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There is no cause for optimism (MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty Images)
The last major news item about Gaza before the first news of Hamas’s surprise attack was the September 22 announcement that 17,000 Gazans would immediately receive permits to work in Israel, with that number set to rise to 20,000. All understood the likelihood of a permit-holder smuggling in a bomb, or perhaps stabbing an Israeli fellow worker, but that seemed a risk worth taking.
Hamas, after all, had stopped launching rockets against Israel, and appeared to be focused on containing the influence of Islamic Jihad — Hamas’s only remaining competitor after its suppression of the PLO, and one which is financed by Iran to propagate Shi’ism in Gaza. This obvious rivalry was skilfully exploited by Hamas to deceive the Israelis into thinking that it was no longer launching rockets because, as an emphatically Sunni organisation, it wanted to join the Sunni reconciliation with Israel that was already a fait accompli from Morocco to Bahrain.
Once again, as so many times before, Israel’s leaders were deluded into thinking that a Palestinian leadership had some concern for the welfare of its own people, as opposed to its ideological aim: “Palestine” for the nationalist PLO (which always included Christians), and Islamic supremacy for Hamas. The latter’s leaders have frequently explained that Islamic rule must be imposed not just on Israel but on the entire world, and that Palestinian nationalism is un-Islamic twice over — because it includes Christians, and because any nationalism intrinsically subverts Islamic unity.
With Hamas seemingly on a path to reconciliation, only the much smaller Islamic Jihad was still assembling and launching rockets. But most of those attempts were pre-empted by Israeli strikes, guided by precise intelligence supplied by a seemingly reliable agent network. Almost certainly, Hamas itself supplied the “actionable” information passed on by those agents. This efficiently blinded Israeli intelligence, which has plenty of expertise in detecting double agents peddling false information, but could hardly suspect agents who were supplying highly accurate information.
This was the first Israeli failure: its intelligence analysts did not realise that the silence of Hamas was not due to inactivity, but to planning that they could not detect. Such silence was far from normal, and it should have inspired efforts to find out what was going on. But it did not.
On top of that, there was a separate failure which was purely military. Even if intelligence reported that all was well and that Gaza was on the path to peace, military planners should not have yielded to such optimism — for a very specific Israeli reason. Since the Israeli armed forces rely on reservists, who must be recalled to duty and kitted out before they can fight, as opposed to an enemy that can switch from peace to war instantaneously, military planners must be professional pessimists no matter what. They must always be mindful of the minutes needed to broadcast an alert, of the hours that even soldiers in situ need to prepare for action, and the full 24 hours required to mobilise the reservists.
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SubscribeThe biggest mistake was made by the world when we naively allowed ourselves to be gullibly gaslit by the Palestinian Government. Gaslit into giving them too much sympathy, too much power, and too much trust…until they finally got close enough to take innocent wives hostage to torture them, close enough to gang-rape terrified teenage daughters and then slit their throats as if they were mere rubbish to be tossed aside, close enough to take sleeping babies out of their cribs and then saw off their heads as they gurgled and drowned in their own blood until their heads finally fell off their broken necks, and close enough to laugh as they put a dirty bullet between the two red-and-crying eyes of innocent husbands with broken hearts.
All while these official emissaries of the Palestinian Government firmly believe that their god chose them to commit such heinous mass-atrocities in his name….
Then, after all of the many mass-atrocities, the world makes the unforgivable mistake of being gullibly gaslit again by the Palestinian Government. Gaslit into believing that their hellish acts of mass-extinction – wholesale rape, torture and mass murder – are perfectly reasonable/acceptable when performed by Palestinians in the modern world. And that these acts are somehow the fault of their victims’ country.
I now understand with perfect clarity how Hitler rose to power.
? Do you really not understand that this was the Gaza government of Hamas not the official ‘Palestinian Government’ as you call it, which as the articles points out there is also a war between.
Erm…have you ever listened to what Abbas the leader of said Government actually says about the Jews and Israel?
Have you heard Golda Meir call Arabs vermin or worse?
Oh dear. I’m unsure whether you’re being intentionally obtuse or whether you really don’t know much about this topic. Hamas is the Palestinian Government of the Gaza Strip. Until you posted, I didn’t realize this fact was in question and so it was implied in my post.
From PBS:
“Hamas is an Islamist militant movement and one of the Palestinian territories’ two major political parties. It governs more than two million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, but the group is best known for its armed resistance to Israel….
Hamas has been the de facto authority in Gaza since shortly after Israel withdrew from the territory in 2005. The following year, Hamas won a majority of seats in the PA’s legislature and formed a government.
It earned votes for the social services it provided and as a rejection of the incumbent Fatah, which many voters perceived as having grown corrupt at the helm of the PLO and delivering little to Palestinians through its negotiations with Israel.
The outcome was unacceptable to Fatah and its Western backers, and the party ousted Hamas from power in the West Bank. In Gaza, Hamas routed Fatah’s militias in a week of fighting, resulting in a political schism between the two Palestinian territories. Palestinians have not voted for a legislature since 2006, nor a president since 2008.”
Yes, multiple parties and groups have and will continue to vie for the title of ‘Palestinian Government’ in the Gaza Strip, West Bank, etc, so it’s easy to obfuscate – such as with your post. But in fact and appearance, who truly governs the Gaza Strip? Hamas.
Furthermore, your post highlights a distinction without a difference:
“We say to our people and to the members of the Palestinian people: A morning of victory, and morning of joy, a morning of pride (i.e., Hamas terror massacre). We ask Allah to send a blessing to our heroic Martyrs in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and wherever the Palestinian people is… We in the Fatah Movement in the Jenin district convey the message to all our brothers and to all our Palestinian people that they are compelled to take action and participate in this story of heroism with the Palestinian people that is realizing its natural right to fight the occupation and liberate the occupied lands.”
Fatah Jenin branch member Abd Al-Rahman Abu Al-Rub, Official PA TV, Oct. 8, 2023
(Abu Al-Rub is also the spokesman of Fatah’s military wing, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades)
Hamas wants to throw all the Jews into the sea. And the PA also wants Hamas to throw all the Jews into the sea.
The world media and most western governments cover up Hamas terrorism and other destructive forces because that furthers their aim to destroy western civilization. The people you call naive are either secretly or openly celebrating the chaos in Israel, and division they’ve sowed in the west.
I think that you give world media and western governments too much credit for their ability to plan ahead. It’s really the anglosphere media, which is not predictive, but reactive and in thrall to “progressive “ ideology. As to our governments, they have forgotten Palmerston’s dictum, “Countries do not have permanent allies: they have permanent interests “ plus an inability to put shoulders to wheels and a tendency to confuse sound bites with policy.
It’s not just gaslit by the “Palestinian Government” . It’s gaslit by Islam. Islam is not a religion. A religion is a philosophy that preaches how to be a better person … a better Christian, a better Jew, a better Hindu, a better citizen of the world. Just over 50% of Islam, the Hadith, Sura, Quran, regulates the behaviour of the kafir – the nonbeliever. The Quran holds about Jews that they are corrupt, they are monkeys and pigs, and they should be killed and exterminated. This hardly sounds like a religion. It sounds more like a hegemonic political ideology.
It is a gross mistake to believe that Islam can be reformed or separated from it’s fundamental precepts. To believe that it can be reformed is to be gaslit by Islam and the adherents of Islam.
I don’t apologize for saying that 100% of the residents of Gaza are guilty. The population has sheltered and nurtured the savages among them. The savages are their fathers, husbands, uncles, children and brothers. Every Gazan is a terrorist, or a future terrorist. The world would be a better place to issue a massive deportation order and send them all packing. This was tolerated in the Armenian genocide and in Nagorno Karabakh without a peep. Turkey and Azerbaijan had no shame about this. Jews of Israel should take a page from the book of Dinah and the Prince of Shechem. Collective punishment is a drastic measure but in the face of such existential evil, it has its place in the kingdom of justice.
This was tolerated in the Armenian genocide and in Nagorno Karabakh without a peep.
You should be careful since what you call a genocide was accomplished with Israeli support
‘I don’t apologize for saying that 100% of the residents of Gaza are guilty. The population has sheltered and nurtured the savages among them.’
In the cause of logical consistency, then, have you any such swingeing condemnation for the entire population of a country that elected not one but two former members of the murderous terror group the Stern Gang, a.k.a. Lehi – Begin and Shamir – to the office of Prime Minister?
Collective guilt and punishment? I’d have thought the Jews would have been squeamish about dishing that out after what happened to them in the Second World War
So the US is controlled by a deep State Military also.
Their record on civilian deaths is not stellar .
Quite. Just ask the elderly survivors of Lyon, Dresden, Hiroshima and My Lai.
Maybe, but they were provoked.
The population of Gaza and Hamas are the same. They provide ideologically prepared children to Hamas, their leaders, they voted for them and they will vote/fight for them on the West Bank when Abbas dies.
And even though Hamas has only a 60% approval rating in Gaza, the population want Israel destroyed and the jews annihilated as the partying in the streets when the hostages were paraded showed.
So even should Hamas somehow go away the lust to shed jewish blood will remain.
This cannot be stressed too strongly. Polls show that the vast bulk of the palestinian population want Israel destroyed and it’s people killed. There is no two state solution, no compromise etc. It is all tactical and PR
In their situation, growing up in poverty in Gaza I’d probably wish the same to be honest. It’s easy for us to act all high and mighty growing up in a comfortable western country, telling them to essentially turn the other cheek. I’d imagine I’d have a much harder attitude if I lived under a blockade with regular missile strikes
The blockade and regular (actually, irregular, but hey) missile strikes are all attempts to prevent Israeli citizens – 20% of whom are Arabs, by the way – from being stabbed, shot and blown up by Gaza residents.
And you’ve just handily summed up the differences between the Jews, who after the Holocaust managed to start a wonderful democratic nation from nothing, which has been attacked numerous times by all the surrounding nations and the Arabs in Palestine who have created a huge pile of sxxx that is their greatest export and not much more!
Yes – after a brutal, murderous campaign of terrorism against British Mandate forces; sundry pogroms; with powerful international backing; and unfortunately, on the hapless Palestinians’ homeland, rather than in what might have been more appropriate given the Shoah, a chunk of the Rhineland.
‘They’ should by rights have been given Bavaria and perhaps even Austria, both the fountainheads of Nazism.
The existing population should have been deported to Westphalia or Switzerland.
They started that nation by force, attacking and killing British forces in British Mandated Palestine did they not?
Um no. The mandate ended. Israel declared independence. And the armies of 5 Arab countries attacked the newly declared country. The brits weren’t really part of it. Parenthetically (when the brits left they gave their weapons to the Arabs).
When the Jews left Gaza in 2005 they left behind a working infrastructure. Hamas destroyed all of it starting in 2007 and did nothing to improve life there. The sole aim of Hamas is the destruction of Israel.
Quite, and it’s odd that these people are so stuck up their own narrative and devoid of basic human empathy for those in the Gaza ghetto that they fail to see that. You’d think there had never been a Jabotinsky, never been a Beitar or Irgun…. But I expect they see them as heroes.
The United Nations voted to partition Palestine and create the state of Israel.USA and Russis voted for this. The Arabs launched three wars to overturn this. Subsequently, they could have had a peace deal with Israel which could have benefitted them jugely, Instead they kept trying to drive “the jews into the Sea”. This is how it ends
Too many Palestinians make their living in the pursuit of a Jew-free Middle East…..a living that is largely financed by the developed Democratic West and rich Arab oil states providing “humanitarian aid” to Palestinians, aid that is channelled through openly sympathetic governmental aid organizations and NGOs who prop up irredentist leaders. There is no conceivable way now that a political agreement can be struck that would result in two hostile peoples dwelling together in harmony.
The only solution is to send them all parking back to Egypt. Unfortunately, no one has the cojones to suggest that.
Israel tried to give Gaza to Egypt. They were refused.
Would you like it?
What an outrageous anti-Semitic remark. The days of Jews being forced to slave for Pharaoh are not coming back, chummy.
Reread my comment. Gazans are essentially Egyptians, not even mentioning the pre-67 status. They don’t even speak the same Arabic dialect as those in the so-called West Bank, which is closer to Levantine/Syrian Arabic. There is plenty of land and opportunities to grow in Northern Sinai for them. If Egypt does not want the Gaza strip itself, I am pretty sure Israel would make it bloom as they did before. Just shut the door on your way our, please.
I think John Cleese (as so often) perfectly illustrated the mentality of the Palestinian militants: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmInkxbvlCs
My theory, and I hope I’m wrong.
Hamas deliberately went harder and further than previously in order to force Israel into a harder response. This can then be used as a rallying cry across the “Muslim World” against Israel (and “the west” in general to a lesser degree). We’ve seen the calls from Khaled Mashal for “global jihad” tomorrow (Friday 13th Oct) by all muslims against any and all Jewish / American targets (and their allies, which includes the UK) they can reach.
Israel unfortunately have no option but to respond the way hamas want them to. If they do not attempt to crush hamas, then it will simply happen again until they do.
The entire purpose is escalation, because hamas could see their primary aim – the destruction of Israel and the potential of a global caliphate – slipping out of reach with the recent negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. They’re also well-positioned, with much of the western world already self-hating amongst natives and having a large population of potential insurgents – if 1 out of every 100,000 (0.001%) of these potentials took any action, the western world would be crippled. There are approx 4m Muslims in the UK – if 40 of them took action on Friday, the UK would be “out of action” for some time. Remember that 7/7 was perpetrated by only 4. The London Bridge attacks with 3 (who had no explosives).
The BBC published an article this morning saying that over the last few days, there were 4x as many antisemitic incidents than for the same period last year, including physical assaults and property damage. Not hard evidence, but certainly an indicator that there is growing support in the UK for individual anti-Jewish “direct action”. With such a surge, and emotions running high, the chances of a more severe incident occurring increase exponentially.
(For the record, I’m not advocating for western action (official or otherwise) against “Muslims” as a group with my comments about potential insurgents etc. It’s a simple fact that a single terrorist incident can have disproportionate impact, especially against soft targets, which the UK is full of. We know that many amongst the Muslim population in the west have high levels of sympathy for the hamas cause, and the will to do something about it. There’s additionally a large number of non-muslim activists who have proven that they will use violence in the name of their cause, but without the impetus of martyrdom are not something I would consider as much of a threat.)
I think you’re absolutely correct about Hamas’s aim. It’s quite a clever strategy.
How much is designed to save the Iranian regime. It didn’t appear to be so popular IF this video is accurate.
https://twitter.com/glnoronha/status/1711101913544966265
Everything you say is true, yet we continue importing the seeds of our own destruction every day, with the complete approval of the Government and significant numbers of the general population including most of those running the education and media institutions. And with no political alternative to vote in. It’s shameful that it has come to this, but this country has now been invaded with its own peoples help and we can now only watch the inevitable result play out, whilst the useful idiots and fifth columnists within keep telling us how we are being culturally enriched and its all marvellous……
Mark – correct me if I’m wrong, you seem to think that ‘we’ – I’m assuming you mean the UK – are just sat here passively ingesting these ‘seeds of our own destruction’. I rather think we’ve been one of the more catastrophically horrendous of the sowers. We’re plums deep in this.
Exactly so. And just look at how 20 or 30 years of large-scale immigration by people of a different religion and culture, from an adjoining continent has worked out for the Palestinians.
While the Israelis and the Palestinians have been fighting for more than three-quarters of a century, and the current contretemps can be framed as more of the same, a small, queasy part of me senses that maybe this is endgame, that things are about to go bad and nasty, probably in ways we cannot yet foresee. Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I’m wrong. I suppose we’ll see, one way or the other.
The only thing that would concern me would be western nations committing troops to the place. I wouldn’t want to see a single British soldier suffer as much as a graze because of these two groups of warring religious zealots
I detect a distinct whiff of hypocrisy about this whole affair!
75 and more years ago it was the Jews who were the ‘terrorists’, and Great Britain the paramount power during the Palestine Mandate.
Have we all forgotten the atrocities of ‘Irgun & Co’, the indiscriminate bombing of the King David Hotel and the hanging of the two* British sergeants near Nantanya, and the subsequent booby trapping of their bodies?
(*Correction, NOT three.)
Thanks, most people seem to quickly forget when it comes to Jewish aggression. Don’t get me wrong, I am not defending the atrocities committed by Hamas. Just reminding people that Hamas is not the only guilty party here, and that includes the UK and the US.
Remind me what happened to the leader of these terrorist organizations
Between 1944 and 1948, we the British, hanged seven Jewish terrorists.
Which was a lot fewer than the number of British troops (and Jewish Mandate policemen) murdered by Shamir, Begin and their Stern Gang.
Indeed, I think the number was about 140.
Did some not achieve high political office despite their horrendous crimes?
If so does this not show that the Israeli has no problem with terrorist atrocities provided it involves the right kind of victim?
Two of the murdering blighters (as I pointed out to Gayle Rosenthal here), namely Begin and Shamir, were elected successive Prime Ministers of Israel, in which office they showed their penitence for their terrorist past by, er, awarding the Lehi Medal to all surviving members of the Stern Gang. Their atrocities were numerous and included the murder of scores of British troops, including two Sergeants kidnapped and slowly strangled to death by hanging from a tree.
The two Stern Gang comrades of theirs who murdered Churchill’s envoy, Lord Moyne, in cold blood in 1944 got an Israeli State funeral in the early 70s, prompting outraged protests from HMG – which were dismissed with contempt. But that doesn’t fit the narrative, does it?
Mr Begin, to lapse into the vernacular, ‘nearly swung’, but was ‘saved by the bell’. Disgraceful really when ‘all is said and done’, as I think you will agree?
Agree. It is interesting how in the last seventy years, the sympathy of the British media and the political establishment has tacked back and forth between the Israelis and Arabs starting, as you say, with a loathing of Irgun as intense as the current hatred of Hamas.
One problem is the western compulsion to try to frame most foreign stories in moralistic terms. Supposedly, if you can identify who are the goodies and who the baddies, all will be clear. The suggestion that all parties are at fault and have a case – that it is all shades of grey – is poorly received.
Actually trying to find a solution has become unfashionable.
Exactly! Whether it is Covid, Ukraine or a dozen other issues, the media has become a moronic, black-and-white, nuance- and context-free zone of moralistic bullshot.
Israel is one of the most secular nations on earth. There are orthodox Jews in Israel, but they are exempted from military duties. This is not a religious war on the Israel side. .
Religious zealots? The Jews are fighting for a homeland and safety in a hostile world after all you can’t deny there is history and recent history! (The Holocaust, Hamas, Iran et al)and the religious Jews don’t enlist.
The rhetoric may be more polished, and the weapons much more sophisticated, but the end result is still 1200 dead civilians from either side.
One team thinks they’re entitled to forcibly take land recently the home of others because they read in a book of fables, the other thinks it’s ok to shoot families in their beds because they follow a different book.
If there is anything in this religion lark then both will be looking forward to an eternity of fire and brimstone rather than any kind of Shangri La
What seems very likely is that the Palestinians, for all the hatred of Israel, are just useful puppets for their backer.
Ironically, the neighboring Arab countries, Qatar, Iran, care nothing for their welfare and that’s why Jordan themselves pounded the Palestinians in the 70s when they got uppity.
So, “things are about to go bad and nasty” only of Israel goes beyond Palestine. Gaza itself is easy, poor, confined, no real arms.
Question is what do you do about the real nasties on the region who are propping them up, who even other Arab countries can’t stand – Qatar and Iran.
Can Israel go for them, or will they satisfy their lust for revenge by dropping a few thousand tons of explosive on the rubble in Gaza?
You are very right on Qatar. While I see lots of coverage on Iran and its backing of the “cause” the fact that the Hamas leadership is Sunni extremist and based in U.S ally Qatar is going mostly unreported. They are housed in a luxury penthouse in Doha.And Al Jazeera the official channel of Qatar is over-populated with ex BBC types, and constantly trotting out pro-Hamas propaganda.
but but Qatar hosted a really good world cup so they can’t be all bad, surely?
..and nice David Beckam their proud ambassador for the cup
You forgot to mention Gary Neville
Undoubtedly they did host a good Cup. But they have also been home to every kind of terrorist outfit from Taliban to Hamas.
And Al Jazeera is absolute rabid hatred spouting.
The Palestinuians didn’t get uppity, they migrated in huge numbers into Jordan and tried to set up a state within a state. They were subsequently expelled by Jordan with tens of thousands killed.
And what will happen in GB if/when our imported Moslems try to assert their numbers and ‘energy’? As they already are doing in isolated cases.
There are areas of my home city in which I cannot walk after dark because I am white
Palestinian / Jordanian is a distinction without a difference.
Oh, that old trope: ‘Jordan is Palestine!’ Bull. Tell that to the Hshemite monarchy, or to the families who have been farming the West Bank for centuries.
The West Bank is in Jordan. ‘Palestine’ is a fiction.
I know there was a background – there somehow always is a reason for the massacre of tens of thousands, which seems to happen rather regularly in that region – still goes to show that there is very little compassion for the Palestinians among their Arab backers.
I believe one could consider trying to form a state within a state that theybwere guests in as “uppity”.
I think I agree with you. I have a bad feeling that this isn’t an isolated incident.
When asked everyone pinpoints the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand as the event that triggered the first world war. I wonder how many people at the time imagined how events might unfold
You may be right. The Netanyahu government’s goal may well be to drive the Gazan people out to Egypt, Turkey – hey, maybe now Olaf Scholz and VDL will agree to take them – then find a reason (it won’t be difficult) to turn on the West Bank and take that too. Israel, all Israel, from the Jordan border all the way to the port of Gaza.
This time last week, he was on the ropes, with jail looming. Now, if he can surf this wave, Israel’s long-term territorial goals might be delivered not over decades, but in a matter of weeks, months or a year or two.
Sounds like a good idea.
“Queasy” indeed. Notice that, in the past 7 days, hardly anyone has so much as heard the word “Ukraine.” Is the smell of defeat in the air there? Is it “change the subject” time, for the Biden administration I mean? An election is, mind you, just over the horizon. The orange man just happens to be polling well. Some $5 Billion showed up on Iran’s door step recently, care of the US government. Too cynical?
…Or they just saw a great opportunity to murder as many Jews as possible.
Why attempt to rationalize an atrocity committed by fanatics of an irrational ideology?
Think horses not zebras, right?
There is little point in twisting yourself into mental gymnastics by trying to apply logic to what is happening. Least of all in trying to find any room for moderation or groundless hope.
Israel is a small country surrounded by hostile neighbours who would like to destroy it. Either directly with military means or with state sponsored terrorism. Its enemies are always sniffing the wind for any scent of weakness. The only way it has any kind of viable future is to maintain a credible and obvious deterrent.
Israel has said that they will fight to the end for their country and I am convinced that they actually would, including a nuclear option if necessary. But they must convince their surrounding enemies that this is true. That they are prepared to act entirely without mercy if needed. The whole country is a hostage to its geopolitical situation.
The last thing I would want to see is more horror piled upon horror but people need to be realistic. It is inevitable and no amount of hand-wringing will stop it. The genie was out of the bottle on day one and only a truly terrible amount of blood letting is going to put him back in.
I can’t remember who said it, but I believe it was an Israeli Soldier/Politician of the last century. It looks to be the reality to me.
.”The Arabs can afford to lose many times., Israel cannot afford to lose once.”
Thank you for your instructive article, in particular for looking back on what happened in the shade just before the attack and seemed trivial at the time. This is rare in journalism but often revealing. I appreciate that very much.
Perhaps because he is not journalist !
“They cannot hope to find Hamas leaders who have had years to prepare properly fitted-out, secret bunkers which may be known to Israeli agents, as well as their actual hideouts known only to themselves.”
I agree that the hostages will likely die… that is terrible but unavoidable if you wish to save future hostages. But I don’t understand the pessimism on finding Hamas leaders in Gaza. How easy is it to leave the “open air prison”? Assuming it is not easy, they will be there, in Gaza, somewhere. Why can’t the Israelis search and destroy? (Gaza is 141 sq miles – roughly 1/4 the size of Greater London.)
Or just smaller than the Isle of Wight! (148 sq miles.)
Yes, c. 141 square miles: almost exactly the same area as Rutland; or the amount of territory the State Dept’s Ukrainian legions have regained in their Great Spring Offensive (not counting the further 332 square miles lost during the same period to Russia).
There are very large tunnels from Gaza into Egypt. It is true that Sisi hates Hamas and might like to see it smashed but he has his own public opinion to worry about. Also Egyptian control of their end of the tunnels may not be complete. Incidentally, the Egyptians could open up a corridor for evacuation of civilians from Gaza from their own official crossing point, but have so far refused to do so.
“Hamas decided to force its way into the Israeli-Saudi dialogue — and to get something for itself.”
Well, Hamas certainly got everybody’s attention! What their goal was at this time (apart from the commitment in their Constitution to destroy Israel and kill all Israelis) we are left little wiser in this article.
As for the title of this article, that is not explored at all. Yes there have been security lapses. But as a civilised society Israel has to respond to what appears to be peace gestures where they are offered. Was that a mistake? If you think it was then you accept that Palestinians will always be implacable foes of Israel and will always have to be imprisoned in the Gaza strip forever more.
As for this counter-incursion by the IDF, Moshe Dayan stated a position that anybody committing such an attack must be punished so severely that they will not think it worth attempting again. Right now, that would seem to be the only thing Israel can achieve.
We need to recognise that this conflict has been going on for over THREE THOUSAND years. King David commenced his reign with a lament for his predecessor King Saul and his son, David’s beloved friend Jonathan: “Tell it not in Gath; publish it not in the streets of Ashkelon, lest the daughters of the Philistines rejoice”. These words came vividly to mind as we saw footage of the Palestinian terrorists glorying in their atrocities.
According to Professor Ze’ev Herzog, Department of Archaeology and Ancient Near Eastern Cultures, University of Tel Aviv:-
“Following 70 years of intensive excavations in the Land of Israel, archaeologists have found out: The patriarchs’ acts are legendary, the Israelites did not sojourn in Egypt or make an exodus, they did not conquer the land. Neither is there any mention of the empire of David and Solomon, nor of the source of belief in the God of Israel. These facts have been known for years, but Israel is a stubborn people and nobody wants to hear about it.”
See https://www.angelfire.com/folk/benjo4u/Religion/docs/Blasting_Blasting_the_Bible.htm for a response to Herzog from someone holding the majority opinion among archeologists.
Years ago the eminent British archaeologist Sir Mortimer Wheeler was asked “Is archaeology a science based subject, or an arts based subject?”He replied “ neither, it’s a vendetta!”
This acerbic academic debate between biblical maximalists and minimalists is almost as poisonous as the contemporary Arab- Israel conflict, and rather proves Wheeler’s case!
I remember when the IDF went to destroy the tunnels in Gaza not that many years ago. They let Hamas set up in ambush for the troops that were going to go across the border then leveled a path to their objective with an absolutely massive and effective artillery barrage. The IDF took surprisingly few casualties but Hamas and civilian casualties were very high.
The problem I suspect with identifying Hamas and Civilian casualties is rather like that of the IRA/Civilian casualties, they didn’t wear uniforms unless attending funerals.
Whilst I agree with the overall analysis, why not mention the warnings of an attack from Egypt?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67082047
‘Lies! Fake news!’ says Bibi. So that’s settled, then.
Politically, though, the past six days may have saved his smoked salmon. Massive nationwide protests by half the Israeli population; reservists refusing duty; international criticism; tottering Government; corruption conviction and jail looming – but now, suddenly, he’s safe at the head of a unity Government with the whole of Israel behind him, a blank cheque from the western world, the wind in his sails and the prospect of achieving in weeks or months the sort of Israeli strategic aims that might have taken decades. At last, at last, he could finally emerge from his brother Yonathan’s heroic shadow…
Truly a week is a long time in politics.
Yes indeed, a ‘miracle’ performed before our very eyes!
Yep, Hamas have rescued Bibi. More evidence of just how brain-dead stupid the Islamists are. No amount of performative mayhem can rescue them from their own incompetence, can it?
Sooner or later ‘the Arabs’ will get the Atomic Bomb.
If the current impasse continues they will have NO compunction about using it, despite the fact that Israel has a very potent, submarine based second-strike capability, that will turn most of the Middle East ‘to glass’.
As neither side has the genius of Ancient Rome, this will inevitably be the outcome of such a long running conflict.
I think that, thanks to Obama-Biden, the danger in that direction comes more from Iran than from the Arabs.
My generation tend to use the word ‘Arab’ or even something a tiny bit more pejorative, as a collective noun for all followers of the Prophet.
However I agree with you, at present Iran appears to be the ‘front runner’ closely followed by Pakistan.
I prefer Sir Winston’s term: Mohammedists
Oddly, WSC himself is said to have considered converting to Islam back in the in the 1920s.
That’s Harrow for you!
Pakistan, an increasingly aggressively Muslim country, although not Arab is well supplied with nuclear weapons.
They seem to murder their own as often as anyone else.
Not all Muslims are so stupid. Leadership in Iran, Qatar and the Palestinians may be, but there are a lot who aren’t, and I’m fairly sure that if push comes shove to a lot of ‘secular’ Arabs would happily sort out the martyr brigade.
Is the Israeli sub-fleet that potent? They don’t let much slip about their WMD – but AIUI, they have three subs equipped with cruise missiles with nuclear warheads. Given their relatively shallow coastal waters, the subs can’t be that big – nothing like Trident-size – and one would assume the missiles to a. be low-flying and subsonic b. limited in range – 1,500 miles or so – and c. limited in number and payload.
So far as I know, Pakistan would outgun Israel in the nuclear sphere – and from what I’ve read, the Pakistani deterrent was quietly and to a large extent funded by the Saudis, on the understanding that it was a joint asset.
Exactly, an excellent military appreciation if I may say so.
“Sadat had no need of an actual military victory to achieve his aim, which was to activate US diplomacy to finally end the conflict with Israel.” This is simply not true. Mr. Luttwak omits the fact that Syria attacked Israel also. With Soviet arms and training, both country’s leaders truly believed their armies could destory the Jewish state. Earlier in 1973 Sadat had called 1973 “the year of decision.” He wasn’t talking about diplomacy.
They very nearly did, the Golan Heights tank battles were so close to being a Syrian victory. Had the Syrian’s a commander the equal of the Israeli commander, Syria would have swept up all the Israeli units before any help got to them.
They were the big two, but ten other States also contributed troops against Israel in ’73: Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan, Libya, Iraq, Saudi, Kuwait and, in a sign of the Cold War times, Cuba and North Korea.
Unfortunately, Luttwak is probably right. All Israel will get in the end is revenge, an eye for an eye. The media has chosen a narrative and told us who is right and who is wrong, and of course who to root for, eschewing any discussion of the complicated relationships between Hamas and Israel and Hamas and the citizens of Gaza.
I have many questions, but I don’t expect answers from the MSM, who will be cheerleaders for Israel instead of journalists. Is Israel willing to occupy Gaza again to keep Hamas out of power? How popular is Hamas in Gaza? I suspect the citizens of Gaza will rally behind Hamas and any occupation will be a continuing bloodbath after the bloodbath of an invasion, another intifada. No one knows how long the world’s sympathy for Israel will last if they occupy the strip. But if Israel doesn’t occupy Gaza, Hamas will remain in power and all the killing will be for nothing.
And what of the Hostages? There is a glimmer of hope that they will not be killed because killing them will only make the world’s support for any Israeli occupation stronger, but Hamas is made up of religious fanatics so who knows.
What are the real chances this will become a wider war? Do the Arab countries still care enough about Palestinians to fight a protracted war with Israel?
I don’t think the media know or cares about the answers to these questions; they only care about ratings.
Twitter/X ain’t censored anymore. Pictures and videos of Hamas’ atrocities are widely available. Legacy media has already lost most of its credibility by propping up Quid Pro Joe. If they try to tell us Hamas murders are the good guys, it won’t work. Beheading babies is unforgivable and unforgettable.
Hamas is guilty of crimes against humanity. If you have any doubt about this watch the videos posted by Hamas of the atrocities of October 7.
After 1,200 dead civilians, Israel will pay absolutely no attention to international calls for a ceasefire. The Siege of Mosul took about 6 months. Mosul has about 1.8 million people. Gaza has 2.3 million. If Israel is relentless in attacking Gaza, using its firepower against any structure that Hamas shoots from without regard to human shields, it should take no more than 9 months to reduce Hamas to minimal military power. Israel can use tear gas or vomit gas in tunnels. It’s against the laws of war, but Hamas is holding hostages, which is also a violation. Israeli casualties might be 900 to 1,200 dead. It might be worth it to eliminate Hamas.
The presumed hope of a Hamas Israeli reconciliation, as the final achievement of a global reconciliation with the Sunits, is absolutely preposterous. Anyone can compare the interests and the ideology of Saudi Arabia to those of Hamas. It seems that the blinding conception of Hamas as a terrorist organization with civilian preoccupations is, alone, the strategic error of Israel, alongside with the secret agency failure.
It’s like a surgeon who leaves one cancer cell behind in your body while hoping it doesn’t grow.
You might more reasonably say that following the same old course of battering the Palestinians while offering them no hope for a decent future amounts to a man getting a lung transplant… and then taking up smoking 60 a day again.
It will send a message to the PLO and the rest of the folks there, not to ever think about this again, and take pause, which we all know the Palestinians are not capable of that.. But for now, It’s Clobbering Time.
How could Israel miss the build up of weapons?
they are built underground
Israels need to decide whether to be the perpetrators of ethnic cleansing or the victims of it. There has never been any other choice.
War 101: when you conquer a people, you force them off their land, kill the ones who remain, and don’t give a crap what happens to the rest. Our Western-educated elites have spent the last 50 years pretending this isn’t true, and Israel at least is paying the price now. Will they learn from their mistake?
I think there’s still a rather large ‘if’ here regarding whether the Israeilis will invade on a large scale in the short term. Despite the many pronouncements and eggings-on in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attacks the Isralis now appear to be experiencing the same problems the Russians have encountered in the last two years.
It’s one thing ‘mobilising ‘reservists, another thing entirely equipping them, organising them into formations, re-upping their training and all the other things they need to do before any ground invasion can take place. This could well be doubly problematic with so much of the West’s available stocks of materiel being funnelled to Ukraine – artillery shells may well be an issue here.
There are other lessons the Israelis may have learned from the recent Ukraine summer offensive. Whe have seen how the (to use Edward’s term) ‘optimistic bias’ of the West around it’s procession of ‘game changers’ – Leopard IIs, Bradleys, Challengers, HIMARS etc – has been left in tatters across the Ukrainian battlefield. The vaunted ‘active armour’ systems are being routinely dealt with now by hand-held Russian munitions & that something weights 65 tonnes isn’t necessarily any kind of advantage in smashed urban landscapes – probably quite the opposite. The IDF will be nowhere near invulnerable in their APVs & tanks – some of which already appear to have been knocked out this week.
With that in mind I think the answer to ‘what will Israel achieve’ is certainly a great deal more slaughter, but also the strong possibility of a costly and potentially humiliating strategic defeat. .
To add to my previous comment – I think the Israeli incursion into Lebanon in 2015 is likely a more instructive historical precedent than 1973.
If they have any sense, they will sit back and bomb the crap out them. But ultimately, I think the resolve is high to wipe Hamas out after the recent attack, and if that means taking more casualties then they have been used to, then so be it. I think they really pulled the lions tail this time….
The Israeli Trophy system, and similar active defenses against anti-tank missiles, have changed the balance between defending infantry and attacking armored vehicles. The Trophy system detects incoming rockets and missiles, firing small penetrators into their paths to shred them before they can impact the armored vehicle. Trophy claims a 100% success rate in both tests and combat. It’s installed on over 1,000 Israeli tanks and other armored vehicles. The US Army has installed Trophy on US tanks. Trophy makes the success of ground attacks much more likely.
@Douglas – That’s what the brochures say, but early indications are that it’s not performing anywhere near as well as expected – and in an urban environment the ranges we’re talking about can be very short indeed. Here’s a video from this week of an RPG hit already. Wouldn’t be the first boondoggle the West have invested in.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/XLJpUfxCEXtf/
Just subscribed to unherd for a quid. Already worth it. Article above and comments below add to my understanding.
THE most cogent analysis I have read anywhere so far.
glyn harries
Is the difference of Jew hatred between Hamas and the PA all that great?
Great analysis! Hamas by its abhorrent violence may have forced Saudi Arabia to (on behalf of Arabs and Muslims everywhere) make very stringent demands on Israel before joining the Abraham Accords, and one of this will be an independent Palestinian state.
..” independent Palestinian State”. Don’t think it would make any difference in the deep resentment and hostility to a country called Israel. We heard the pro-Palestinian slogans and demands in demonstrations all over the Western World: “from the River To the Sea”.
Yes, indeed. Call it a territory, state, statelet, kingdom, borough, colony, nation, village, town, hamlet, city, province or country. The goal of eliminating all Jews would be the same. Don’t believe us, believe them!