Future historians will struggle to explain the recent dramatic rise of America’s global power. Faced with a long list of irreconcilable differences at home, and two consecutive presidents whose distinguishing characteristic is the intensity of the opposition they provoke, this century is so often painted as one of US decline.
But the blatant contradiction between disarray at home and increased power abroad has a simple explanation: the greater part of American power does not derive from what the US itself, let alone individual presidents, are able to do, but from the cooperation and support it receives from friendly countries around the world. US power depends on the magnitude and the cohesion of its alliances — and the latter can change very quickly.
This, of course, is key. Years of talk in Europe of replacing the “increasingly outdated” US-directed Nato alliance with an alternative centred in the European Union ended abruptly last February when the Russians attempted to seize Kyiv in a day and Ukraine in a week. Had they succeeded, as both Russian and US intelligence had predicted (it was the always-wrong CIA that prompted Biden’s offer to evacuate Zelenskyy), Nato would have collapsed.
Yet because the Ukrainian guards fought off elite Russian paratroopers at the Antonov airfield, inaugurating fierce resistance across the entire front, and because the US and UK immediately reacted by promising military aid, a seemingly moribund Nato was suddenly resurrected.
Without waiting for discussions or agreements, some countries simply acted: Norway airlifted 2,000 LAW anti-tank weapons, which are point-and-shoot rockets, neither new nor advanced — but just the thing to fire at Russian armour flooding into the country. And its example was followed by Denmark, Canada and then others, while far more advanced missiles arrived very quickly from the US and the UK, inaugurating a flow of weapons from most Nato countries that still continues.
Seeing all this, Sweden’s government abandoned its long-cherished stance of neutrality to apply for Nato membership, while Finland, which shares a very long border with Russia, felt confident enough to sign up as well. Russian threats were met with ridicule: “We already have 50,000 Russians buried in our country from the last war… but we have room for many more.”
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SubscribeI love these positive posts on Unherd, as a corrective to the “end is nigh” depressives who get far too much exposure. Of course, that assumes you feel a rebirth of “American power” is possibly a good thing…
“Of course, that assumes you feel a rebirth of “American power” is possibly a good thing…”
I certainly do. Given that the world needs a policeman and that the UK has been too small for the job for nearly a century, America is by far the next best choice.
Congressional paralysis could terminate this in a heartbeat.
Congress is run by a uniparty despite appearances to the contrary. Only the foreign press thinks otherwise.
Congress is run by a uniparty despite appearances to the contrary. Only the foreign press thinks otherwise.
It’s somewhat true. In order for the globalized world to exist, somebody has to enforce the rules and keep the sea lanes open. The US sort of fell into the role after the World Wars, and how well they’ve done depends on who you ask. America has always been an awkward fit for the role, being traditionally isolationist and inwardly focused, with a high level of diversity that practically guarantees a steady supply of internal disputes, and with an arcane and complex system of government power divided between state and federal authorities. The domestic unity and external ambition required to sustain an empire like the British simply doesn’t exist here and probably never will. America has the resources and military skill to succeed in the role of global policeman/superpower, but lacks the character and the will to ever fully embrace the role. The former will always be there because of America’s size and history. The latter must come from external pressures, both credible threats and encouragement from allies who need America to do what they’re good at, fight wars, threaten to fight wars, and design, build, and maintain the weapons to fight wars.
The US has learnt the lessons of 1919-1923, when they thought they had “fought the war to end all wars”, and indulged in gratuitous disarmament.
They did NOT repeat that mistake in 1945. All wars HOT or COLD are great for business, as Mr Luttwak must know.
In the past 50 years, Americans have shown themselves to be good and the latter two, but not so much the “fighting wars” part.
The troops do as told. When directed to dismantle ISIS, game over. Take away certain rules and the carnage that follows ends the conflict. The wars that the US abandoned were not because of a lack of fight but because politicians refused to accept the carnage of war and were afraid of “escalating”.
The troops do as told. When directed to dismantle ISIS, game over. Take away certain rules and the carnage that follows ends the conflict. The wars that the US abandoned were not because of a lack of fight but because politicians refused to accept the carnage of war and were afraid of “escalating”.
The US has learnt the lessons of 1919-1923, when they thought they had “fought the war to end all wars”, and indulged in gratuitous disarmament.
They did NOT repeat that mistake in 1945. All wars HOT or COLD are great for business, as Mr Luttwak must know.
In the past 50 years, Americans have shown themselves to be good and the latter two, but not so much the “fighting wars” part.
Congressional paralysis could terminate this in a heartbeat.
It’s somewhat true. In order for the globalized world to exist, somebody has to enforce the rules and keep the sea lanes open. The US sort of fell into the role after the World Wars, and how well they’ve done depends on who you ask. America has always been an awkward fit for the role, being traditionally isolationist and inwardly focused, with a high level of diversity that practically guarantees a steady supply of internal disputes, and with an arcane and complex system of government power divided between state and federal authorities. The domestic unity and external ambition required to sustain an empire like the British simply doesn’t exist here and probably never will. America has the resources and military skill to succeed in the role of global policeman/superpower, but lacks the character and the will to ever fully embrace the role. The former will always be there because of America’s size and history. The latter must come from external pressures, both credible threats and encouragement from allies who need America to do what they’re good at, fight wars, threaten to fight wars, and design, build, and maintain the weapons to fight wars.
Fair point Mr Albo! However, in this particular case, and regarding this particular subject, the modelling the author relies upon is based on inductive, even sentimental, reasoning. This is not 1946, and not even 1968. What is unfolding (“first gradually and increasingly suddenly”) in the USA: culturally, ideologically and socio-politically, has no analog for any historian to draw from.
“Future historians will struggle to explain the recent dramatic rise of America’s global power”.
That is mere assertion. But the facts are that besides some high tech trinketry, fracking rigs, and (expensive) weaponry the core US economy has been outsourced elsewhere, it’s national debt-to-GDP matches post WW2 levels – only this time without the engine or global reach or influence to claw it back. Its citizens are de facto wards of the state (almost 50% are net recipients of govt transfer-payment largesse) its demographics have fundamentally shifted, institutions are atrophied and/or captured, and at street level Americans do not seem like they much care for what the “American Dream” even means anymore. And they (mostly) seem to have little but distrust and contempt for each other; almost as much as most of the world now does, also.
I could go on…
The point is that a country/society like the USA was only ever going to destroy itself from within, and it’s doing a fine job. To pontificate endlessly about the challenges its “peers” and/or perceived “rivals” may (or may not) face is displacement activity. UnHerd readers should take a moment and listen to what Peter Turchin, founder of Cliodynamics, contributed to this very portal just the other day.
The decline of and then ultimately, I posit, the break up of the American Federation, whether de facto (culturally or economically) or de jure (secession) seems well underway. Sure, it will take a long time and with many twists and turns in the plot. But the historical forces that were once centripetal for US society have turned irretrievably centrifugal, amplified by the power of the internet. And yes, that is obviously also just an assertion, but I submit that the evidence in full view today better fits this perspective than Luttwak’s who, on the basis of an incomplete model, seems to believe that there exists some “innately embedded mean” for the US to regress back towards from here.
Whatever you say about the US, the Chinese situation is far worse. They are facing a massive aging of their population, and decline of their work force. Actual population decline started last year, and birth rates are now below one child per women. This is in a country stuck in the middle-income trap, with no effective pension.health-care scheme for retirees, and an economy propped up by production of excess housing and infrastructure.
The claim pertains to the USA which is about to sidestep reality and resume its rightful place at the head of the Great Human Table. Taking kicks at China adds little and solves less.
For what it’s worth I know China quite well; have criss-crossed it and still do business there. I’ll offer this Arthur: it is not for nothing that the west invented the phrase “oriental inscrutability”. The underlying nature of Chinese civilization, its essence, evades Western thinking, and western minds. Always has, most likely always will.
I find it curious how, despite have correctly predicted and/or assessed so little about China …well…ever… it doesn’t seem to give more people pause in their pronouncements about what China was, is and might (or will) become in global society.
Maybe it’s worth remembering that when Chinese culture was on top – you could say when China had the opportunity to seize its own “unipolar moment” – rather than colonize, re-educate or strip mine the West (or anywhere else), it withdrew into itself, banned ship building and spiraled into Confucian torpor.
How different to the endlessly proselytizing, all-seeing, all conquering races of Western Europe.
Lucky Europe
China failed to discover and plunder the Americas when it clearly had the opportunity to do so at the beginning of the 15th century
By allowing Europeans to do so, almost by default, meant that the World is, and shall remain ‘European’‘.
Ah, and there you have it: Binary proposition; zero sum game. An expectation for multipolarity anchored by respect for the customs, narratives, histories and beliefs of the other is so…passe.
“Why not celebrate the End of History by supersizing your Mc Donalds with another (free!) side of Mc Donnel Douglas, messrs Chang/Ivanov/Suarez/Mdluli.
Quod erat demonstrandum
Ah, and there you have it: Binary proposition; zero sum game. An expectation for multipolarity anchored by respect for the customs, narratives, histories and beliefs of the other is so…passe.
“Why not celebrate the End of History by supersizing your Mc Donalds with another (free!) side of Mc Donnel Douglas, messrs Chang/Ivanov/Suarez/Mdluli.
Quod erat demonstrandum
What a ridiculous comment. As if confuscian-era china would have or could have become a “unipolar” power; the concept didn’t exist then, nor could it have. e
You miss the very obvious point that “Unipolar” is a modern term, used here purely for convenience and illustration. When the Chinese had an opportunity to dominate other civilizations, they declined.
It is not controversial to make the observation that the West sees any other way of living as an existential threat. And forget the rhetoric. Judge the actions, and policy implementations.
You miss the very obvious point that “Unipolar” is a modern term, used here purely for convenience and illustration. When the Chinese had an opportunity to dominate other civilizations, they declined.
It is not controversial to make the observation that the West sees any other way of living as an existential threat. And forget the rhetoric. Judge the actions, and policy implementations.
China failed to discover and plunder the Americas when it clearly had the opportunity to do so at the beginning of the 15th century
By allowing Europeans to do so, almost by default, meant that the World is, and shall remain ‘European’‘.
What a ridiculous comment. As if confuscian-era china would have or could have become a “unipolar” power; the concept didn’t exist then, nor could it have. e
The claim pertains to the USA which is about to sidestep reality and resume its rightful place at the head of the Great Human Table. Taking kicks at China adds little and solves less.
For what it’s worth I know China quite well; have criss-crossed it and still do business there. I’ll offer this Arthur: it is not for nothing that the west invented the phrase “oriental inscrutability”. The underlying nature of Chinese civilization, its essence, evades Western thinking, and western minds. Always has, most likely always will.
I find it curious how, despite have correctly predicted and/or assessed so little about China …well…ever… it doesn’t seem to give more people pause in their pronouncements about what China was, is and might (or will) become in global society.
Maybe it’s worth remembering that when Chinese culture was on top – you could say when China had the opportunity to seize its own “unipolar moment” – rather than colonize, re-educate or strip mine the West (or anywhere else), it withdrew into itself, banned ship building and spiraled into Confucian torpor.
How different to the endlessly proselytizing, all-seeing, all conquering races of Western Europe.
Lucky Europe
Luttwak is talking about America’s global military, not economic, power.
Whatever you say about the US, the Chinese situation is far worse. They are facing a massive aging of their population, and decline of their work force. Actual population decline started last year, and birth rates are now below one child per women. This is in a country stuck in the middle-income trap, with no effective pension.health-care scheme for retirees, and an economy propped up by production of excess housing and infrastructure.
Luttwak is talking about America’s global military, not economic, power.
Of course it is.
Unless you believe that world dominated by China is better option for the West.
Have you been to my country? Have you seen the once beautiful cities ringed with drug addicted, defeated people, many of them veterans of wars for “American-power?” People who can’t afford housing, partially because of outrageous inflation partially caused by our proxy war in Ukraine?
American “power’ is for the elites and by the elites only. The tiny .01% in our country. This article is bollocks.
The awful inflation was created by an unrestrained Congress, not anything external. The defeated people are those held there by people who think they are being kind by ignoring them. Much easier to throw money than to implement helpful policies a bit at a time. Politicians rewarded for not solving problems?
The awful inflation was created by an unrestrained Congress, not anything external. The defeated people are those held there by people who think they are being kind by ignoring them. Much easier to throw money than to implement helpful policies a bit at a time. Politicians rewarded for not solving problems?
Id rather a 4000km border with US border states than a long border with Russia.
A much better thing than Chinese or Russian power.
“Of course, that assumes you feel a rebirth of “American power” is possibly a good thing…”
I certainly do. Given that the world needs a policeman and that the UK has been too small for the job for nearly a century, America is by far the next best choice.
Fair point Mr Albo! However, in this particular case, and regarding this particular subject, the modelling the author relies upon is based on inductive, even sentimental, reasoning. This is not 1946, and not even 1968. What is unfolding (“first gradually and increasingly suddenly”) in the USA: culturally, ideologically and socio-politically, has no analog for any historian to draw from.
“Future historians will struggle to explain the recent dramatic rise of America’s global power”.
That is mere assertion. But the facts are that besides some high tech trinketry, fracking rigs, and (expensive) weaponry the core US economy has been outsourced elsewhere, it’s national debt-to-GDP matches post WW2 levels – only this time without the engine or global reach or influence to claw it back. Its citizens are de facto wards of the state (almost 50% are net recipients of govt transfer-payment largesse) its demographics have fundamentally shifted, institutions are atrophied and/or captured, and at street level Americans do not seem like they much care for what the “American Dream” even means anymore. And they (mostly) seem to have little but distrust and contempt for each other; almost as much as most of the world now does, also.
I could go on…
The point is that a country/society like the USA was only ever going to destroy itself from within, and it’s doing a fine job. To pontificate endlessly about the challenges its “peers” and/or perceived “rivals” may (or may not) face is displacement activity. UnHerd readers should take a moment and listen to what Peter Turchin, founder of Cliodynamics, contributed to this very portal just the other day.
The decline of and then ultimately, I posit, the break up of the American Federation, whether de facto (culturally or economically) or de jure (secession) seems well underway. Sure, it will take a long time and with many twists and turns in the plot. But the historical forces that were once centripetal for US society have turned irretrievably centrifugal, amplified by the power of the internet. And yes, that is obviously also just an assertion, but I submit that the evidence in full view today better fits this perspective than Luttwak’s who, on the basis of an incomplete model, seems to believe that there exists some “innately embedded mean” for the US to regress back towards from here.
Of course it is.
Unless you believe that world dominated by China is better option for the West.
Have you been to my country? Have you seen the once beautiful cities ringed with drug addicted, defeated people, many of them veterans of wars for “American-power?” People who can’t afford housing, partially because of outrageous inflation partially caused by our proxy war in Ukraine?
American “power’ is for the elites and by the elites only. The tiny .01% in our country. This article is bollocks.
Id rather a 4000km border with US border states than a long border with Russia.
A much better thing than Chinese or Russian power.
I love these positive posts on Unherd, as a corrective to the “end is nigh” depressives who get far too much exposure. Of course, that assumes you feel a rebirth of “American power” is possibly a good thing…
Biden is an empty suit. His sole function is to serve as a power-gathering and channeling entity for other, far more capable people. Also, I have a feeling that although he and his ilk have the utmost of contempt for Donald J. Trump and his ilk, they view him as being a dope, but an American dope, and therefore, far cleverer than anyone else anywhere else, but not quite so clever as us. This tendency perhaps accounts for the odd continuity of American policy even between vastly differing administrations – they have contempt for who came before, but far greater contempt for anyone else, anywhere else. (I use contempt here in the mild and severe forms, depending on case and context.) At times, administrations have contempt for prior policy only because it didn’t go far enough, not for the policy itself. There’s a constant race to outdo the previous administration, and a desperate look at the next election to come, and the ticking clock that never stops. In China, Russia, and South Africa, it is not this way. Leaders have no fear of elections, and hate even their own countrymen with unbridled hatred, far worse than contempt.
That’s the usually untold strength of democracy. Yes, it’s flawed and derided, but too often overlooked in the global power stakes.
Similarly with the covert “deep state” which, whilst highly sinister from one angle, also keeps things ticking over from another.
We hear much about the demise of democracy in terms of accountability to electorates, but there are very good reasons why authoritarian states seek to undermine us – they sense that hidden strength whilst maintaining their own through coercion. Luttwak’s article is therefore a timely and useful corrective to the “we’re doomed” brigade.
What planet do you live on? America power is a shell-game, only benefiting a tiny sliver of elites at the very top. I personally have a front row seat to the decay–in part of my job I work closely with homeless veterans in our excursions of “power” who have given up on life because they were asked to go and get TBIs and lose half their leg in a foreign country FOR this same tiny sliver of elites. Only the elites benefit from *American Power* these days, perhaps it has always been thus.
But sure as sh*t–if Biden and his neocon henchmen finally gets their wish of Article 5 being triggered, with our men and women dying on the vaunted Eastern European killing fields, there will be no picket fences to come back to. They will be returning to and probably living in the disease infested, drug addled tents ringing our city streets where so many veterans of “American Power” adventures reside.
That “tiny sliver” encompasses the entire middle class and most of the working class, as well as the elites, all of whom benefit to greater or lesser extents. Do you really think American GDP per capita is at the top of the list only because of the 0.1%. How is life on Planet Zog?
You don’t even live in the U.S. do you?
You don’t even live in the U.S. do you?
American Exceptionalism – it’s hard to believe that journalists still cling to this faded and corrupt ideal.
Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Yemen, Libya, Cambodia etc.etc.etc. – have they learned nothing?
S Smith, first I commend and thank you for your work with our damaged, homeless veterans – a very sad situation. But having served with the 4th Infantry Division in Viet Nam, I can say that LOTS of people came back from that war and lived healthy and productive lives. Can’t speak myself for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars which you are probably more involved with, but I suspect the same. My point is that your second paragraph is a gross overreach, though I hope our direct involvement never happens.
That “tiny sliver” encompasses the entire middle class and most of the working class, as well as the elites, all of whom benefit to greater or lesser extents. Do you really think American GDP per capita is at the top of the list only because of the 0.1%. How is life on Planet Zog?
American Exceptionalism – it’s hard to believe that journalists still cling to this faded and corrupt ideal.
Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Yemen, Libya, Cambodia etc.etc.etc. – have they learned nothing?
S Smith, first I commend and thank you for your work with our damaged, homeless veterans – a very sad situation. But having served with the 4th Infantry Division in Viet Nam, I can say that LOTS of people came back from that war and lived healthy and productive lives. Can’t speak myself for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars which you are probably more involved with, but I suspect the same. My point is that your second paragraph is a gross overreach, though I hope our direct involvement never happens.
What planet do you live on? America power is a shell-game, only benefiting a tiny sliver of elites at the very top. I personally have a front row seat to the decay–in part of my job I work closely with homeless veterans in our excursions of “power” who have given up on life because they were asked to go and get TBIs and lose half their leg in a foreign country FOR this same tiny sliver of elites. Only the elites benefit from *American Power* these days, perhaps it has always been thus.
But sure as sh*t–if Biden and his neocon henchmen finally gets their wish of Article 5 being triggered, with our men and women dying on the vaunted Eastern European killing fields, there will be no picket fences to come back to. They will be returning to and probably living in the disease infested, drug addled tents ringing our city streets where so many veterans of “American Power” adventures reside.
While I acknowledge America’s insular and self-aggrandizing tendencies, I don’t think many regard an American dope as still cleverer than any foreigner, in a way the a stereotypical antebellum Southerner may have regarded the dumbest and poorest white as still a sliver above any black man. Very few Americans with a high-school diploma or better are that self-impressed.
You assert that in Russia, China, and South Africa: “Leaders have no fear of elections, and hate even their own countrymen with unbridled hatred, far worse than contempt”. This is an intense overstatement, devoid of distinction and degree. Is that hyperbolic shot meant to refer to the current leaders of those nations only? Does that include Mandela and Gorbachev?
There’s a measure of validity in many of your points, but why not dispense with the rhetorical hyperextensions and absolute claims?
That’s the usually untold strength of democracy. Yes, it’s flawed and derided, but too often overlooked in the global power stakes.
Similarly with the covert “deep state” which, whilst highly sinister from one angle, also keeps things ticking over from another.
We hear much about the demise of democracy in terms of accountability to electorates, but there are very good reasons why authoritarian states seek to undermine us – they sense that hidden strength whilst maintaining their own through coercion. Luttwak’s article is therefore a timely and useful corrective to the “we’re doomed” brigade.
While I acknowledge America’s insular and self-aggrandizing tendencies, I don’t think many regard an American dope as still cleverer than any foreigner, in a way the a stereotypical antebellum Southerner may have regarded the dumbest and poorest white as still a sliver above any black man. Very few Americans with a high-school diploma or better are that self-impressed.
You assert that in Russia, China, and South Africa: “Leaders have no fear of elections, and hate even their own countrymen with unbridled hatred, far worse than contempt”. This is an intense overstatement, devoid of distinction and degree. Is that hyperbolic shot meant to refer to the current leaders of those nations only? Does that include Mandela and Gorbachev?
There’s a measure of validity in many of your points, but why not dispense with the rhetorical hyperextensions and absolute claims?
Biden is an empty suit. His sole function is to serve as a power-gathering and channeling entity for other, far more capable people. Also, I have a feeling that although he and his ilk have the utmost of contempt for Donald J. Trump and his ilk, they view him as being a dope, but an American dope, and therefore, far cleverer than anyone else anywhere else, but not quite so clever as us. This tendency perhaps accounts for the odd continuity of American policy even between vastly differing administrations – they have contempt for who came before, but far greater contempt for anyone else, anywhere else. (I use contempt here in the mild and severe forms, depending on case and context.) At times, administrations have contempt for prior policy only because it didn’t go far enough, not for the policy itself. There’s a constant race to outdo the previous administration, and a desperate look at the next election to come, and the ticking clock that never stops. In China, Russia, and South Africa, it is not this way. Leaders have no fear of elections, and hate even their own countrymen with unbridled hatred, far worse than contempt.
But…but…the BRICS are the future!
That’s why Modi is in Moscow, and why South Africa’s energy grid is the wonder of the world. That Vietnam is on the side of the US is simply another BRICS ruse.
Meanwhile, Russia lures the West into a false sense of victory, while it rushes massive forces across its Crimean bridge to Melitopol.
The BRICS are winning on every front!!
More zero sum thinking from Mr Logan who, obtusely and resolutely, fails to imagine a world where, absent a paradigm shift in Western ideology, EVERYONE loses.
Rushes its forces … back to Moscow.
I know, it’s hard to keep up these days Martin.
More zero sum thinking from Mr Logan who, obtusely and resolutely, fails to imagine a world where, absent a paradigm shift in Western ideology, EVERYONE loses.
Rushes its forces … back to Moscow.
I know, it’s hard to keep up these days Martin.
But…but…the BRICS are the future!
That’s why Modi is in Moscow, and why South Africa’s energy grid is the wonder of the world. That Vietnam is on the side of the US is simply another BRICS ruse.
Meanwhile, Russia lures the West into a false sense of victory, while it rushes massive forces across its Crimean bridge to Melitopol.
The BRICS are winning on every front!!
America’s zenith was probably 2009-2012 after a couple of decades of flexing its international muscles post the fall of the USSR. Russia had been helping NATO with Afghan operations and had picked up a couple of prestigious sports tournaments as a result. China was a favoured trading partner with large-scale inward investments and off-shoring coming from the US and Europe.
The decline started sometime around the point that Europe allowed NATO to bomb Libya under American encouragement, as one of the Arab Spring initiatives to mobilise civil society groups for regime change. That, combined with claimed US attempts to interfere in the Russian 2012 elections, seemed to make both Russia and China much more wary about American ambitions with both countries making a turn against American hegemony. Russia with the invasion of Crimea post the American-backed Maidan revolution in Ukraine, and more subtly in China with the opening of the Belt and Road initiative (2013).
America’s pre-eminence may still hold, but it is facing international rivals who are openly challenging it and, by the looks of it, preparing for potential physical engagements (beyond Ukraine), while America is also facing economic and social clouds and a diminishing internal trust in American institutions and the American way. I have a nervousness that we might be in another Weimar/Louis XVI-stage of history, with the need to be alert to where this might go.
I feel like we’re in a three-way duel, with everyone pointing guns at their own feet. Let’s see who blows their big toe off first. It’s tragicomic how my country [the US] and Russia and China create so many avoidable tensions, when the alternative of minding one’s own business for the sake of frictionless trade is such an obviously simpler course of action. Is this what historians mean by a world sleepwalking into war? Because there seems to be a glaring absence of sensible leadership in the most powerful nations. Or perhaps this state of affairs is commonplace, brought about by the hubris of easy times, and by a failure to appreciate international harmony while we are enjoying it.
Well said!
I feel like we’re in a three-way duel, with everyone pointing guns at their own feet. Let’s see who blows their big toe off first. It’s tragicomic how my country [the US] and Russia and China create so many avoidable tensions, when the alternative of minding one’s own business for the sake of frictionless trade is such an obviously simpler course of action. Is this what historians mean by a world sleepwalking into war? Because there seems to be a glaring absence of sensible leadership in the most powerful nations. Or perhaps this state of affairs is commonplace, brought about by the hubris of easy times, and by a failure to appreciate international harmony while we are enjoying it.
Well said!
America’s zenith was probably 2009-2012 after a couple of decades of flexing its international muscles post the fall of the USSR. Russia had been helping NATO with Afghan operations and had picked up a couple of prestigious sports tournaments as a result. China was a favoured trading partner with large-scale inward investments and off-shoring coming from the US and Europe.
The decline started sometime around the point that Europe allowed NATO to bomb Libya under American encouragement, as one of the Arab Spring initiatives to mobilise civil society groups for regime change. That, combined with claimed US attempts to interfere in the Russian 2012 elections, seemed to make both Russia and China much more wary about American ambitions with both countries making a turn against American hegemony. Russia with the invasion of Crimea post the American-backed Maidan revolution in Ukraine, and more subtly in China with the opening of the Belt and Road initiative (2013).
America’s pre-eminence may still hold, but it is facing international rivals who are openly challenging it and, by the looks of it, preparing for potential physical engagements (beyond Ukraine), while America is also facing economic and social clouds and a diminishing internal trust in American institutions and the American way. I have a nervousness that we might be in another Weimar/Louis XVI-stage of history, with the need to be alert to where this might go.
Too much doom and gloom about American decline, or too much hope in revived American power says more about those who commit to those two outcomes than it does about the reality of the situation. It’s also a prison of two ideas that fails to recognize that both premises could be wrong. I think there is a potential third view, which is the fact that, if the US is in decline, that does not spell doom and gloom. It might if in desiring to cling to power by any means wins the day, and evil means become the institutional norm.
If we look at the US as a business, we could say that those fail all the time. Businesses through some sort of event often fail and go bankrupt. It doesn’t mean that the building they are in falls apart, or whatever tools, machines, or technology that the business worked though in order to offer its produce to the world all goes away.
What happens in that case is someone who thinks they know why it failed, and how they can do that business better comes along, buys the building and material aspects of the failed business and gives it another go with different ideas and principles in place.
This is really a good thing. The worst thing for that business would be if somehow insiders or even worse some malevolent outsiders were to somehow by hook and crook, trickery and deception were to take over the business for their own gain. Making life for the employees terrible, setting fire to any of their competitors, and threatening anyone who might not support their supremacy or become a competitor. That would indeed be something ripe for judgement and condemnation.
However, even in that case, the former idea that someone is always there to pickup the pieces of the failed business and try to do it better the next time always remains. So rather than “this is the end”, “this is a time of renewed opportunity” is the case for the failure of the prior model. Which, is far from a gloom and doom idea.
Agree in theory about the false dichotomy, and the notion of nations as sort of businesses. One key difference, however, is that when businesses fail, if they are not immediately taken over by better management, they are taken apart and components redistributed. The building might become vacant for awhile. What does this look like when it happens to an entire nation?
Look at Russia in 1990.
more specifically the entire CEE region since the CCCP collapse. But we could say Greece since 2010, Argentina since 1998, Sri Lanka since 1965 or any other “developing” country which was lucky enough to be rescued by the IMF/WB by commencing a never-ending “development” and “poverty reduction” programme that somehow always magically stuck in a forever phase of “temporary” increases in starving to death, submerging in violence and escaping to suicide.
more specifically the entire CEE region since the CCCP collapse. But we could say Greece since 2010, Argentina since 1998, Sri Lanka since 1965 or any other “developing” country which was lucky enough to be rescued by the IMF/WB by commencing a never-ending “development” and “poverty reduction” programme that somehow always magically stuck in a forever phase of “temporary” increases in starving to death, submerging in violence and escaping to suicide.
Look at Russia in 1990.
America is in STEEP decline, my friend. American power is for the elites, by the elites–damned the rest of us. We are in a neo-feudal state here.
The whole “Ukraine defense” operation is being run by a bunch of American and Atlanticist defense industry lackeys, Iraq War hangers-ons, and neocon sycophants, half a continent away, who completely and willfully misunderstand what is at stake and the entirety of the geopolitical essence of the Ukraine/Russian nexus. NATO, directed by these people on an entirely different continent, is an anachronism, with all the resultant folly that will be another forever war. Is it a life or death struggle for democracy? Hmm . . . strange that the U.S. and our Undead President should say so as the U.S. is almost certainly only a democracy in name anymore, and I’m not talking election fraud here.
Neither political party represents the interests of the citizens they are supposed to represent, and the “progressive caucus” is perhaps the most laughable joke of all in my country at this point. We are *run* by corrupt and pedophilic billionaire technologists like Bill Gates. The progressive left goes about mouthing at least some semblance of care for the working class and poor, but they went all in on lockdowns, school shut-downs and the latest forever war, which all in there way completely destroyed the working and middle class in this country, especially with the proxy-war caused inflation, which is just a tax on the poor and lower middle-class.
Too much Kool-aid is bad for digestion.
Yes, and you need to stop smoking Angel Dust.
Yes, and you need to stop smoking Angel Dust.
Delusional nonsense.
The neo-feudal state is Russia. Not the US. It’s Russia that’s run like some early mediaeval country with a belief system the West left behind hundreds of years ago.
The US will be just fine.
Get a grip !
Hmm, another bloodthirsty Brit who doesn’t have a clue what he’s talking about, I suppose? Who’s relied on the U.S. blood and treasure for decades for security, without doing so much is to put in 10% of those security costs?
Have even been to America recently? San Francisco? LA? Portland? You are in for quite a shock. They look like 3rd world cities and are a disgrace; neglected American citizens, many of them veterans, in tent cities stretching as far as the eye can see–without healthcare, hope . . . And yet our “progressive caucus,” who are now apparently the water-carriers for the neocons, turn a blind eye in a warmongering fever, threatening to cancel the latest book by one of our greatest authors set in Russia.
We are a broken, sad country. But keep smoking the globalist crack, man. It won’t last much longer. . . .
It sounds like you have nothing but contempt for America. And all you do is rant like you only have things to shout but nothing to discuss, let alone learn. What a broken, sad act.
I agree that progressives as a whole are worsening things in America. But they are far from solely responsibility for all the blight and gross inequality. Hardcore corporate free-marketeers do much of the damage, and create a lot of unnecessary poverty and pollution too, with outsourcing and no sense of respect for the air, water, and soil (at the worst extreme). Both polar wings, right and left, are taking up way to much of our air as a nation.
Although I think you came to these comment boards more to shout and celebrate how right you are, I do agree with what you posted elsewhere, about the needless extremism on both sides here in America, with the interests of most non-elites lost in the shuffle.
If you’re gonna blame individuals for the actions of their government, I guess by that logic we’re both personally on the hook for a certain amount of bloodthirst, or at least willingness to see people die in places like Iraq and Afghanistan. Or maybe you’re totally exonerated when you denounce what’s done on our supposed, collective behalf.
And I was not in support of long-term deployment to Iraq or Afghanistan. I’m not rah -rah about Ukraine either. But letting any nation annex a European country tends to have snowballing consequences that can reach American shores. It might not feel like European sovereignty matters to our national and cultural wellbeing more than an equivalent situation in Asia or on Mars, but it flat out does.
Fortunately the US at large is not those destroyed cities. Logically, those cities will fail as the tax base leaves. The residual destitute and those “elites” remain each in their isolation from each other. Many in the middle will suffer being left behind and from them there is always hope. That national divorce is underway and wise politicians may try to reform, again hope.
Still a lot of houses in Detroit falling apart but able to be restored with work and a bit of cash. We can hope our leaders decide business can help by finding work for people. Always with hope.
Nicely put. Also, if Detroit itself is not altogether destroyed, a world city like San Francisco can also rebound. Portland seems iffier, but not hopeless. To paraphrase Dante: Abandon not all hope, ye who dwell here!
Nicely put. Also, if Detroit itself is not altogether destroyed, a world city like San Francisco can also rebound. Portland seems iffier, but not hopeless. To paraphrase Dante: Abandon not all hope, ye who dwell here!
It sounds like you have nothing but contempt for America. And all you do is rant like you only have things to shout but nothing to discuss, let alone learn. What a broken, sad act.
I agree that progressives as a whole are worsening things in America. But they are far from solely responsibility for all the blight and gross inequality. Hardcore corporate free-marketeers do much of the damage, and create a lot of unnecessary poverty and pollution too, with outsourcing and no sense of respect for the air, water, and soil (at the worst extreme). Both polar wings, right and left, are taking up way to much of our air as a nation.
Although I think you came to these comment boards more to shout and celebrate how right you are, I do agree with what you posted elsewhere, about the needless extremism on both sides here in America, with the interests of most non-elites lost in the shuffle.
If you’re gonna blame individuals for the actions of their government, I guess by that logic we’re both personally on the hook for a certain amount of bloodthirst, or at least willingness to see people die in places like Iraq and Afghanistan. Or maybe you’re totally exonerated when you denounce what’s done on our supposed, collective behalf.
And I was not in support of long-term deployment to Iraq or Afghanistan. I’m not rah -rah about Ukraine either. But letting any nation annex a European country tends to have snowballing consequences that can reach American shores. It might not feel like European sovereignty matters to our national and cultural wellbeing more than an equivalent situation in Asia or on Mars, but it flat out does.
Fortunately the US at large is not those destroyed cities. Logically, those cities will fail as the tax base leaves. The residual destitute and those “elites” remain each in their isolation from each other. Many in the middle will suffer being left behind and from them there is always hope. That national divorce is underway and wise politicians may try to reform, again hope.
Still a lot of houses in Detroit falling apart but able to be restored with work and a bit of cash. We can hope our leaders decide business can help by finding work for people. Always with hope.
Hmm, another bloodthirsty Brit who doesn’t have a clue what he’s talking about, I suppose? Who’s relied on the U.S. blood and treasure for decades for security, without doing so much is to put in 10% of those security costs?
Have even been to America recently? San Francisco? LA? Portland? You are in for quite a shock. They look like 3rd world cities and are a disgrace; neglected American citizens, many of them veterans, in tent cities stretching as far as the eye can see–without healthcare, hope . . . And yet our “progressive caucus,” who are now apparently the water-carriers for the neocons, turn a blind eye in a warmongering fever, threatening to cancel the latest book by one of our greatest authors set in Russia.
We are a broken, sad country. But keep smoking the globalist crack, man. It won’t last much longer. . . .
Too much Kool-aid is bad for digestion.
Delusional nonsense.
The neo-feudal state is Russia. Not the US. It’s Russia that’s run like some early mediaeval country with a belief system the West left behind hundreds of years ago.
The US will be just fine.
Get a grip !
for the sake of this totally naive analogue in which world politics evolve in a laissez-faire kind of free market where “different ideas and principles” refreshingly compete & the best one takes over the noble belt according to the Marquess of Queensberry Rules – …would you please remind me which possibly failing and bankrupting business can manage NOT to account for 61% of its $3.5 trillion in assets sixth time in a row and, more importantly, still have 5-6000 nukes to greet the liquidator?
Agree in theory about the false dichotomy, and the notion of nations as sort of businesses. One key difference, however, is that when businesses fail, if they are not immediately taken over by better management, they are taken apart and components redistributed. The building might become vacant for awhile. What does this look like when it happens to an entire nation?
America is in STEEP decline, my friend. American power is for the elites, by the elites–damned the rest of us. We are in a neo-feudal state here.
The whole “Ukraine defense” operation is being run by a bunch of American and Atlanticist defense industry lackeys, Iraq War hangers-ons, and neocon sycophants, half a continent away, who completely and willfully misunderstand what is at stake and the entirety of the geopolitical essence of the Ukraine/Russian nexus. NATO, directed by these people on an entirely different continent, is an anachronism, with all the resultant folly that will be another forever war. Is it a life or death struggle for democracy? Hmm . . . strange that the U.S. and our Undead President should say so as the U.S. is almost certainly only a democracy in name anymore, and I’m not talking election fraud here.
Neither political party represents the interests of the citizens they are supposed to represent, and the “progressive caucus” is perhaps the most laughable joke of all in my country at this point. We are *run* by corrupt and pedophilic billionaire technologists like Bill Gates. The progressive left goes about mouthing at least some semblance of care for the working class and poor, but they went all in on lockdowns, school shut-downs and the latest forever war, which all in there way completely destroyed the working and middle class in this country, especially with the proxy-war caused inflation, which is just a tax on the poor and lower middle-class.
for the sake of this totally naive analogue in which world politics evolve in a laissez-faire kind of free market where “different ideas and principles” refreshingly compete & the best one takes over the noble belt according to the Marquess of Queensberry Rules – …would you please remind me which possibly failing and bankrupting business can manage NOT to account for 61% of its $3.5 trillion in assets sixth time in a row and, more importantly, still have 5-6000 nukes to greet the liquidator?
Too much doom and gloom about American decline, or too much hope in revived American power says more about those who commit to those two outcomes than it does about the reality of the situation. It’s also a prison of two ideas that fails to recognize that both premises could be wrong. I think there is a potential third view, which is the fact that, if the US is in decline, that does not spell doom and gloom. It might if in desiring to cling to power by any means wins the day, and evil means become the institutional norm.
If we look at the US as a business, we could say that those fail all the time. Businesses through some sort of event often fail and go bankrupt. It doesn’t mean that the building they are in falls apart, or whatever tools, machines, or technology that the business worked though in order to offer its produce to the world all goes away.
What happens in that case is someone who thinks they know why it failed, and how they can do that business better comes along, buys the building and material aspects of the failed business and gives it another go with different ideas and principles in place.
This is really a good thing. The worst thing for that business would be if somehow insiders or even worse some malevolent outsiders were to somehow by hook and crook, trickery and deception were to take over the business for their own gain. Making life for the employees terrible, setting fire to any of their competitors, and threatening anyone who might not support their supremacy or become a competitor. That would indeed be something ripe for judgement and condemnation.
However, even in that case, the former idea that someone is always there to pickup the pieces of the failed business and try to do it better the next time always remains. So rather than “this is the end”, “this is a time of renewed opportunity” is the case for the failure of the prior model. Which, is far from a gloom and doom idea.
We’re resurrected, really? *looks around* Great!
We’re resurrected, really? *looks around* Great!
Most sensible people in the world know, at heart, bad as Uncle Sam is, Putin or Xi is much worse. When they feel threatened by the latter, they run to Uncle Sam for protection.
Most sensible people in the world know, at heart, bad as Uncle Sam is, Putin or Xi is much worse. When they feel threatened by the latter, they run to Uncle Sam for protection.
“The only possible explanation is that China’s rulers are too absorbed in invisible but constant intra-party intrigues and too distracted by everyday matters to acquire any serious understanding of the outside world.”
Naturally, the CCP is constantly busy managing the economy, agricultural production, and rural development projects. These are all too important to be left to free markets! If people were allowed to interact unsupervised, it could result in disaster.
Which makes me a bit puzzled about the constant rumors that China is in the lead with artificial intelligence. How could such a micromanaging govt ever risk the development of a technology that might undermine its power? And how could they allow private companies, and millions of users, to train their systems on the uncensored data of the entire world? One can easily imagine what sorts of questions Chinese citizens might wish to ask the AI.
Interesting point which is why the current AI, large language models, may not gain traction in China. We might suspect their efforts to be military oriented trying to capture western innovation for war fighting. Innovation is culturally difficult for the Chinese so AI supplementation may be a way around that difficulty. Still, networked scale for war may be very hard to do for offensive. Numbers matter of course but do require a lot of excess funding. And as the Russians are discovering maintenance of stuff also take a lot of money or it doesn’t work properly.
Interesting point which is why the current AI, large language models, may not gain traction in China. We might suspect their efforts to be military oriented trying to capture western innovation for war fighting. Innovation is culturally difficult for the Chinese so AI supplementation may be a way around that difficulty. Still, networked scale for war may be very hard to do for offensive. Numbers matter of course but do require a lot of excess funding. And as the Russians are discovering maintenance of stuff also take a lot of money or it doesn’t work properly.
“The only possible explanation is that China’s rulers are too absorbed in invisible but constant intra-party intrigues and too distracted by everyday matters to acquire any serious understanding of the outside world.”
Naturally, the CCP is constantly busy managing the economy, agricultural production, and rural development projects. These are all too important to be left to free markets! If people were allowed to interact unsupervised, it could result in disaster.
Which makes me a bit puzzled about the constant rumors that China is in the lead with artificial intelligence. How could such a micromanaging govt ever risk the development of a technology that might undermine its power? And how could they allow private companies, and millions of users, to train their systems on the uncensored data of the entire world? One can easily imagine what sorts of questions Chinese citizens might wish to ask the AI.
It’s an absolute iron law of history – anywhere, any time – that democracies always appear to be in more trouble than they really are and dictatorships always appear to be in less trouble than they really are. Think Berlin Wall 1989 and how fast that unravelled. Or ask Ceaucescu how well he thought things were going from that balcony in Bucharest in 1991. Also, leadership is about being clear what your values are and persuading – not ordering -others to follow. Professor Luttwak is 100% correct and our media need to go and read a history book or two and think about the longer term……
It’s an absolute iron law of history – anywhere, any time – that democracies always appear to be in more trouble than they really are and dictatorships always appear to be in less trouble than they really are. Think Berlin Wall 1989 and how fast that unravelled. Or ask Ceaucescu how well he thought things were going from that balcony in Bucharest in 1991. Also, leadership is about being clear what your values are and persuading – not ordering -others to follow. Professor Luttwak is 100% correct and our media need to go and read a history book or two and think about the longer term……
A succinct and accurate summation of the present map of geopolitical power. Two vainglorious and misguided autocrats have handed the USA foreign policy victories that they could never have won otherwise. They have also impacted domestic politics. China, in particular, is the one issue just about everybody agrees on. One of the most common tropes last midterm was for one candidate to accuse the other of being soft on China, or having past business dealings with China, and so on. Russia, on the other hand, is universally loathed. The ‘opposition’ to the Ukraine war amounts to a handful of libertarian and isolationist types objecting to how much money is being spent on the war and/or wanting a stronger push for negotiations to end the bloodshed. As much as Americans fight over internal issues, they tend to rally against external threats without much prompting from leadership. It’s one of the reasons the US excels at open warfare.
My dear sir, my country is rotting before my eyes and is a disgrace. There is much opposition toward further involvement in Ukraine–if it turns into all out war that the neocons and our Undead President want, the U.S. will find its death-knell. The elites have raped our country of its treasure and one-time greatness through the endless wars and the American left is but a shadow of itself and warmongering to boot.
That last was exactly my point also – Americans, left and right, hold contempt for each other, thinking the other side fools and churls, but still esteem each other as Americans.
Again, an element of truth, with over 100 million Americans out of 330 million to falsify your overstatement, Yet your hyperbole is a little too close the truth for comfort here, except in this: esteem (beyond mere tolerance) for one’s fellow Americans of different backgrounds and opinions may be at an all-time, overall low here in the States.
Again, an element of truth, with over 100 million Americans out of 330 million to falsify your overstatement, Yet your hyperbole is a little too close the truth for comfort here, except in this: esteem (beyond mere tolerance) for one’s fellow Americans of different backgrounds and opinions may be at an all-time, overall low here in the States.
My dear sir, my country is rotting before my eyes and is a disgrace. There is much opposition toward further involvement in Ukraine–if it turns into all out war that the neocons and our Undead President want, the U.S. will find its death-knell. The elites have raped our country of its treasure and one-time greatness through the endless wars and the American left is but a shadow of itself and warmongering to boot.
That last was exactly my point also – Americans, left and right, hold contempt for each other, thinking the other side fools and churls, but still esteem each other as Americans.
A succinct and accurate summation of the present map of geopolitical power. Two vainglorious and misguided autocrats have handed the USA foreign policy victories that they could never have won otherwise. They have also impacted domestic politics. China, in particular, is the one issue just about everybody agrees on. One of the most common tropes last midterm was for one candidate to accuse the other of being soft on China, or having past business dealings with China, and so on. Russia, on the other hand, is universally loathed. The ‘opposition’ to the Ukraine war amounts to a handful of libertarian and isolationist types objecting to how much money is being spent on the war and/or wanting a stronger push for negotiations to end the bloodshed. As much as Americans fight over internal issues, they tend to rally against external threats without much prompting from leadership. It’s one of the reasons the US excels at open warfare.
The real flaw in non-western nations like China and Russia is that they can only function as autocracies. Citizens tolerate the autocrat because they fear their fellow citizens more.
Now we see how Putin’s brand of autocracy is collapsing before our eyes. All it takes is one problem that the autocrat cannot or will not solve, and the whole edifice goes down–along with a considerable part of the population.
Xi is already making mistakes that would be identified and addressed in any western nation. But everyone in his leadership will remain silent until it is too late. Indeed, look how the One Child Policy and the COVID lockdown persisted long after they made no sense.
But because neither nation dares to open up its politics and govt to the critics, regimes and dynasties will collapse as they always have in the past.
Each time taking a few million citizens with them.
The real flaw in non-western nations like China and Russia is that they can only function as autocracies. Citizens tolerate the autocrat because they fear their fellow citizens more.
Now we see how Putin’s brand of autocracy is collapsing before our eyes. All it takes is one problem that the autocrat cannot or will not solve, and the whole edifice goes down–along with a considerable part of the population.
Xi is already making mistakes that would be identified and addressed in any western nation. But everyone in his leadership will remain silent until it is too late. Indeed, look how the One Child Policy and the COVID lockdown persisted long after they made no sense.
But because neither nation dares to open up its politics and govt to the critics, regimes and dynasties will collapse as they always have in the past.
Each time taking a few million citizens with them.
A pretty good article; although I disagree with one point. Even if Ukraine rolled over quicker than a Russian hooker, NATO would have had a resurgence, possibly even more powerfuy than it did.
A pretty good article; although I disagree with one point. Even if Ukraine rolled over quicker than a Russian hooker, NATO would have had a resurgence, possibly even more powerfuy than it did.
I wonder if Thomas Fazi agrees?
I’m betting not.
Frankly, who cares ?
I’m betting not.
Frankly, who cares ?
I wonder if Thomas Fazi agrees?
Writes article about resurgence of American power. Proves it by example after example of other countries stepping up, largely without American “leadership.“ Points out the decay and disarray in USA domestically. Points out the weakness of at least two American presidents.
i am sorry. If this is what you think resurgence looks like, I would hate to see what you consider the necessary ingredients for the demise of a civilization.
Yes, this article of bollocks. America is in shambles–the elites are the only ones benefiting from said “power.”
Yes, this article of bollocks. America is in shambles–the elites are the only ones benefiting from said “power.”
Writes article about resurgence of American power. Proves it by example after example of other countries stepping up, largely without American “leadership.“ Points out the decay and disarray in USA domestically. Points out the weakness of at least two American presidents.
i am sorry. If this is what you think resurgence looks like, I would hate to see what you consider the necessary ingredients for the demise of a civilization.
yes, the usa are the mighty one eyed king of wokistan.
yes, the usa are the mighty one eyed king of wokistan.
What this essay confirms is that geopolitical strategists have no interest in the quality of the daily social and economic life of real people. It’s all about aggregate power, which means nothing.
What this essay confirms is that geopolitical strategists have no interest in the quality of the daily social and economic life of real people. It’s all about aggregate power, which means nothing.
Good article, high time we counted our plusses and saw how far they overshadow the others.
Good article, high time we counted our plusses and saw how far they overshadow the others.
What a load of bollocks.
The American empire and it’s corrupt, elite, Atlanticist power base is in steep decline–one only sees our shameful exit from Afghanistan and add into that another forever war on the backs of American taxpayers in Ukraine which, by design, has no end in sight and will bleed our country’s treasury further dry.
Have you seen our cities? Our once great cities are ringed with thousands of tents of defeated and drug addicted people, many of them filled with veterans of all our recent disastrous displays of “power.” My country is also currently rendered apart by political extremism on the left and right, almost unbelievably the left has become a warmongering edifice that is but a shell of its old, civil libertarian self.
The American “empire” is a hollowed out and destroyed middle-class, and poor who can’t afford housing and are in said tents on city streets. American empire and power only works by and for the elites–the pedophilic billionaire class like Bill Gates and our Undead President, who launders money in Ukraine by the bucketfuls. Indeed, it’s the family business.
American power. How I wish to never see that statement again.
Would you prefer Russo-Chinese power? Because you can be quite certain that the American collapse you hastily declare and celebrate won’t result in a benign replacement.
I relate to a portion of your impassioned lament, but I’m convinced it could very well get worse than American global pre-eminence. Our moral authority is indeed shot, but that was already true when our politics were less extreme and polarized, when homelessness and other economically-driven catastrophes were less rampant. We should handle ourselves better overseas, maybe with a touch of uncharacteristic humility, but surrendering the lead role is unthinkable at present.
I might have a different view if I thought a retreat from the world stage would force us to confront our domestic woes in a useful way.
Jesus Christ, man, this isn’t a Zero Sum game. I realize I’m trying to discuss this with a bunch of bloodthirsty Brits who seem to get hard after reading this article, but your lack of understanding of the nuances of international diplomacy are stunning.
Why, again, are we the world’s policemen? All our blood and treasure has gone to waste since, arguably, World War 2, for a false assurance of “security.” Ask the working class in the Rust Belt about “security” or the black Americans in the inner city. For Gods sake, we don’t even have universal healthcare in this country, but we can still send over 100 billion to the unbelievably corrupt country of Ukraine, for a fight that we have no stake in.
Also, when is the UK going to man-up and find a way to create security without relying on the blood and treasure of your former colony half the world away? It’s pretty shameful if you ask me.
You are so intemperate, man. Why can’t you moderate your tone, my good chap? Nah, say what you want of course, believing every thought you have as if all your opinions are truth itself, dude.
By the way, I’m an American who sometimes sounds like a Brit, because I talks pretty good and, I admit, can be pretentious or whatnot.
I’m worried about our country too, holmes. I just don’t share your level of disgust and seeming near hopelessness. Asking a whole nation to “man up” is an hilariously stereotypical thing for an American to type though.
And of course it’s not a zero-sum game. So ease up on the all-or-nothing rhetoric. Later pal.
(But I hope you have a good weekend, if that’s possible).
Sorry, pal, as the Uncle of two military aged young men and father of two girls aged 17 and 13, you warmongerers, the whole lot of you, deserve nothing but contempt and derision, celebrating “America” and its military prowess (what a joke, by the way) while the whole country rots and burns. Pox on all of you.
I thought that was the type of meanspirited, self-righteous nonsense you were pretty much all about, but I gave you an opportunity to show something, anything different.
I am not a warmonger. For someone who throws that word around, you don’t sound like any kind of a pacifist, but like an angry, war-like personality, maybe fueled by booze–not crack or angel dust though–at least in this version of you. Check your mirror.
You’re raising the heat on American extremism right now. I hope you’re not among those who are ready to start another actual civil war to prove how much they love/hate America. Doubt your daughters would admire this act of yours.
You are a joke, pal.
You aren’t a warmonger and yet it sounded like you supported the invasion of Iraq, Afghanistan and now our money laundering Biden Crime Syndicate’s Ukraine Adventure? What lala land do you live on? It’s all so transparent; the whole goddamm thing is a racket, that the progressive left, a movement I once loosely ascribed to, is ALL IN on. They are holding hands with the neocons and jumping into a fiery hellscape of blown apart bodies, death machines and forever wars that benefit who? The war profiteers and their “thinktanks.”
I have an idea. Why dont you read one of Bacevichs books? Better yet, visit a think tank that really matters, The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. You obviously also have no concept of history: and are too stupid to realize that this isn’t Sudatenland 2.0. These sources may help your little brain.
Oh and I’m not MAGA. That’s also an insult. I’m a redpilled former progressive who can see exactly what our war machine is about.
Have a fun warmongering weekend.
I seem to have insulted you somehow. How rude of me. It “sounded like” I supported those campaigns why? Don’t trust every voice in your head. Please stop believing every thing you think in that seeing-red head of yours. Read the Gospels, with a focus on the non-supernatural content, or listen to some good music.
Demonizing and ridiculing everything you disagree with is what…the height of wisdom?
Have a fun series of isolationist tantrums. Or snap out of it. Your choice.
What a painful irony that you mention the non-supernatural content of the Gospels. The whole impetus behind the 20th century’s great non-violent movements were inspired by Tolstoy’s The Kingdom of God is Within You. Of course you are too stupid to know this.
Of course, he’s Russian, so he should be censored and despised, right?
Our founding fathers are spinning in their graves knowing that your type of American exists, all-in on war and “liberal interventionism” whilst our country devolves into mayhem. The part about “foreign entanglements?” Remember that part? Of course you don’t.
The chickens are coming to roost, my friend, the whole rotten edifice that is our forever wars has bled America dry. Build your walls and get your private security!
Although, considering where we are headed, it won’t protect you when your face starts melting off due to the atomic sheen.
I am aware of the late work of Tolstoy you mention, which stupidly assume I have not read (I have, 30 years ago, and in part only–it is unevenly interesting to me).
In my recollection–and I have also seen comments on it by later writers–Tolstoy’s theological musings are largely abstract and otherworldly, more a defense of transcendent Christian faith than a call to action in this world. Perhaps I’m wrong though: Have you read it more recently or carefully than I have? It has beautiful and moving passages, for sure.
But it’s absurd to credit that single work with all the nonviolent movements of the previous century. No mention of Gandhi or MLK? In my far from unique (and perhaps ethnocentrically Western) view, the Gospels themselves remain the most vibrant single–or quadruple–source of a compassionate, nonviolent ethos. But there is an ancient tradition of ahimsa, or non-harm in several Eastern traditions too, including Hinduism and Buddhism.
You are a head-on-fire doomsayer of extreme, irrational proportions–at least right now. I could stand to be far more humble and kind, and so could you.
If you insist on it, good luck prepping for an apocalypse that you sound at once panicked and eager to see come.
“De Vogue and others, who, professing the doctrine of evolution, regard war as not only inevitable, but beneficial and therefore desirable–they are terrible, hideous, in their moral perversion. The others, at least, say that they hate evil, and love good, but these openly declare that good and evil do not exist. All discussion of the possibility of re-establishing peace instead of everlasting war–is the pernicious sentimentality of phrasemongers. There is a law of evolution by which it follows that I must live and act in an evil way; what is to be done? I am an educated man, I know the law of evolution, and therefore I will act in an evil way. “ENTRONS AU PALAIS DE LA GUERRE.” There is the law of evolution, and therefore there is neither good nor evil, and one must live for the sake of one’s personal existence, leaving the rest to the action of the law of evolution. This is the last word of refined culture, and with it, of that overshadowing of conscience which has come upon the educated classes of our times. The desire of the educated classes to support the ideas they prefer, and the order of existence based on them, has attained its furthest limits. They lie, and delude themselves, and one another, with the subtlest forms of deception, simply to obscure, to deaden conscience.
Instead of transforming their life into harmony with their conscience, they try by every means to stifle its voice. But it is in darkness that the light begins to shine, and so the light is rising upon our epoch.”
Interesting reflections. Tolstoy was indeed an educated, and brilliant man.
“Instead of transforming their life into harmony with their conscience, they try by every means to stifle its voice”. A broad stroke with a truthful brush.
I still don’t see how moral diagnosis and insight of this kind leads directly to, or deserves credit for, nonviolent movements on a general or large scale. While influential, this Tolstoy work is far less widely read than his short stories and famous long novels.
Even so, I find the passage worthwhile and thought provoking and thanks for sharing it, no sarcasm intended. The kingdom of Heaven, and the pits of Hell, are indeed within us.
Above from The Gulag Archipelago by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn (as you likely know). I’ve only read a small portion of it so far, but I intend to read more.
(I know a bit about a lot of books, and a lot about quite a few. I’d like to be a better student and scholar than I am, but now that my eyesight is diminished in my early 50s, I find it harder to go right though a very long or difficult book. Maybe audiobooks can “save me”?).
If you’ve not read it yet I think you might find William Blake’s The Marriage of Heaven and Hell to be worthwhile, powerful even, weird as it in in some ways.
“Everywhere the same story is repeated. Not only the government, but the great majority of liberal, advanced people, as they are called, studiously turn away from everything that has been said, written, or done, or is being done by men to prove the incompatibility of force in its most awful, gross, and glaring form–in the form, that is, of an army of soldiers prepared to murder anyone, whoever it may be–with the teachings of Christianity, or even of the humanity which society professes as its creed.”
1,000 more narrowing-column posts or so and you can share the entire text (I remember the book as being comparatively short– tempted to Google, but will resist). Tolstoy’s tone is kind of ranting or angry-prophetic, very absolute; perhaps that why you esteem it so highly?
Nah though, I’ll probably give this book another look thanks to your “digital intervention”. Gonna move on to the next board now so the last word is yours–or Leo’s–if you want.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/31/magazine/world-war-i-veterans-treatment.html
You should read some of the comments on this article, pal. You may have second thoughts about us being involved in another senseless, prolonged forever war. Americans are sick of them.
C’mon man! I hate war too. I don’t know why you insist on thinking I’m an apologist for any needless, let alone “forever” war.
C’mon man! I hate war too. I don’t know why you insist on thinking I’m an apologist for any needless, let alone “forever” war.
You should read some of the comments on this article, pal. You may have second thoughts about us being involved in another senseless, prolonged forever war. Americans are sick of them.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/31/magazine/world-war-i-veterans-treatment.html
1,000 more narrowing-column posts or so and you can share the entire text (I remember the book as being comparatively short– tempted to Google, but will resist). Tolstoy’s tone is kind of ranting or angry-prophetic, very absolute; perhaps that why you esteem it so highly?
Nah though, I’ll probably give this book another look thanks to your “digital intervention”. Gonna move on to the next board now so the last word is yours–or Leo’s–if you want.
“Everywhere the same story is repeated. Not only the government, but the great majority of liberal, advanced people, as they are called, studiously turn away from everything that has been said, written, or done, or is being done by men to prove the incompatibility of force in its most awful, gross, and glaring form–in the form, that is, of an army of soldiers prepared to murder anyone, whoever it may be–with the teachings of Christianity, or even of the humanity which society professes as its creed.”
Interesting reflections. Tolstoy was indeed an educated, and brilliant man.
“Instead of transforming their life into harmony with their conscience, they try by every means to stifle its voice”. A broad stroke with a truthful brush.
I still don’t see how moral diagnosis and insight of this kind leads directly to, or deserves credit for, nonviolent movements on a general or large scale. While influential, this Tolstoy work is far less widely read than his short stories and famous long novels.
Even so, I find the passage worthwhile and thought provoking and thanks for sharing it, no sarcasm intended. The kingdom of Heaven, and the pits of Hell, are indeed within us.
Above from The Gulag Archipelago by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn (as you likely know). I’ve only read a small portion of it so far, but I intend to read more.
(I know a bit about a lot of books, and a lot about quite a few. I’d like to be a better student and scholar than I am, but now that my eyesight is diminished in my early 50s, I find it harder to go right though a very long or difficult book. Maybe audiobooks can “save me”?).
If you’ve not read it yet I think you might find William Blake’s The Marriage of Heaven and Hell to be worthwhile, powerful even, weird as it in in some ways.
“De Vogue and others, who, professing the doctrine of evolution, regard war as not only inevitable, but beneficial and therefore desirable–they are terrible, hideous, in their moral perversion. The others, at least, say that they hate evil, and love good, but these openly declare that good and evil do not exist. All discussion of the possibility of re-establishing peace instead of everlasting war–is the pernicious sentimentality of phrasemongers. There is a law of evolution by which it follows that I must live and act in an evil way; what is to be done? I am an educated man, I know the law of evolution, and therefore I will act in an evil way. “ENTRONS AU PALAIS DE LA GUERRE.” There is the law of evolution, and therefore there is neither good nor evil, and one must live for the sake of one’s personal existence, leaving the rest to the action of the law of evolution. This is the last word of refined culture, and with it, of that overshadowing of conscience which has come upon the educated classes of our times. The desire of the educated classes to support the ideas they prefer, and the order of existence based on them, has attained its furthest limits. They lie, and delude themselves, and one another, with the subtlest forms of deception, simply to obscure, to deaden conscience.
Instead of transforming their life into harmony with their conscience, they try by every means to stifle its voice. But it is in darkness that the light begins to shine, and so the light is rising upon our epoch.”
I am aware of the late work of Tolstoy you mention, which stupidly assume I have not read (I have, 30 years ago, and in part only–it is unevenly interesting to me).
In my recollection–and I have also seen comments on it by later writers–Tolstoy’s theological musings are largely abstract and otherworldly, more a defense of transcendent Christian faith than a call to action in this world. Perhaps I’m wrong though: Have you read it more recently or carefully than I have? It has beautiful and moving passages, for sure.
But it’s absurd to credit that single work with all the nonviolent movements of the previous century. No mention of Gandhi or MLK? In my far from unique (and perhaps ethnocentrically Western) view, the Gospels themselves remain the most vibrant single–or quadruple–source of a compassionate, nonviolent ethos. But there is an ancient tradition of ahimsa, or non-harm in several Eastern traditions too, including Hinduism and Buddhism.
You are a head-on-fire doomsayer of extreme, irrational proportions–at least right now. I could stand to be far more humble and kind, and so could you.
If you insist on it, good luck prepping for an apocalypse that you sound at once panicked and eager to see come.
What a painful irony that you mention the non-supernatural content of the Gospels. The whole impetus behind the 20th century’s great non-violent movements were inspired by Tolstoy’s The Kingdom of God is Within You. Of course you are too stupid to know this.
Of course, he’s Russian, so he should be censored and despised, right?
Our founding fathers are spinning in their graves knowing that your type of American exists, all-in on war and “liberal interventionism” whilst our country devolves into mayhem. The part about “foreign entanglements?” Remember that part? Of course you don’t.
The chickens are coming to roost, my friend, the whole rotten edifice that is our forever wars has bled America dry. Build your walls and get your private security!
Although, considering where we are headed, it won’t protect you when your face starts melting off due to the atomic sheen.
I seem to have insulted you somehow. How rude of me. It “sounded like” I supported those campaigns why? Don’t trust every voice in your head. Please stop believing every thing you think in that seeing-red head of yours. Read the Gospels, with a focus on the non-supernatural content, or listen to some good music.
Demonizing and ridiculing everything you disagree with is what…the height of wisdom?
Have a fun series of isolationist tantrums. Or snap out of it. Your choice.
You are a joke, pal.
You aren’t a warmonger and yet it sounded like you supported the invasion of Iraq, Afghanistan and now our money laundering Biden Crime Syndicate’s Ukraine Adventure? What lala land do you live on? It’s all so transparent; the whole goddamm thing is a racket, that the progressive left, a movement I once loosely ascribed to, is ALL IN on. They are holding hands with the neocons and jumping into a fiery hellscape of blown apart bodies, death machines and forever wars that benefit who? The war profiteers and their “thinktanks.”
I have an idea. Why dont you read one of Bacevichs books? Better yet, visit a think tank that really matters, The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. You obviously also have no concept of history: and are too stupid to realize that this isn’t Sudatenland 2.0. These sources may help your little brain.
Oh and I’m not MAGA. That’s also an insult. I’m a redpilled former progressive who can see exactly what our war machine is about.
Have a fun warmongering weekend.
I thought that was the type of meanspirited, self-righteous nonsense you were pretty much all about, but I gave you an opportunity to show something, anything different.
I am not a warmonger. For someone who throws that word around, you don’t sound like any kind of a pacifist, but like an angry, war-like personality, maybe fueled by booze–not crack or angel dust though–at least in this version of you. Check your mirror.
You’re raising the heat on American extremism right now. I hope you’re not among those who are ready to start another actual civil war to prove how much they love/hate America. Doubt your daughters would admire this act of yours.
Sorry, pal, as the Uncle of two military aged young men and father of two girls aged 17 and 13, you warmongerers, the whole lot of you, deserve nothing but contempt and derision, celebrating “America” and its military prowess (what a joke, by the way) while the whole country rots and burns. Pox on all of you.
Quite ugly and offensive. The repeated tirades are pointless. Hopefully, there will be better days.
Hmmm. The whole act of war is pointless. But…all you warmongerers are all alike. You love your “liberal interventionism” because it makes you feel all fuzzy inside, and is an easy out to solving amazing complex and difficult problems through what used to be channels of diplomacy; it’s simply laziness and stupidity.
You aren’t helping to solve complex and difficult problems (whose answers are nevertheless obvious to you?) or raise awareness, just ranting and foaming at the mouth, hurling self-righteous denunciations at commenters who’ve done nothing to deserve this bullshit from you.
I don’t know (for sure) that you’re not a self-aware person, but please get some more love into your heart and mind right away. Maybe you’re just having a terrible week, and even wingnuts and trolls have souls worth saving. Please take care.
You aren’t helping to solve complex and difficult problems (whose answers are nevertheless obvious to you?) or raise awareness, just ranting and foaming at the mouth, hurling self-righteous denunciations at commenters who’ve done nothing to deserve this bullshit from you.
I don’t know (for sure) that you’re not a self-aware person, but please get some more love into your heart and mind right away. Maybe you’re just having a terrible week, and even wingnuts and trolls have souls worth saving. Please take care.
Hmmm. The whole act of war is pointless. But…all you warmongerers are all alike. You love your “liberal interventionism” because it makes you feel all fuzzy inside, and is an easy out to solving amazing complex and difficult problems through what used to be channels of diplomacy; it’s simply laziness and stupidity.
You are so intemperate, man. Why can’t you moderate your tone, my good chap? Nah, say what you want of course, believing every thought you have as if all your opinions are truth itself, dude.
By the way, I’m an American who sometimes sounds like a Brit, because I talks pretty good and, I admit, can be pretentious or whatnot.
I’m worried about our country too, holmes. I just don’t share your level of disgust and seeming near hopelessness. Asking a whole nation to “man up” is an hilariously stereotypical thing for an American to type though.
And of course it’s not a zero-sum game. So ease up on the all-or-nothing rhetoric. Later pal.
(But I hope you have a good weekend, if that’s possible).
Quite ugly and offensive. The repeated tirades are pointless. Hopefully, there will be better days.
Jesus Christ, man, this isn’t a Zero Sum game. I realize I’m trying to discuss this with a bunch of bloodthirsty Brits who seem to get hard after reading this article, but your lack of understanding of the nuances of international diplomacy are stunning.
Why, again, are we the world’s policemen? All our blood and treasure has gone to waste since, arguably, World War 2, for a false assurance of “security.” Ask the working class in the Rust Belt about “security” or the black Americans in the inner city. For Gods sake, we don’t even have universal healthcare in this country, but we can still send over 100 billion to the unbelievably corrupt country of Ukraine, for a fight that we have no stake in.
Also, when is the UK going to man-up and find a way to create security without relying on the blood and treasure of your former colony half the world away? It’s pretty shameful if you ask me.
Would you prefer Russo-Chinese power? Because you can be quite certain that the American collapse you hastily declare and celebrate won’t result in a benign replacement.
I relate to a portion of your impassioned lament, but I’m convinced it could very well get worse than American global pre-eminence. Our moral authority is indeed shot, but that was already true when our politics were less extreme and polarized, when homelessness and other economically-driven catastrophes were less rampant. We should handle ourselves better overseas, maybe with a touch of uncharacteristic humility, but surrendering the lead role is unthinkable at present.
I might have a different view if I thought a retreat from the world stage would force us to confront our domestic woes in a useful way.
What a load of bollocks.
The American empire and it’s corrupt, elite, Atlanticist power base is in steep decline–one only sees our shameful exit from Afghanistan and add into that another forever war on the backs of American taxpayers in Ukraine which, by design, has no end in sight and will bleed our country’s treasury further dry.
Have you seen our cities? Our once great cities are ringed with thousands of tents of defeated and drug addicted people, many of them filled with veterans of all our recent disastrous displays of “power.” My country is also currently rendered apart by political extremism on the left and right, almost unbelievably the left has become a warmongering edifice that is but a shell of its old, civil libertarian self.
The American “empire” is a hollowed out and destroyed middle-class, and poor who can’t afford housing and are in said tents on city streets. American empire and power only works by and for the elites–the pedophilic billionaire class like Bill Gates and our Undead President, who launders money in Ukraine by the bucketfuls. Indeed, it’s the family business.
American power. How I wish to never see that statement again.