With one exception (1970), no government since 1945 that went into an election with a majority has lost to an opposition that gained its own; but I am also pretty sure that no government polling this high in mid-term has ever even lost its majority at the subsequent GE.
The Conservatives’ numbers are still like Thatcher’s post-Falklands or Blair’s in about 2000, and that’s before the return of post-COVID normality.
Furthermore, if Labour had an earthly of recovering, a whiff of it would be in evidence already. They’d be driving out their loonies, they’d have a range of plausible sounding policies and they’d have a credible leader and senior spokesmen. None of this in place. They’re still an anti-semitic crypto-Marxist rabble who think the electorate got it wrong last time and just need to be shouted at and hated to be brought back into line; and they’re presided over (you can’t really say led) by a completely empty suit, a hole in the air.
Labour’s focus should be on survival in 2023 followed by revival by, maybe, around 2035.
Prashant Kotak
2 years ago
I appreciate the left is quite optimistic right now about supplanting the Tories in the Blue Wall even as the Red Wall carries on crumbling – but that is a very typical, left, jam tomorrow mentality. In contrast the right will *always* take a good result today, over fretting about a hypothetical bad result tomorrow.
And in truth, socially and culturally liberal young urbanites moving from cities into spacier accommodation in the so-called Blue Wall should make the Tories absolutely ecstatic. It means yet another split-left dynamic – the woke young in the Blue Wall switching promiscuously between supporting the LibDems and Labour and increasingly the Greens. The left vote will likely eventually consolidate on one party but it will take years. Meanwhile, there is years of free entertainment on tap as we watch the three left parties sock it to each other, while we scoff the popcorn. The Blue Wall LibDems especially, are streetwise with a lot of dirty tricks up their sleeves, so I don’t expect Labour to make any easy gains there without a vicious fight – and the Greens will siphon support from both going forwards.
Meanwhile, the original older conservative inhabitants will still be there, they have gone nowhere, except continuing to maintain hegemony in their traditional strongholds.
I think this a good analysis – there is a distinct possibility that the Tories will get a greater number of seats – despite getting a reduced share of the vote.
David McDowell
2 years ago
Sensible commentary.
Al M
2 years ago
“Blue Wall’s decidedly liberal views on cultural questions (for instance, 66% of voters polled by YouGov agree that a wide variety of different ethnic backgrounds and cultures is part of British culture“
Well, that does perhaps indicate that the UK is a tolerant place. It doesn’t prove that people are happy with divisive identity politics and the associated activism which is currently prominent in the institutions that underpin civic society.
…in the seats in question, it mostly means “we like cheap nannies, and Eastern European builders willing to work ‘6 twelves’ to get our extension finished, whilst living in the van…and that chi-chi little Syrian ‘mateam’ that just opened in the local market town…”
Brendan Newport
2 years ago
Which is why it may be a little disappointing to those investing in YouGov’s latest polling to find that, at least in the seats it surveyed, support for the Lib Dems appears to have dropped (from 24% down to 18%) since the general election.
Ed’s snag is that just as the Tories have bared their throat to a LibDem resurgence, the LibDems themselves have decided that they absolutely don’t want the vote of 52% of the voting electorate; that is, women.
Jo Swinson actively campaigned to persuade female voters to not vote LibDem in the 2019 General Election, typified by two car-crash radio interviews. Davey himself has cemented the misogynistic streak in his Party, which is echoed in The Greens and Labour. One of the great political science conundrums of modern times is why the left-of-centre is just so determined to decline the female vote.
So a drop of 6% since 2019 isn’t really too surprising. What is surprising is the unwillingness of Davey to do anything about it.
Am I right that you are referring to support for the “trans activists” over traditional feminists ?
So misogyny not emanating from men ?
If so, I can’t agree more with your view.
Last edited 2 years ago by Ian Barton
Rob Britton
2 years ago
The way the conservatives are going, with Boris Johnson at the helm, they will win the next election but lose their majority.
Antony Hirst
2 years ago
I don’t think people will bother voting anymore. This government has shown how dangerous governments are. Given that there is no viable alternative, one may as well scrawl an anarchist symbol across the ballot and not give anyone a mandate.
Alan Hawkes
2 years ago
“… 47% think the Government is taking the country in the wrong direction..”
It is hard to be sure that the government is taking the country in any direction. My impression is of a boat full of people who have given up rowing for bailing out water.
andrew harman
2 years ago
Is there an error in the article? I think Labour currently holds all the seats in Bristol so it cannot gain any.
With one exception (1970), no government since 1945 that went into an election with a majority has lost to an opposition that gained its own; but I am also pretty sure that no government polling this high in mid-term has ever even lost its majority at the subsequent GE.
The Conservatives’ numbers are still like Thatcher’s post-Falklands or Blair’s in about 2000, and that’s before the return of post-COVID normality.
Furthermore, if Labour had an earthly of recovering, a whiff of it would be in evidence already. They’d be driving out their loonies, they’d have a range of plausible sounding policies and they’d have a credible leader and senior spokesmen. None of this in place. They’re still an anti-semitic crypto-Marxist rabble who think the electorate got it wrong last time and just need to be shouted at and hated to be brought back into line; and they’re presided over (you can’t really say led) by a completely empty suit, a hole in the air.
Labour’s focus should be on survival in 2023 followed by revival by, maybe, around 2035.
I appreciate the left is quite optimistic right now about supplanting the Tories in the Blue Wall even as the Red Wall carries on crumbling – but that is a very typical, left, jam tomorrow mentality. In contrast the right will *always* take a good result today, over fretting about a hypothetical bad result tomorrow.
And in truth, socially and culturally liberal young urbanites moving from cities into spacier accommodation in the so-called Blue Wall should make the Tories absolutely ecstatic. It means yet another split-left dynamic – the woke young in the Blue Wall switching promiscuously between supporting the LibDems and Labour and increasingly the Greens. The left vote will likely eventually consolidate on one party but it will take years. Meanwhile, there is years of free entertainment on tap as we watch the three left parties sock it to each other, while we scoff the popcorn. The Blue Wall LibDems especially, are streetwise with a lot of dirty tricks up their sleeves, so I don’t expect Labour to make any easy gains there without a vicious fight – and the Greens will siphon support from both going forwards.
Meanwhile, the original older conservative inhabitants will still be there, they have gone nowhere, except continuing to maintain hegemony in their traditional strongholds.
I think this a good analysis – there is a distinct possibility that the Tories will get a greater number of seats – despite getting a reduced share of the vote.
Sensible commentary.
“Blue Wall’s decidedly liberal views on cultural questions (for instance, 66% of voters polled by YouGov agree that a wide variety of different ethnic backgrounds and cultures is part of British culture“
Well, that does perhaps indicate that the UK is a tolerant place. It doesn’t prove that people are happy with divisive identity politics and the associated activism which is currently prominent in the institutions that underpin civic society.
But a decent analysis overall.
…in the seats in question, it mostly means “we like cheap nannies, and Eastern European builders willing to work ‘6 twelves’ to get our extension finished, whilst living in the van…and that chi-chi little Syrian ‘mateam’ that just opened in the local market town…”
Which is why it may be a little disappointing to those investing in YouGov’s latest polling to find that, at least in the seats it surveyed, support for the Lib Dems appears to have dropped (from 24% down to 18%) since the general election.
Ed’s snag is that just as the Tories have bared their throat to a LibDem resurgence, the LibDems themselves have decided that they absolutely don’t want the vote of 52% of the voting electorate; that is, women.
Jo Swinson actively campaigned to persuade female voters to not vote LibDem in the 2019 General Election, typified by two car-crash radio interviews. Davey himself has cemented the misogynistic streak in his Party, which is echoed in The Greens and Labour. One of the great political science conundrums of modern times is why the left-of-centre is just so determined to decline the female vote.
So a drop of 6% since 2019 isn’t really too surprising. What is surprising is the unwillingness of Davey to do anything about it.
Am I right that you are referring to support for the “trans activists” over traditional feminists ?
So misogyny not emanating from men ?
If so, I can’t agree more with your view.
The way the conservatives are going, with Boris Johnson at the helm, they will win the next election but lose their majority.
I don’t think people will bother voting anymore. This government has shown how dangerous governments are. Given that there is no viable alternative, one may as well scrawl an anarchist symbol across the ballot and not give anyone a mandate.
“… 47% think the Government is taking the country in the wrong direction..”
It is hard to be sure that the government is taking the country in any direction. My impression is of a boat full of people who have given up rowing for bailing out water.
Is there an error in the article? I think Labour currently holds all the seats in Bristol so it cannot gain any.