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Three ways Macron could lose France Victory in the April election is far from guaranteed

A safe pair of hands? (PHILIPPE HUGUEN/AFP via Getty Images)


January 4, 2022   6 mins

In the best of times and the worst of times, France has a habit of guillotining its leaders. No French President has won a second term for 20 years. No French government has been endorsed by the electorate since 1978. Presidents François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac were re-elected in 1988 and 2002, but only after they had lost de facto power in parliamentary elections two and five years before.

Emmanuel Macron, who faces a two-round Presidential election on 10 and 24 April, has a good chance of escaping the tumbril this year. He has been running ahead of the pack with 23-25% of first-round voting intentions for months.

This may appear surprising. It has not, after all, been The Best of Times for Macron. He has had one of the most troubled presidencies of the Fifth Republic. There was the Gilets Jaunes revolt in peripheral and outer suburban France in 2018-9. There was a widespread rebellion against his flagship pension reforms in 2020. The past two years, nearly half his term, have been frozen by the Covid pandemic.

Could the most fickle electorate in the Western world re-elect a president who is detested by millions and who has, partly because of Covid, failed to deliver many of the reforms that he promised in 2017?

Yes, it is possible. Emmanuel Macron remains popular with the well-off and the highly educated, as well as with many young people and with many old people. His approval ratings are the highest of any late-term President since Mitterrand and higher than when the pandemic began.

All the same, the volatility of France’s recent electoral history should not be ignored. Many voters remain undecided. Only just over half are willing to express an opinion to pollsters. And almost one in three has changed their mind in the last three months. A Macron victory may remain the most probable outcome. But there are still three ways he could lose the Élysée…

First scenario: Omicron overwhelms France

France has weathered the pandemic better than many of its neighbours. Its economy has recovered strongly. The French vaccination programme, after a slow start, overtook Britain’s in September. Street protests against the “health pass” flared in August but fizzled out by October.

Macron has taken most of the key anti-Covid decisions himself, alternating between “strike early” and “wait-and-hope”: he has locked down France three times but he has also gambled against scientific advice on a couple of occasions to keep France open or partially open.

Faced with Omicron, he has reverted to “wait-and-hope” mode. France entered the New Year with almost half of its 7,000 acute care beds occupied by Covid patients — well beyond the 3,000 level which had triggered lockdowns in the past. Almost all of these people have been stricken by Delta. Omicron cases are exploding but the impact on severe sickness and mortality is still to be felt.

Nonetheless, France has taken the least draconian anti-Omicron measures of any western European country other than England. New partial lockdowns, curfews, and an extension of the school holidays were all rejected by Macron last week — against scientific and ministerial advice. Like Boris Johnson in Britain, Macron is fearful of the effect on public opinion of a new clampdown. Unlike Johnson, he also has to consider electoral opinion.

In a two-hour television interview in December, Macron made his first big public statement of the campaign while refusing to confirm that he would run. His pitch was revealing: the energetic young revolutionary of 2017 offered himself as a safe-pair-of-hands — a man who had learned much in office and adversity and could now be trusted to do the right thing.

Only ten days after that, Macron took an electoral gamble with the nation’s health. He hopes to harvest the credit for defying scientific advice on Omicron and refusing a curfew or lockdown. Even if the country is forced into a scrambled Omicron lockdown, he might still reap an electoral bonus from being leader of the nation in an emergency.

A presidential election “en plein pandémique”, disrupting campaigning and depressing turnout, is a scenario that Macron’s opponents fear. In the regional elections last summer, every sitting regional president was re-elected.

But all depends on how serious Omicron turns out to be. Even if it is somewhat milder than Delta, the sheer weight of infections could topple an exhausted French hospital system by February or March.

If that happens, Macron would forfeit his right to be considered “a safe pair of hands”. An election in a time of plague might help the President — but it could also destroy him.

Second scenario: The Left fights back

One of the curiosities of this French election has been the implosion of the Left. Seven Left-wing and green candidates are set to receive 27% of the first-round vote. Yet as recently as 2012, 43.75% voters chose Left and green candidates in the first round of a presidential election. Where have all those people gone?

Some are sulking because they see no attractive candidate, while a further chunk of white, working-class voters has migrated to the far-Right. But a substantial section of the moderate Left vote has also gone to Macron. Their support, however, is far from guaranteed.

In the 2017 election, Macron split the centre-right but he also split the centre-left from which, in theory, he came. At the moment, the small print of the polls suggests that one third of Macron’s “base” once voted centre-left. The rest come from the amorphous “centre” or from the pro-European wing of the centre-right.

One of Macron’s great fears for this year was that a plausible centre-left or green candidate might emerge to reclaim his remaining moderate-left vote. It has not happened — yet.

The Socialist candidate, Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, is the theoretical heir of Hollande and Mitterrand. She is currently attracting 3% of voters in Round One. The Green candidate, Yannick Jadot, has around 6%. The Macron camp remains mildly anxious all the same.

Efforts are now underway to thin the field of Left and green candidates by persuading some of them to enter an independent, online “popular primary” later this month. The eloquent, much-loved (on the Left) former justice minister, Christiane Taubira, has indicated she will take part. So has Hidalgo. Could the winner gain a primary “bounce” which would reclaim centre-left votes from Macron?

It is doubtful, but not impossible. If Macron is damaged by a new Covid crisis, he might surrender three or four percentage points to a moderately competitive Left-wing candidate. That would bring him to within striking distance of the trio of far right and centre-right candidates currently squabbling on 13-17% of the vote for one of the two tickets into Round Two.

It is impossible to imagine any Left-wing candidate reaching the second round. A more competitive Left-wing candidate could, however, take enough votes from the President to allow two right-wing candidates to squeeze him out of the run-off.

Third scenario: the power of Pécresse

The French system of two rounds of voting was revived by Charles de Gaulle for a different political age. The intention was to allow a cacophony of choices which would be edited by the voters into a Right-Left, two-candidate final choice. But since the rise of the far-Right and the weakening of the traditional political families of centre-left and centre-right, the two-round system has become a lottery.

In the first round in 2017, Macron came top with 8.65 million votes. The following three candidates were almost neck and neck, with between 7.05 and 7.6 million votes. For the first time, neither of the traditional “governing families” of centre-right or centre-left reached the second round.

Something similar could happen in April. The opinion polls give Macron the same first round support that he had five years ago. Three other candidates are chasing the second spot and the golden ticket into Round Two.

The great difference this time is that two of those candidates are from the far-Right: Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour. The remaining candidate is from the traditional or “Republican” Right: Valérie Pécresse.

Zemmour, after a lightning rise to 18-19% in September’s polls, has slumped to 12-13%. Le Pen, who was neck and neck with Macron before the summer, stumbled and has now recovered a little to around 16%. Meanwhile, Valérie Pécresse zoomed from nowhere to 19-20% after winning the centre-right primary last month. She has now settled back to 16-17%, just ahead of Le Pen.

It is possible — even likely — that this trio will dispute the second place in the run-off round until the first voting day on 10 April. The prize may, once again, be decided by a few thousand votes.

It is also possible that Zemmour will run out of steam. Suggestions in the British media that the essayist and TV pundit could win the presidency were always far-fetched. Zemmour’s negative ratings were higher than Le Pen’s when he started campaigning unofficially in August. They have grown by 8 percentage points since then to -65%.

If the Zemmour vote melts down, it will split fairly evenly between Le Pen and Pécresse — with perhaps slightly more going to Le Pen. The outcome of that three-way battle is crucial for Macron. The opinion polls suggest that Macron would crush Zemmour if they were to confront one another on 24 April, while he would also defeat Le Pen fairly easily — but closer to 55-45% than his 66-34% landslide of 2017.

A Macron-Pécresse second round, however, would be a toss-up. Many, though not all, Left-wing voters have developed (and almost cherish) a visceral hatred for the President. Nor do they have much time for Pécresse. But they would still vote for her in the run-off to evict Macron from the Elysée.

The most recent opinion polls show Macron winning such a battle — but only just and within the margin of error. In such a scenario, a Pécresse victory cannot be ruled out.

Macron’s advisors claim that Pécresse will turn out to be a poor campaigner and that they still expect to face Le Pen in the second round. But this will depend on two unknowns: the progress of Omicron and the manoeuvres and gesticulations of what remains of the French Left.

Here, all the same, is a confident prediction: if Macron is defeated, it will be by Valérie Pécresse. She will either snatch “his” place in the run-off (unlikely) or she will narrowly defeat him there (possible).

For one thing is clear: if the next President is not Macron, she will be a woman — and it won’t be Le Pen.


John Lichfield was Paris correspondent of The Independent for 20 years. Half-English and half-Belgian, he was born in Stoke-on-Trent and lives in Normandy.

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Justin Clark
Justin Clark
2 years ago

<Skips the article and goes straight to the Comments>

Allison Barrows
Allison Barrows
2 years ago
Reply to  Justin Clark

Me too.

Brian Delamere
Brian Delamere
2 years ago
Reply to  Justin Clark

I’m glad I’m no the only one that is finding Unheard articles ever more turgid and unreadable. I very often give up the will to live about a third of the way down most articles. That leaves me with the Comments Section and the ramblings of some pompous f@art. I think I’ll stick with the Daily Mail, they are much more easily triggered over there.

Jean Nutley
Jean Nutley
2 years ago
Reply to  Brian Delamere

Oh thank you! I needed that laugh!

Drahcir Nevarc
Drahcir Nevarc
2 years ago
Reply to  Brian Delamere

I hope you won’t mind my enquiring whether you are by any chance related to the M4 Service Station Leigh which shares your surname, and to which one of my sonnets is addressed:-
Sonnet 75, by Richard Craven
Leigh Delamere, you should have written verse:
a minor, whimsical, Pre-Raphaelite,
or modernist perhaps, but not too terse,
although stooping betimes into the trite.
Now come we in our cars to chew your stodge,
buy petrol – ludicrously over-priced –
take part in orgies in your Travelodge,
and moan about your toilets not being nice.
Leigh Delamere, I’ve been your Porlock too.
I’ve visited your stately pleasure dome
skidmarked your nylon sheets and blocked your loos,
stolen your towels and bvggered off back home.
For these foul desecrations, let this be,
Leigh Delamere, my true apology.

Jean Nutley
Jean Nutley
2 years ago
Reply to  Justin Clark

Ditto.

Mark Walker
Mark Walker
2 years ago
Reply to  Justin Clark

Allow 6 hours of comments for best reading.

Dugan E
Dugan E
2 years ago
Reply to  Justin Clark

I managed a third, even though I have no time for Lichfield and his French erection. Then there’s the rest, creative writers (?) Gender politics….angry people ranting about imaginary issues? To the comments. I had my honeymoon in Paris in the eighties, it’s difficult being romantic in a cloud of French sewage.

Sanja Sulić
Sanja Sulić
2 years ago
Reply to  Justin Clark

Same here!

Katharine Eyre
Katharine Eyre
2 years ago

Many, though not all, Left-wing voters have developed (and almost cherish) a visceral hatred for the President”.
Yes, and they’re not the only ones. I honestly despise the man.

Mark Walker
Mark Walker
2 years ago
Reply to  Katharine Eyre

Could this be the route to oust Macron?
By the end of February, Delta Covid will become Omicron Covid in France, from the patterns in South Africa and England.
If Macron follows his Scientific Advisors (as Sturgeon has done) and locks down hard. Then a large anti Marcon vote will probably happen in Round One.
IF Valérie Pécresse makes it into Round Two and faces an Omicron damaged Macron in Round Two. Then there is a distinct possibility that France will elect her first female President and a Centre Right Republican at that.

Rob Britton
Rob Britton
2 years ago

It seems incredible that the French electorate would even consider giving that ar5e Macron a second stab at the Presidency.

Jacques Rossat
Jacques Rossat
2 years ago
Reply to  Rob Britton

As rightly stated in the, good, column, Macron delivered much more than some of his predecessors. The economy is good, he is at the head of the EU for six months, – what a coincidence… – giving him visibility and respectability. Not a bad starting point.

Mark Walker
Mark Walker
2 years ago
Reply to  Jacques Rossat

Heading the EU could be a poisoned chalice for Macron. He will face a divided EU, without Merkel to smooth matters.

Katharine Eyre
Katharine Eyre
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Walker

Quite…and Macron isn’t a “smoothing” person. More a “let’s smash all the shared china”, for example, by saying NATO is braindead. I think that approach irritated Merkel no end.

Katharine Eyre
Katharine Eyre
2 years ago
Reply to  Jacques Rossat

I’ve got no idea why Macron has any respectability left. The media constantly gives him a free pass in spite of ongoing abominable and ridiculous behaviour, e.g.
1) Withdrawing ambassadors from the US and Australia over the AUKUS deal. Sure, it’s fine to be annoyed over this – but the action taken was way overdone. Tantrum diplomacy isn’t a good look.
2) Not withdrawing the French ambassador from Britain, loudly proclaiming that “Britain just isn’t important enough to warrant a reaction”…having that annoying little terrier Clement Béaune constantly out there saying rude stuff about the UK and then trying to blame the deterioration in Anglo-French relations on the British. Prenez un grip.
3) Sledging the Astra Zeneca vaccine without any kind of scientific basis at all. This was criminal. Imagine Boris Johnson doing something like this – the furore would go on for literally years and yet somehow, Macron is still seen as a statesman.
4) Threatening to cut off Jersey’s electricity because of a fishing spat. Again, maybe France has a right to be annoyed but this is a completely disproportionate reaction and it undermines the EU’s efforts to tell Russia not to weaponise energy.
5) The recent action against Brits coming through the Channel tunnel. Interpreting covid rules so that Brits, as third country citizens, aren’t allowed to transit France to reach their homes in another EU country (unless they lived in France) is another example of abhorrent behaviour – mixing up politics and public health. If travellers are coming from the UK into France, then they all represent the same virus risk and should have to comply with the same rules (i.e. presenting a negative test, proof of vaccination etc.). Neither an EU passport nor a French residency card has any effect whatsoever on the virus.
I could go on.
What an absolute and utter twerp.

Last edited 2 years ago by Katharine Eyre
Drahcir Nevarc
Drahcir Nevarc
2 years ago
Reply to  Katharine Eyre

The one good thing about him is that he has absolutely no tolerance whatsoever for wokeness.

Rob Britton
Rob Britton
2 years ago
Reply to  Jacques Rossat

What I would say to Macron is this: you may consider yourself to be Jupiter but most of what you say and do seems to come straight from Uranus!

Katharine Eyre
Katharine Eyre
2 years ago
Reply to  Rob Britton

Haha, excellent!

AC Harper
AC Harper
2 years ago

I suspect that COVID is the joker in the pack. Not just the OMICRON issue but the gradually increasing resistance to further authoritarian controls (right or wrong). Both Macron and Boris are aware of this pushback and other countries in the EU are experiencing increasingly angry pushback.
Macron could stumble by either requiring further lockdowns following scientific advice or by refusing to impose other measures. Either way his opponents could criticise him. He could be lucky if OMICRON displaces DELTA and the pandemic blows out. No way to choose a President though.

Jean Nutley
Jean Nutley
2 years ago
Reply to  AC Harper

Omicron displaces Macron?! I am waiting for the day when someone calls Macron Micron.

Mark Walker
Mark Walker
2 years ago
Reply to  AC Harper

Here is my take on the Joker:
By the end of February, Delta Covid will become Omicron Covid in France, from the patterns in South Africa and England. If Macron follows his Scientific Advisors (as Sturgeon has done) and locks down hard. Then a large anti Marcon vote will probably happen in Round One.
IF Valérie Pécresse makes it into Round Two and faces an Omicron damaged Macron in Round Two. Then there is a distinct possibility that France will elect her first female President and a Centre Right Republican at that.

Michael K
Michael K
2 years ago

The man loves power and is the incarnation of “never let a crisis go to waste”. He’s just as lacking in vision and leadership as all other current leaders in the European Union. They call it “the swamp” in the US, and it’s really the same thing on our continent. High bureaucrats, often unelected, lust for as much power as they can get, even if only for a short time, so they can rip off as much money as possible from the taxpayer. It’s a free-for-all, and it has been for a good while. Now with COVID, it has become even worse.
Any candidate who is born and bred in the traditional political system will tell you the same thing. That everything is terrible and he or she is the only person who can fix issues. Mysteriously, ever new issues will arise, and they’re never the fault of the current leadership. Proposed solutions are always up-to-date with the newest science, as is evident by the experts who are shown to us on official media channels. Often, these experts don’t even have relevant academic credentials, but they act with such confidence that you just have to believe them. Also, the media wouldn’t pick them if they were incompetent, right?
It’s all a huge rip-off. Like communism, big government doesn’t work. It always ends up pushing the most corrupt and psychopathical into positions of power that require no responsibility.

Nicky Samengo-Turner
Nicky Samengo-Turner
2 years ago

Far Right?…. It never ceases to amaze me how Zemmour, essentially a “Whiggish” right of centre libertarian, perhaps with the courage to state what the large silent majority think, is termed as ” far right”… always the left’s ‘ first arrow of attack”: sitting and chatting to working people in our village in The South of France, at ” the zinc” and sharing a pack of Gitanes sans filtre in various bars, These lovely people’s main issue is being frightened to say what they believe… but Zemmour does…

Dustin Needle
Dustin Needle
2 years ago

“Emmanuel Macron remains popular with the well-off and the highly educated.” Meaning people like John, the author. He ignores the excessive Brit-bashing going on which is obviously designed to woo the nationalists.
Anyway, sadly another mis-headline by elves from the Unherd department of Clickbait. All these candidates play right into Macron’s hands. All he needs to do is get to the run-off and it’s a cakewalk.
Cynically, I don’t think he would be allowed to lose anyway. Given the way the Germans have played the French, i don’t see France staying anchored to the EU without Macron. The prospects of that for the Davos squad would be as bad as second Trump term.

JR Stoker
JR Stoker
2 years ago

So, the conclusion is? It will be Macron. Or Le Pen. No, not Le Pen. Pecresse then. Unless of course it is Zemmour. Unlikely, but you never know. It could be Hidalgo if she can unite the Left. Or the left (small l) may vote for Pecresse in which case it will be her, or possibly Macron.
So there you have it. A clear victory for ….aaaagh. Or possibly not

Jay Gls
Jay Gls
2 years ago

“en pleine pandémie” please

You missed out the evolution of the “pass sanitaire” into a “pass vaccinal” (removing the option for the unvaccinated to obtain a temporary pass through a negative PCR test). I estimate that it is Macron’s least popular move ever and will cost him the second round, since every single candidate other than him is against the change.

Also, I have it from Popular Primary organisers that the whole point of the initiative is to eliminate Taubira’s competition on the left. She was their goal all along.

Last edited 2 years ago by Jay Gls
Mark Walker
Mark Walker
2 years ago
Reply to  Jay Gls

If Macron falls in the First who is your prediction for the Candidates in Round Two.

Jay Gls
Jay Gls
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Walker

Pécresse definitely, possibly versus Mélenchon. Last time he was low in the polls last time and got a score close to getting him through anyway

Last edited 2 years ago by Jay Gls
Jay Gls
Jay Gls
2 years ago

Fourth way Macron could lose : tell the French he wants to “les emmerder” (screw them). I’m not even joking. Look it up.

rbrown
rbrown
2 years ago
Reply to  Jay Gls

Yes, I think this article was a few hours too early. Macron just significantly altered his chances for reelection.

Peter Mott
Peter Mott
2 years ago

Google tells me that only 30% of French have had as third booster shot while 59% of Brits have. So omicron is a larger risk in France than here.

Edward De Beukelaer
Edward De Beukelaer
2 years ago
Reply to  Peter Mott

…that is if you believe in the vaccine. Curves of vaccination levels and ‘covid positive tests levels’ position themselves differently to each other in different countries not allowing any ‘scientific’ conclusion to be drawn between vaccination levels and ‘infection’ levels. The info can be gathered here but it takes some working out to do this. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles

Brian Villanueva
Brian Villanueva
2 years ago

To us Americans, many of your Euro parties seem to differ on policy only at the margins. What functional differences would exist between a Macron or Pécresse government?

You say the race is “supposed to come down” to center-Left vs center-Right candidates, but clearly the center-Left/Right coalitions are missing the policy positions of a huge swath of voters. This blindness is hardly unique to France; Brexit and Trump are both examplars of all major political parties ignoring huge swaths of citizens for decades.

2016: Macron 66% — LePen 34%
2022: Macron 55% — LePen 45% (maybe)

Will French elites wake up before LePen manages to get to 51% in 2028? Or will they still claim the National Front are Nazis when they represent the majority of French voters? (The American Democrats say this about Republicans, but the comparison carries more gravitas in Europe obviously.)

Last edited 2 years ago by Brian Villanueva
Mark Walker
Mark Walker
2 years ago

By the end of February, Delta Covid will become Omicron Covid in France, from the patterns in South Africa and England. If Macron follows his Scientific Advisors (as Sturgeon has done) and locks down hard. Then a large anti Marcon vote will probably happen in Round One.
IF Valérie Pécresse makes it into Round Two and faces an Omicron damaged Macron in Round Two. Then there is a distinct possibility that France will elect her first female President and a Centre Right Republican at that.

Last edited 2 years ago by Mark Walker