Biden and Xi in 2012 (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
If Presidents Xi and Biden have one thing in common, it’s that both desperately need a historic win. In the 23 years since Bill Clinton welcomed China into the World Trade Organization, the aura of the two nations’ relationship has shifted from hopeful to confrontational. Skirmishes once took place outside of the public view: in cyber-attacks, satellite warfare, the cutting of subsea internet cables, and submarines playing cat-and-mouse games. But when Russia invaded Ukraine and threatened to deploy nuclear weapons, something changed.
Even China was rattled. President Xi made it clear that nuclear war was not an option. Then Hamas triggered the real possibility of a widespread ground war across the Middle East. As Biden and Xi meet in San Francisco today, everyone wants a way out.
For Xi, such geopolitical chaos is an existential risk. China is falling apart. The $18 trillion economy has tanked. The collapse of Evergrande, the nation’s property giant, exposed a simple truth. It wasn’t just one huge company that had gone bust. It symbolised the loss of a dream: the Chinese no longer believe that property is a safe investment.
Meanwhile, earlier this month, foreign direct investment into China turned negative for the first time, killing any hope of rising export sales. The Belt and Road Initiative was supposed to alleviate this, bringing valuable raw materials — food, energy and data — back to China. It should have become a revenue generator, but it has turned into a system that bleeds cash. The poor emerging market nations it targeted often had to borrow money from China to cover the cost of building its physical infrastructure — and now, thanks to rising inflation and the global slowdown, they cannot pay back those loans.
All this helps explain why Xi, who is convinced the only way forward is to return to an export-led strategy, visited China’s Central Bank (PBOC) a few weeks ago. It was shocking to see the nation’s leader deigning to meet lowly technocrats. Xi is unhappy with how they are portraying China; no doubt he demanded that they make the numbers prettier, even though the world lost faith in the veracity of China’s numbers a long time ago. In the same vein, the arrest in September of a former PBOC boss on suspicion of corruption may have been an attempt to project control, but it hasn’t worked. Xi’s internal opponents are muttering, and the Communist Party wants to get back to making money. They certainly don’t want to waste China’s already declining youth demographics on a senseless war with the US, the world’s most formidable military power. Taiwan can wait.
Biden, meanwhile, has his own problems. Both Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr are breathing down his neck in the polls. Only 14% of Americans think that Biden has improved their standard of living. Threatening China won’t change this. Nonetheless, in recent months, he has engaged in a serious show of force by deploying aircraft carrier groups to the Pacific and the Middle East, and by revealing frightening new technologies such as the new nuclear gravity bomb. The message to China, Iran and Russia is to back off; Biden is ready to escalate.
In reality, however, the public appetite for spending money on foreign wars dropped even further once Israel stole the spotlight. It is now almost impossible for Biden to justify further funds for Ukraine, especially with President Zelenskyy refusing to hold elections, a move which killed any idea that he was fighting for democracy.
Nor can Israel expect unconditional US support. The prospect of conflict across the Middle East is splitting Jewish and young votes, both of which are critical for Biden’s re-election chances. Since warfare is expensive as well as inflationary, a serious and historic geopolitical rapprochement would be far less costly. Now could be the moment that both the US and China agree to play nice for the sake of the world.
Such a deal might require Xi to burn both Moscow and Tehran, but they have already served their purpose. Their bullying changed the American perception of risk and brought Biden to the negotiating table with China. Putin may not be losing in Ukraine, but he faces increasing opposition at home. His position is precarious: Russia needs China, but China doesn’t need Russia. The same goes for Iran. Washington is more valuable to Beijing than Moscow and Tehran combined.
Xi knows that global harmony would necessitate an armistice in Ukraine and for China and Russia to stop their support of Hamas and Hezbollah. In return, Biden understands that this will require an end to America’s hawkish rhetoric. Already, the seeds of this shift are being sown: when, in another highly unusual move, Xi summoned California Governor Gavin Newsom to Beijing last month, Newsom lay the groundwork for the reconciliation by saying “divorce is not an option”. Given that Newsom is Biden’s preferred successor, this change of tone was very important. China has already said it is “ready to improve ties with the US at all levels”, and has even offered to negotiate a deal on nuclear weapons.
All of which suggests that both sides know the other cannot afford a messy divorce. The White House can’t raise or cut taxes, and Beijing can’t stimulate its economy either. It’s a stalemate.
Could this be why former prime minister David Cameron has agreed to serve as the Foreign Minister of the United Kingdom? If a US-China deal is in motion, it constitutes a rare opportunity to shape and craft a new story for the world economy and a new phase of superpower relations. Would the US task the British to do the work necessary to construct this potential new order? It’s not inconceivable, especially given the White House is distracted by its own domestic issues.
The benefits of such a “kiss-and-make-up” photo-op would certainly be widespread. It would generate a rally in the markets and a huge sense of relief among the citizens of the world. The “make-up” part wouldn’t even need to be that friendly. The US and China could continue to fight against each other invisibly: underwater, in space, in cyberspace and with spygames. But, as long as these battles were fought out of sight, things could get better. A cold war always beats a hot war — and kicking today’s problems into the future seems like a fine solution for now. In a world where everyone is preparing for the worst, a note of optimism wouldn’t go amiss.
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SubscribeI disagree,what you describe sounds more like the product of careful organisation, and ruthless commitment. These aren’t lost boys, trying to fill their time by joyriding or hustling, but an organised, and combative minority moved by hatred for the civilisation that surrounds them.
Moreover, let’s not exaggerate the levels of poverty, this is not some third world country, France provides these rioters with a free education from day one, free health care, social benefits etc, that poor people in Asia of Africa could only dream about. If these communities are falling behind perhaps they should look more carefully at themselves and their cultural underpinnings and stop pointing the finger to the world.
I think the idea that this is all to do with there being “nothing decent on Netflix tonight” is absurd and Macrons steer in that narrative direction is nonsense.
He is being dismissive and disingenuous as he’s in trouble.
There’s always someone up for some chaos / punchup but France, and much of Europe, seems to be a cauldron of animosity about a variety of issues at the moment from immigration to complacency in high places (measured in decades).
I strongly agree with your assessment of the relative poverty and the huge advantages these “poor kids” have vis a vis their African, Asian and Latinoamerican counterparts. I just wonder whether the degree of insatisfaction tends to be more relative than absolute. I would think that the “poor french” compare themselves with the life of affluent european elites (which they see every day) not with third world’s.
Certainly, the degree of “insatisfaction” is heightened by the relatively new ability to see how the rest of the world lives, which is witnessed on a hand-held device 24/7/365. Never in human history was this possible. We are experiencing the repercussions of this massive change in real time. If we think this example of social upheaval is significant, just wait until malicious, AI-altered content begins to proliferate, if it hasn’t already. Better have some water and food stored up somewhere.
You have a good point.
However the question remains, why are these groups so prone to rioting and why are they trapped in this perpetual circle of impoverishment, economic stagnation etc. particularly when compared to other migrant groups like the French-Vietnamese for instance.
Certainly, the degree of “insatisfaction” is heightened by the relatively new ability to see how the rest of the world lives, which is witnessed on a hand-held device 24/7/365. Never in human history was this possible. We are experiencing the repercussions of this massive change in real time. If we think this example of social upheaval is significant, just wait until malicious, AI-altered content begins to proliferate, if it hasn’t already. Better have some water and food stored up somewhere.
You have a good point.
However the question remains, why are these groups so prone to rioting and why are they trapped in this perpetual circle of impoverishment, economic stagnation etc. particularly when compared to other migrant groups like the French-Vietnamese for instance.
I think the idea that this is all to do with there being “nothing decent on Netflix tonight” is absurd and Macrons steer in that narrative direction is nonsense.
He is being dismissive and disingenuous as he’s in trouble.
There’s always someone up for some chaos / punchup but France, and much of Europe, seems to be a cauldron of animosity about a variety of issues at the moment from immigration to complacency in high places (measured in decades).
I strongly agree with your assessment of the relative poverty and the huge advantages these “poor kids” have vis a vis their African, Asian and Latinoamerican counterparts. I just wonder whether the degree of insatisfaction tends to be more relative than absolute. I would think that the “poor french” compare themselves with the life of affluent european elites (which they see every day) not with third world’s.
I disagree,what you describe sounds more like the product of careful organisation, and ruthless commitment. These aren’t lost boys, trying to fill their time by joyriding or hustling, but an organised, and combative minority moved by hatred for the civilisation that surrounds them.
Moreover, let’s not exaggerate the levels of poverty, this is not some third world country, France provides these rioters with a free education from day one, free health care, social benefits etc, that poor people in Asia of Africa could only dream about. If these communities are falling behind perhaps they should look more carefully at themselves and their cultural underpinnings and stop pointing the finger to the world.
Britain showed how to deal with this situation after the riots in 2011: eye-watering sentences for everyone captured in the act of rioting or looting. Courts held 24 hour sessions to get through the cases. Bail denied in almost all cases. 4000 people were prosecuted, 900 got prison sentences.
Including this one:
Crime rates dropped year-on-year for the next 4 years as a good portion of all of Britain’s delinquents were doing time or were on a suspended sentence.
The public was well satisfied with the justice system for once.
Britain showed how to deal with this situation after the riots in 2011: eye-watering sentences for everyone captured in the act of rioting or looting. Courts held 24 hour sessions to get through the cases. Bail denied in almost all cases. 4000 people were prosecuted, 900 got prison sentences.
Including this one:
Crime rates dropped year-on-year for the next 4 years as a good portion of all of Britain’s delinquents were doing time or were on a suspended sentence.
The public was well satisfied with the justice system for once.
One thing that is carefully not mentioned is the ethnicity of the rioters. The current official propaganda that the original Europeans are responsible for many of the ills of the world through racism, colonialism and excessive consumption is inherently likely to make youth disaffected and happy to loot businesses and state organisations.when they have an excuse. No doubt the increasing reluctance to sentence the young to harsh punishment also encourages gangs to employ/encourage the young co commit most of the public offences.
Rioting is clearly not a reasonable response to police violence and prejudice as it alienates the public who might otherwise press more vigorously for the police to be reigned in in the light of the evidence provided by the video recordings of the incident that sparked the unrest.
One thing that is carefully not mentioned is the ethnicity of the rioters. The current official propaganda that the original Europeans are responsible for many of the ills of the world through racism, colonialism and excessive consumption is inherently likely to make youth disaffected and happy to loot businesses and state organisations.when they have an excuse. No doubt the increasing reluctance to sentence the young to harsh punishment also encourages gangs to employ/encourage the young co commit most of the public offences.
Rioting is clearly not a reasonable response to police violence and prejudice as it alienates the public who might otherwise press more vigorously for the police to be reigned in in the light of the evidence provided by the video recordings of the incident that sparked the unrest.
Sounds like organized criminal gangs to me.
Sounds like organized criminal gangs to me.
I greatly admire Anne-Elisabeth Moutet’s writing, but in this piece, the content does not appear to support the title “French rioters are bored kids”. The content suggests that, far from being bored, they have been busy preparing for this. France has a very low rate of killings by the police: one every two weeks. So they would not have long to wait.
A more convincing explanation is that the groups doing the rioting are flexing their muscles to intimidate whimp politicians such as Macron.
Agreed. They have learned how gullible politicians can be from the BLM
riotsprotests that garnered hundreds of millions of dollars in de-facto reparations from corporations and other useful idiots.Agreed. They have learned how gullible politicians can be from the BLM
riotsprotests that garnered hundreds of millions of dollars in de-facto reparations from corporations and other useful idiots.I greatly admire Anne-Elisabeth Moutet’s writing, but in this piece, the content does not appear to support the title “French rioters are bored kids”. The content suggests that, far from being bored, they have been busy preparing for this. France has a very low rate of killings by the police: one every two weeks. So they would not have long to wait.
A more convincing explanation is that the groups doing the rioting are flexing their muscles to intimidate whimp politicians such as Macron.
The good news is that riots only come in warm, dry weather.
Will the violence increase with ‘climate change’?
As any change in weather is evidence of climate change more bad weather might reduce riots. Welcome to a post-evidence world.
Let’s hope ‘climate change ‘ agitation restricts itself to throwing orange confetti around tennis courts in south west London
As any change in weather is evidence of climate change more bad weather might reduce riots. Welcome to a post-evidence world.
Let’s hope ‘climate change ‘ agitation restricts itself to throwing orange confetti around tennis courts in south west London
A police officer friend once told me that crime noticeably decreases at temperatures below 38 deg F…….
Will the violence increase with ‘climate change’?
A police officer friend once told me that crime noticeably decreases at temperatures below 38 deg F…….
The good news is that riots only come in warm, dry weather.
I still don’t see any mention of how many of these kids come from homes with absent fathers. Am IP allowed to say that lol. But single Mums cannot raise boys as they do not understand how to manage them.
I think you have to say “absentee non-birthing parent” these days, if you wish to retain banking facilities, that is.
I think you have to say “absentee non-birthing parent” these days, if you wish to retain banking facilities, that is.
I still don’t see any mention of how many of these kids come from homes with absent fathers. Am IP allowed to say that lol. But single Mums cannot raise boys as they do not understand how to manage them.
The writer, like most of her kind show no experience of living in these areas. The question which is vital is ” How many of the looters are children of Islamicists who participated in the Algerian Civil War of 1991 to 2002 ?”.
Algerian Civil War – Wikipedia
The degree of planning suggest that those experienced in subversion are at work. If one looks at the riots in N Ireland they were very precisely organised by the PIRA.Yes there is anger but an angry mob shows no coherence.
A Nigerian friend said there were some whites associated with Trotskyist groups who had been stirring up trouble in Brixton in 1981 who disappeared just before the riots errupted.
I would suggest there is a gap in intelligence gathering between the Police and the security services when obtaining information on these riots. Various political groups work on existing grievances and when an incident such as this shooting occurs are able to mobilise rioter within seconds. The rioters will probably not know they are being manipulated by others for their purposes.
The authorities either need to recruit people living in these areas or people who can move into them and become part of landscape. These areas develop a universal mind and in order to perceive what is likely to occur one needs to be able to tap into it which can only be achieved by living in the midst and connecting. Middle class, especially whites can live in an area and because they never connect to the ” Area Mind ” are completely oblivious to the undercurrents. An analogy is the ability to look at the sea and see the fast and slow currents, changes in directions of the currents, shoals, reefs, sand banks, feel the changes in wind direction, temperature , pressure, look at the clouds, etc an perceive when it is safe and danger is close by.
“If one looks at the riots in N Ireland they were very precisely organised by the PIRA”
Occasionally, of course – but very often not. My mates from W Belfast (the ‘Bone Estate etc) at law college in QUB with me in the 80s used to reminisce fondly about “being out stoning / petrol-bombing the Peelers / Brits” at weekends – it was, if you like, paintballing with an edge lol. Not directed by the ‘RA at all in many cases, simply indulged in for laughs.
I remember once someone in Belfast, some good, kind, well-meaning middle-class soul (as clueless as the folk you refer to re having an “area mind”), tried to run go-karting lessons for joyriders, reasoning that the kids obviously were keen drivers who merely needed an outlet. Of course, take-up was lamentably low. The joyriding kids had limited / no interest in motorsport. No amount of high-speed jinks around a racetrack could ever hold a candle to the sheer adrenalin of possibly being shot dead by the army in hot pursuit.
The over-intellectualisation of the Troubles by earnest middle-class outsiders was a minor personal bugbear of mine for decades. Middle class know-alls in South Dublin and in the Home Counties foisting their undergrad theories onto us etc. Utter nonsense in most cases.
Sometimes, things are as straightforward as they seem …
I accept what you say about much of N Ireland but you are ignoring the Algerian Civil War.Some Algerians ended up, at Finsbury Mosque. It would be interested to compare attitude to France of those Algerians who entered pre 1991 and post 2002. The Islamicists in Algeria were fighting secular socialist pro USSR arabs who governed Algeria which has resulted in them being against most of the values of republican France, especially laicite.
THE SUICIDE FACTORY: Abu Hamza and the Finsbury Park Mosque: Amazon.co.uk: O’Neill: 9780007234691: Books
I accept what you say about much of N Ireland but you are ignoring the Algerian Civil War.Some Algerians ended up, at Finsbury Mosque. It would be interested to compare attitude to France of those Algerians who entered pre 1991 and post 2002. The Islamicists in Algeria were fighting secular socialist pro USSR arabs who governed Algeria which has resulted in them being against most of the values of republican France, especially laicite.
THE SUICIDE FACTORY: Abu Hamza and the Finsbury Park Mosque: Amazon.co.uk: O’Neill: 9780007234691: Books
“If one looks at the riots in N Ireland they were very precisely organised by the PIRA”
Occasionally, of course – but very often not. My mates from W Belfast (the ‘Bone Estate etc) at law college in QUB with me in the 80s used to reminisce fondly about “being out stoning / petrol-bombing the Peelers / Brits” at weekends – it was, if you like, paintballing with an edge lol. Not directed by the ‘RA at all in many cases, simply indulged in for laughs.
I remember once someone in Belfast, some good, kind, well-meaning middle-class soul (as clueless as the folk you refer to re having an “area mind”), tried to run go-karting lessons for joyriders, reasoning that the kids obviously were keen drivers who merely needed an outlet. Of course, take-up was lamentably low. The joyriding kids had limited / no interest in motorsport. No amount of high-speed jinks around a racetrack could ever hold a candle to the sheer adrenalin of possibly being shot dead by the army in hot pursuit.
The over-intellectualisation of the Troubles by earnest middle-class outsiders was a minor personal bugbear of mine for decades. Middle class know-alls in South Dublin and in the Home Counties foisting their undergrad theories onto us etc. Utter nonsense in most cases.
Sometimes, things are as straightforward as they seem …
The writer, like most of her kind show no experience of living in these areas. The question which is vital is ” How many of the looters are children of Islamicists who participated in the Algerian Civil War of 1991 to 2002 ?”.
Algerian Civil War – Wikipedia
The degree of planning suggest that those experienced in subversion are at work. If one looks at the riots in N Ireland they were very precisely organised by the PIRA.Yes there is anger but an angry mob shows no coherence.
A Nigerian friend said there were some whites associated with Trotskyist groups who had been stirring up trouble in Brixton in 1981 who disappeared just before the riots errupted.
I would suggest there is a gap in intelligence gathering between the Police and the security services when obtaining information on these riots. Various political groups work on existing grievances and when an incident such as this shooting occurs are able to mobilise rioter within seconds. The rioters will probably not know they are being manipulated by others for their purposes.
The authorities either need to recruit people living in these areas or people who can move into them and become part of landscape. These areas develop a universal mind and in order to perceive what is likely to occur one needs to be able to tap into it which can only be achieved by living in the midst and connecting. Middle class, especially whites can live in an area and because they never connect to the ” Area Mind ” are completely oblivious to the undercurrents. An analogy is the ability to look at the sea and see the fast and slow currents, changes in directions of the currents, shoals, reefs, sand banks, feel the changes in wind direction, temperature , pressure, look at the clouds, etc an perceive when it is safe and danger is close by.
If we are going to guess ‘reasons’ for the rioting how about a behavioural rebound from lockdown? Or does that cut too close to the narrative that the Powers That Be maintain?
Oh ffs, stop riding your high horse. You reckon those yahoos paid any attention to so-called “lockdowns”, or had jobs to go to in the first place?
Oh ffs, stop riding your high horse. You reckon those yahoos paid any attention to so-called “lockdowns”, or had jobs to go to in the first place?
If we are going to guess ‘reasons’ for the rioting how about a behavioural rebound from lockdown? Or does that cut too close to the narrative that the Powers That Be maintain?
In the USA, every summer some city is set on fire by ‘bored kids’. It’s happens like clock-work.
In the USA, every summer some city is set on fire by ‘bored kids’. It’s happens like clock-work.
These riots reminds me of the riots in Portland and Seattle. Violence for no gain.
I wouldn’t go that far – a lot of them seemed to be more interested in ‘shopping’
I believe the “correct” terminology is protests. Riots is a term reserved for lite beer drinking, overweight, old men who storm capitol buildings in major U.S. cities.
I wouldn’t go that far – a lot of them seemed to be more interested in ‘shopping’
I believe the “correct” terminology is protests. Riots is a term reserved for lite beer drinking, overweight, old men who storm capitol buildings in major U.S. cities.
These riots reminds me of the riots in Portland and Seattle. Violence for no gain.
Here in the US most ethnic groups migrating to the cities have started out with gangs: Irish, Jews, Italians. And then, of course blacks. Now Salvadorians with their MS-13.
Why should France be any different?
Even if one accepts what you say (and I don’t) this goes way past gang violence, which, lets be honest, was mostly confined to internecine violence. This is orchestrated, wide-spead, and aimed at people who have nothing to do with any internal machinations of any particular group.
What about Indian Hindus? Not many riots in Silicon valley.
Irish, Jews, Italians and other gangsters never really doubted the ‘American way of life’, in many respects their first and foremost desire was to become a part of mainstream society albeit by engaging in shady and illegal practices. Put otherwise mafias never question the powers that be, sometimes they work with them, and other times they try to circumvent them, but they never question their usefulness or pretend that they have any other aspiration than making money.
What we see in France on the other hand is a blend of political and criminal insurgencies whose purpose is much more sinister and far reaching than smashing a few cars or stealing stereos.
Even if one accepts what you say (and I don’t) this goes way past gang violence, which, lets be honest, was mostly confined to internecine violence. This is orchestrated, wide-spead, and aimed at people who have nothing to do with any internal machinations of any particular group.
What about Indian Hindus? Not many riots in Silicon valley.
Irish, Jews, Italians and other gangsters never really doubted the ‘American way of life’, in many respects their first and foremost desire was to become a part of mainstream society albeit by engaging in shady and illegal practices. Put otherwise mafias never question the powers that be, sometimes they work with them, and other times they try to circumvent them, but they never question their usefulness or pretend that they have any other aspiration than making money.
What we see in France on the other hand is a blend of political and criminal insurgencies whose purpose is much more sinister and far reaching than smashing a few cars or stealing stereos.
Here in the US most ethnic groups migrating to the cities have started out with gangs: Irish, Jews, Italians. And then, of course blacks. Now Salvadorians with their MS-13.
Why should France be any different?
Even though any details about the demo, psychographic composition of the rioters (E.g., peaceful protesters in America) is not included, I can conjecture that the heart of the matter for most is the need to vent their existential angst: a deep agitation and anger of having been abandoned to godless humanism, relativism, socialism by adults… but especially parents. “Venting” in this way is directed inwardly by means of self-harm, and outwardly by any means possible. Akin so many places on the planet — not the least of which in America — younger generations have been set adrift. Having sown the wind, the whirlwind is taking on many forms… our once-cherished youth being the first on the frontline of carnage.
Only those who survive being aborted, however.
Wow. That’s depressing. Sounds like my neighborhood.
Only those who survive being aborted, however.
Wow. That’s depressing. Sounds like my neighborhood.
Even though any details about the demo, psychographic composition of the rioters (E.g., peaceful protesters in America) is not included, I can conjecture that the heart of the matter for most is the need to vent their existential angst: a deep agitation and anger of having been abandoned to godless humanism, relativism, socialism by adults… but especially parents. “Venting” in this way is directed inwardly by means of self-harm, and outwardly by any means possible. Akin so many places on the planet — not the least of which in America — younger generations have been set adrift. Having sown the wind, the whirlwind is taking on many forms… our once-cherished youth being the first on the frontline of carnage.