Have about 15 million upvotes for this Outdoor masks are compulsory: a measure about as scientifically useful as throwing your shoes at the sky to dislodge the clouds
Yes, I too thought that was a very good line. Of course, it won’t stop governments around the world making it mandatory, because always and everywhere we are ruled by the insane.
Lesley van Reenen
3 years ago
I must take issue here. The only real lockdown in South Africa is and has been one of freedom of movement, lockdown of middle classes and the economy. By far the bulk of the population could not follow lockdown protocols because of living conditions. The country was initially locked down far too early and even with the draconian lockdown, the virus did what viruses do… it gathered momentum and followed an epidemic curve. The only thing now in doubt is the seasonality of these curves and what makes some countries seasonal and others not…. something that Panda is now looking at
I was going to say that this was an unusually informative and entertaining piece by GH’s standards, but you appear to have instantly refuted much of his argument.
Well, I live here! The only people supporting the lockdowns are quite a lot of vocal people with jobs/money in the bank, food on the table and the inability to read and think critically about the impact of lockdowns on livelihoods and futures. More and more people are being pushed into poverty and uncertainty on a daily basis and it is a terrible thing to witness.
I am not against certain targetted measures, but lockdowns – no. Further destruction of the economy – no. The government started with good intentions and since then have bumbled their way from one stupid decision to another – all the while stealing the Covid relief money which would have aided targetted measures.
‘The only people supporting the lockdowns are quite a lot of vocal people with jobs/money in the bank, food on the table and the inability to read and think critically about the impact of lockdowns on livelihoods and futures.’
No different to the UK, US and everywhere else. I happen to be one of those with enough money in the bank to last for years, and a soaring share portfolio. Moreover, I can work from home . However, I have the ability to read and think critically about the impact of these vicious and (largely) unnecessary lockdowns on millions of other people.
True, but even more immoral and stupid here because you can immediately witness the effect of the lockdowns and not have to ‘figure out’ that the health of the economy eventually affects the health of the people.
He also seemed to leave out that the government using covid as an excuse, loaned about £25 billion from international institutions and then proceeded to allow all their friends and family to loot the money while the population was under lock down and the Democratic processes, checks and balances of the country were suspended for the pandemic.
Also add to the government banning of both cigarettes and alcohol in the first lock down which lead to a black market, which was largely controlled and operated by the government and their crony’s while removing much needed taxes from the revenue services .. South Africa is basically run by a mafia that really couldn’t give a balls bag about its population and has used the covid crisis as a non stop money making gimmick that all South Africans are going to pay for in the end..
typical limousine liberals are always more impressed with words than the outcome..Of course been a Vice reporter he must have nearly wet himself with excitement when he heard that most of the business rescue and funds that were actually handed out to businesses were handed out on a racial ownership basis which excluded the white and Indian minorities letting those businesses fail, and also opening another looting opportunity for the ANC big whigs and their families, of those minorities businesses class suicided for social engineering purposes 70-90% of their employees were black..
Also, I’m not sure the reference to a “Mutant Strain” is particularly helpful. This term is starting to appear across MSM but I have yet to see an article referencing the scientific evidence on which it is based. Interesting that the New & Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) met on 18 Dec 2020, attended by Neil Ferguson among others, and talked up the dangers of the new UK variant without providing experimental data to support the claims. The weakness of NERVTAG’s assertions have been exposed by Vincent Racaniello in his YouTube video “SARS-CoV-2 UK variant: Does it matter?” on 21 December 2020. I recommend anyone with 25 mins spare to watch it or, if short on time, watch from 15 mins in.
It’s important because language matters. “Mutant Strain” sounds frightening – and I’m sure our Governments would not want us to be frightened.
“Seasonality” of a respiratory disease looks different for regions with different climates, as observed in the original Hope-Simpson discussion. In the zones nearer the tropics, with less pronounced seasonal variations, periodicity, or “waves,” are still seen, but are spaced and shaped differently. This is already seen with COVID in e.g. the sunbelt of the US v/s the northern states.
Murray Clarke
3 years ago
COVID doesn’t choose victims at random and the horse has well and truly bolted. I can’t understand why we are failing to protect the very clear subset of society at risk while throwing a blanket over everyone and failing at that too!!
COVID doesn’t choose victims at random, it’s an airborne respiratory disease, randomness is the only way you can get it
Lindsay Gatward
3 years ago
So obvious that Masks and Lockdown save no lives because the results are the same in the end regardless of the severity or absence of imposition – But also obvious they are an absolute delight to authoritarians everywhere.
J J
3 years ago
This article makes the mistake of believing the critical factor in determining infection and death rates is government action. Its not. They key factors are the proportion of over 60s, population density, cross immunity from prior infections, mobility patterns, pollution levels and Vitamin D levels (sun exposure and fish diets).
Africa is not impacted by most of these factors, Europe and particularly the UK is heavily impacted.
The UK has higher rates of dementia than most African countries. Is that because African states have more decisive action and better policies in relation to dementia than the UK (and France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands and Italy)?
I’m afraid we are again indulging in national masochism. Not only are we all racist, sexist, greedy, evil capitalist pigs. But it turns out we are also ravingly incompetent and indecisive.
Spot on! Every dog has his day and it is blatantly obvious that ‘we’ have had ours!
For myself, it was fun, for my grandchildren not so.
Joerg Beringer
3 years ago
Raving about South Africa’s response might be justified, if close by Tanzania did not exist.
Jean Redpath
3 years ago
South Africa shrugs at the mutant strain? Really? That’s not the reality. The reality is that 2.4 million jobs were lost in the first hard lockdown. Universities are closed, having struggled through with with online instruction from March until December, and will only open in April. Schools were closed and when they opened, children only attended only a few days a week. Final school year results – usually available in December – are still pending.
The barely surviving tourism sector which was raising its head has been shattered by the recent closures of all beaches, rivers, water bodies in hotspots (which are mostly in tourist areas) in the middle of summer, and most restaurants are not bothering to open with a 9pm-6am curfew and no alcohol sales. People are jobless and going hungry. There is no additional employment via hand sanitizer as suggested – this is simply the security guard who now also wields sanitizer. Businesses are surviving only by retrenching large numbers of staff.
The reality is that the streets are relatively empty of the middle classes because so many more (of the middle class) are getting sick than happened in the “1st wave”. Delayed economic impacts are starting now also being felt by this class.
The meme of “low Africa deaths” in the first wave … the rate of death per 100 000 in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, was higher than that recorded in New York City. Nothing low about that. In most parts of Africa, we will never know the true extent of cases and deaths, so to hypothesize about “low” deaths makes no sense.
Even in relatively developed South Africa, the death data is showing far greater number of deaths than Covid-deaths and since they follow the characteristic rise and fall, it seems likely that a significant proportion are Covid-related.
Having said that, the rise and fall is only a fraction of the 200 000-odd additional deaths per year South Africa saw through untreated HIV/AIDS in the mid-2000s.
In places like the DRC, South Sudan, Malawi, it is possible that the virus may sweep through, and … if you didn’t know to look for it, you might not have seen it (yet)?
The natural death data seems to show a 4-month pause between start and finish of the “waves” per area. Some areas are already done with their 2nd wave. Others, unfortunately some of the most populous areas, are only getting started. Yet so far hospitals in 2nd wave areas seem to have managed.
It is indeed interesting that the country was a few weeks behind Europe, and now seems to be a few weeks ahead, in terms of waves. Without more granular data it is hard to know what is a 2nd wave and what is a delayed 1st wave.
There have been court cases against the most nonsensical of restrictions, some lost, some won, including the ban on tobacco sales. The activist left has and will make a noise about lack of plans for vaccines and perhaps about human rights abuses caused by overzealous enforcement, but is unlikely to challenge lockdown orthodoxy.
Jack Daniels
3 years ago
Could it be that this country is suddenly falling into a mesmerism of law abiding? That something coltish is being tamed? “- probably not, there were 2 beheadings in broad daylight last week and the murder and rape rate are higher than they have ever been( probably the extra 3 million people who lost jobs during lockdown one got a bit of time on their hands), the real scary part is that we always thought that coltish behavior would protect us from a malevolent government, turns out that our people are as weak and bowed in front of their corrupt government as their neighbors in Zimbabwe are to ZANUPF..
Peter KE
3 years ago
Interesting article, especially the fatality levels even if it is a younger population.
My detailed comment on this was flagged as spam and then entirely removed when I identified it as “not spam.”
During the first peak, more people per 100 000 died in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, of known Covid than in New York city during their first peak. We only know this because this area is relatively well-serviced in terms of testing and capable health facilities – and people willing to seek treatment. The “meme” of low African deaths is based on the data only – which depends on states being able to identify and count Covid deaths.
It is entirely possible that Covid might cause many deaths yet pass through undetected in places where testing and health facilities are very poor. Indeed in Malawi people are talking about old people dying, yet the official data counts only a few Covid deaths.
nick harman
3 years ago
We may be in a bit of a mess here in the UK, but few people are listening to Ivor Cummins who is nothing but a snake oil salesman who usually preys on corporations.
Have about 15 million upvotes for this Outdoor masks are compulsory: a measure about as scientifically useful as throwing your shoes at the sky to dislodge the clouds
Yes, I too thought that was a very good line. Of course, it won’t stop governments around the world making it mandatory, because always and everywhere we are ruled by the insane.
I must take issue here. The only real lockdown in South Africa is and has been one of freedom of movement, lockdown of middle classes and the economy. By far the bulk of the population could not follow lockdown protocols because of living conditions. The country was initially locked down far too early and even with the draconian lockdown, the virus did what viruses do… it gathered momentum and followed an epidemic curve. The only thing now in doubt is the seasonality of these curves and what makes some countries seasonal and others not…. something that Panda is now looking at
I was going to say that this was an unusually informative and entertaining piece by GH’s standards, but you appear to have instantly refuted much of his argument.
Well, I live here! The only people supporting the lockdowns are quite a lot of vocal people with jobs/money in the bank, food on the table and the inability to read and think critically about the impact of lockdowns on livelihoods and futures. More and more people are being pushed into poverty and uncertainty on a daily basis and it is a terrible thing to witness.
I am not against certain targetted measures, but lockdowns – no. Further destruction of the economy – no. The government started with good intentions and since then have bumbled their way from one stupid decision to another – all the while stealing the Covid relief money which would have aided targetted measures.
‘The only people supporting the lockdowns are quite a lot of vocal people with jobs/money in the bank, food on the table and the inability to read and think critically about the impact of lockdowns on livelihoods and futures.’
No different to the UK, US and everywhere else. I happen to be one of those with enough money in the bank to last for years, and a soaring share portfolio. Moreover, I can work from home . However, I have the ability to read and think critically about the impact of these vicious and (largely) unnecessary lockdowns on millions of other people.
True, but even more immoral and stupid here because you can immediately witness the effect of the lockdowns and not have to ‘figure out’ that the health of the economy eventually affects the health of the people.
He also seemed to leave out that the government using covid as an excuse, loaned about £25 billion from international institutions and then proceeded to allow all their friends and family to loot the money while the population was under lock down and the Democratic processes, checks and balances of the country were suspended for the pandemic.
Also add to the government banning of both cigarettes and alcohol in the first lock down which lead to a black market, which was largely controlled and operated by the government and their crony’s while removing much needed taxes from the revenue services .. South Africa is basically run by a mafia that really couldn’t give a balls bag about its population and has used the covid crisis as a non stop money making gimmick that all South Africans are going to pay for in the end..
typical limousine liberals are always more impressed with words than the outcome..Of course been a Vice reporter he must have nearly wet himself with excitement when he heard that most of the business rescue and funds that were actually handed out to businesses were handed out on a racial ownership basis which excluded the white and Indian minorities letting those businesses fail, and also opening another looting opportunity for the ANC big whigs and their families, of those minorities businesses class suicided for social engineering purposes 70-90% of their employees were black..
Also, I’m not sure the reference to a “Mutant Strain” is particularly helpful. This term is starting to appear across MSM but I have yet to see an article referencing the scientific evidence on which it is based. Interesting that the New & Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) met on 18 Dec 2020, attended by Neil Ferguson among others, and talked up the dangers of the new UK variant without providing experimental data to support the claims. The weakness of NERVTAG’s assertions have been exposed by Vincent Racaniello in his YouTube video “SARS-CoV-2 UK variant: Does it matter?” on 21 December 2020. I recommend anyone with 25 mins spare to watch it or, if short on time, watch from 15 mins in.
It’s important because language matters. “Mutant Strain” sounds frightening – and I’m sure our Governments would not want us to be frightened.
“Seasonality” of a respiratory disease looks different for regions with different climates, as observed in the original Hope-Simpson discussion. In the zones nearer the tropics, with less pronounced seasonal variations, periodicity, or “waves,” are still seen, but are spaced and shaped differently. This is already seen with COVID in e.g. the sunbelt of the US v/s the northern states.
COVID doesn’t choose victims at random and the horse has well and truly bolted. I can’t understand why we are failing to protect the very clear subset of society at risk while throwing a blanket over everyone and failing at that too!!
COVID doesn’t choose victims at random, it’s an airborne respiratory disease, randomness is the only way you can get it
So obvious that Masks and Lockdown save no lives because the results are the same in the end regardless of the severity or absence of imposition – But also obvious they are an absolute delight to authoritarians everywhere.
This article makes the mistake of believing the critical factor in determining infection and death rates is government action. Its not. They key factors are the proportion of over 60s, population density, cross immunity from prior infections, mobility patterns, pollution levels and Vitamin D levels (sun exposure and fish diets).
Africa is not impacted by most of these factors, Europe and particularly the UK is heavily impacted.
The UK has higher rates of dementia than most African countries. Is that because African states have more decisive action and better policies in relation to dementia than the UK (and France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands and Italy)?
I’m afraid we are again indulging in national masochism. Not only are we all racist, sexist, greedy, evil capitalist pigs. But it turns out we are also ravingly incompetent and indecisive.
Spot on! Every dog has his day and it is blatantly obvious that ‘we’ have had ours!
For myself, it was fun, for my grandchildren not so.
Raving about South Africa’s response might be justified, if close by Tanzania did not exist.
South Africa shrugs at the mutant strain? Really? That’s not the reality. The reality is that 2.4 million jobs were lost in the first hard lockdown. Universities are closed, having struggled through with with online instruction from March until December, and will only open in April. Schools were closed and when they opened, children only attended only a few days a week. Final school year results – usually available in December – are still pending.
The barely surviving tourism sector which was raising its head has been shattered by the recent closures of all beaches, rivers, water bodies in hotspots (which are mostly in tourist areas) in the middle of summer, and most restaurants are not bothering to open with a 9pm-6am curfew and no alcohol sales. People are jobless and going hungry. There is no additional employment via hand sanitizer as suggested – this is simply the security guard who now also wields sanitizer. Businesses are surviving only by retrenching large numbers of staff.
The reality is that the streets are relatively empty of the middle classes because so many more (of the middle class) are getting sick than happened in the “1st wave”. Delayed economic impacts are starting now also being felt by this class.
The meme of “low Africa deaths” in the first wave … the rate of death per 100 000 in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, was higher than that recorded in New York City. Nothing low about that. In most parts of Africa, we will never know the true extent of cases and deaths, so to hypothesize about “low” deaths makes no sense.
Even in relatively developed South Africa, the death data is showing far greater number of deaths than Covid-deaths and since they follow the characteristic rise and fall, it seems likely that a significant proportion are Covid-related.
Having said that, the rise and fall is only a fraction of the 200 000-odd additional deaths per year South Africa saw through untreated HIV/AIDS in the mid-2000s.
In places like the DRC, South Sudan, Malawi, it is possible that the virus may sweep through, and … if you didn’t know to look for it, you might not have seen it (yet)?
The natural death data seems to show a 4-month pause between start and finish of the “waves” per area. Some areas are already done with their 2nd wave. Others, unfortunately some of the most populous areas, are only getting started. Yet so far hospitals in 2nd wave areas seem to have managed.
It is indeed interesting that the country was a few weeks behind Europe, and now seems to be a few weeks ahead, in terms of waves. Without more granular data it is hard to know what is a 2nd wave and what is a delayed 1st wave.
There have been court cases against the most nonsensical of restrictions, some lost, some won, including the ban on tobacco sales. The activist left has and will make a noise about lack of plans for vaccines and perhaps about human rights abuses caused by overzealous enforcement, but is unlikely to challenge lockdown orthodoxy.
Could it be that this country is suddenly falling into a mesmerism of law abiding? That something coltish is being tamed? “-
probably not, there were 2 beheadings in broad daylight last week and the murder and rape rate are higher than they have ever been( probably the extra 3 million people who lost jobs during lockdown one got a bit of time on their hands), the real scary part is that we always thought that coltish behavior would protect us from a malevolent government, turns out that our people are as weak and bowed in front of their corrupt government as their neighbors in Zimbabwe are to ZANUPF..
Interesting article, especially the fatality levels even if it is a younger population.
My detailed comment on this was flagged as spam and then entirely removed when I identified it as “not spam.”
During the first peak, more people per 100 000 died in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, of known Covid than in New York city during their first peak. We only know this because this area is relatively well-serviced in terms of testing and capable health facilities – and people willing to seek treatment. The “meme” of low African deaths is based on the data only – which depends on states being able to identify and count Covid deaths.
It is entirely possible that Covid might cause many deaths yet pass through undetected in places where testing and health facilities are very poor. Indeed in Malawi people are talking about old people dying, yet the official data counts only a few Covid deaths.
We may be in a bit of a mess here in the UK, but few people are listening to Ivor Cummins who is nothing but a snake oil salesman who usually preys on corporations.