An UnHerd archive piece, first published in September.
It is entirely plausible — likely even — that Donald Trump will win a second term in the White House. Readers who are following the election through the polls will likely disagree. According to the latest snapshots the race is still Joe Biden’s to lose. The Democratic challenger is enjoying average leads of more than six points in the national polls and four points across the all-important battleground states. Today, Trump leads in just three crunch states: Georgia, Iowa and Texas. If the polls are correct, then the path that Trump took to victory four years ago is simply no longer available.
Biden can also point to other strengths: he remains in a stronger position than Hillary Clinton was four years ago; his ratings have been higher and more durable; he is routinely hitting or surpassing the 50% mark while in the latest polls he leads Trump by an impressive 16-points among women, 20-points among graduates, 20-points among Millennials, 23-points among the slightly younger Zoomers, 39-points among Hispanics and Latinos and 67-points among African Americans.
While there is evidence to suggest that Biden is failing to inspire strong support among the latter two groups, this should be seen alongside the fact that he is polling significantly stronger than recent Democratic challengers among pensioners who, crucially, are more likely to vote. Look at all of this and you might conclude that Trump, rather than winning four more years in power, is actually on course to become the first one-term President since George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton in 1992.
But what if the polls are wrong? What if people are lying? And what if Trump’s voters are more committed to this election than their opponents? The fact that the polls give Biden a strong chance of victory but the bookies give him only a 54% chance suggests that I am not the only one pondering these questions.
Indeed, it is not hard to tell a different story. One reason why I went against the grain four years ago by warning that Trump would pull off a surprise was because of a collective failure to interrogate groupthink, question the polls and ignore his in-built advantages, including strong support for his national populist message among key groups of voters who had been cut adrift by the liberal consensus that had ruled America for decades, irrespective of whether there was a Democrat or a Republican in the White House.
Today, it is similarly not hard to spot Trump’s strengths. On the economy, jobs and other issues his numbers are good if not impressive. Take this week’s poll by NBC and the Wall Street Journal: Trump leads Biden by 16 points on immigration, 10 points on the economy, 9 points on dealing with China and 2 points on crime and violence. Biden leads on healthcare, coronavirus and race relations but when Americans are asked to choose the issue that will decide their vote, they choose the economy by a country mile (16-points ahead of coronavirus). The number of Americans who think the economy would get better under Biden are outnumbered by those who think it would get worse.
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