A subtle and accurate analysis of what is happening here in France (in my opinion).
Simon Denis
2 years ago
The trouble for the right at the moment is that the voters themselves are torn. On the one hand they would like a serious, well argued, practical case for government; on the other they want a fiery, heretical, absolute repudiation of the lies which the left has rammed down our throats for the last thirty years. The split lies within conservative voters as well as among them. Of course, this is, in part, the result the left is seeking. It hopes to stir up reactions of anger which it can then use as “evidence” for its endlessly provocative libels. All of which leads me to consider that only Zemmour has the mix of force and subtlety required to combine anger with clarity and protect both from distortion.
“On the one hand they would like a serious, well argued, practical case for government; on the other they want a fiery, heretical, absolute repudiation of the lies which the left has rammed down our throats for the last thirty years” I don’t see these two desiderata as incompatible.
They are not; but the messaging has to embrace cautious and timid conservatives along with convinced nationalists; and it terms of tone, well argued, practical cases differ from fiery repudiations – the first leaves the nationalists bored whilst the second scares the conservatives away. This has been the right’s campaigning and rhetorical problem for the last twenty to thirty years. It explains the continuing distance between the French Republicans and Mme Le Pen. It explains Mme Le Pen’s quest for respectability and the deleterious effect this has had on her core support. And as a British instance, you will recall the queasy posters from the 05 election – “It’s not racist to want to bring down immigration” – a classic attempt to square the rhetorical circle. For years, the conservative side has benefited from a fatigued, nationalist shrug, but as the cultural screw is twisted harder, as woke goes on and double standards proliferate, it may well be that the timid rally to the fiery – but will they do so in time?
Marine le Pen’s only chance of winning next year is to pledge Frexit. Her attempts to “detoxify” her party has simply turned it into yet another establishment party.
To judge by my own circle, there is a problem of social class or respectability. Many of my family and friends agree with Marine Le Pen on many issues but they consider it beneath them to vote for her (or at least to admit to it). To them, she is not respectable so they cannot publicly support her. For the same reason, she fails at the second round because she is not the image that many people want for France in the world. Macron is the opposite – they may not like him but he has the right social profile. The big achievement of MLP, in my opinion, is to shift the political centre of gravity and make certain conversations possible.
JPM – useful to get the opinion of someone who is experiencing all this. I learnt a lot about the background of the Le Pens from this article. As an observer, I would agree with your final comment.
I’m fascinated to watch what is happening politically in France and Italy, also Germany if Merkel actually does leave the stage. How will this affect the EU’s direction of travel?
I think FRexit/ITexit, and the Euro issues that flow with it, are totally off the menu for the foreseeable future. However I do see a cultural alliance forming across Italy/Visegrad to protect traditional European values/culture. A centre-right France could well pivot in that direction as well.
The reason I believe this is because the centre/right across Europe will have witnessed what Britain has gone through internally post-EU referendum, which demonstrate that the forces of “Remain” continue regardless of democratic vote. Throw in an additional complexity like currency change, and you’ll spend all political energy fire-fighting. You’ll end up achieving nothing.
Some people will dismiss this is as “softening”. I would call it learning from the experience of others and evolving.
I think MLP has reached this pragmatic point in her politics. One might say that in doing so she forges a direction of travel for Maréchal/Zemmour that might be achievable in her own lifetime. Her 93 year old father does not, possibly never has, had to confront the consequences of implementing his ideas.
A subtle and accurate analysis of what is happening here in France (in my opinion).
The trouble for the right at the moment is that the voters themselves are torn. On the one hand they would like a serious, well argued, practical case for government; on the other they want a fiery, heretical, absolute repudiation of the lies which the left has rammed down our throats for the last thirty years. The split lies within conservative voters as well as among them. Of course, this is, in part, the result the left is seeking. It hopes to stir up reactions of anger which it can then use as “evidence” for its endlessly provocative libels. All of which leads me to consider that only Zemmour has the mix of force and subtlety required to combine anger with clarity and protect both from distortion.
“On the one hand they would like a serious, well argued, practical case for government; on the other they want a fiery, heretical, absolute repudiation of the lies which the left has rammed down our throats for the last thirty years”
I don’t see these two desiderata as incompatible.
They are not; but the messaging has to embrace cautious and timid conservatives along with convinced nationalists; and it terms of tone, well argued, practical cases differ from fiery repudiations – the first leaves the nationalists bored whilst the second scares the conservatives away. This has been the right’s campaigning and rhetorical problem for the last twenty to thirty years. It explains the continuing distance between the French Republicans and Mme Le Pen. It explains Mme Le Pen’s quest for respectability and the deleterious effect this has had on her core support. And as a British instance, you will recall the queasy posters from the 05 election – “It’s not racist to want to bring down immigration” – a classic attempt to square the rhetorical circle. For years, the conservative side has benefited from a fatigued, nationalist shrug, but as the cultural screw is twisted harder, as woke goes on and double standards proliferate, it may well be that the timid rally to the fiery – but will they do so in time?
Yes, you’re right. Well done persuading me.
Marine le Pen’s only chance of winning next year is to pledge Frexit. Her attempts to “detoxify” her party has simply turned it into yet another establishment party.
To judge by my own circle, there is a problem of social class or respectability. Many of my family and friends agree with Marine Le Pen on many issues but they consider it beneath them to vote for her (or at least to admit to it). To them, she is not respectable so they cannot publicly support her. For the same reason, she fails at the second round because she is not the image that many people want for France in the world. Macron is the opposite – they may not like him but he has the right social profile. The big achievement of MLP, in my opinion, is to shift the political centre of gravity and make certain conversations possible.
JPM – useful to get the opinion of someone who is experiencing all this. I learnt a lot about the background of the Le Pens from this article. As an observer, I would agree with your final comment.
I’m fascinated to watch what is happening politically in France and Italy, also Germany if Merkel actually does leave the stage. How will this affect the EU’s direction of travel?
I think FRexit/ITexit, and the Euro issues that flow with it, are totally off the menu for the foreseeable future. However I do see a cultural alliance forming across Italy/Visegrad to protect traditional European values/culture. A centre-right France could well pivot in that direction as well.
The reason I believe this is because the centre/right across Europe will have witnessed what Britain has gone through internally post-EU referendum, which demonstrate that the forces of “Remain” continue regardless of democratic vote. Throw in an additional complexity like currency change, and you’ll spend all political energy fire-fighting. You’ll end up achieving nothing.
Some people will dismiss this is as “softening”. I would call it learning from the experience of others and evolving.
I think MLP has reached this pragmatic point in her politics. One might say that in doing so she forges a direction of travel for Maréchal/Zemmour that might be achievable in her own lifetime. Her 93 year old father does not, possibly never has, had to confront the consequences of implementing his ideas.
Hmm…maybe but I don’t see Zemmour being successful. Too flamboyant, too provocative, and probably not sober enough to be presidential.
A typically informative, beautifully written piece by Moutet.
Going mainstream will kill you every time.