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The EU has created a new dictatorship The death of Tunisian democracy will soon backfire

This is not what a democracy looks like (FRED DUFOUR/AFP via Getty Images)

This is not what a democracy looks like (FRED DUFOUR/AFP via Getty Images)


August 12, 2022   5 mins

Seifeddine Ferjani was just ten years old when he arrived in the UK. It was 1990, and his family had been forced to flee Tunisia after his father, Said, became close to the opposition figure Rached Ghannouchi. For the next 20 years, Ferjani grew up in London; he never went back.

But then a Tunisian street vendor set himself on fire at repeated abuse from the police, and the Arab Spring began. Ferjani and his family knew they had to return. Four months later, they finally did.

“It was completely and utterly amazing to me,” he remembers. “Tunisia had changed. What first struck me was something that might seem odd: there were garbage strikes everywhere. People were refusing to pick up the garbage because they were not being paid enough. That, to me, was symptomatic of a new day.”

Almost 12 years later, these words seem almost forlorn. If the yearning for Arab democracy began in Tunisia, it looks like it might finally have ended there, too, when last week the Tunisian President Kais Saied held a referendum that effectively cancelled democracy in the country.

Saied — more commonly known as Kais — has been President since October 2019. He is, in a mordant irony, a retired law professor who initially campaigned on a platform to allow citizens to recall elected officials, while claiming that many of the country’s problems came from widespread disregard of the country’s “many constitutional laws”.

But just under three years later, on 25 July, in a referendum he simply ordered (he’s been ruling by decree since July 2021), voters granted him full executive control of the country, supreme command of the army and the ability to appoint a government without the consent of parliament. Fewer than a third of voters turned out, but of those who did, 94.6% voted for a series of expanded powers that also weaken the judiciary and remove checks on the powers of the presidency. All in all, it’s what we might legitimately call a democratic coup.

When Ferjani returned to Tunisia, his father Said was one of those given the job of mediating the peaceful move to elections in 2011, or as Ferjani puts it, “negotiating the country’s way into democracy”. In another irony, sinister this time, the first people Said had to deal with were the same who had been involved in his torture in 1987. “It was necessary: he needed to help create a sense that there would be laws protecting the transition — that it wouldn’t just be a free for all,” Ferjani tells me. “And to that extent, I think my father did something that he should be proud of, because the situation didn’t escalate into street killings or acts of vengeance or anything like that, which was what so many people feared would happen.”

If that was a high point, it didn’t last for long. The new government soon found it hard to provide for the enlarged expectations of its citizenry. People began to feel they weren’t being represented. The new 2014 constitution — the explicit goal of which was to “build the state, for freedom from tyranny, responding to its free will, and to achieve the objectives of the revolution for freedom and dignity” — was not properly implemented.

Alongside these failures of governance was an explosion of disinformation in the media and online, particularly on Facebook. A favoured target was Nabil Karoui, a media mogul and candidate in the 2019 presidential elections, who was accused of hiring a Mossad agent to lobby for him in DC, which led to widespread accusations that he was an Israeli plant.

Into this chaos walked Kais — “an unremarkable teacher at university,” according to Ferjani — who was also a longstanding conservative who believed homosexuality was a conspiracy wrought by foreign powers. But he had one advantage. He was, quite simply, someone who could appeal to everybody. He spoke the language of nationalism to the Arab nationalists; of Islamism to the Islamists; and of law and change to the youth. In the end, everyone saw him as someone who was different — the change the country so desperately needed.

Once in power, Kais began to speak out against anyone who might feasibly check his authority, especially the judiciary. He was always hinting at near-invisible, conspiratorial forces that were undermining the government and the rights of ordinary Tunisians. On 25 July 2021, he dissolved parliament and sacked the Prime Minister in the face of mass protests after years of government paralysis, corruption and a worsening economy. He has ruled by decree ever since.

In February, he dissolved the country’s Supreme Judicial Council, accusing it of bias. The council rejected his decision, saying in a statement that “it would continue carrying out its duties”. The move struck at the heart of Tunisia’s legal system because the council is charged with ensuring the independence of its judiciary. If it wasn’t clear before that Kais had abandoned even the pretence of being a democratic leader, there is no doubt about it now.

“We have seen a ruler undermine every single democratic institution that was built by Tunisian people following their careful development post-revolution,” says Rashad Ali, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue. Even worse, he explains, “European democracies have stood by, watched, or at times tacitly supported these regressive measures.”

Ferjani agrees. “Right now, it’s up in the air. There’s even been pressure to concede the referendum result because of fears for stability and threats of violence in the streets.” On 28 July, just days after the referendum, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed concerns that “Tunisia has experienced an alarming erosion of democratic norms over the past year and reversed many of the Tunisian people’s hard-won gains since 2011.” In response, through a statement on the presidential Facebook page, Kais affirmed “the independence of the national decision and his rejection of any form of interference in national affairs” and declared the “only voice is the voice of the people”.

Ferjani claims that the response to these words from European capitals was “mealy-mouthed”, which has only emboldened Kais. He sees EU powers as partly culpable for recent events in Tunisia. “The EU,” he says, “is part of the reason for the return of autocracy in Tunisia.”

According to Ali, events in Tunisia now pose a danger to the whole continent. “Safeguarding democracy and democratic values and supporting those fighting for it is in Europe’s interest and recent events in Ukraine have shown the dangers of allowing regressive and authoritarian politics any foothold within or around European frontiers,” he concludes.

There are clear things that the Europeans can do. First, as the Blinken episode revealed, Kais Saeed and his inner circle are sensitive to messaging. Holding them to account in terms of their failure to meet democratic standards, not normalising claims that what is unfolding is democratic, is key. EU powers must therefore accept that the parliamentary elections coming this December will not be fair, rather than bolster the absurd government claims that they will be a democratic step which aids Kais enormously.

Second, they must ring-fence aid and tie it to enhanced scrutiny of Kais’s inner circle and Tunisia’s tender process. At present there is no real way of checking that the money earmarked for helping Tunisians, and ensuring the economy doesn’t collapse, is going to the right place. The finances of Kais and his inner circle need to be investigated and the results properly communicated, so that policy makers in donor states are aware of where the money is actually going. Not least because Kais and his inner circle are always blaming outsiders for the country’s financial problems.

And finally, they should be unequivocally supportive of the Tunisian voices opposing Kais. In the end, Ferjani’s message is simple: “If Europe wants help Tunisia, it needs to admit publicly that it is no longer a democracy.”

It’s common in European capitals to lament the curdling of the Arab Spring into winter; less common is to hear the same lament for multiple failings of EU governments. Most of what happened during those revolutions across the Middle East was and is obviously beyond their control. But the case of Tunisia shows that when you are content only to mouth the platitudes of democracy, you not only fail to support it but end up enabling its opposite: autocracy. In the end, while the diplomats in Brussels and Berlin sleep and dine in comfort, it is the people on the ground who suffer, as they always do.


David Patrikarakos is UnHerd‘s foreign correspondent. His latest book is War in 140 characters: how social media is reshaping conflict in the 21st century. (Hachette)

dpatrikarakos

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Nell Clover
Nell Clover
2 years ago

The author’s mistake is thinking if only the EU was less complacent it would be actively “safeguarding democracy and democratic values”. Where does this notion come from that the EU is a font of democratic values? Why is anyone looking to the EU to help democracy?

The EU is formed from nation states that are democratic, but the vast majority of these states have been dictatorships in my lifetime. The EU itself has an executive that is not in any practical sense under democratic control. The EU regularly undermines its own nation states’ democratic governments when they conflict with the views of the Commission.

The EU is simply an expansionist technocratic empire, its logic no more and no less. For non-EU countries that are likely to be future members, the EU is all smiles and money. For countries that are not targets for joining there is indifference. For countries that reject the EU or otherwise complicate its expansionist plans, the EU will use what little external power it has to undermine those countries, just like it does with its own nation states.

Which brings us back to Tunisia. Much of North Africa is either societally incapable or simply unwilling to become client states of the EU. Chaos is the enemy of crafting a client state. Tunisia’s anti-democratic leader is not openly hostile to the EU and he is seen as an anchor against chaos. He is the EU’s best chance to create a client state out of Tunisia and that’s why the EU continue to support him.

Forget Tunisian democracy, there’s a future EU member to groom.

Last edited 2 years ago by Nell Clover
Robert James
Robert James
2 years ago
Reply to  Nell Clover

And oh the enrichment, just think of how excited the EU Technocrats must be about all of that…

Ethniciodo Rodenydo
Ethniciodo Rodenydo
2 years ago
Reply to  Nell Clover

I cannot see anyone wanting Tunisia in the EU

Nell Clover
Nell Clover
2 years ago

Tunisia is the largest recipient of the EU’s European Neighbourhood Instrument. 3 out of the 6 ENI objectives relate to integration with the EU of people, economy and government. The EU may not want Tunisia to join the EU but it is buying influence to make Tunisia subject to the EU’s rules, ie a client state.

Warren Trees
Warren Trees
2 years ago
Reply to  Nell Clover

After years of trying to create “client states” in the middle East, the world has proved your point about these areas being societally incapable or simply unwilling. These societies don’t separate religion and government. Their religion is the governing law, so democracy seems impossible in the first place.

Steve White
Steve White
2 years ago

You’re going to see this more and more. There will be 2 types of authoritarian rule in the future. strong man rule, and strong narrative rule. The strong man will be the autocrat, the strong narrative authoritarians are those who rule with tightly controlled information. Debate and disagreement will be allowed within certain parameters, but on nothing that the information controllers want to dictate. The strong narrative rule will pretend to be democratic, just, the good guys. This will be part of the narrative. What they want to promote will be good, and what they want to crush will be evil.

Last edited 2 years ago by Steve White
R Wright
R Wright
2 years ago

The author is delusion in believing that an avowedly technocratic and illiberal organisation that believes in increasing its own power through stealth would care at all about autocracies in the Third World. The Arab world is just returning to its default status quo of strong men. I don’t care if their western influenced youth want change. Most of them are in the West already in any event thanks to 50 years of mass immigration, so it is a moot point.

Katy Hibbert
Katy Hibbert
2 years ago

In the end, Ferjani’s message is simple: “If Europe wants help Tunisia, it needs to admit publicly that it is no longer a democracy.”

What makes the author think that the EU has anything to do with democracy?It is anti-democratic. Yes, occasionally so-called “member states” are allowed to vote, but if they vote the “wrong” way the Franco-German racket that is the Eurocracy makes them vote again.

Mr Sketerzen Bhoto
Mr Sketerzen Bhoto
2 years ago

It’s not the EU’s job to police Tunisia. Nor is it the job of the US.

Diane Merriam
Diane Merriam
2 years ago

Nor is it the EU’s or the US’s job to pick winners and losers or to support either one.

Douglas McNeish
Douglas McNeish
2 years ago

Victimhood is the lens through which all nations in the African continent must be viewed, and the narrative concerning all relations with Europe and North America. More MUST be done to further democratic development, followed by “outside forces” MUST stop interfering in the will of the people, as in the case of the Tunisian referendum approving autocracy.

Insisting these nations have agency is countered with the image of puppets manipulated by nefarious economic, political and cultural forces from beyond.

And if Europe doesn’t get it right to the satisfaction of its critics, then another mass movement of “refugees,” assisted by the people trafficking industry, will be on the move, armed with “human rights” and their army of advocates. “According to Ali, events in Tunisia now pose a danger to the whole of the (European) continent.” 2015 redux?

Last edited 2 years ago by Douglas McNeish
Steve Elliott
Steve Elliott
2 years ago

I’m no fan of the EU but I don’t quite see how it “Created” a dictatorship in this case.

Seifeddine Ferjani
Seifeddine Ferjani
2 years ago
Reply to  Steve Elliott

There was a process, but during the last year, Macron recognised ‘popular legitimacy’ that over turned democracy, to no censure (how can you support democracy when a major state member does this with no comment?) it took polling as more important than institutional resilience, calling him popular based on questionable polls, and kept on pushing back on his popularity, even after Kais’s electronic referendum garnered very few people taking part after all the money and effort spent on it, by being silent when Kais’s takeover of the election commission effectively rigging the results by changing the proposed constitution midway through the referendum campaign,, and using his office to advertise for the referendum, outlawing the campaign to boycott, and making sure that everyone knew that outside scrutiny is interference. All the while they welcomed his call for elections and pre the referendum, their was pressure to get opposition members to take part risking their lives (Kais supporters were happy to mob a no campaigner calling his yes campaign treason). This of course excludes how Macron recently welcomed the results of the referendum with no censure from the EU again.. meanwhile record number of ‘Harraga’ illegal Tunisian migrants are increasing, with a security service demoralised underpaid, where sector reforms that take decades to show fruits are being unpicked, by a man seen as the answer to illegal migration coming to French Italian shores. A man who confuses a million and a billion, who takes his information from Facebook. All of this without going into EU funding of organisations that failed to support democracy.. and one, is now actively spreading conspiracy theories to conform with the new leadership.

Last edited 2 years ago by Seifeddine Ferjani
Steve Elliott
Steve Elliott
2 years ago

Thank you for your explanation.

Mike Bell
Mike Bell
2 years ago

Perhaps democracy is a luxury only wealthy countries can afford.
If people identify their poverty with the dictatorship, they will feel that things will improve if they had democracy.
However, if, in reality, the poverty is due to having not enough to trade with, then democracy just leads to politicians promising things the country could never afford….and getting thrown out a few years later.
Perhaps democracy needs sufficient wealth to allow politicians to make achievable promises?

E Williams
E Williams
2 years ago
Reply to  Mike Bell

Democracy is a Western ideal and invention. Imposing it on others doesn’t seem to work.
I live in the South Pacific where democracy was installed by gun point. It’s consistently been upended. Think Fiji, Samoa and their recent histories. Democracy doesn’t fit with the tribal structures and loyalties.

Rob Britton
Rob Britton
2 years ago

When I first started reading this article I thought it would be about the death of EU democracy rather than that of Tunisian democracy. It is slightly ironic that the EU should pose as the custodian of Tunisian democracy.

Barry Stokes
Barry Stokes
2 years ago

None of this is ever likely to happen….a truly democratic Arab state aided and abetted by the EU. Never going to happen. LOL.

Frank McCusker
Frank McCusker
2 years ago

The insane EU-bashing continues. Apparently, the EU now is responsible for democracy in Tunisia. You could scarcely make this stuff up.

Seifeddine Ferjani
Seifeddine Ferjani
2 years ago
Reply to  Frank McCusker

If reporting that the EU has helped destroy Tunisia’s democracy by supporting Kais Saeed’s rise and not pushing back on the recognition of ‘popular legitimacy’ by Macron, the enormous pressure on his opponents to risk their lives by taking part in a rigged referendum is bashing the EU.. then you’re right..

Mr Sketerzen Bhoto
Mr Sketerzen Bhoto
2 years ago

There’s little evidence here of the EU doing anything. The EU doesn’t have a unified foreign policy anyway. If we replaced the EU with Britain in the piece the commentators would be aghast at the idea that every Arab dictatorship needs to be overthrown or condemned by Britain. All you got is the EU didn’t censor Macron.