This year hasn’t quite gone to plan for Turkey’s most powerful man. After two decades as Prime Minister and now President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could be about to lose his job. In a country of huge strategic and economic importance, he has presided over a gradual dismantling of democracy. The most important election in the world this year will decide whether the slide continues, or whether democracy in Turkey still stands strong.
The 100th anniversary of the founding of the modern Turkish republic this year was supposed to mark Erdoğan’s crowning moment: the point at which he hoped his muscular regional power would assert its place on the world stage. But his plans for a triumphant centenary re-election were dealt a severe blow as a devastating earthquake ripped through south-eastern Turkey in February, killing more than 50,000 people.
The last time a similarly destructive earthquake hit, it was 1999 and Erdoğan was fresh out of prison, convicted of inciting religious hatred and banned from public office. He was deeply distrusted by the secular elite running the country, but he took the lead in lambasting those in authority for their callousness and incompetence in response to the earthquake. Capturing the public mood, he led his Islamist party to national election victory three years later.
This time, though it was his own authority which was shaken by allegations of catastrophic corruption in construction projects built on the cheap in the earthquake zone, while state institutions which he has made less independent were criticised for failing to respond when thousands of buildings collapsed.
Any government would have struggled to cope with a disaster on the scale of February’s earthquake, but Erdoğan was already presiding over an economy suffering rampant inflation – an annual rate of 85% as recently as October and still above 50% in March – as well as a currency in freefall.
So, he’s under pressure. The Justice and Development Party which he created and leads with unquestioned authority had been an election-winning machine. But now, in the presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14 (with a likely presidential run-off on May 28) he is facing the prospect of his first ever defeat.
And the rest of the world is watching closely. Turkey’s strategic location has always made it important, but it now matters more than ever, with Erdoğan playing both sides during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: last year, Turkey brokered a deal allowing the export of Ukrainian grain, seen as vital for world food supplies; it is a member of Nato with a large standing army, but unlike its allies it maintains many economic ties with Russia.
Turkey is also an important power in the Middle East with a sphere of influence it polices across its volatile borders with Syria and northern Iraq; and its complex relationship with Europe, on issues ranging from migration to trade to its long-stalled EU membership application, is ever-changing and unpredictable.
All in all, this is an election of massive geopolitical significance. The result matters far beyond Turkey’s own borders. And if Erdoğan loses, a smooth transfer of power will be a real test.
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SubscribeGood article on a very important subject. Which the MSM seem – so typically – to be largely ignoring (though I must admit, I don’t really do TV and radio news much these days, so I might be wrong).
Turkey really does seem to behave far more like a non-aligned country than a NATO one much of the time (I’m not saying that’s necessarily wrong or may not be in Turkey’s best interests). But not sure they’d get into NATO today if they weren’t already members.
Good article on a very important subject. Which the MSM seem – so typically – to be largely ignoring (though I must admit, I don’t really do TV and radio news much these days, so I might be wrong).
Turkey really does seem to behave far more like a non-aligned country than a NATO one much of the time (I’m not saying that’s necessarily wrong or may not be in Turkey’s best interests). But not sure they’d get into NATO today if they weren’t already members.
Please don’t inflate what happened on January 6th to the place of a serious challenge. It was a bunch of understandably frustrated people with the usual smattering of crazies who watched much bigger and more violent and destructive protests get a nod and a wink the previous year testing the waters. As could have been predicted, the same indulgence was not shown to Trumpies as to BLM. The capitol is fine but several major US cities are a shell of what they were three years ago and that’s okay with the progressives.
Indeed if their is a coup in Turkey it will be a real coup,
Indeed if their is a coup in Turkey it will be a real coup,
Please don’t inflate what happened on January 6th to the place of a serious challenge. It was a bunch of understandably frustrated people with the usual smattering of crazies who watched much bigger and more violent and destructive protests get a nod and a wink the previous year testing the waters. As could have been predicted, the same indulgence was not shown to Trumpies as to BLM. The capitol is fine but several major US cities are a shell of what they were three years ago and that’s okay with the progressives.
“The President’s complete control of state institutions and his dominance of the media creates nothing close to a level playing field.”
Sound familiar?
“The President’s complete control of state institutions and his dominance of the media creates nothing close to a level playing field.”
Sound familiar?
There is a good (though skewed) BBC documentary about him at the moment. Of course it glosses over his achievements and paints even his political success in a sinister light – not that there isn’t a darker side to him. It relies heavily on english-speaking liberals wringing their hands and dead-eyed cronies who uniformly say “nothing to see here”. I haven’t finished it yet but would definitely recommend. The BBC should concentrate on making more things like this.
He is a rabid antisemite and a supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood and lives in a 400 million dollar mansion. There is no dark side, he is dark through and through.
Indeed. Not a nice chap!
Indeed. Not a nice chap!
Erdogan is a rabid antisemite and a supporter of the Muslim brotherhood. There is no dark side. He is dark through and through.
He is a rabid antisemite and a supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood and lives in a 400 million dollar mansion. There is no dark side, he is dark through and through.
Erdogan is a rabid antisemite and a supporter of the Muslim brotherhood. There is no dark side. He is dark through and through.
There is a good (though skewed) BBC documentary about him at the moment. Of course it glosses over his achievements and paints even his political success in a sinister light – not that there isn’t a darker side to him. It relies heavily on english-speaking liberals wringing their hands and dead-eyed cronies who uniformly say “nothing to see here”. I haven’t finished it yet but would definitely recommend. The BBC should concentrate on making more things like this.
I just spent a week in small-town Turkey on business, which is not nearly enough to really gauge a public mood, but people I spoke to do seem fed up with Erdogan. More on inflation and (alleged) corruption. The freedom thing didn’t seem uppermost in their minds. Although all I spoke to thought that the media was concealing Erdogan’s (alleged) illness.
The announcement of a “new” (actually long-existing and known about) “billion barrel” oilfield discovery near the Syrian border was greeted with cynicism as timed electoral propaganda.
I watched the BBC documentary last night and would concur with Milton Gibbon’s assessment in the comments here.
I just spent a week in small-town Turkey on business, which is not nearly enough to really gauge a public mood, but people I spoke to do seem fed up with Erdogan. More on inflation and (alleged) corruption. The freedom thing didn’t seem uppermost in their minds. Although all I spoke to thought that the media was concealing Erdogan’s (alleged) illness.
The announcement of a “new” (actually long-existing and known about) “billion barrel” oilfield discovery near the Syrian border was greeted with cynicism as timed electoral propaganda.
I watched the BBC documentary last night and would concur with Milton Gibbon’s assessment in the comments here.
Bookies are making Kilicdaroglu the clear favourite to win the election. But what are the odds that he would then survive long as the next President?
Bookies are making Kilicdaroglu the clear favourite to win the election. But what are the odds that he would then survive long as the next President?
Thanks for this highly explanatory essay. The 2016 coup was exciting at first, but strangely incompetent. They could easily have won, but inexplicably let E. simply proceed unimpeded.
As for his use of “takkiye” as a cover for pan-Islamism, much under-studied. But to do so could compromise our role via a vis Bosnia in the Balkan wars. Severely.
Thanks for this highly explanatory essay. The 2016 coup was exciting at first, but strangely incompetent. They could easily have won, but inexplicably let E. simply proceed unimpeded.
As for his use of “takkiye” as a cover for pan-Islamism, much under-studied. But to do so could compromise our role via a vis Bosnia in the Balkan wars. Severely.
Does anyone seriously believe Erodan will go quietly into the political night, whether he wins the election ir not? I suspect the election fix is already in.
Does anyone seriously believe Erodan will go quietly into the political night, whether he wins the election ir not? I suspect the election fix is already in.
Turkey might not be a good fit for the EU politically but there’s no good reason it shouldn’t be able to join the European Economic Area and keep working on its EU membership. The right kind of trade and diplomacy could make Turkey a major power not only in its own immediate back yard but amongst its fellow Turkic peoples to the east all the way to northern Afghanistan and (this next part could be really interesting) Xinjiang Province, China, otherwise known as East Turkestan. A new government might even want to improve relations with its NATO allies and take a look at the Irish Good Friday Accords playbook and use it as a guide for easing tensions with the Kurds on both sides of the border. This could be a real “Morning in Ankara” moment if Erdogan loses and his handpicked generals don’t keep him in office anyway..
Does “east all the way to northern Afghanistan” include Armenia?
Oh, VERY doubtful….
Oh, VERY doubtful….
Does “east all the way to northern Afghanistan” include Armenia?
Turkey might not be a good fit for the EU politically but there’s no good reason it shouldn’t be able to join the European Economic Area and keep working on its EU membership. The right kind of trade and diplomacy could make Turkey a major power not only in its own immediate back yard but amongst its fellow Turkic peoples to the east all the way to northern Afghanistan and (this next part could be really interesting) Xinjiang Province, China, otherwise known as East Turkestan. A new government might even want to improve relations with its NATO allies and take a look at the Irish Good Friday Accords playbook and use it as a guide for easing tensions with the Kurds on both sides of the border. This could be a real “Morning in Ankara” moment if Erdogan loses and his handpicked generals don’t keep him in office anyway..
No mention of the disastrous multiple devaluations of the Turkish currency?
No mention of the disastrous multiple devaluations of the Turkish currency?