Good article IMHO. Appreciate the authors work.
Bizarre sequence of events anyway you try to slice it.

“…It is impossible to know whether Prigozhin’s weekend adventure will make him a major player in Russia’s future, or award him a death sentence…”

I cannot see how it can be anything but the latter, he has nowhere to run. A return to Russia is pretty much out no matter what happens to Putin. He will now have lost the entirety of his wealth that was not outside Russia. He cannot survive in Belarus without maintaining a private army and the chance of Lukashenko allowing that is zero. If Putin survives for any length of time Prigozhin would quite likely get poisoned soon enough. The idea of an escape to Africa is fantasy – in a land full of mafiosi who are well ensconced, Prigozhin managing to establish himself in any context before he is divested of his wealth and gets killed is I would say unlikely in the extreme. It would be different if it was Kadyrov, who has the lawless Chechen countryside he can slink away into, plus, as a muslim brother there would be someone who would take him in, like Saudi Arabia did with Idi Amin. Prigozhin on other hand is a sitting duck exposed out in the open.

what a bizarre 24 hours.
if 25,000 troops could do that, imagine what 25,000 of someone else’s troops could do.

Given that a similar failed putsch eventually led to the collapse of the Tsarist regime in 1917, we have to see this as a serious blow to Putin.
Almost totally isolated from the real world, up till now Putin has clung to his mystical vision that Russia always wins in the end (factually false, of course. Russia has lost more wars than it won since Peter the Great. It’s just that most Russians in power are ignorant of their own history).
But now, reality has punched its way through the mysticism. No Russian knows how to win this war, or even how to avoid defeat. The West’s will has proven stronger than Putin’s, and hanging on til the West “tires” just loses more territory.
Putin may eventually blow the nuclear plant. But that will totally isolate him. Even China cannot stand for that.
Prigozhin’s contribution was to finally reveal to Putin that his plan can’t work. He now has no rational courses of action save withdrawal.
So now, the only real question is: is Putin still rational?

The most interesting interpretation of the Prigozhin “coup” attempt is that Prigozhin is, and always has been Putin’s creature and that the “coup” was Putin Mazkirovka to flush out disloyal elements and expose Western government interference channels.
Internally, Putin is strengthened. Putin is immensely popular in Russia, and an extremely canny operator. Underestimate him at you peril. As far as I can see, he is playing the western elites’ hatred of him brilliantly. Any interpretation suggesting Putin is losing control of Russia is delusional.

Interesting article. I have no inside information but the sequence of events suggested to me a “last throw of the dice” by an increasingly isolated, marginalised and desperate individual.

The immediate question that intrigues me is whether Kiev deliberately paused their counter-offensive while this drama played out – hoping it would lead to Russian forces being withdrawn from the front line to suppress Wagner. If so, perhaps we will now see a reinvigoration of their attacks southwards.

Pugachev, an excellent comparison. Still I wish writers would explain further the many talented nature of this man: prisoner in Gorbachov’s time, baker or something to Putin, something which is always announced but never explained how the chef morphed into running a troll factory as good or better than that orchestrated by the might of the British government, the GDU: suddenly the leader of pretty large mercenary armies, smaller than the militias owned by Poroshenko’s governers’ militias but big enough to wage war in several African countries at once. Does he have fabulous organising skills? Is he particularly good at selecting staff? A true Renaissance man.

The best part of all this is that the only competent Russian general, Surovikin, was also much too close to Vagner.
Putin is now so paranoid, he will never put him in any position of power again.
Thankfully, incompetents like Shoigu and Gerasimov will stay put until they die.
Along with the most incompetent of them all: V. V. Putin.

The explanation I haven’t seen discussed in this article or elsewhere (perhaps because it is unrealistic) is that Prigozhin was encouraged by the CIA, and perhaps Ukraine’s security services, to attempt a rebellion that would supposedly trigger an uprising by anti-Putin forces in Russia and perhaps leave Prigozhin in charge.
From the perspective of the West, this type of uprising would succeed even if it failed because it would politically weaken Putin (as it appears to have done). I’m reminded of the drone attacks on the Kremlin that preceded the Ukrainian spring offensive: done to humiliate Putin and demoralize his supporters and military.
I suppose the counterargument to this possibility is who in their right mind would want Prigozhin in charge?
As the author notes, now we must all wait to see how the consequences of this farce play out.

The beaming photo of Prigozhin, after calling off his march on Moscow when he had reached Tula, surely says it all! He is a big winner in all of this. Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov are big losers.
All that remains to be seen is what prizes have been showered on Prigozhin and what fate awaits the losers. And, most importantly, who will replace Putin, which is unlikely to be Prigozhin, and when will this happen. Quite a diversion for the Special Military Operation.

A big article based on almost nothing

As Russians used to say, “Better the Czar you know.”

From the lack of support (and defence) of Putin during the putsch, right up to the time Prigozhin realized taking Moscow was impossible, we now see that only one Russian really supports this war:
V. V. Putin.
Everyone else, from Prigozhin to ordinary Russians, now knows the war is lost.
Moreover, Putin is desperate. He wouldn’t go out among the general population unless that was his last hope.
So, the only real question:
Who will remove Putin, either from office–or from this world?
There are people in the Kremlin deciding this as we post…

one more victim of maskyrovka…little do they know, except their wishful thinking.

I thought it was theatre, something showy to rationalize using weapons that shouldn’t be considered. Now, perhaps its just the off ramp for the cook. He got tired of the clowns garb?
Either way, I dont think it bodes well for people caught up in this war.

I firmly believe that soon a time of peace will come.

No one in the West can possibly know at this stage, but perhaps the Wagner Group really is being moved to Belarus to “guard” the Russian nuclear weapons that were now there. 48 hours ago, the people who are having kittens over that, were wetting themselves with glee that Yevgeny Prigozhin, and thus whoever had paid him, were going to be getting their hands on the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. That is the thing with mercenaries. They belong to whoever pays them more. So a private company with what amounted to vast and expanding territories in Africa and elsewhere may indeed soon have de facto control of nuclear weapons as well.

Isn’t this an ideal opportunity for Putin to withdraw and place the blame firmly on Prigo’s shoulders?

I still think the whole affair could be Putin cooked up ruse to confuse the enemy.. or to get Prigozhin to Belarus with his 25,000 band soon to follow (as newly recruited regular Russian troops? ..immediately reverting to Prigozhin’s command upon arrival?).. in order to launch an attack on Kyev.. Putin is a wily old bear.. and so too is his friend Prigozhin.. feichimís.