else. They also have a rather sceptical view of the West’s honest-brokery now given Hollande & Merkel’s admissions about the Minsk Process and decide that holding land is a better guarantee than promises – written or otherwise.
Otherwise Professor Thompsons ‘political economy’ seems rather light-weight (although it may be more fully developed elsewhere in her book). Here’s a couple of issues that she really needs to investigate IMHO:
The energy transformation that has taken place since the Russian invasion hasn’t been from Russian gas to renewables, it has been from Russian gas to US LPG (it’s an ill wind and all that). Does she think that may have been a factor in the genesis of this conflict?
Regarding de-industrialisation, we’ll see how Germany performs now it’s sanctioned itself from Russians cheap gas.
And there’s the rather large Elephant (Eagle) in the room of how the Ukraine is choosing, or will choose, to express their nationhood. If their marching, street-naming, tatoo-favouring and badge-wearing is anything to go by, that might not be very palettable to us in the West.
As Thomas Fazi has pointed out elsewhere around here – this really did not need to happen. The peace talks in March of last year offered a viable off-ramp (as Thomas Fazi has pointed out elsewhere here). There were plenty of other off-ramps available prior to this too.
Minor points, but LNG not LPG, and very dirty lignite and soft bituminous coal have also been substitutes for Russian piped NG.
The off-ramp was of course sabotaged when Biden sent Boris as his messenger to Zelensky with the message: ‘Under no circumstances are you to agree to the peace deal, you are going to fight to the last Ukrainian…..and we’re right behind you.’
Glad you are able to articulate this response clearly. I didn’t have the patience to read all the piece from Prof Thompson, but from the gist it seems there were many salient facts overlooked or not deemed important enough to mention. The horrific and unnecessary loss of life and mass refugee crisis of Ukraine should be a massive stain on Zelensky and Nuland, Blinken and Biden for ever more
Just re-read the article and this rather stood out:
“The post-Cold War EU relied on a measure of German-Russian reconciliation to allow for German reunification even as the eastern European states had only just successfully asserted their nationhood against the Soviet version of the imperial Russian empire. T “
That’s one way of putting it I suppose, but it misses something of the nuance – and by that I mean the well documented promises made by the West not to move NATO ‘one inch’ Westwards. That and the repeated warnings from all sorts of people over thirty years that doing so for Ukraine was the thickest of red-lines for the Russians. What the EU relied upon seems rather inconsequential in this respect, given that it’s NATO members apparently didn’t care about this.
Totally agree but I think you meant “not to move NATO one inch Eastward”
Oops – you’re quite right – thanks.
I think you mean ‘one inch eastwards’
Eventual negotiations will leave Ukraine sovereign over land west of the Dneiper River, Russia annexing what it already occupies and a wide demilitarized area in between.
You might be right IP
But I think the Russians want to land lock the Ukraine and take Odessa too
I’m not even sure if there will be negotiations, the Russians may just impose their will on the Ukrainians
In principle I agree with you. It is thanks to you and those who support you here that Britain will turn into a Caliphate in the next 10-15 years. You deserve this future
Or, when faced with energy poverty, angry populations will vote out the technocrats and carbon footprint obsessed elites that caused it and vote for anyone who promises to change course. Democratic society can tolerate a great deal of inequality if resources are abundant, Kennedy’s ‘rising tide that lifts all boats’. That same inequality will quickly become unsustainable if the common folk are asked to endure hardships that the elites are able to use their wealth and power to escape. We’ve already witnessed the level of rage that resulted from politicians flouting COVID rules. It could get a lot worse. No surprise the riots are already starting in France. The French do love their revolutions.
Decarbonization is a colossal waste of time. Even if the west does it, the rest of the world won’t, especially China and India. There is no hope of stopping the burning of fossil fuels without a truly dramatic technological breakthrough that simply does not look likely in the near to medium term future. What we should be doing is preparing for climate change and getting ready to adapt as quickly and efficiently as possible to changing weather patterns and conditions.
What about nuclear power plants?
I enthusiastically support nuclear energy.
I’m not trying to be a jerk, but I found this essay difficult to read. I really enjoy Helen’s podcast and she is clearly well informed, but she writes like a university professor.
I agree. OTOH, her New Statesman essays have generally been very easy to read.
Different proof-readers/editors, I guess ?
Yes. Very dense, full of cliches, and it reads like a condensation very poorly done.
That said, I would NOT write off Ukraine’s chances of winning this, or at least coming out of it better than the Russians. Many wars have ups and downs, stagnant periods and surprising breakthroughs.
BUT — if European governments adopt the pessimism of the Chamberlains on this page and quit aiding Ukraine, that country will be done for. If that should happen, Putin will happily return to the pattern set by Hitler and set his sights on other additions to his realm: The three Baltic states, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland …
If the level of silliness is multiplied by word count, this may be the all-time champion.
NATO, led by the US and its UK sidekick, took what could and should have been a long term constructive relationship with Russia and, by overtly taking steps to undermine Russia’s defense perimeter and political stability, despite Russia’s numerous protests and warnings, turned Russia into a strategic adversary. And drove it into alignment with China and Iran, for good measure.
The whole green energy thing is a crock, in any case, and despite all the efforts of the ruling oligarchy to grift off it, is beginning to wobble in the face of physical reality.
It is really hard to parse this article in any way that produces useful points that are consistent with reality.
Bravo!!
Was your first sentence a comment on the article or a warning to the reader of your comment?
Lost me on this one. Unconvincing.
At any rate Ukraine has lost the war: It will not regain the land that Russia took.
This war may very well have been avoided if the EU countries had said (as they said later) that they would not agree to Ukraine becoming a member of NATO.
Russia wanted an assurance that this large, economically viable country on its border would remain neutral. The USA refused to give that assurance and the EU hierarchy said nothing, until it was too late.
Yes, Ukraine is economically viable in the same way as Nigeria; inherently wealthy except for the rampant corruption.
Regrettably it’s a basket case US colony unlikely to improve in the foreseeable future.
I don’t really understand the level of intelligence or even the presence of it among people who believe that Ukraine, due to its corruption, should be captured by an absolutely corrupt mafia state like Russia.
Ukraine is a nation of homeless widows and amputees, thanks to the American CIA, the evil Victoria Nuland, and thousands of cheerleading ghouls in the global media. Blackrock and the defense industry will do quite well, standing on a mountain of dead Ukrainian boys. They are all just kidding about Russia by the way. There is money to be made on all that oil and gas and when Russia and Germany kiss and make up, Putin will once again become a theoretical enemy and a critical cog in the EU economy.