AL: A very good approach, to probe a large region of space, is to release many small probes — like a dandelion seeding its environment. If you have a probe visiting the habitable zone of a star like the Sun, the probe itself might be too big and move too fast to land on a particular planet. If you want to probe a lot of regions and a lot of planets, you might just spread dandelion seeds. In fact, just this year, we founded a new space corporation with my colleague, Dr Frank Laukien, that aims to use this approach for the Moon and Mars, instead of the traditional approach of using just one big probe and visiting one location.
FR: How do they propel themselves?
AL: It depends on the nature of the engine. The only type of engine that we employ so far for interstellar probes are chemical rockets that can push a probe up to about a thousandth of the speed of light. But there could be much better schemes. For example, a very distinguished British cosmologist named Hermann Bondi wrote a paper in 1957, suggesting that if you have a negative mass — we are used to positive masses, but a negative mass in principle is possible to construct — then the negative mass will push away, if you put the positive mass next to it. And the positive mass will pull the negative mass with it. So together, they would accelerate indefinitely up to the speed of light. That is a type of engine that we have never constructed, and could potentially be engineered, if we developed the physics behind it.
FR: So should we assume that an alien species could have far more sophisticated technology than we do?
AL: Yes, and the way I think of it, it’s just like going on a date. You can learn from the other person. We should look at it as an opportunity; we shouldn’t be fearful of it. We are probably not sophisticated enough to be a threat to whatever comes to visit us. But we can make money from it — if we learn how to replicate [the technology] here on Earth. We can get a leap into our future.
As for what they might be hoping to accomplish — if you stay on your planet, then you might be annihilated or destroyed by a single-point catastrophe — we will not know until we observe them. I don’t think it makes sense to establish a committee of experts, and decide what the protocol is for responding to visitors. We should just try and figure out what they’re seeking. I spoke to Henry Kissinger just last year, and I asked him — because he negotiated with other nations, where the culture is very different — what is the realpolitik of interstellar communication? And he said that first you want to learn what the other side is seeking, and only then develop a dialogue with them.
FR: Is there any evidence from observatories or telescopes that these probes are actually entering our solar system?
AL: The Government collects data as a result of national security concerns and the sensors the government is using are classified. If there is high-quality data, it’s not being released to the public. But an extraterrestrial technological object has nothing to do with national security. It doesn’t adhere to national borders, and therefore any knowledge about it should be shared by all humans. It shouldn’t be the privilege of the President of the United States. We know that we are not at the centre of the universe; we know that there are billions of other Earth-Sun systems in the Milky Way galaxy alone. We are not at the centre of the stage, and we just came to the cosmic play at the end ,over the past few million years. The play is not about us.
FR: Tell me what it’s like being an expert in aliens. It must be quite an odd field to choose as your specialism.
AL: The way to think of me is as a farm boy. I’m connected to nature more than people. I have no social media. I don’t care how many likes I get. I’m just trying to do what sounds like common sense — something today which is not that common (especially in academia). There are many of my colleagues working on extra dimensions of the multiverse who do fancy mathematics — and it’s their way of showing off that they are smart. But if there is an object from another civilisation that could change the future of humanity, it may not take fancy maths to realise that it’s not a rock. When there is data about something unusual, we’re supposed to be curious. There is uncertainty. You can be wrong. That’s part of the job description.
FR: What if you are a young junior professor, at a university like Harvard, when stepping outside the bounds of what’s considered acceptable science is too risky?
AL: If you look at the career of Pablo Picasso, you will find that early on, he was a realist. He tried to draw in the style of traditional painting. After he mastered that, he invented cubism, which was disruptive. So as a young scientist, you don’t want to disrupt the system. You want to learn first of all the basic principles of physics, and apply them along the themes that are defined by senior people in academia, so that you can get a postdoc position after your PhD. Eventually you’re promoted to tenure.
But what happens after people get tenure is they are even more obsessed with their ego. They want to get honours, awards — to be recognised by their peers — and they conform to the beaten path. I say that the road not taken is the most interesting thing to take, because it may have low-hanging fruit. So I advise young scholars: if you’re interested in innovation, once you get tenure, start to be creative: innovate, because that’s the whole purpose of academia. Betray the slogan of the Party in George Orwell’s 1984, “ignorance is strength”. That’s what academia should be about.
But unfortunately, it’s not. I heard, a few days ago, a very distinguished scientist, who said: “I don’t really want to know whether Covid-19 came from a lab leak, or the wet market in Wuhan.” Why would he say that? Because he doesn’t want the image of science to be tarnished, if it came from a lab leak. This is similar to arguing that “ignorance is strength”. Knowledge is strength, and the same is true about the nature of unidentified aerial phenomena, the nature of dark matter. Everything should be driven by our ambition to be knowledgeable, because then we can adapt even if reality doesn’t look as pretty as it should be. Let us see it.
FR: There is a genuine cohort of your colleagues who would say that there is 0% probability that aliens do exist. What do you think the probability is of life beyond Earth?
AL: Galileo was placed under house arrest just for suggesting that maybe the Earth moves around the Sun, and today he would have been cancelled on social media. If you were to ask those theologians, they would say there is zero probability that the Earth is not at the centre of the universe. Now, why would they say that? Because the church wanted to control people. There are always ulterior motives. I bet you that if we find a piece of technological equipment from another civilisation, people will say: “Of course, this was talked about for decades. There is nothing really new — we knew it all along.”
But if I had to guess, I would say not only that we are not alone, but that there were many technological civilisations before us that reached greater heights. We are probably not even close to the top half of their advances. They would have technologies that look like magic to us — like miracles in religious texts. It’s possible that that civilisation could create life in its laboratories. It would bring the concept of God, or something very capable, into reality — it will unify science and religion in some sense. I think it’s very likely that they were out there billions of years ago, maybe not right now. But they existed, and the only question is, when will we find the conclusive evidence beyond any doubt? And for that, we need to search. If there are objects of technological origin, we will find them.
***
This transcript has been lightly edited.
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SubscribeAliens do exist, and in the their millions if not billions.
Currently they are sitting on the other side of the English Channel pumping up their lilos and canoes in preparation for a Springtime invasion/offensive, that would make Adolph or the Kaiser “green with envy “.
We are going to need more than Captain Kirk to stop this one.
Aliens do exist, and in the their millions if not billions.
Currently they are sitting on the other side of the English Channel pumping up their lilos and canoes in preparation for a Springtime invasion/offensive, that would make Adolph or the Kaiser “green with envy “.
We are going to need more than Captain Kirk to stop this one.
A wonderful example of free thinking. I see parallels between what Avi Loeb describes here and the essay by Paul Kingsnorth. Is it merely a coincidence that both appear on the same day? It could be, but i think not. Unherd habitually publishes articles that have resonances, even where the subject matter is quite different.
Let me be clear. This is not so much about “belief in aliens”, or more accurately, extraterrestrial civilisations. It’s about a particular spirit of enquiry, and the plea to young scientists embarking on their careers is of particular importance.
Loeb references cancel culture, and draws parallels with the Inquisition. Quite! It’s worth remembering that whilst the Inquisition may have seemed all-powerful at the time, it did not prevail. I read comments which suggest that our institutions are too captured by Critical Theory for them to change, and i shake my head. CT too, will not prevail. ET won’t care about DEI or deities.
Hm, don’t agree. Take the Inquisition, for example. There, new generations with an ever-increasing population were able to overcome the existing regime. But when the indigenous population might decrease and millions of new cultures will come in from around the world, then the future will be at the mercy of those new populations. Certainly, cancel culture will disappear but it might be removed by violent means.
This is why cancel culture is so dangerous. Yes it will disappear but the reaction might well be even worse. Luckily, I will not be around.
Hm, don’t agree. Take the Inquisition, for example. There, new generations with an ever-increasing population were able to overcome the existing regime. But when the indigenous population might decrease and millions of new cultures will come in from around the world, then the future will be at the mercy of those new populations. Certainly, cancel culture will disappear but it might be removed by violent means.
This is why cancel culture is so dangerous. Yes it will disappear but the reaction might well be even worse. Luckily, I will not be around.
A wonderful example of free thinking. I see parallels between what Avi Loeb describes here and the essay by Paul Kingsnorth. Is it merely a coincidence that both appear on the same day? It could be, but i think not. Unherd habitually publishes articles that have resonances, even where the subject matter is quite different.
Let me be clear. This is not so much about “belief in aliens”, or more accurately, extraterrestrial civilisations. It’s about a particular spirit of enquiry, and the plea to young scientists embarking on their careers is of particular importance.
Loeb references cancel culture, and draws parallels with the Inquisition. Quite! It’s worth remembering that whilst the Inquisition may have seemed all-powerful at the time, it did not prevail. I read comments which suggest that our institutions are too captured by Critical Theory for them to change, and i shake my head. CT too, will not prevail. ET won’t care about DEI or deities.
I would be astonished if we somehow learned that this insignificant rock contained all the life in the universe. Truly astonished. This is not the same as claiming that other intelligent/sapient life exists and certainly not the same as stating that is visiting us. In that sense, I still think we’re alone in the universe.
Consider concepts such as the Drake equation, which multiplies a series of probabilistic values for intelligent life to occur in our galaxy. Such as appropriately hot, stable and long lived stars, the probability of a planet with appropriate chemistry etc. Although a number of the probabilities are extremely tentative (e.g. is the odds of life occurring on an earth like planet closer to 1 or 0) with the lack of data points we have, the starting number is 400,000,000,000.
This can be paired against the concept of the Great Filter, which is related to the steps in The Drake equation but asks which one is the point that blocks off development – life forming in the first place, evolving complex biology or developing a technologically advanced civilization.
I have no idea what our current inquiries will discover, but detecting proof of even the most basic life of non-terrestrial origin would likely indicate the universe is teeming with life of some sort. The Great Filter is perhaps where we we are now, a civilization that has lost its urge for discovery and progress. Or maybe it’s just speed bump.
For myself, I suspect the reason for the Great Silence (aka the Fermi Paradox) is that any lifeform that gets to where humanity is, is only going to stay in that state for a (cosmically speaking) miniscule period of time. We are on the verge of hacking our own genetic coding, and when we do, it’s unlikely humanity will retain it’s existing evolutionary/biological drivers for long – what we become therafter is unknowable, and terrifyingly that scenario is likely no more that a dozen decades away.
“In 1960, Drake organizes the first SETI conference, and came up with the now-famous Drake equation:
N=N*fp ne fl fi fc fL
[where N is the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy; fp is the fraction with planets; ne is the number of planets per star capable of supporting life; fl is the fraction of planets where life evolves; fi is the fraction where intelligent life evolves; and fc is the fraction that communicates; and fL is the fraction of the planet’s life during which the communicating civilizations live.]
This serious-looking equation gave SETI a serious footing as a legitimate intellectual inquiry. The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses. And guesses—just so we’re clear—are merely expressions of prejudice. Nor can there be “informed guesses.” If you need to state how many planets with life choose to communicate, there is simply no way to make an informed guess. It’s simply prejudice. As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from “billions and billions” to zero. An expression that can mean anything means nothing. Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is literally meaningless, and has nothing to do with science.”
https://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Crichton2003.pdf
For myself, I suspect the reason for the Great Silence (aka the Fermi Paradox) is that any lifeform that gets to where humanity is, is only going to stay in that state for a (cosmically speaking) miniscule period of time. We are on the verge of hacking our own genetic coding, and when we do, it’s unlikely humanity will retain it’s existing evolutionary/biological drivers for long – what we become therafter is unknowable, and terrifyingly that scenario is likely no more that a dozen decades away.
“In 1960, Drake organizes the first SETI conference, and came up with the now-famous Drake equation:
N=N*fp ne fl fi fc fL
[where N is the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy; fp is the fraction with planets; ne is the number of planets per star capable of supporting life; fl is the fraction of planets where life evolves; fi is the fraction where intelligent life evolves; and fc is the fraction that communicates; and fL is the fraction of the planet’s life during which the communicating civilizations live.]
This serious-looking equation gave SETI a serious footing as a legitimate intellectual inquiry. The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses. And guesses—just so we’re clear—are merely expressions of prejudice. Nor can there be “informed guesses.” If you need to state how many planets with life choose to communicate, there is simply no way to make an informed guess. It’s simply prejudice. As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from “billions and billions” to zero. An expression that can mean anything means nothing. Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is literally meaningless, and has nothing to do with science.”
https://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Crichton2003.pdf
I would be astonished if we somehow learned that this insignificant rock contained all the life in the universe. Truly astonished. This is not the same as claiming that other intelligent/sapient life exists and certainly not the same as stating that is visiting us. In that sense, I still think we’re alone in the universe.
Consider concepts such as the Drake equation, which multiplies a series of probabilistic values for intelligent life to occur in our galaxy. Such as appropriately hot, stable and long lived stars, the probability of a planet with appropriate chemistry etc. Although a number of the probabilities are extremely tentative (e.g. is the odds of life occurring on an earth like planet closer to 1 or 0) with the lack of data points we have, the starting number is 400,000,000,000.
This can be paired against the concept of the Great Filter, which is related to the steps in The Drake equation but asks which one is the point that blocks off development – life forming in the first place, evolving complex biology or developing a technologically advanced civilization.
I have no idea what our current inquiries will discover, but detecting proof of even the most basic life of non-terrestrial origin would likely indicate the universe is teeming with life of some sort. The Great Filter is perhaps where we we are now, a civilization that has lost its urge for discovery and progress. Or maybe it’s just speed bump.
It’s a question of time. There probably were advanced civilisations within 100 lightyears of Earth, but existed, flourished, then died; a long time ago. No overlap.
To suggest that we are / will be, the only intelligent life in the universe chimes with the excessive narcissism of todays bien pensant, but that’s all it is. Any advanced extraterrestrials passing our way would observe us, conclude we were stupid and cruel, then drive on by.
It’s a question of time. There probably were advanced civilisations within 100 lightyears of Earth, but existed, flourished, then died; a long time ago. No overlap.
To suggest that we are / will be, the only intelligent life in the universe chimes with the excessive narcissism of todays bien pensant, but that’s all it is. Any advanced extraterrestrials passing our way would observe us, conclude we were stupid and cruel, then drive on by.
It seems pretty arrogant to assume there is no other intelligent life in the universe, based on the assumption that humans are so super clever.
As Douglas Adams observed, humans think they’re the smartest animals on the planet because we invented things like money and jobs, whereas dolphins just swim around having fun all day. Dolphins think they’re the smartest animals on the planet because they swim around having fun all day..
“Dolphins think they’re the smartest animals on the planet because they swim around having fun all day.”
Until they are eaten by ORCAS.
Who really are “the smartest animals on the planet”.
In the story the Dolphins escape the Galactic Highway destruction by beaming up and saying ‘Thanks for the fish’. The Orcas perish with the rest of us.
Blast!
Blast!
In the story the Dolphins escape the Galactic Highway destruction by beaming up and saying ‘Thanks for the fish’. The Orcas perish with the rest of us.
“Dolphins think they’re the smartest animals on the planet because they swim around having fun all day.”
Until they are eaten by ORCAS.
Who really are “the smartest animals on the planet”.
As Douglas Adams observed, humans think they’re the smartest animals on the planet because we invented things like money and jobs, whereas dolphins just swim around having fun all day. Dolphins think they’re the smartest animals on the planet because they swim around having fun all day..
It seems pretty arrogant to assume there is no other intelligent life in the universe, based on the assumption that humans are so super clever.
Given interstellar distances it’s highly likely that mankind will never encounter aliens.
If we do they will probably be an artificial life form that destroyed their biological creators.
Given interstellar distances it’s highly likely that mankind will never encounter aliens.
If we do they will probably be an artificial life form that destroyed their biological creators.
Like gods, I’ll believe in aliens when I see them. The SciFi aliens with bulbous hairless heads that is. If they are invisible, ethereal or cross dimensional perhaps they cannot, or have no wish to, acknowledge us. I watched an interesting film / movie on the topic with quite educated people convinced we are visited by benevolent beings on a selective basis. They seemed a bit mad, like attendees at a séance, very frustrated they could not share their ‘visions’ with the rest of us.
Are we ready? It would be good to have non intrusive surgery, new teeth, cancer banished and hostile viruses’ diminished. Putin’s missiles frozen in mid flight, Mars terraformed and fast transit between. New tech that dealt with poverty overnight. Knowing us, we’d reject all that with our control freakery. ‘We demand the right to be attacked by munitions,’ sort of thing. They seem to be running Planet Earth at the moment.
There’s a well-documented incident where a “hovering craft” shut down the controls at a US nuclear missile facility for a couple of hours.
Pentagon Investigating UFOs That Possibly Turned Off Warheads (popularmechanics.com)
There’s a well-documented incident where a “hovering craft” shut down the controls at a US nuclear missile facility for a couple of hours.
Pentagon Investigating UFOs That Possibly Turned Off Warheads (popularmechanics.com)
Like gods, I’ll believe in aliens when I see them. The SciFi aliens with bulbous hairless heads that is. If they are invisible, ethereal or cross dimensional perhaps they cannot, or have no wish to, acknowledge us. I watched an interesting film / movie on the topic with quite educated people convinced we are visited by benevolent beings on a selective basis. They seemed a bit mad, like attendees at a séance, very frustrated they could not share their ‘visions’ with the rest of us.
Are we ready? It would be good to have non intrusive surgery, new teeth, cancer banished and hostile viruses’ diminished. Putin’s missiles frozen in mid flight, Mars terraformed and fast transit between. New tech that dealt with poverty overnight. Knowing us, we’d reject all that with our control freakery. ‘We demand the right to be attacked by munitions,’ sort of thing. They seem to be running Planet Earth at the moment.
Fascinating read and enjoyed the actual podcast too.
I’d not sensed there was a scientific community attempt to close down such analysis or thinking. I think it’s about being inquisitive and open minded. Anyone v fixed in their thinking on this question probably worth ignoring as a general rule.
I watched the BBC’s ‘First Contact – An Alien Encounter’ few months ago. Was gripping and used some of the ‘Oumuamua’ theory. Of course it’s fiction but plausible fiction and IMO v well done. Certainly thought provoking.
Yes, saw that, thanks for the reminder.
The only problem is whether those with fixed thinking are in a position to prevent career advancement for those who aren’t. This applies in so many spheres (probably not those utilising Dyson spheres!)
Yes, saw that, thanks for the reminder.
The only problem is whether those with fixed thinking are in a position to prevent career advancement for those who aren’t. This applies in so many spheres (probably not those utilising Dyson spheres!)
Fascinating read and enjoyed the actual podcast too.
I’d not sensed there was a scientific community attempt to close down such analysis or thinking. I think it’s about being inquisitive and open minded. Anyone v fixed in their thinking on this question probably worth ignoring as a general rule.
I watched the BBC’s ‘First Contact – An Alien Encounter’ few months ago. Was gripping and used some of the ‘Oumuamua’ theory. Of course it’s fiction but plausible fiction and IMO v well done. Certainly thought provoking.
“How presumptuous to think we humans are special.” And yet these science-minded people cannot see that this is a fundamentally theological argument, not a scientific one.
I would be curious to know the overlap between people who believe in aliens and those who participate in organized religion. I would suspect there is little overlap — because alien-interest is one of the ways man’s fundamentally religious outlook is expressed among people who who have committed themselves to the idea that religion is bosh or God doesn’t exist or the like.
“How presumptuous to think we humans are special.” And yet these science-minded people cannot see that this is a fundamentally theological argument, not a scientific one.
I would be curious to know the overlap between people who believe in aliens and those who participate in organized religion. I would suspect there is little overlap — because alien-interest is one of the ways man’s fundamentally religious outlook is expressed among people who who have committed themselves to the idea that religion is bosh or God doesn’t exist or the like.
Starfleet commander, make your report! Yes, emperor Zog. We travelled many light years, braved supernovae, black holes, and gravity storms! We finally found a planet they call Earth. Crewbeing Zagga mooned a lonely drunk on a dirt track in Arizona, then we returned home. Excellent, you did well, like all the others. I mean, what else were you supposed to do?
Starfleet commander, make your report! Yes, emperor Zog. We travelled many light years, braved supernovae, black holes, and gravity storms! We finally found a planet they call Earth. Crewbeing Zagga mooned a lonely drunk on a dirt track in Arizona, then we returned home. Excellent, you did well, like all the others. I mean, what else were you supposed to do?
Extraterrestrial aliens are a lot more likely to exist than not exist because of Copernicus’ insight, long before there was instrumentation to support it, that mankind is not “special” in any way. The universe does not revolve around the earth. Our sun is an ordinary star, and so is our location in the galaxy. Life can arise from abiological chemical processes.
But we have no direct evidence that any aliens have ever visited Earth. Given the vast distances between stars, what would interstellar travel actually look like? I conjecture that it will take the form of small uncrewed probes, sent out to likely candidate star systems. We have already observed that machines tolerate long-term missions through the irradiated environment of deep space much more easily than humans. I can see that eventually we will be able to launch a probe that includes a fusion engine and a large solar sail. We would use high-powered fixed base lasers, based on the Moon or an asteroid, to accelerate the probe quickly to a good fraction of light speed using the sail, no onboard fuel consumed. The probe would later use its fusion engine to decelerate in the vicinity of the target star. Both accelerations could involve G-forces much higher than human biology could tolerate.
Once in the Oort cloud of the target, the probe could follow programming to forage for the local materials it would need to remodel itself into a communications station to phone home, repurposing the sail as an antenna. It would then send information about the parts of the star system it could see directly, and receive new programming that would cause it to start making and launching Loeb’s “dandelion seed” probes of the inner planets. It would then operate as a relay station for whatever information those probes could glean about the target.
This is what I think our first interstellar exploration might look like. Now consider that anything we can do, Someone Else could probably be doing at the same time…
Extraterrestrial aliens are a lot more likely to exist than not exist because of Copernicus’ insight, long before there was instrumentation to support it, that mankind is not “special” in any way. The universe does not revolve around the earth. Our sun is an ordinary star, and so is our location in the galaxy. Life can arise from abiological chemical processes.
But we have no direct evidence that any aliens have ever visited Earth. Given the vast distances between stars, what would interstellar travel actually look like? I conjecture that it will take the form of small uncrewed probes, sent out to likely candidate star systems. We have already observed that machines tolerate long-term missions through the irradiated environment of deep space much more easily than humans. I can see that eventually we will be able to launch a probe that includes a fusion engine and a large solar sail. We would use high-powered fixed base lasers, based on the Moon or an asteroid, to accelerate the probe quickly to a good fraction of light speed using the sail, no onboard fuel consumed. The probe would later use its fusion engine to decelerate in the vicinity of the target star. Both accelerations could involve G-forces much higher than human biology could tolerate.
Once in the Oort cloud of the target, the probe could follow programming to forage for the local materials it would need to remodel itself into a communications station to phone home, repurposing the sail as an antenna. It would then send information about the parts of the star system it could see directly, and receive new programming that would cause it to start making and launching Loeb’s “dandelion seed” probes of the inner planets. It would then operate as a relay station for whatever information those probes could glean about the target.
This is what I think our first interstellar exploration might look like. Now consider that anything we can do, Someone Else could probably be doing at the same time…
There must be life out there. Life but not as we know it, Jim.
Does that apply to Wales?
Still druids around in some quiet communities.
Gaius Suetonius Paulinus would be appalled to hear that!
Nothing wrong with this interview, but UnHerd is completely missing the boat on this issue in general. It is succumbing to the tribal mentality that it otherwise scorns and buying into the stigmatization of those who argue, on perfectly good evidence, that some form of non-human intelligence is among us already. All one has to do is conduct a deep dive into the work of the credible people. Who are they? Just for starters — Garry Nolan, Jacques Vallee, Leslie Kean, Ralph Blumenthal, James Fox, John Keel, George Knapp, David Fravor, Chris Mellon, Lue Elizondo, Richard Dolan.
Nothing wrong with this interview, but UnHerd is completely missing the boat on this issue in general. It is succumbing to the tribal mentality that it otherwise scorns and buying into the stigmatization of those who argue, on perfectly good evidence, that some form of non-human intelligence is among us already. All one has to do is conduct a deep dive into the work of the credible people. Who are they? Just for starters — Garry Nolan, Jacques Vallee, Leslie Kean, Ralph Blumenthal, James Fox, John Keel, George Knapp, David Fravor, Chris Mellon, Lue Elizondo, Richard Dolan.