I remember there being a “increasing sense that Boris Johnson’s days are numbered” in 2019 (brother resigning, withdrawing whip from 28 MPs, prorogation ruling, extension letter to EU) and in 2020 (Dom Cummings road trip, Tiers, Christmas lockdown). Also earlier his year (curtain gate, DC revelations, NI rise, petrol shortages).
I see the Tories are back up in the polls today. Maybe this sense is only growing among the media class after all.
Withdrawing the whip was a masterstroke by eliminating a vocal and quite senior group of his critics who walked themselves into a trap. I suspect it was Cummings’ idea rather than Boris’s, but far from a sign of impending removal.
It was brutal, clever, and necessary. Two out of three of those point more to DC than Bojo.
Peter Francis
2 years ago
Good and timely article!. Thanks to David Swift for backing up the argument with persuasive statistics. I recently looked up the statistics on rates of home ownership in different countries. Countries with the highest rate of home ownership include Cuba, China and Romania. Countries with the lowest rate of home ownership include Switzerland, Germany and Austria. When it comes to home ownership as a political aspiration, Fidel Castro was a much bigger fan than Margaret Thatcher.
You might have mentioned the non-fire-resistant cladding issue, especially affecting home-owners in London high-rises.. Large numbers of home-owners in London have bought property that is effectively worthless because of these building defects. A party prepared to solve that problem could pick up a lot of support. But that should not detract from your main argument!
Last edited 2 years ago by Peter Francis
Frederick B
2 years ago
“And if combined with another about-turn on cultural issues…a return to economic and cultural liberalism..”
Remember Boris’ remark that the red wall voters had only lent their votes to the Conservatives. If we do get such an about-turn don’t expect those voters to stick with the Tories. That is not to say that they will go back to Labour- they now have a taste for populism and there groups out there who will give it to them.
Christopher Barclay
2 years ago
David Swift dismisses three of the ten seats (30%) that voted most heavily Labour as ‘outliers’. And yet the entire study is based on 10 seats out of the 203 Labour hold (5%) or out of the 326 seats (3%) that Labour would need to win to hold a majority – and yet these 10 seats are not considered to be outliers! If this is the way Labour is analysing voting trends in an age of computing and regression analysis software, then they have little chance.
The 2019 election turned on May promising to increase the proportion of a potential inheritance used to support care of the elderly, depriving many of their only chance of having a home without a debt that dwarfed their earning potential. Housing remains the key to Labour’s chance of winning the next election. Their policy should not be to back either house-ownership or renting. It has to be a policy that aims to reduce the cost of home ownership and renting.
Chris Wheatley
2 years ago
We really need to get away from this never-ending Labour vs Tory scenario. Today, I think you would find that many Tory MPs think Labour and vice versa. Almost all of the socialist magazines are talking about PR because that seems to be the only route to victory. I am not a fan.
For sure, in a modern world we have to find a way of removing the House of Lords and we have to think seriously about our head of state. Do we really want an unelected king with strong opinions?
I agree. If only to goad Parliament into action now and then.
I would need to see someone with a bit of common sense and intelligence before I became convinced that a “First Lady” type scenario was good for the country. Until then,give me the monarchy.
I remember there being a “increasing sense that Boris Johnson’s days are numbered” in 2019 (brother resigning, withdrawing whip from 28 MPs, prorogation ruling, extension letter to EU) and in 2020 (Dom Cummings road trip, Tiers, Christmas lockdown). Also earlier his year (curtain gate, DC revelations, NI rise, petrol shortages).
I see the Tories are back up in the polls today. Maybe this sense is only growing among the media class after all.
Withdrawing the whip was a masterstroke by eliminating a vocal and quite senior group of his critics who walked themselves into a trap. I suspect it was Cummings’ idea rather than Boris’s, but far from a sign of impending removal.
It was brutal, clever, and necessary. Two out of three of those point more to DC than Bojo.
Good and timely article!. Thanks to David Swift for backing up the argument with persuasive statistics. I recently looked up the statistics on rates of home ownership in different countries. Countries with the highest rate of home ownership include Cuba, China and Romania. Countries with the lowest rate of home ownership include Switzerland, Germany and Austria. When it comes to home ownership as a political aspiration, Fidel Castro was a much bigger fan than Margaret Thatcher.
You might have mentioned the non-fire-resistant cladding issue, especially affecting home-owners in London high-rises.. Large numbers of home-owners in London have bought property that is effectively worthless because of these building defects. A party prepared to solve that problem could pick up a lot of support. But that should not detract from your main argument!
“And if combined with another about-turn on cultural issues…a return to economic and cultural liberalism..”
Remember Boris’ remark that the red wall voters had only lent their votes to the Conservatives. If we do get such an about-turn don’t expect those voters to stick with the Tories. That is not to say that they will go back to Labour- they now have a taste for populism and there groups out there who will give it to them.
David Swift dismisses three of the ten seats (30%) that voted most heavily Labour as ‘outliers’. And yet the entire study is based on 10 seats out of the 203 Labour hold (5%) or out of the 326 seats (3%) that Labour would need to win to hold a majority – and yet these 10 seats are not considered to be outliers! If this is the way Labour is analysing voting trends in an age of computing and regression analysis software, then they have little chance.
The 2019 election turned on May promising to increase the proportion of a potential inheritance used to support care of the elderly, depriving many of their only chance of having a home without a debt that dwarfed their earning potential. Housing remains the key to Labour’s chance of winning the next election. Their policy should not be to back either house-ownership or renting. It has to be a policy that aims to reduce the cost of home ownership and renting.
We really need to get away from this never-ending Labour vs Tory scenario. Today, I think you would find that many Tory MPs think Labour and vice versa. Almost all of the socialist magazines are talking about PR because that seems to be the only route to victory. I am not a fan.
For sure, in a modern world we have to find a way of removing the House of Lords and we have to think seriously about our head of state. Do we really want an unelected king with strong opinions?
In answer to your final question, Yes.
I agree. If only to goad Parliament into action now and then.
I would need to see someone with a bit of common sense and intelligence before I became convinced that a “First Lady” type scenario was good for the country. Until then,give me the monarchy.