The Ukraine crisis started with Suez Oil shocks crash economies and enable enemies
We need to snatch the oil weapon from our enemies. Credit: Sergey Bobok/ AFP/Getty
Oil prices are surging. Brent crude has broken through the $100 per barrel mark — the highest level since 2014. And this could just be the start of a new oil price shock.
Russia is the world’s second biggest exporter — supplying nearly five million of the 100 million barrels of crude oil the world consumes every day. More than half of those exports flow westwards into Europe, through pipelines that cross Ukraine and Belarus. It’s difficult know which is the grimmest scenario: that the oil stops flowing due to sanctions or sabotage; or that the trade continues — filling the Kremlin’s coffers while Russian bombs rain down on Kyiv.
Markets are responding to the heightened risk in the usual manner, which could cost us dear. Oil shocks have a nasty habit of crashing economies — causing chaos far beyond the garage forecourt.
In July 2008, oil prices surged to a record high of $147 barrel. The knock-on effects were catastrophic. The ruinous cost of commuting undermined confidence in car-dependent housing developments, which crashed the sub-prime mortgage market and triggered the Global Financial Crisis. Meanwhile, the Russians took the opportunity to invade a neighbour — in this case, Georgia.
The oil shocks of the Seventies plunged the West into a decade-long retreat and the impact wasn’t just economic. A fragilised America was routed by the communists in Vietnam and traumatised by the ayatollahs in Iran. Meanwhile, the Russians took the opportunity to invade a neighbour — in this case, Afghanistan.
The Suez Crisis of 1956 was also soaked in oil. At the time, 70% of Western Europe’s oil supplies were imported via the Suez Canal. So when it was nationalised by the government of Gamal Abdul Nasser, panic ensued. Against American wishes, the British and French tried to seize back control of the vital artery. This prompted a furious President Eisenhower to punish his disobedient allies — by using the oil weapon. The Americans refused to release emergency supplies from their reserves, thus forcing the British to backdown — followed by France (and Israel). Meanwhile, the Russians took the opportunity to invade a neighbour — in this case, Hungary.
As Helen Thompson explains in her excellent new book Disorder, this was not the end of the matter: “Too often seen primarily as a story about post-war British power, the Suez crisis shattered the idea that the United States would always act as an oil supplier of last resort to its allies.” The loss of trust would have lasting consequences.
A humiliated France joined with West Germany to deepen their partnership — and lay the foundations of the European Union. Thompson quotes Konrad Adenauer’s words to the French Prime Minister: “Europe will be your revenge.” Another fateful outcome was that Western Europe did a deal with Khrushchev to gain access to Soviet oil production. Pipelines were built from East to West, re-establishing Russia as a major energy exporting power. Which brings us back to today.
The nations of the West will either hang together or hang separately. In respect to energy supplies, that means putting the trans-Atlantic relationship before domestic popularity. For instance, the Biden administration could easily pander to the American electorate by restricting exports of oil and gas. US consumers would probably benefit — but only at the cost of weakening European resolve in the face of Russian aggression. Indeed, without help from their allies, the most vulnerable countries — especially those bordering Ukraine — will be left wide open to Putin’s energy blackmail.
Europeans must make sacrifices too. In particular, the Germans need to atone for the special part they’ve played in undermining Europe’s energy security. As well as permanently scrapping the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, Berlin must revisit the insane decision to shutdown the country’s nuclear power stations. If it’s possible to restart the reactors, then that would send the clearest of signals that Europe will do what it takes to stand strong.
It’s important that we distinguish between short-term and long-term imperatives. In the short-term, we need to secure alternative supplies of oil and gas as a matter of urgency. If that means cosying-up to Saudi Arabia, then so be it. The same goes for Iran — negotiations to reach a new deal with the Tehran government were already underway before the Ukraine crisis and should be accelerated.
Meanwhile, back home, we shouldn’t be shy about squeezing a few more drops of oil and gas from the North Sea. It pains me to say it, but this is an issue on which my fellow greens need to shut-up. Yesterday, in what may be the worst-timed letter in history, the the Climate Change Committee wrote to the British government to oppose new North Sea production. Obviously, the Committee’s main concern is climate change, but we’re not talking about using more fossil fuels — we’re taking about reducing what we buy from Putin.
In any case, there’s a huge green prize to be won here. In the longer-term, the environmental agenda is perfectly aligned with the security agenda.
Over the last few months we’ve learned the hard way that depending on fossil fuels is a threat to our prosperity — and to our sovereignty. If we want to free ourselves from the destabilising effects of volatile energy prices and to snatch the oil weapon from the hands of our enemies, then we must free ourselves from fossil fuels altogether. That can’t be achieved overnight — hence the need for stop-gap measures — but it can be achieved within a generation.
Fundamental change is coming, the only question is how fast. So far, policy has been driven by climate change objectives, which operate on a timetable stretching into the second half of the 21st century. But the security agenda doesn’t allow us to wait that long. This isn’t about saving the planet, it’s about saving ourselves from the oil tyrants.
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SubscribeWhat green fool came up with the idea of shutting down oil and gas exploration and production (and nuclear) without a viable reliable alternative.
Our clown show in New Zealand did that as well. Then shut down our only oil refinery. No research, no consultation, no strategic thinking, no plan.
The closing down of new oil exploration was a ridiculous decision simply to get the Greens on board. Whilst FPTP can be grossly unfair with governments winning a majority on a third of the vote, PR can end up with the minor parties ending up with much more power than their vote share deserves
“It pains me to say it, but this is an issue on which my fellow greens need to shut-up. Yesterday, in what may be the worst-timed letter in history, the the Climate Change Committee wrote to the British government to oppose new North Sea production.”
Something along the lines of there being more joy in Heaven when one sinner repents etc. welcome back to the real world, Peter.
Not only do PR “list” candidates hold disproprtionate power, they are not accountable in the way that constituency MPs are.
In theory, yes, but in practice, no. Fewer people know who they are or how to get rid of them
Are you assuming that the electorates have the interest, never mind the knowledge, to know what to to do about long term energy security and/or ‘climate change’?
After the popular support for the totalitarian Covid measures and the deliberate ‘othering’ of a minority of vaccine hesitant fellow citizens, I’m beginning to wonder whom I fear more – Putin or my fellow citizens.
BTW I’m triple vaxxed
If I may so, that is a truly absurd comparison, that could only be applied by someone living in the navel-gazing, rather naive West, where most of us really don’t have all that much to complain about. I don’t agree with vaccine passports, but it is also a ridiculous over the top use of the term “totalitarian”.
You aren’t going to be put in a camp because of your vaccine status anywhere in the West. The only reason you are not at risk from insane / deluded / psychopathic / sincere – (whatever, doesn’t matter) Putin – though you might be of he decides to use deadly poison again in the UK – is that you don’t live in the Ukraine, or Russia, or other vulnerable neighbouring countries.
I hope that some of our culture war warriors on both Right and Left – that includes me – will have a good long look at ourselves and realise that are societies are far, far, preferable to those ruled by tyrants such as Putin who cannot be removed from power.
Putin can be removed from power. In fact he lost the presidency a while back although he was PM.
“After the popular support for the totalitarian Covid measures and the deliberate ‘othering’ of a minority of vaccine hesitant fellow citizens, I’m beginning to wonder whom I fear more – Putin or my fellow citizens”
As I see it, Peter, coerced citizens are just symptoms and need not be feared. It’s the cause we must fear – puppet governments and their puppeteer masters. Do some investigation into the Tavistock Institute of Human Relations, it’s eye-opening stuff.
We (the UK) could develop the Camba oilfield. We could frack the shale gas under the Forest of Bowland. But we would rather depend on, and pay for, imported energy.
We’ve all been looking at pictures of Greta Thunberg when we should have been watching Vladimir. Her expertise is in truanting, but he invades countries.
Cambo is only one of many projects.
It attracted the greens because major investor Shell, of all oil & gas companies, panders most to greens (and in return gets nothing but grief).
The operator and 70% stakeholder of Cambo, Siccar Point, will , given current prices, soon get a less fickle partner.
Other Corona Ridge fields, where Shell wasn’t a partner, attracted less publicity.
More here:
https://www.siccarpointenergy.co.uk/our-portfolio/corona-ridge-area
We should be doing the same as China and India, which is burning all the coal we can get because it is cheap and we should start fracking to get the gas. The only sensible alternative is nuclear which is too expensive. We have lost all our skills and cannot even build a nuclear power station. We need to remember that we have to pay to import all the goods we no longer manufacture and food we do not grow and produce. We have to export something to pay for imports. Apparently Russia and Ukraine produce 60% of the world’s grain supplies. It is not only about oil.
The Zero carbon policies are utter nonsense. Carbon dioxide is not increasing temperatures. There is no physics to support it and the empirical evidence shows there is no correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide at any time in Earth’s history. Al Gore told people there was and it was believed without a second thought. In an age of Artificial Intelligence we have Artificial Stupidity (thanks to Thomas Sowell for the quote).
China Is moving rapidly to decarbonise. And of course the physics supports the idea of green house gases. In fact without them the earth would be an ice planet.
I do find it odd that our energy policy should be run to appease a Scandinavian teenager who did not get enough education to advise anyone, but is nonetheless listened to by our elected idiots.
If Greta even mentioned “overpopulation” I would be marching in the streets with her. But she bangs on about me taking an extra flight, driving a car, when the real problem is the simply unsustainable number of people on the planet!
The real issue facing most of the planet in the future (if the present war doesn’t go nuclear), particularly the west, is demographic decline not over population.
The writer implies never opening Nord Stream 2 will reduce European energy dependency. Nord Stream 2 was never intended to deliver more gas. It was simply to re-route gas transport away from Ukraine to weaken Ukraine finances and make Ukraine gas supplies easier to disrupt. Now Russia intends to control Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 is superfluous to Russian strategy. Trumpeting the abandonment of Nord Stream 2 is pure political theatre.
Exactly right – but it allows them to sound serious to domestic audiences whilst the Kremlin will see it as the political theatre you describe
The writer is re-imagining history with his oil summation, and then the Green part – there is no substitute to Carbon fuels at this point – and will not be for much longer than a generation. But that is another story.
As far as the Ukraine thing though – the beginning of this link, minute 1 – 2 is a great summation, made 6 years previous, saying how we have encouraged the Ukrainians to their own doom by encouraging them to think they can fight Russia, And to encourage them to think they may become part of Europe. I heard the Ukrainians have released some huge amount of AK-47s and ammo to all the civilians they gave short training to, men, women, old and young….. I suppose thinking of the place becoming another Afghanistan sort of mire for Russia. My guess is this is a disaster on disaster, and we played a very large part by leading them on. Nigel Farage is expert at this exact scenario, and has been saying that for years – seen on another ‘War Room’ from today.
But I post this link for minute 2 – 6, three TV commercials for various military. Worth watching to understand what is going on…
1) NATO. ‘Diversity is our Strength’ it goes – one of the maddest lines ever coined, and had a dozen, very soft and ultra Liberal types, boast of their diversity as Europeans and Global Citizens, and how this makes them powerful, and together ‘We Are NATO’…
2) Russia, Steel hard, super Buff, men leave their women and games, and pick up their weapons and do combat exercises in a video which would have made a Spartan proud.
3) USA. A cartoon video of a female USA Solider talking of how her Two Mothers taught her to protest for rights, and how proud she was of their marriage, and how they made her the strong woman she now is. (made by the Department of Defense)
The perfect example of why Putin thinks we are utterly decadent and weak..,… If you have 6 minutes it is worth seeing – it … Wow. The best bit is really the end of the NATO one where the group together says ‘Respect Our Needs’ and some dude with his hair in a man-bun smiles proudly…. Just altogether wrong in every possible way….
https://rumble.com/vvs2o3-ep-1663-putin-calls-the-wests-bluff-the-agony-of-ukraine-texas-charges-tran.html
Russia are that tough and buff, and the west and NATO are decadent and weak…so Putin attacks his only neighbours that aren’t part of NATO.
He’s a bully, and nothing to be admired
Yes he is a bully, but his armed forces are way tougher than the West’s lily livered lot.
The focus of armed forces is battle and obeying orders, not addressing workplace culture, diversity, pronouns and the like.
Fact is that even though I don’t like Putin, the Western ladies (I thought leaders, but fingers typed ladies!) are as useless and soft a bunch as Putin could ever wish for. This as his opening.
Are they though? Why are those in the Russian army braver or more disciplined than those in the British Army? Just because Putin is a dictator and the western leaders are much softer in comparison doesn’t mean his soldiers are a level above those of western nations
LvR is correct. The British Army is a mere shadow of its former self and would no doubt ‘run away’ given half a chance it is so riddled with ‘Wokeness’*.
The arrival of women in a combat role is just one of the many detrimental policies that have turned the British Army into a bunch of pathetic Aunt Sallies.
(* Otherwise known as LMF: Lack of Moral Fibre.)
No doubt you have evidence that the army would “run away”? Or that women combatants are detrimental? Otherwise you are grossly and odiously libellous.
The Russians are not distracted by a load of nonsense rules and they are much better kitted out; I suspect they may be more disciplined as well. As for bravery, who knows, let us hope we don’t have to find out
however the Ukrainians are fighting for their very future – and we know how that went for Israel against overwhelming forces – we live in (some) hope…
First Boer War all over again I’m afraid.
Putin’s army of supporters out in the field are no different to the burn-it-all-down iconoclasts and anarchists running amok in America. The only society both groups can contemplate are their very own suffocating ones that they want to stamp on everyone else.
The west is weak and cannot be saved. The west is talking about the fact that men and women don’t exist while the eastern soldiers are taking over.
The west has renounced oil and gas because of a handful of scruffy people who glue themselves to roads. There are no alternatives, just suffering.
You are absolutely spot on with your analysis. But there doesn’t seem to be any hope. According to this site of intellectuals, all of our leaders are bad; they were voted in to power because of something called ‘democracy’. Does this mean that democracy is bad and doesn’t really work?
As you said yesterday, the sheep get to vote and ruin everything. Even worse, the sheep get to NOT vote and ruin everything. Should we now limit democracy to tax payers?
Putting myself at risk of being cancelled 🙂 – but as the Green vote is predominantly female – maybe it’s time for more feminists to orient their influence away from “protest-oriented” politics for a while, and and help sway public opinion back towards the practicality of energy security.
Wasn’t it also the ‘wimmin’s’ vote that got Adolf into power in 1933?
Many bored women (and some men) get caught up in the heady feeling of activism – for a variety of reasons.
When Cape Town was running out of water in 2018, a large grouping of very loud activists turned on the city in an attempt to get the population to vote the ruling party out. This was spectacularly dumb for two reasons.
One, the ruling party in Cape Town has a vastly superior performance (measurable) to the rest of the large municipalities in South Africa.
Two, they blamed the city for running out of water, but the supply of bulk water is a national government responsibility (a different party to the local government). Local government is only responsible for water treatment and reticulation.
We all know how corrupt and inefficient the national government in SA is and these absolute clowns were trying to clear a path to a change of power at local level in Cape Town.
Yes, I think tax payers should be the people that get to vote.
Although that would exclude many women on low pensions, Lesley!
Do they not pay tax?
Do you know what that would mean in the US? I think it’s about 60% of people who pay no federal taxes–maybe more (quick Google search says 61%), and I suspect that of those 60%, a large majority would be COWs (Citizens of Wakanda).
How about that!
I watched that NATO “commercial”–is that real?
Nah, mate–that can’t be real! If it is, Putin will not “respect our needs” but keep rolling into Brussels!
I still don’t think it’s real!
Fracking. Just do it
If anything good does come out of this crucible, it will be the re-awakening of adulthood in the west, the end of these poisonous, ridiculous woke wars and the realization that the price of freedom really is eternal vigilance. It won’t happen among the current generation of boomer-inspired narcissists who are in the ascendant in our culture, but it may blossom among their children, if only out of disgust towards their parents. I’ll take the help any way I can get it.
This situation is so convoluted.
So Russia is provoked by Ukraine claiming to either join NATO or build nuclear weapons (quote Zelenskyy). They invade, and now the West says sanctions will follow. Putin claims that sanctions were going to come anyway (and he’s likely correct), and at the same time he knows that Europe depends on his energy.
While Europe has depended on Russian energy, the Russians never took that opportunity to unfairly raise prices and squeeze out more money from Europe. In fact, the gas was quite cheap. There is no reason to believe attacking Ukraine is somehow a ploy to make Europe energy dependent. We have brought that on ourselves. And yet our media has not skipped a single opportunity to demonize Russia.
Instead of looking to de-escalate tensions and get this thing over with as quickly as possible, so that we will not exacerbate an already existing energy crisis, it seems that the conflict is going to be needlessly prolonged, much to the detriment of all of Europe. No doubt, Putin is going to be blamed once again. And while he’s certainly not innocent in the matter, we are deliberately overlooking the failures of our own so-called “leaders”, that have contributed to this situation likely as much, if not moreso than Russia.
Zelenskyy, and many of our “leaders” are now looking to alienate Russia even more, which is going to drive them right into China’s hands. Taiwan will be next, no doubt. And if Putin is made into the devil anyway, why shouldn’t he just take the rest of Europe as he pleases?
I’m not saying Putin is a saint. But I am saying that we are currently doing our best to make this situation much worse than it would have to be. It would be better to admit that mistakes have been made, stay calm, and start negotiations with Russia. But it seems that our “leaders” as well as our media want war and/or a real energy crisis.
It doesn’t pain me.
More wind turbines = more gas needed.
i.e More intermittency in the grid needs more dispatchable generation to bridge the gaps.
“In any case, there’s a huge green prize to be won here. In the longer-term, the environmental agenda is perfectly aligned with the security agenda.”
Right. This is the ultimate, green rhetorical point: Let’s mess up the logistics of energy markets and thereby artificially induce scarcity and price increases. Then blame the price increases and scarcity on the energy markets. And then press for investment in energy sources that are actually insecure and unreliable.
Here’s an alternative policy proposal: Build the Keystone pipeline and and get out of the business of trying to freeze out natural gas. Going all-electric puts everyone at the mercy of unreliable energy sources and vulnerable transmission grids.
One has to wonder how long it will be until the pipes get blasted in an “accident”. That would complicate matters.
The only question we need to ask ourselves is: ‘Is the Ukraine worth a full scale Nuclear War, or for that matter, the bones of a single British Grenadier’?
However, I must admit it is a blessed relief to hear something else from the damned MSM* other than Covid hysteria, and incessant Green nonsense..
(* Apparently the accepted abbreviation for Main Stream Media.)
From The Goose Fritz by Sergei Lebedev;
The Union fell apart without great bloodshed, as if on its own, and they were corrupted by the ease of the collapse and therefore unprepared for resistance. They thought that all evil had been contained in the USSR and now that there was no Union, things would take the right path; they did not understand that evil was a part of history and that democracy was a system for minimizing evil and not for the triumph of good.
excellent thanks
The Green or renewables dream is a murky world. When we hear so much energy is produced by renewables they don’t tell us most of it is from burning wood chips, made from virgin forest, shipped across the Atlantic. Meanwhile, when you hear “24% of electricity came from wind”, this ignores the fact that most people’s domestic heat requirements come from gas, and most cars run off fossil fuels. It’s a pipe dream. Get drilling, get fracking.
Forget for a moment the word “fragilised” and its unpoetic, unmusical intrusion in an incoherent sentence. That’s only one of Mr. Franklin’s insults to the art of exposition. I think the word “routed” is the one that most doesn’t belong. I’m not sure what brand of secular humanist/collectivist writes British history books, but it’s weird for a guy who probably went to a “good” university to sum up the Vietnam war like that. It’s lazy because he probably knows better and if he doesn’t he should give his diploma(s) back. Everyone knows the US and Vietcong fought to a draw and that Walter Cronkite (the most trusted propagandist in American history) was the real winner of the conflict.
There is a simple answer to the energy issue. Alberta, in Western Canada. It has had its exports restricted by activists – possibly funded by Russia – and Trudeau’s oppressive Canadian federal government.
A good thorough piece highlighting the hard decisions we have to make. Highlights the economic power despots need to have in the first place.
Hardly a word in here about the brave Ukrainians who are fighting for their lives.
How dare they want to be free of the Russian rule that oppressed them for 700 years, and committed genocide against them within living memory.
Which brave Ukrainians you are referring to, the ones who bravely defend the territorial integrity or the one who bravely fight for their right to self-determination?
Bitte?
You must surely realise that there has been a civil war in Ukrain raging for 8 years that culminated in the current situation. A country at war with its two separatist regions. How you view the Ukrainian scenario may be the same as your view of the Irish, Scottish, Bask, Serbian, Kosovan etc. situations. Or it might be fundamentlly different because right now you have near zero information from the DNR/LNR side of the story.
Well, maybe, to an extent, but “Greater Scotland” is not invading England and bombing London.
Of the five examples above, Scotland has been in recent history the least vocal. It is also the one with the most devolved power. Equally London is not shooting missiles at Scotland nor issuing edicts prohibiting Gaelic language at schools and public life.
I don’t quite understand, who is basking?
A civil war that is largely Russias doing, flooding the areas with weapons and soldiers. Stop making excuses for that tyrant.
Did Ukraine give up it’s nukes at Russia’s request? Yes!
Has Ukraine joined NATO? No!
Has Ukraine joined the EU? No!
Has Ukraine attacked Russia, even after it annexed large areas of its land? No!
This is a completely unprovoked invasion by Putin, and none of his excuses make the slightest bit of difference.
There’s a reason all the ex Soviet republics joined NATO, and it’s because of Putins actions towards his neighbours, Georgia Crimea and Ukraine being key examples
On news media I hear a lot of implied, unsaid criticism about the way the west is ditching the Ukraine. Since Covid began I hear a lot of criticism of governments being ‘stupid’ or dictatorial. No leaders are worth anything at all. No parties stand for anything.
This is a site of intellectuals. I see this criticism every day. People vote for governments (or don’t vote, which is the same) but the people must be wrong. So where are the ideas? If the ideas don’t come from the intellectuals, will they come from Twitter?
Quotations about the Ancient Greeks don’t appear to help. We could dig up Winston Churchill and bring him back to life. We could say negative things about David Attenborough – Greta is an easy target.
Allow me to start. Democracy is bad if everyone gets to vote. Only the tax payers should vote. Or remove Democracy completely and replace it with…..
We don’t have Democracy, thank G*d. We have a severely qualified version, known as Parliamentary Democracy which is slightly better.
However It is too late to reverse ‘one man one one vote’, but I heartily agree that those who pay more tax should get more votes. It might also help to curb tax avoidance.
No representation without taxation. A point that I have often returned to, but about which I have not yet decided.
Start reading something about the Ancient Greeks, you will enjoy it it I promise you!
Fracking. Nuclear. More wind power etc. Fusion many years off.
I feel disappointed reading this article in Unherd. Brute imperialism. I do not take sides with Putin, but I find this thinking rather primitively aggressive. I do understand this is part of the history of humankind. It is not the way to progress though. This is not talking from a left “progressive” point of view.
I would love to see the northern countries of the world consume less energy resources and demand less of global sovereignty. If it where to have such a lessen of greed, I strongly believe it could be a starting point to a more balanced and shared living for us humans and our precious home. The earth. I am neither speaking from an “ecological” point of view, that has of recent allied with the big money to “save” us.
I understand this sounds ideal(istic) and may be so. This is how I understand goodness if there is any left in us. Compromise is an other way to arrive there. Nevertheless, the argument about “bad” Putin that “we”, the “just” of the “free” world have to confront, is a pathetic joke.
Remember the Cuban missile crisis and our reaction? How do you think Putin feels about our regime changing meddling in Ukraine, his back door? About our supporting Ukrainian Nazis and thugs with weapons, money, etc? About our bio weapons labs (11) there? About NATO? Supposedly, he has no interest in Ukraine as a country. The strikes have been precise- military, labs, infrastructure. Exactly what we do minus the precision and short duration parts. Russia owns Europe too via energy sources. You think anything will or should be done here? Ukraine made their bed. Let them sleep in it. Finally, anytime the press starts beating the drumbeats of war, we really ought to know better and go the opposite way. Their analysts are mouthpieces for deep state and corporate interests. Nothing more.
The writer makes the key point that no reliance on oil, gas or coal means no reliance on the people you get it from. Typically tyrants. Or they become tyrants because of their fuel power over the rest of us. I didn’t like what OPEC did to the west in the 70s and we’ve had nearly 50 years since then to find another way.
Nuclear, Solar, Wind, Water should be enough for the world to get by. The amount of energy we use is shocking. Dramatic, sustainable reductions are part of a successful transition from fossil fuels to ones that permit sufficient energy security.
“The ruinous cost of commuting undermined confidence in car-dependent housing developments, which crashed the sub-prime mortgage market and triggered the Global Financial Crisis. ” Nonsense. It may have been the trigger, but it was not the cause. The cause was a priori catastrophic central bank and political policy failure. The economy would have easily weathered an oil price spike.
Sensible article and a pleasant change from the moaning of professional terfs.