” Njuta, allemansrätt, lagom ” what are our equivalent values in Britain”
When i was growing up in the 70s we had -and were required to have respect – for orher people and other people’s property. It was basic politeness. Stand up for those who need a seat more than you do on the bus. Hold open that door for the next person. Would you dare to reprimand anyone for dropping litter these days?
” One thing one notices if one looks directly at the common people, especially in the big towns, is that they are not puritanical. They are inveterate gamblers, drink as much beer as their wages will permit, are devoted to bawdy jokes, and use probably the foulest language in the world. They have to satisfy these tastes in the face of astonishing, hypocritical laws (licensing laws, lottery acts, etc., etc.) which are designed to interfere with everybody but in practice allow everything to happen.” Orwell, The Lion and Unicorn
Let’s not romanticize the 70s (when you were young?).
I reprimand litterers quite a lot. Sometimes they actually exhibit some shame.
Elizabeth Hart
3 years ago
Meanwhile, in Australia, I’m horrified by the political situation here in relation to the handling of this virus. Elected representatives of the people have grossly over-reached in exerting control over those they are meant to serve. And now unelected individuals, i.e. Federal and State medical officers, and various academics, are influencing policy with little or nothing in the way of accountability.
There is something really rotten afoot in Australia, and this has been building for some time. This is so much about ‘the vaccine’, and plans to impose this on the entire population. The groundwork has been set, with the coercive Federal No Jab, No Pay vaccination law implemented in January 2016, and No Jab, No Play laws subsequently implemented by the States. These coercive vaccination laws were campaigned for by the Murdoch newspapers, News Corp, which is also a corporate partner of the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, which is involved in vaccine research and development, a massive undisclosed conflict of interest.
Coercive vaccination lobby groups such as SAVN and Friends of Science in Medicine were at the forefront of the campaign for coercive vaccination, and were privileged by representation at the Senate Hearing on this matter.
And in 2015 the Australian Biosecurity Act was enacted. My reading of this Act indicates Australians could be compelled to have vaccination in an emergency, e.g. coronavirus vaccination, with the penalty for refusal being five years imprisonment and/or a $63,000 fine. I’m seeking clarification on this matter.
It’s shocking that such legislation could be slipped through the Parliament without the general public being consulted.
These are very grim times indeed, and it’s not just about the virus…
Elizabeth – “building for some time”. Yes indeed. My sister who has been a teacher in Aus for about 20 years, says the PC warriors in Aus are even more extreme than in the UK. The health and safety / pc culture in Aus, according to her, is far worse than back in Blighty … if you can imagine that. But developments in Aus over CV seem to be proving her right.
Naturally, along with all other white majority countries, Aus has been ruined as a homogenous, free thinking, confident country and has lost the belief that people generally do the right thing. This opens the way for authoritarians to impose rules – apparently for the greater good.
“lost the belief that people generally do the right thing”
And here you have it. The ideology that has captured the Anglosphere elites does not believe that people act in their own interests. We used to call it left vs right. Now, it’s not a single axis. But it comes down to the Sovereignty of the Individual. John Anderson has done some excellent interviews recently exposing this very challenge. As we have become comfortable, some (many) at the peak of wealth (our new ambassadors) have decided they know best.
It’s a feature of our system, not a bug. And it’s a feature that needs a software patch.
The problem is that people often act in their own interest – at the cost of the interests of everyone else. Refusing vaccination, for instance, increases the danger not just for yourself but for your neighbours. Doing the right thing is a different matter.
Yes, I know many dislike Peterson but I do find his ‘sovereignty of the individual’ approach to the world compelling. Nothing in it recommends selfishness, more responsibility.
A friend of mine lived in Perth for a year or so back in 2010 who reported something very similar. Public discourse centred around everyone getting wound up about the (ridiculously low) crime rate and making everything safer and safer. The guy is from Munich, so hardly from a chaotic and flamboyant place!
The Public Sector will always find work for ‘idle hands’. They are never going to step down because their task is complete.
Here in the UK, the Public Sector is thought to be about 37% of the workforce, an unsupportable position, that will have to to addressed very soon. Their pensions alone account for £50billion per annum
Geoff, observing the situation in the police state of Victoria is appalling, with people masked and under curfew, impeded from travelling from their homes, and subject to intimidation by police and the army. This is the most shocking political experience of my lifetime, and it is occurring under Australian governments, not invading powers. I’m in South Australia and alert to them using the situation to amp up authoritarianism here.
There’s a lack of transparency about the coronavirus situation, the information provided on the Department of Health Coronavirus (COVID-19) webpage is insufficient, and is beating up the number of ‘cases’ and not providing data which informs about the actual risk of this virus to the entire population. We need relevant information, e.g. what comorbidities are involved with Covid-19, across the age groups? What is the status of the people in hospital, the outcomes? We need real information, instead of media-led fear-mongering by beating up the number of ‘cases’ which is largely irrelevant.
There are no deaths reported in individuals under the age of 30, and yet the entire population of 25.5 million is being terrorised about this virus. The majority of deaths are in the age group 70-90+, i.e. the elderly. And these deaths are a tiny fraction of the elderly population in Australia. Federal and State governments have known for months now the demographic groups at risk, why have they not targeted efforts effectively to protect the elderly in aged care facilities and other vulnerable groups? Instead, untold millions are being spent on tests, with over 4.8 million being conducted, with positive tests amounting to 0.4% – what is the point of this? Millions of people with a sniffle are taking up resources in being tested, when it would be more effective for them to stay home and recover from whatever bug ails them.
The entire country is being adversely affected by the disproportionate response of governments and unelected individuals to this virus. What is the approach now, has it moved from supposedly ‘flattening the curve’ to elimination? Now what lies ahead? Are they monitoring developments in other countries such as the UK and Sweden? Are people more likely to be vulnerable being recommended to take vitamin D supplements, particularly those who are most likely to be deficient, e.g. people in aged care facilities? Is the development of natural immunity among the healthy population in Australia deliberately being hindered to facilitate the implementation of fast-tracked, experimental vaccine products, with which Australia is involved via the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI)?
The situation is dire and politicians need to get this sorted before the whole country is wrecked socially and economically.
To me too, Elizabeth. It’s seriously off-putting, especially when, having logged a request for correction, nothing happens. In one case a long and carefully thought-out comment of mine was “marked as spam” after it had been upvoted and commented on by several people.
And ” I too am very disturbed indeed by the coercive aspects of government responses to Covid-19. But it sounds as if those close-harnessed horses, fear and coercion, are pulling even more strongly in Australia than they are here in the UK.
This is bad Martin. I re-posted my response to Geoff Cox, and it’s gone again, marked as ‘spam’, despite the problem being reported to UnHerd and me being assured it was going to stay up this time. Also, I think there could be serious problems at UnHerd re conflicts of interest, I’m pursuing this.
Thank you, Elizabeth. My curiosity is up about conflicts of interest. You probably can’t say more here; but might that have something to do with the issues with comments experienced by you, me and several others I know of? I hope I’m not being dim.
You’re not being dim Martin. What do we know about UnHerd? It claims to “provide a platform for otherwise unheard ideas, people and places”. Apart from those comments and ideas that mysteriously disappear… How is UnHerd funded? Who is behind it? At the moment it’s a ‘free’ website…but is there an agenda here? Not much transparency on this website if you go looking. Not even an admin contact email that I can find. I’ve been investigating who is behind UnHerd, and have forwarded a detailed email to Freddie Sayers on this matter. I’m awaiting a response… (Found his email via another contact.)
Thank you Elizabeth; and well done, especially for finding that email address. One of the strangest aspects of what is, in almost all the most obvious respects (quality of writing, range of subjects etc.) one of the best things of this kind on the internet, is what you say ” “Not even an admin contact email that I can find.” Nor can I. I’m sure many of us would be interested to know if you unearth anything. Thank you!
Far from liberal Sweden, check out increasingly authoritarian Australia – see this opinion piece ‘Government must consider mandatory COVID-19 vaccination’ in The Sydney Morning Herald today, complete with a chorus of promoters in the comments section.
Geoff, observing the situation in the police state of Victoria is appalling, with people masked and under curfew, impeded from travelling from their homes, and subject to intimidation by police and the army. This is the most shocking political experience of my lifetime, and it is occurring under Australian governments, not invading powers. I’m in South Australia and alert to them using the situation to amp up authoritarianism here.
There’s a lack of transparency about the coronavirus situation, the information provided on the Department of Health Coronavirus (COVID-19) webpage is insufficient, and is beating up the number of ‘cases’ and not providing data which informs about the actual risk of this virus to the entire population. We need relevant information, e.g. what comorbidities are involved with Covid-19, across the age groups? What is the status of the people in hospital, the outcomes? We need real information, instead of media-led fear-mongering by beating up the number of ‘cases’ which is largely irrelevant.
There are no deaths reported in individuals under the age of 30, and yet the entire population of 25.5 million is being terrorised about this virus. The majority of deaths are in the age group 70-90+, i.e. the elderly. And these deaths are a tiny fraction of the elderly population in Australia. Federal and State governments have known for months now the demographic groups at risk, why have they not targeted efforts effectively to protect the elderly in aged care facilities and other vulnerable groups? Instead, untold millions are being spent on tests, with over 4.8 million being conducted, with positive tests amounting to 0.4% – what is the point of this? Millions of people with a sniffle are taking up resources in being tested, when it would be more effective for them to stay home and recover from whatever bug ails them.
The entire country is being adversely affected by the disproportionate response of governments and unelected individuals to this virus. What is the approach now, has it moved from supposedly ‘flattening the curve’ to elimination? Now what lies ahead? Are they monitoring developments in other countries such as the UK and Sweden? Are people more likely to be vulnerable being recommended to take vitamin D supplements, particularly those who are most likely to be deficient, e.g. people in aged care facilities? Is the development of natural immunity among the healthy population in Australia deliberately being hindered to facilitate the implementation of fast-tracked, experimental vaccine products, with which Australia is involved via the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI)?
The situation is dire and politicians need to get this sorted before the whole country is wrecked socially and economically.
You write; “Naturally, along with all other white majority countries, Aus has been ruined as a homogenous, free thinking, confident country”. There is, of course, a perspective that says that Aus. was ruined as a homogenous place in the late 1700’s when a bunch of unwanted alien immigrants arrived and essentially took the place over by force.
There was no national identity, commonality or homogeneity in pre-European Australia there was Tribalism; the outfit over the hill or down the coast didn’t even speak your language.
I had an interesting chat with a Kiwi professor a while ago and she said it was a good thing the Maoris didn’t manage to cross the Tasman Sea because if they had there would be NO ABORIGINALS LEFT. they would have been slaughtered. Because that’s what conquering tribes did. The European ‘invasion’ was a lucky break in comparison.
Reposting this for the third time I think, it keeps getting removed as ‘spam’…
Geoff, observing the situation in the police state of Victoria is appalling, with people masked and under curfew, impeded from travelling from their homes, and subject to intimidation by police and the army. This is the most shocking political experience of my lifetime, and it is occurring under Australian governments, not invading powers. I’m in South Australia and alert to them using the situation to amp up authoritarianism here.
There’s a lack of transparency about the coronavirus situation, the information provided on the Department of Health Coronavirus (COVID-19) webpage is insufficient, and is beating up the number of ‘cases’ and not providing data which informs about the actual risk of this virus to the entire population. We need relevant information, e.g. what comorbidities are involved with Covid-19, across the age groups? What is the status of the people in hospital, the outcomes? We need real information, instead of media-led fear-mongering by beating up the number of ‘cases’ which is largely irrelevant.
There are no deaths reported in individuals under the age of 30, and yet the entire population of 25.5 million is being terrorised about this virus. The majority of deaths are in the age group 70-90+, i.e. the elderly. And these deaths are a tiny fraction of the elderly population in Australia. Federal and State governments have known for months now the demographic groups at risk, why have they not targeted efforts effectively to protect the elderly in aged care facilities and other vulnerable groups? Instead, untold millions are being spent on tests, with over 4.8 million being conducted, with positive tests amounting to 0.4% – what is the point of this? Millions of people with a sniffle are taking up resources in being tested, when it would be more effective for them to stay home and recover from whatever bug ails them.
The entire country is being adversely affected by the disproportionate response of governments and unelected individuals to this virus. What is the approach now, has it moved from supposedly ‘flattening the curve’ to elimination? Now what lies ahead? Are they monitoring developments in other countries such as the UK and Sweden? Are people more likely to be vulnerable being recommended to take vitamin D supplements, particularly those who are most likely to be deficient, e.g. people in aged care facilities? Is the development of natural immunity among the healthy population in Australia deliberately being hindered to facilitate the implementation of fast-tracked, experimental vaccine products, with which Australia is involved via the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI)?
The situation is dire and politicians need to get this sorted before the whole country is wrecked socially and economically.
Might there be a connection between what is happening in Australia politically, and the panic buying of toilet rolls there which seemed to kick the whole thing off?
At the risk of a gigantic generalisation – but generalisations can occasionally be helpful – Australians and Americans, who regard themselves as the ultimate “go-get” people on the planet (unlike the “whingeing poms”) are also those most likely to fly into panic when something unexpected happens. We witnessed something very similar at the time of the attacks on the twin towers. And that did not exactly end well.
If I remember correctly Elizabeth, your post that has been marked as spam touched on the lack of research into Vitamin D & Covid-19 relative to the effort being put into finding a vaccine.
As you know, there has been much research into Vitamin D and respiratory diseases generally and Sabastian Rushworth MD (Do vitamin D supplements protect against respiratory infections? 03 Aug 2020) has now produced a good summary of an article in the BMJ, published 15 February 2017, entitled:- Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory tract infections: systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data.
His conclusion of all the research is: Vitamin D isn’t going to magically make you immune to respiratory infections, but it will likely decrease the frequency with which you get them by a bit if you are not deficient, and by a lot if you are deficient.
What we now need to know is whether Vitamin D deficiency is linked to poor outcomes for those that contract Covid-19 and, somewhat separately, whether the flu vaccination impacts adversely for Covid-19 bearing in mind that there are already studies to suggest it makes people more susceptible to other respiratory diseases.
Robin, my comment that has been marked as spam contains more info about the dire authoritarian state of Australia and its response to coronavirus, as well as a reference to vitamin D. It seems to me common sense to make sure people in aged care facilities are having the option to have at least the recommended dose of vitamin D supplements. Despite living in sunny Australia it’s possible to have low vitamin D. Due to Irish heritage, I have pale skin and am always covered up outside, and have often been victim to respiratory ailments, and I’m tucking into vitamin D now. Likewise people in aged care facilities might not get much sun exposure, and are likely to be vitamin D deficient.
Re flu vaccination, I’m also very interested to know if flu vaccination might be making people more vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19. I’ve written to Anders Tegnell and others about this. The elderly are pressed to have regular flu vaccination, even though it’s known it’s not likely to be effective in this age group…and that’s why now apparently children are vaccinated against flu, to protect the elderly. And they’re planning to do likewise re coronavirus. In my opinion this is unethical – see my rapid response published on The BMJ – ‘Is it ethical to vaccinate children to protect the elderly’, 5 August 2020.
I agree with you, Elizabeth. I’m troubled by the well meaning efforts to greatly extend vaccination to flu without much thought to the risks if done while cov2 is endemic.
Not so sure it is actually “well-meaning.” Since when have our “governors” prioritized the health of the citizens? I write from the USA. The answer is: Never. Why should we think they are starting now?
Re Bill Gates: He is totally unqualified to play any role whatsoever in setting health policy. The fact that this “foundation” head does so merely serves to highlight the intertwining of “nonprofit” with very profitable ventures. Profitable for his foundation trust’s investments in Big Pharma, and profitable for his tech company, Microsoft (development of nanotech related to vaccines). When the obvious is roundly shouted down as “conspiracy theory” in a coordinate fashion, you know you are on to something. Like, asI say, the obvious.
Great, articulate comments, Elizabeth Hart! Very worried to read of the dreadful poliitical climate in Australia, at least, Victoria. Worse even than in the USA. And that is saying something.
Maybe the spam deletions, whilst very interesting, are being deleted because they are being posted under an article about Sweden? I am sorry if someone has already said this, but, well, half the comments are about Australia…
Steve Dean, the article is about Sweden’s response to Covid-19, which has been substantially less dire than that in countries such as the US, the UK and Australia.
I wonder if Sweden has a fear-mongering media and government determined to frighten everyone about the virus, despite the fact most people aren’t at risk?
In Australia we have endured relentless scare tactics across all media for months – who is driving this and why?
Where I live, in South Australia, restrictions have been lessened. But the state of Victoria is back in draconian lockdown, with people masked, under curfew, impeded from travelling from their homes, and at risk of intimidation from the police and the army if they don’t toe the line. Epidemiologist Tony Blakely has suggested Victoria could be isolated from the rest of Australia for up two years if COVID-19 numbers “are not brought under control”. Blakely says, assuming “Victoria doesn’t get rid of this virus…Victoria will have to function in isolation from the rest of Australia until such time as we get a vaccine”.
It seems it’s all about ‘waiting for the vaccine’. Cobble together a few ‘cases’ in other states, and it’s possible these could be used to impose further lockdowns too, as is also happening in New Zealand now.
We’re being set up for fast-tracked vaccines, with CEPI chair Jane Halton, a direct advisor to Prime Minister Scott Morrison, calling for coronavirus vaccination to be compulsory.
There is already scope for this to be imposed via the Biosecurity Act 2015, with vaccine refusers possibly subject to five years imprisonment and/or a $63,000 fine. I suspect not a lot of Australians are aware of this, and how did this coercive legislation get through the parliament?
So things are rather different here than in Sweden… We can’t talk about this publicly in Australia because such discussion is hindered and often outright censored. Hence my raising it on UnHerd – it’s a call for help!
Yes, on your last point, I’m concerned that extending the flu jab could end up being a mistake. It maybe that vaccinating against the most lethal virus is the best option when there is more than one in circulation.
I tried to reply with a reference to another detailed review paper on vitamin D which discussed the biological mechanism in detail, and some further facts supporting the case for vitamin D but the comment was rejected. Why is this considered spam? Who is doing the moderation?
Many many reports around the world , originating from the epi centre of the pandemic in New York hospitals clearly show, the lower the vitamin D levels in the blood , the worse the outcomes. A level of 30 song/ml seems to be the magic point. The higher above 30 the better the outcomes. Below 27 and outcomes were gradually worse. Check this out on the internet but beware , many search engines , particularly google, are censoring this potentially life saving info.They are all in the pockets of Big Parma, Bill Gates, et al.
For top quality scientific links check out Mercola.com.
How very encouraging this must be for ‘Fu Manchu & Co in Peking to read this.
One must ask is Australia worth saving?ie, worth a full scale nuclear war? Based on what you say, definitely not!
In fact all Australian schools should immediately start teaching their children how to Kowtow, it may prove invaluable for the eons of slavery that are to come.
Granted, Australia’s performance has been truly pathetic!
What on Earth has gone wrong?
They will have to ” man up” unless they wish to be hoovered up by the ‘Chinks’.
crawfordwright
3 years ago
The role of the media in the U.K. would be an interesting comparison with Sweden? Here the bbc and the Guardian my “go to” for news has wallowed in the hype and fearmongering. I have been banned from commenting on the Guardian as I kept imploring them to stop printing new articles which stoked irrational fear and to always put new data in context, ie deaths.
Same with me with my default Italian media. If I am learning something from this madness, it is experiencing the life of an outcast. Being labelled, isolated, derided as a gullible negationist, conspirator, intellectually idiot, even if I don’t believe in anything but science, just because I had enough time, intelligence and critical spirit to do my research and don’t buy in all this narrative
Same here in Canada (with the mainstream media). I reserve the right to question the government’s reaction to the COVID-19 situation without having to be called a conspiracy theorist, right-wing zealot, or crank – and indeed, I dare say I am not any one of those things! It definitely has been four months of living like an outcast in many ways (and it’s getting worse, as masks are becoming mandatory in a growing number of venues).
A couple weeks ago, Forbes published an article entitled “You Must Not ‘Do Your Own Research’ When It Comes To Science.” The media is now actively discouraging the populace from engaging in critical thinking. It’s absolutely disgraceful and more than a little frightening.
Rickard Gardell
3 years ago
That was impressive. Subtle and sensitive view of Swedish culture, Freddie. Didn’t realise you were half Swede. I am also a Swede living in Australia and also lived in the UK. It has always confounded me with Anglo people’s fascination with politicians at the same time as they hold them in utter contempt. In sweden, politicians are pretty boring just there to serve the people. In schools the emphasis in anglo is debating(I am right you are wrong), in sweden it is group work(let’s find a compromise). A combination of these dynamics are playing out real time in covid. As you say, covid is revealing a lot about societies.
Revealing not just societal attitudes. I suspect the fundamental difference in outcome between the UK and other European countries will have a lot to do with our very unhealthy population.
Your point is spot on. A good Swedish friend of mine worked in London for over 10 years and for the last 4 years lives and works in Frankfurt. He points out how boring the political debates are in Germany/Sweden (technocratic points) compared to English debating performances.
I believe that may be an artificial projection of the media.
The official opposition party in Germany has become the AfD, which is definitely not a result of politics being about boring technocratic points. In Sweden their equivalent party got roughly 18% of the vote.
However you wouldn’t know this from reading German media. I can’t say for Swedish but I’ve heard it’s no different. British media is significantly more politically balanced than most European countries, where journalists have decided pretty much uniformly to act as if certain political issues just do not exist at all.
Chuck Burns
3 years ago
I am an American. I am relating your description of how the Pandemic was handled in Scandinavian countries to what is going on in my country, the USA. One phrase that sums it up for me is “designed to be proportionate to the threat, but unhysterical”. This suggests the response to the threat is based on rational logic and science. In the USA, the Pandemic was seized upon in January as an “opportunity”. Ever since, the virus has been used as a political weapon. There is no rational logic or science at all being considered when authoritarian commands are dictated from State Governors, City Mayors, and government bureaucrats. There is no concern at all given for the well being of the people, the economy, and the actions dictated on us are purposely designed to prolong the situation.
Exactly Chuck, same thing in Australia. Have you watched the Event 201 videos – A Global Pandemic Exercise run by the John Hopkins Center for Health Security, World Economic Forum, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation? These are a must watch. If you have time constraints, watch the Highlights Reel and Segment 4 – Communications Discussion, and Segment 5 – Hotwash and Conclusion. These are the blueprint for what’s gone on re the current coronavirus debacle. This virus was just the mechanism they wanted to push a huge business and control agenda. Check out the videos and see how they planned to manipulate the media etc, it’s all there.
Robin Taylor
3 years ago
In his blog, How bad is covid really? (A Swedish doctor’s perspective), Sabastian Rushworth MD states that his experience of working in a large hospital in Stockholm has been one where virtually every patient seemed to have Covid but now he hasn’t seen a case for over a month. He makes a convincing argument to suggest that more than 50% of Swedes probably now have immunity. He explains that the 50% could have been achieved as follows:-
This number is perfectly reasonable if we assume a reproductive number for the virus of two: If each person infects two new, with a five day period between being infected and infecting others, and you start out with just one infected person in the country, then you will reach a point where several million are infected in just four months. If only 6000 are dead out of five million infected, that works out to a case fatality rate of 0.12 percent, roughly the same as regular old influenza, which no-one is the least bit frightened of, and which we don’t shut down our societies for.
[I have avoided quotes & direct reference to the blog because posts often end up in spam or get delayed. Google to get the link.]
No offence, but the mortality rate of COVID-19 is heavily studied in mainstream science. And the consensus I hear keeps hovering around 0.6%-0.8%. As for immunity, I was not aware of any reliable figures – people did not even know for sure if there was any lasting immunity, last I saw. It is not settled yet, to be sure, but if you actually want to argue your case, how about engaging with mainstream debate, finding some peer-reviewed article that tilts your way, and maybe explains why the others get it wrong? Skipping the science publications in favour of one blogger with an MD and a back-of-the-envelope calculation is not serious. It is the kind of thing that will not convince anybody, but ony confirm those who have made their mind up in advance.
No, from what I have seen, 0.6-0.8% is still the best estimate of the COVID fatality rate, even if the debate is far from over yet. I would love to see any solid evidence to the contrary, if you can point to it.
Stockholm county, which is a severely hit region, has had almost exactly 0.1% fatalities, counted as dead WITH Covid compared to population, (which is not necessarily the same as dead FROM Covid). Lombardia reports about 0.16% fatalities of its population. If you look at country wide statistics fatalities drop even more than that. 0.6%-0.8% would mean that even in these regions, still quite few have been subjected to the virus, which does not seem to make mathematical sense, given how drastically the rate of infection has decreased. My guess on how to make the figures add up – more people have been subjected to the virus than shown by anti-bodies tests and more people being immune or not showing any symptoms than previously thought. This is an optimistic view – I do not believe in any substantial second waves in the regions that have been severely hit.
On antibody tests underestimating those previously infected you’re right. 1. Early assays were set up to avoid false positives so they are low sensitivity and very high specificity. Anyone with lower levels of antibodies will be negative. A high sensitivity test was used in a town in Austria which is a famous ski resort & 70-75% were positive. 2. Some unknown fraction of people shrug the virus easily & quickly, using innate mechanisms such as release of IFN. This is part of immune surveillance & kills cells infected with virus or transformed by cancer. These people develop no or little antibodies because there was neither time nor need, but they probably have T-memory through antigen presentation. For clinical evidence of how powerful IFN is, see Synairgen press release https://www.synairgen.com/w…
I can’t recall any paper with an IFR as great since the Diamond Princess study. This of course is heavily biased to the elderly cruiser demographic and is much an overestimate when including the 80% younger & less vulnerable demographic.
If you read his article he has a link to a study by Karolinska Institet entitled: Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19. This scientific study suggests that in May 2020 some 29% of people in Sweden may have had immunity.
I try not to “skip the science publications” which is why it is helpful to get information from people who are also looking for the data. You say that “the mortality rate of COVID-19 is heavily studied in mainstream science” but you can only get the mortality rate if you know the incidence, for which there is very little hard data.
@Kelly Mitchell. I am talking about the infection fatality rate,effectively “If you get it, how likely are you to die”? Hard to estimate, but the number you want.
That said, I did a quick Google. The Karolinska iInstiture paper was about looking for T cell immunity. They may have made conclusions about overall mortality (I did not read through), but it is not their main point, or expertise.
More to the point a paper by John Ioannides, 14 July 2020, MedArxiv, not peer reviewed. This is a meta-analysis of COVID infection fatality rates (IFR, what we want to know). Not perfect, but less uncertain than a single study, and a little harder to bias. IFR ranged from 0.0 to 1.3% across studies, and was found to be quite a bit higher in places where there had been a lot of deaths. So, a lot of variability between different locations, not well understood, could depend on a lot of factors, but OK, from that study the ‘idiots resume’ would now be around 0.3-0.4% rather than the 0.6-0.8% that was estimated earlier. I stand corrected (by a factor of two).
This is as far as I have time to go. Considering how important this is, and how hard to get right, I would leave it at this, complete with uncertainty, and refrain from making my own rough calculations that compete with the professionals. I certainly hope that decision makers stick to the kind of probabiliy distribution this kind of numbers give, rather than trying to guesstimate their own certainties.
If anybody can give a reasoned literature analysis and come with more precise numbers, by all means let us hear it.
I applaud your logic & I don’t disagree with where you’ve landed. It’s actually very difficult to work out the ‘correct’ number, if such a concept holds water anyway. I edge to lower, but can live with your pick, too.
Well Rasmus, if you want to refrain from making your own calculations you could also start by not quoting diverse statistics. You’re just muddying the waters and creating both confusion and irrelevance.
The IFR for the working population below 50 years of age is as close to 0% as you can get. That is a FACT as very few people below 50 has died. The very old and sick in age care homes, just like with flu, dies at a greater rate. Most of the deaths are very old and very sick people in these homes. The same happens with the flu season every year. The seasonal deaths in age care homes are not that different from what we see in covid. Flu also doesn’t kill(or contribute to kill) people below 50.
Robin, I wholeheartedly agree with your post. I use an infection fatality rate of 0.25% as CDC displayed that for weeks before increasing it. It’s a median from dozens of estimates so it may be wrong. U.K. had 47,000 deaths so around 19million infections, so about 28% of population. If 30% were resistant to start with & 5% youngest not susceptible & an unknown % able to clear virus speedily leaving no trace, we’re at a much lower remaining % susceptible than the published herd immunity threshold papers suggest fit the data well (Gupta & Gomez research groups included). Imperials model infamously assumed 100% initial susceptibility which is silly. No virus ever infects close to that. They also assumed complete homogeneity of transmission, also dubious. The more thoughtful groups developed models of differential rates of transmission & allowed for some prior immunological resistance. HIT ranged consistently from 15-25% infected. I think that’s what we’ve had and the pandemic is ebbing away. Also note the incredibly similar daily deaths timecourses across U.K., Sweden, France, Belgium & others. We’ve to believe these v similar profiles arose by chance despite differences in lockdowns, adherence to guidance & population demographics or we could accept the in my view more likely explanation that all flowed from developing equilibrium between a novel virus & it’s human host.
Also see Drosten et al, in Germany, who showed at least 30% had virus-reactive T-cells, same as the Karolinska study. https://www.medrxiv.org/con…
rollo110.rt
3 years ago
is the swedish media more measured ??- it seemed to me that UK almost went the swedish way then the politicians got spooked by media stampede inevitably based on thin evidence but max emotion
Its similarly alamistic. Always finding some failed professor in xxxx-ology to shout “lockdown!” or “facemask!”, in order to increase anxiety and get the precious clicks they crave.
Clach Viaggi
3 years ago
So refreshing and instructive to read this. Unheard is really one of the few oasis of human rationality in this driven by fear madness we are living
Dougie Undersub
3 years ago
A timely article, Freddie, although in truth we could have done with it about three months ago. I hope the personal liberties lobby read it. With the exception of schools and hospitality, not trivial exceptions I grant you, the UK and Swedish lockdowns have been quite similar. The essential difference is the degree to which the UK Government felt it had to use compulsion, rather than encouragement. Boris, of course, started down the encouragement route but was savagely criticised for it by a media with an agenda and was forced to alter his approach. Perhaps correctly, as the hysterical response to l’affaire Cummings demonstrated unequivocally our nation’s inability to operate a version of lockdown in which people were trusted to make difficult decisions that balanced their family’s welfare with the public good.
Olaf Felts
3 years ago
Is Freddie going mainstream and hoping for a job at the BBC? Hope not. Using the term laissez-faire? Why not pragmatic or egalitarian? In truth this is all getting very tedious – basically we are dealing with a respiratory virus that for the vast majority is mild and not life threatening. We can argue/discuss endlessly about this bug, but one clear reality is that the cost of lockdowns will be enormous in cost, jobs, futures, and lives (cancer not being treated etc.). I have a privileged insight into this because of the work I do; and it is truly terrifying. I have not been at least concerned about contracting covid – why? Simply I look at the chances of my catching it and then dying. Re-markedly low, even using the most pessimistic of forecasts (Imperial College take a bow). As one person I know who was tested positive said, ‘I would not have realised I had it but for my partner being routinely tested because of his job’. Perspective, perspective please.
Andrew Shaughnessy
3 years ago
Britain used to have universally shared values, but they’ve been eroded by decades of enforced multiculturalism. How long does the author believe things will go on the way he describes when ethnic Swedes look set to be a minority in their own country by 2050?
c.87% of British people are white. Check out Clapham Common during a sunny weekend; litter everywhere. And the people are all white British and middle class. Plenty of Aussies too – so may be they are to blame?
87% ? Not apparent if you were born and bred in the East End of London. See your Clapham Common and raise you Notting Hill Carnival or any temporary traveller site post departure.
Hell Steve, where did that come from? I had been reading about the census and thought that fact was interesting and relevant over impression. I state a fact and you call me a Nazi…wow, just wow. Another fact: Nazi was short for national socialists and they didn’t like facts much either.
My take on the erosion of shared values (in the last 40 years) would be that it’s more down to decades of the deliberate destruction of the political, cultural and social institutions and organisations that supported those shared values. At the same time ‘the other’ – in terms of ethnic minorities, migrant workers and immigrants have been blamed for failures of the economic system. Saying ‘I blame multiculturalism’ is the polite way of saying ‘I blame the foreigners’. The erosion of shared values has been deliberately undertaken to enable a political structure that promotes individualism over group responsibility and allows the powerful to consolidate and increase their wealth and power.
Hmm…”universally shared values”….democracy and pluralism, yes…..but my feeling growing up in the ’50s and ’60s was that those in favour of militarism, monarchy, and christianity also though that we should all buy in to that too. Those who sounded a different note did not quite get the media coverage that their numbers deserved, I think.
I’m not convinced that it’s immigration that is the issue. A heck of a lot of immigrants have something closer to what were previously considered the shared values of the communities they join. It’s part of the reason that the newcomer’s communities are often so close knit.
It’s the people who have been around for generations who have lost a lot of their ancestors previously held cultural values.
Wilfred Davis
3 years ago
” Njuta, allemansrätt, lagom ” what are our equivalent values in Britain”… An interesting article, but I am not convinced that – even though we do not have those terms in English – there is truly such a stark cultural difference between Sweden and Britain in these respects. How about the concepts of fairness (widely regarded as being a British characteristic) and being reasonable (closely related to fairness and consideration for others). Similarly, you can walk through private farmland as long as you don’t damage crops or disturb livestock, and the concept of established right of way over private land is centuries old. And we are world-class at queuing: that everyday example of fairness, consideration, equality …
“And we are world-class at queuing…” As a Swedish friend of mine once said ” we queue too, we just don’t talk about it. It is the English that endlessly talk about their queuing”
Frederik van Beek
3 years ago
In general I consider scandinavian countries to be the richest and most developed civilizations on earth at this moment but unfortunately it doesn’t seem like the world is heading towards the so called Swedish model (which isn’t so different from the neighbouring countries). If global mass hysteria could have been avoided anywhere then Sweden , Norway, Finland, Denmark, etc., were the most likely candidates to avoid it. I wouldn’t call the Swedish policy laissez-faire in any respect. It’s just common sense based on the available science, plain and simple. Act on what you do know from scientific experience and do not act on the basis of irrational emotions.
Remember what Johan Giesecke said. Some countries do this, some countries do that and in the end it’s the same ball game everywhere (virologically speaking that is). The virus will eventually spread like wildfire (or already has), it is endemic.
I would agree that the Scandinavian countries were the most civilized nations the world has seen, but for obvious reasons that will change in the years to come. Sweden, for example, is probably too far gone to be saved.
Stupidity – their looking lonely in that respect. The lowest denominator obviously. How dare they pursue common sense and pragmatism? Being provocative. Apologise – the covid factor.
I agree, ‘laissez-faire’ suggests lack of care or committment. In reality the Swedes have demonstrated far more real rigour to their deliberations. It would be more accurate to label the shut downs as laissez faire because little real thought or care has gone into those decisions and they have just lazily gone along with the dominant media-backed voices.
Ken Charman
3 years ago
I am a Brit who worked for a Swedish tech company for five years and have also headed up EMEA for US companies, where I had to explain variations across the many EU cultures in the “single” market (where one EU wide approach is not viable). “Lagom” was my go to word, and to Anglo-Saxon culture it seems designed to suffocate individuality and competition. However, it obviously has compensations that Covid has highlighted. As the UK lurches towards 4 or 5 million unemployed and continues to argue from polar opposites about lockdowns, in much the same febrile atmosphere we suffered over Brexit, we look on in envy.
I don’t think Anglo-Saxon really understand individuality.
Dave Tagge
3 years ago
Very interesting article by Mr. Sayers.
I will pick a couple nits with one comment that he makes about the U.S.: “Try putting decking on the seaside edge of your garden, or buying alcohol from anywhere other than the state monopoly ” you will be met with restrictions that would be unthinkable in either Britain or the United States.”
In the case of the U.S., he might be surprised by the number of places with similar restrictions on putting decking on the seaside edge of one’s garden. It certainly wouldn’t be close to everywhere, but plenty of places in the U.S. have such restrictions imposed either by local government or a home owners’ association. HOA’s are admittedly private, non-governmental entities. In form, however, an HOA for a large subdivision ends up looking a bit like a small-town government, and (usually retired) busybody HOA board members are a common stereotype. I hadn’t made the connection previously, but the personality type is quite similar to a lockdown-crazed governor or mayor.
Also, seven U.S. states have state-run liquor stores with monopolies on the package – i.e., retail for off-premises consumption – sale of spirits.
Exactly, I grew up in NY suburb, all middle/upper class. My neighbor got in trouble with HOA because his US flag was too big. And you had to cut the grass too – my parents got in trouble because it was “overgrown”. In USA you can not but alcohol unless you are 21, so we all had fake IDs. You can get married at 18, die for your country, breed, pay taxes, borrow money BUT you can not buy a six pack.
Yes, stories like that are common, as well as complaints about dealing with architectural review committees. (To be clear, I’m not saying all HOA’s are that way. I’ve lived in a condo with an HOA for 10+ years. The board and other residents have pretty much always been reasonable.)
The bad situations on occasion get really bad, though. Here’s a WSJ article from last year about one where a homeowner and the HOA ran up combined legal bills of almost $800,000 in a 7+ year dispute that clearly turned into a contest of wills – https://www.wsj.com/article… .
A few quotes:
“Soon after Jim Hildenbrand arrived in Avignon Villa Homes, a community for older adults in a Kansas City suburb, the homeowner association disputed the placement of his satellite dish. It cited him for parking cars in his driveway overnight and placing a St. Francis statue in a flower bed. He was later written up for a dead cat in a window well”which Mr. Hildenbrand suspects was planted by a neighborhood enemy.”
“After he installed a decorative, shin-high wall around a plant bed on the side of his house, saying it would enhance the curb appeal, the HOA ordered him to remove it because it hadn’t been approved by an architectural review committee. Mr. Hildenbrand said he actually had the needed approval. Seven years after he moved in, the HOA and Mr. Hildenbrand are still fighting over the decorative wall in court, with no end in sight.”
“Board members and some residents said they are the victim of a rogue neighbor… Another contingent of residents supports Mr. Hildenbrand, asserting they have been mistreated by the HOA board. “They have bullied for so long so many of the residents,” said Connie Morris, 66, whose complaints include the association not allowing a decorative bench in her front yard.”
“When he installed a satellite dish next to his home in the backyard, the HOA advised him it had to be in the middle of the yard, he said. Mr. Hildenbrand refused to move it, arguing the placement of the dishes falls under federal control … The board dropped the demand after it was advised by the Federal Communications Commission that the HOA had no jurisdiction over satellite dishes.”
Donn
3 years ago
Wonderful article, of much value. Thank you!
On an exceedingly trivial matter: Shouldn’t “summers” be possessive in the phrase “It’s a lovely summers day”?
I am so happy to have found unherd, since most media coverage during this crisis has been true garbage when the World needs to be informed, not misled. Being Swedish, it has been so strange to have Sweden of all places to be blamed for Libertarianism (I have seen this in respected Newspapers like CNN, NY times etc.), when to me it truly is a country that protects human rights, and especially those of children who haven’t had their right to play, interact and go to school being taken away from them. Not choosing lockdown was never only about the economy, but about sparing society from collapse (psychological, social, educational etc. and yes of course economic). Also, importantly, our Constitution does not give the Government the right to decide over our freedom of movement. I live in Italy, and ran off to Sweden before the quarantine, sparing my children of a trauma that they would have carried with them forever I believe.
Yes I can agree that it is a lot about the children being able to go to school. And it breaks my heart to see the school closures around the world.
Fraser Bailey
3 years ago
‘Njuta, allemansrätt, lagom ” what are our equivalent values in Britain or the United States?’
The equivalent value in Britain is to go to the park or countryside and leave a lot of litter. The equivalent value in the US is to attack little old ladies with paint.
I’m not quite sure what you mean but, broadly speaking, the UK’s educational, welfare, judicial, social and media structures have created tens of millions of people whose only loyalty is to themselves and their appetites. Thus they happily gather to eat and drink in public places, assuming that others will clear up after them. It is sickening, especially as most of them would claim to care about ‘the environment’.
Plenty of people (northern europe – as per the article) eat and drink in public parks; the question is why the British litter? The Germans recycle 2x of their waste as the British.
You write; “the UK’s educational, welfare, judicial, social and media structure” No mention of political there. Are you old enough to remember “There is no such thing as society”? Loadsamoney! I won’t go on about the detail, but Thatcher….who of course would never have had a majority in a Proportional Representation electoral system. And of course the Labour Party has continued to support the electoral system which gives us periodic Tory govnerments on a minority vote.
I do get tired of the “no such thing as society” not being put into context. So here it is in context:
“I think we have been through a period when too many people have been given to understand that when they have a problem it is government’s job to cope with it. ‘I have a problem, I’ll get a grant. I’m homeless, the government must house me.’ They are casting their problems on society. And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families. And no governments can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then, also, to look after our neighbours. People have got their entitlements too much in mind, without the obligations. There is no such thing as an entitlement, unless someone has first met an obligation.”
I personally cannot see what is wrong with what Thatcher was saying. Perhaps Paul Boizot could tell me?
It’s the bit that says “And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families.” Do I really need to explain this? That there are also communities both geographically at various levels, and of interest and belief; and also, though I am not a nationalist, nations – a questionable one, I agree, but very fashionable in the last couple of centuries. If it is only individuals and families, why should anyone join the British army?
I don’t think she was expressing, perhaps clumsily, that it’s individuals & groups of them who bring things about. She perhaps didn’t know what, specifically, was meant by ‘society’, and it’s not a dumb question. She went onto to exemplify that rights & obligations must exist in some manner of equilibrium & ultimately there are individuals & groups of them exercising & discharging these rights & obligations in harmony.
In the overall context of the interview she was giving she was being asked about children and families and education and such like. She wasn’t addressing the bigger picture of the nation. It’s asking too much for her entire political philosophy to have been summed up by a few sentences. Here’s another bit from the interview I found (it was with Women’s Own btw) where she again uses the phrase that bothers you: “There is no such thing as society. There is living tapestry of men and women and people and the beauty of that tapestry and the quality of our lives will depend upon how much each of us is prepared to take responsibility for ourselves and each of us prepared to turn round and help by our own efforts those who are unfortunate. And the worst things we have in life, in my view, are where children who are a great privilege and a trust”they are the fundamental great trust, but they do not ask to come into the world, we bring them into the world, they are a miracle, there is nothing like the miracle of life”we have these little innocents and the worst crime in life is when those children, who would naturally have the right to look to their parents for help, for comfort, not only just for the food and shelter but for the time, for the understanding, turn round and not only is that help not forthcoming, but they get either neglect or worse than that, cruelty”.
Mark Corby
3 years ago
A wonderful eulogy.
Who would have thought otherwise? A country that spends half the year in darkness, invents the Sabb, Volvo, and Aga, avoided WWII, and has a proud independent History, was bound to the find the correct answer to C19.
HMG should be, but predictably isn’t, ashamed of our simply pathetic performance in the C-19 fiasco.
Interesting here in NZ. Had the virus taken control, I’m not sure whether people would have responded in a Swedish way or a British way. Community is probably stronger here than in much of the UK, but not all. The government response would undoubtedly have been highly authoritarian
tangosmurfen
3 years ago
Sweden lacks in abilities. Ever since the constitution was changed in 1974 and the government was allowed to appoint civil servants without giving priority to merits, incompetence is slowly taking over. The reason that Covid-19 was allowed to spread instead of being hunted down by infection tracing was because the ability to do large scale infection tracing has been lost.
This was a consequence of the Smittskydsinstitutet (The Institute of infectious protectio) being transformed to the Folkhälsomyndigheten (The Office for Public Health). Focus shifted from infectious diseases to PC subjects like the transgender experience of forest fires or the problem racified (people who are white but appointed to honorable Blacks) have when visiting a health care center.
Anders Tegnells job has been to retroactively explain why proper action has not been taken. When sick people arrived from the Alps he explained that COVID-19 does not spread outside the Alps. Earlier he explained that it did not spread in the Alps but only in China.
When old people with COVID-19 where sent to home for old people where care givers had no protection, Tegnell explained that protective equipment did not work.
And so on. Incompetence explain why Sweden acts differently
The Idea is that muslins are black, although they are white in skin colour. Any criticism of Islam can than be labelled racism. Example: A man complained about the sounds of the Muslim all to prayer. He wrote that it sounds like a donkey in pain. He was accused of racism but not convicted.
Hi Stephan – that’s a very old definition of racism. Why go that far when I can be accused of racism if I tell an Irish joke – and I’m 100% the same race as an Irishman.
But can I ask again for a bit more explanation of this line of yours:
” Ever since the constitution was changed in 1974 and the government was allowed to appoint civil servants without giving priority to merits …”
lmcelhill
3 years ago
Thanks Freddie. So glad I found UnHerd. It’s saving my sanity. An excellent article that makes a lot of sense. I’m in Canada, Vancouver and I wish we’d approached Covid in a similar way to Sweden. I’m having a problem with the mask issue and I’m also concerned about all the hysteria around rising cases as restrictions are gradually removed ,(but deaths are down).People here seem to be obsessed with the mask issue. If you don’t wear a mask you’re either an idiot ( Covidiot) or a murderer! I feel increasingly defensive. I’m a retired registered nurse with years of experience and I resent being branded as some kind of nutter. Translink, the company that runs public transport, ie the buses and Skytrain, are mandating masks be worn on transit starting in two weeks time. NOT because our Public Health Officer has made it so………no. Translink’s customers have demanded it !!!!!
pallenfamily
3 years ago
Once again Freddy, you prove to be an inspiration. I met with a medical doctor today who was of the opinion wearing face masks was a selfless act of care in the community and that the radical UK lock down is why the mortality rate is low. I disagreed and consider the punitive practice as pure political propaganda to encourage confidence for shoppers in order to kick start the failing and fragile economy. The aggressive UK lock down may well of prolonged the viral infection and has created unnecessary hardship for many poor people and their families. God only knows what excess deaths will occur because of suspended medical treatments. Throughout the “pandemic” you have objectively, interviewed a number of highly qualified epidemiologists, statisticians and biophysicists. The common thread is that they are all of similar opinion that the virus is mild by comparison and that herd immunity will develop over time. And, probably has already to a great degree. I become quite perplexed when the Government state they are following the science, when stellar scientists contradict. I wish we had stayed on course following in the mode of Sweden prior to Professor Ferguson’s dismal predictions. Thank you and keep up the good work, it is invaluable. An interesting insight of Swedish culture!
Dave Tagge
3 years ago
Find it interesting that the Swedish left-right divide on the issue of government-mandated shutdowns is broadly the opposite of the U.S.
Many issues are simply framed as oppositional. If it’s imposed by Trump, Democrats oppose, if it’s imposed by Obama, Republicans oppose. Irrespective of the topic at hand. There are many gotcha videos on YouTube showing this by asking for feedback on policies when presenting them as if they had been proposed by the other party.
G H
3 years ago
Well writen piece. What I missed was the narcolepsy story after the 2009 swine flu vaccination campain. Anders Tegnell was in charge of the mass vaccination in Sweden which left 500 children behind with narcolepsy after getting a hastily developed vaccine. Guess, this might have played a role in his decision making having had experienced such serious side effects after adminstering a not well developed vaccine. My assumption is that he is simply not sharing the optimism of other public-healh figures (and of interested commerical parties) that we would have a safe and effective vaccine anytime soon. So, he might have prefered to attempt reaching quick natural population immunity over waiting for a vaccine to achieve an uncertain and late population immunity
Narcolepsy is a debilitating condition that causes overpowering daytime sleepiness, sometimes accompanied by a sudden muscle weakness in response to strong emotions such as laughter or anger. So far, there is no cure.
And in addition: if ever a vaccine was NOT necessary it was for the swine flu. So it’s a good thing Anders Tegnell has learned his lesson from this. For the rest of the world apparently the swine flu was just a precedent for the mass hysteria we are in right now.
Paul Reidinger
3 years ago
An excellent piece.
Lennart Johansson
3 years ago
Not sure I’d buy into these cultural differences between people around the world. I mean a lot of us here in sweden have been influenced by British values for many many decades. Or French. Or German. Or Finnish. Etc. What I think mostly differ is that here, our politicians didn’t interfere. They wisely let Anders Tegnell and his team communicate their strategy straight to us citizens. And how he did that! I actually didn’t like him to start with, but by pure logos, ethos and pathos he changed the whole attitude, singlehandedly.. It’s the definition of good leadership, and has little to do with national cultural differences (Shackleton would nod approvingly.) Man of the year? That’s an understatement. He has preserved sanity in the western world.
Variant
3 years ago
It would seem there are mixed inputs here. Some parts informed by leftish community-oriented thinking, cultural homogeneity and a deference to experts (which can work out when, as in this case, the experts end up being right), but also by a constitution with aggressive limitations on government’s ability to infringe on rights of individuals.
Whatever the reasons may be, it’s been extremely valuable to have a state-level “control” on the effectiveness of lockdowns.
Is it too late to trade Fauci for Tegnell?
Alka Hughes-Hallett
3 years ago
I am so glad I found Unherd since March . I look forward to your articles and interviews and they reflect my own views and observations. I particularly enjoyed this one – searching for society’s values and putting a finger on why it does what it does . Respect is a word that comes to mind. Swedes clearly seem to respect themselves , each other and their environment. I think we have a lot to learn there.
Michael Koch
3 years ago
A very interesting and thought provoking article, as are the comments and discussions. I am very happy to have “discovered” Unherd. A few comments of my own would be that culture most certainly will have an impact on how a society responds to crises. I have read of similar responses to that by Sweden in countries like Taiwan and Japan. Relative uniformity in social standing and cultural values means the population regulates it own response without excessive intervention from government.The fore-mentioned countries were of course more practiced in dealing with viral outbreaks and in addition it appears that previous exposure to SARS may have resulted in many Pacific Rim countries higher levels of immunity to Sars Cov-2. In the case of the US, a volatile social and political environment, the media abetting and cheer-leading the intensity and antagonistic nature of opposing (and sometimes aligning) political goals with respect to internal and external (China) agendas have greatly influenced government at every level, public discourse and uniformity of response and outcomes.
janebrynonnen
3 years ago
A very inspiring piece. It reminds me of Jonathan Haidt’s analysis of the left wing in the US and UK, which is that they only take notice of the care/harm aspect of morality, and neglect other values to do with having the collective work together (which include loyalty, sanctity and authority). Continental Europe it seems has a much broader view of well-being.
Lockdown in the UK has been depressing for the sterile government message to ‘stay home and save lives’, followed by ‘buy stuff you don’t need and save the economy’, when it could have been calling on us all to pull together and create a better society. Fortunately many of us have been doing just that. But we need a new story too, where we take a long-term view of health. It is about so much more than not catching a virus. We should not let ‘stay safe’ be the highest value.
It’s probably not the moment to point it out, but I find Jonathan Haidt’s analysis of the left lacking in one key caveat. Their priority for “care/harm” aspect applies *only* to their chosen in-groups, and is not universally applied. When it comes to the out-groups, they often don’t even want them to receive a trial most of the time, much less a fair one.
Everything else you mention, I couldn’t agree more.
An example would be Harvey Weinstein – rich, white, male – outgroup. The left did not ask for a trial to establish his guilt, but assumed that he was guilty, and attempted to punish him extrajudicially. This is a very different reaction to, say, Shamima Beghum, who, for the most part, was held up as an example of someone who was entitled to a fair trial before being judged guilty. Two different reactions depending on whether the alleged criminal is a member of the in-group or out-group.
Rasmus Fogh
3 years ago
Trying again – first one got swallowed up.
Nice article by Freddie Sayers, but (being half Swedish?) he left some aspects out. First, Sweden is known for a quite heavy social control. If public opinion and peer pressure are strong enough to control people’s behaviour you can indeed get reliable results without explicit rules. But the individual (lack of) freedom is not necessaryily much better in one case than the other.
Second, Swedes seem to be much more deferential to authority than some other Scandinavians. Immigration policy is a good example. If Sweden is rather more welcoming to immigrants, it is unlikely to be because Swedes are inherently nicer than e.g. Danes. Both countries started in the same place, with an educated elite strongly committed to tolerance and welcoming foreigners, and a population increasingy seeing it as a problem. Only in Sweden the elite managed to ostracise dissenting voices and impress its values on the populace, whereas is Denmark they tried and failed. The ‘version of the Social Democrats curently in power’ in Denmark is tough on immigration – reluctantly – because they know that any other policy would mean they could not get elected. Except for some progressive hold-outs, ‘tough on immigration’ is for good or ill the Danish consensus.
When Anders Tegnell decided that skiing holidays and graduation parties were more important than additional public health measures he was making a trade-off: That it was worth some extra deaths to let the Swedish people continue to ‘njuta’ in peace. No complaints there, that is exactly the kind of trade-off governments are supposed to make. But it does rather depend on how many avoidable deaths we are talking about. And here Tegnell basically took it for granted that the pandemic would not reach Sweden or was not very lethal, and that anyway there was nothing that could be done about it. He may yet be proved right (though it does not look like it from Denmark or New York) but whatever he thought *there is no way he could have known from the data then available*. In effect, he was gambling. Public health authorities in Denmark also wanted to keep to their prepared pandemic plans (even if they were prepared for flu, a rather different disease), stick to their comfort zone, and avoid drastic measures. Only in Denmark the government decided that this was not enough and took some action – and thank God for that. In Sweden the government deferred to the health authorities, the populace deferred to the government, and if that meant that Sweden did it differently from eveybody else – on the same data – people were happy to see this as one more proof of Swedish superiority. To each his own – but I am not moving to Stockholm any time soon.
Hey Rasmus. Your obviously Danish but why so angry at Sweden? Chill brother, we are trying to do the best we can, just in the way we think is best. You should read the very good article in danish newspaper that former danish prime minister Lars lokke Rasmussen wrote in may. He said an important aspect is economy over time and Sweden’s strategy may work best there. Not in short terms. EU has just taxed all countries with billions of extra euros. But the pandemic is not over by far. There will be need for more taxes this anfall and winter. Is it worth it when the number show that a smal % dead are +70-80 years? I got 2 kids that are 16 and 18. What is their future if we don’t have jobs?
very interesting article. I’m been following Freddie and I like the way he interview professionals and let them speak their mind in lots of topics. So many news just write war headlines to sell a quick story. We need more refreshing analyzing journalism like Freddie’s . Am also half Swedish btw. Hope I can take a trip to some other countries soon without people freaking out. Pardon if I miss spell. 🙂
Well, I am not surprised if the Swedish approach is better for the economy. After all you made a conscious decision to accept additional deaths to keep the economy running. Now if that had been said straight out, I would disagree, but I would respect your choice. What I find hard to take is the Tegnell approach, not just his immense superiority, but insisting that *he* knows that this is not much worse than flu, and the number of dead would be the same regardless. He might be still proved right, but there is no way he (and he alone) could have known that for sure. If he wants to gamble people’s lives on his estimates he can at least have the grace to be humble about it. There was a time when UK policy was also to do nothing much and wait for herd immunity, and people kept asking how come Britain could be following a different ‘science-based’ policy when the science was supposedly the same everywhere. I find it significant that Sweden could adopt a policy that was so different to everyone else without ever wavering in the conviction that of course it was Sweden that was right and the rest of the world that was wrong.
Also I admit I am a little tired about the Swedish refrencees to the racist Danes. Of course we are ‘Brodrefolk’. Which I guess gives Sweden the kind of patronising superiority that big brothers feel towards younger siblings, and Denmark the resentment and irritation the younger siblings feel in return.
If you two could lighten up on the DK/SE bickering and focus on the reality as opposed to the strategy, imagine if the Swedish care homes and home help services had been running as they were in the 70’s/80’s. The number of deceased in Sweden would probably have been at least 50-60% less than it turned out to be. Take away the immigrant communities and it would be 70% less. My wife who’s worked in the home care sector for 40 years has witnessed at first hand the gradual deterioration and profit-orientated decline of this sector : privatisation, exodus of experienced swedish staff, recruitment of immigrant staff with limited language and social culture experience, younger swedes who would not dream of taking such demanding employment. Before Covid-19 old people in care were dying of malnutrition, lack of care, private enterprise focus on profit. The only difference with Covid-19 is the acceleration in time of death.
I never heard that Tegnell knew exactly how the flu would be, what I heard Tegnell said was that all indications pointed that the flu had low effect on children and mostly was dangerous to elderly. The Tegnell strategy has been to keep the number of infected and in need for hospital treatment at such I low level that the medical system could handle it. With as low impact as possible for the rest of society. I totally respect countries like Italy and UK who went in panic and lockdown because the elderly was dying at a high rate and the medical system could not handle all. But that was not the case in Sweden. I definitely don’t Tegnell gambled any strategy, he worked with this is whole life internationally and nationally. He made a calculation what would work best for Sweden. As Tegnell had said it very unfortunate that the disease spread to some elderly homes, but some elder homes have managed to handle it very well. They took the decision to close the homes and have zero dead. I find it interesting to se that in Danish news paper there are reports of a high mortality among Danish Somalis like we’d seen in Sweden with Swedish Somalis. Maybe the reason for that is that when Somalis get sick, their whole family come’s and visit. I don’t know if that is the case but that’s a discussion in the Swedish media. In Italy where children, mom, dad and grandparents live in the same home, could that explain the rapid spread there? I get it that UK and US bunch the Nordic countries together and treat us like we are all fairly the same. We are too small countries and population and not that interesting to get in all the details. But we who live here know there’s a lot of different. I don’t think there’s a right and wrong way in this pandemic. Every country has to make their own decision based on where they are economical, flu spread and health system. But I’m glad Sweden has stayed open as much as was possible. As for the racist Danes I don’t know what you mean. I like Denmark and it’s very popular among all my friends and relatives. Pardon if I misspell
Well, as it looks from here, Tegnell judged that everybody was going to get it anyway, and it was not too dangerous so that was not a problem. Just like the flu. The only thing needed was to to spread out the process so that the number of acute patients was not too big at any given time, and just accept that a limited number of people was going to die. The Danish Sundhedsstyrelse had similar ideas, as had some authorities in Britain. If it had been seasonal flu (I notice you called it ‘flu’, BTW) that would have been correct for sure, they had pandemic plans prepared specifically for flu. Countries that had experience of SARS went active straight away – they did not assume it was just like flu. China and Italy fairly quickly noticed that people were dying at an unprecedented rate and did not feel like assuming that you could treat it like another seasonal flu. But Tegnell just doubled down. He did not see any need to consider that this might be more dangerous than he had first thought. This is where I blame him. He may have been right or wrong, but on the available data there is no way he could be sure his first assumptions were correct. And if COVID proved to be more contagious and more dangerous than he first thought, at some point his policies could prove disastrous.
In fact this whole episode has made me think that maybe scientists are not the best people to take this kind of decision. It goes against the grain – I am a scientist myself, and believe firmly in evidence-based policy making, but it looks like scientists are not that good at taking decisions under high uncertainty. Politicians might be better in that respect (those that actually care about getting it right, as opposed to protecting their ego or getting the right headlines tomorrow, of course). In Denmark, for instance, the prime minster decided that the risks were too high to keep things nice and low-key as Sundhedsstyrelsen wanted, and took some action. In case this was not quite like the flu after all. And god on her.
Science remains sovereign (if you do it right) but you can see where scientists might be biased. We devote our careers to becoming certain, to understanding things, to making sure. So in a new and uncertain situation we are probably prone to assuming our known models remain good even when we are beyond the area where they have been tested. For one thing it feels acutely uncomfortable to admit that you do not understand what is happening. For another, how do you take reliable decisions when you have no model to work from? Even in uncertain situations we tend to make a hypothesis and go with that. Whereas what you really need to do is to get a realistic idea of the range and probabilities of possible outcomes, and then plan for alternatives.
As it looks from here, Tegnell assumed that COVID was about like the flu, not much more dangerous, might never get to Sweden anyway, and anyway there was nothing one could do. So he went for the standard flu pandemic plans, doing just enough to slow the pandemic down so that the system was not overwhelmed, and aimed for minimum disruption while he waited till herd immunity kicked in and the unavoidable deaths had happened. He may have noticed that elderly people were more vulnerable, but I am not aware that he did anything particular to protect them. The Danish Sundhedsstyrelse started with a similar approach, as did some UK authorities. If those assumptions had proved right (and the jury is still out) that would be the best approach – but there is just no way Tegnell could be particularly sure from the data available then (or even now?). Countries with experience of SARS (and access to the same scientific data) preferred a much more active approach. China and Italy noticed that people were dying at an unprecedented rate and did not choose to wait for herd immunity. Various countries proved that you could actually stop the epidemic locally. And countries like Denmark and the UK decided that it might be wiser not to just do the minimum and trust their health bureaucracies that it would be all right regardless. Tegnell just doubled down. I do not doubt that he sincerely believed that his assumptions were correct, and everybody else was just panicking, but to me that looks more like hubris, or gambling, than superior intellect. If you believe that Tegnell simply drew the correct, rational conclusion from available scientific data, you ought to explain why Sweden was about the only country to take a rational decision to that effect. Was the Swedish situation essentially different from that of all other countries? Or was Sweden the only country capable of drawing an obvious conclusion from sufficient data? And in either case: what is it that makes Sweden so unique among the nations of the world? Anyway, I am glad that Denmark decided to prioritise people’s lives over the economy in an uncertain situation – and that Denmark seems to have had rather fewer deaths for whatever reason.
Actually, this whole affair has made me think that scientists may not be the best people to take this kind of decision. It goes against the grain ““ I am a scientist myself and I firmly believe in evidence-based policy making. But it looks like scientists may not be the best to take decisions under high uncertainty. Of course you need to get what data there are, and science is sovereign for that. But it is easy to see why scientists might be biased: As scientists we have dedicated our career to producing ordered, reliable understanding of the world. I suspect that leaves us with a need for understanding and a bias towards trusting our models regardless, sometimes way beyond the range of situations they have been validated for (which is something I seem to have noticed a lot under the COVID epidemic). For one thing it can be acutely uncomfortable to consider that we may not actually understand what is going on. For another, how can we decide what to do if we do not have any model to work with? Even where the science is uncertain, I think we tend to make a hypothesis and go with that till something better takes its place. Unfortunately, what is needed under high uncertainty is something else: A fair appreciation of all the alternative possibilities and how likely they are, and a policy that takes all of them into account. And here other profession ““ even politicians – might have more experience to draw on.
As for the racist Danes, Freddie Sayers kindly suggested that the Danish ‘rush’ to close their borders was best explained by the ‘anti-immigration version of the Social Democrats who currently hold power there’. I thought that was worth a comment.
Seems a lot of us about, which statistically seems strange – time for a lockdown on us half Swedes to reduce transmission.
Frederick Hastings
3 years ago
“Politics is downstream from culture,” postulated the late Andrew Breitbart, to which this most edifying essay lends credence.
rperkins
3 years ago
Each population has a proportion of people not susceptible to Covid-19, probably because of genetics and/or previous exposure to other Coronaviruses. I guess this proportion is more than 70% in the UK. We can ‘flatten the curve’ but without a vaccine the virus will persist somewhere in the World and eventually infect nearly every susceptible person.
Scott A
3 years ago
Well put, and interesting throughout. I’d only argue with the idea that these concepts are ‘not libertarian’. American libertarianism, broadly understood, is a mess of conflicting ideas and ideologies, but the older, intellectually coherent concept of libertarian society revolves around the kind of shared cultural norms you talk about in the article. Freedom within limits (the limits, in your example, being voluntary and amounting to not violating others’ freedoms by encroaching on their space) sounds like a idyllic libertarian concept to me.
More generally, Sweden is fascinating in that it is simultaneously extremely libertarian and not at all libertarian. Locally, it’s quite close. High levels of local autonomy, relatively limited interference in people’s lives, etc. Nationally, it’s the opposite; massive taxation and welfare state structures, etc. It’s an interesting balance. I don’t really have a conclusion; just find it to be a fascinating country.
I came here to say what you said. Some libertarianism – the kind of libertarianism with which Freddie is familiar – is akin to libertinism. But traditional, well-understood libertarianism is perfectly compatible with a cohesive society in which people self-govern around shared cultural norms. Bravo for the Swedes!
blatnick39
3 years ago
Wonderful article that gave me a gut level feel for why Sweden reacted as it did during this time, as well as a feel for the Swedish people as a whole. Beautifully explained.
And in regard to the US, one sentence stood out to me: “The fragmented and highly individualistic culture of the UK and US, without much by way of universally shared values to fall back on, is a big part of why the response in those countries has been so uncertain and the debate so poisonous.” Yes, we have always been a highly individualistic society. But through generations, we did have universally shared values. To be American meant something. People would come from all over the world to live here and blend into what was referred to as a ‘melting pot’. No longer. It has been ‘educated/indoctrinated’ out of our young for a few generations now. There are no longer universally shared values. There are only shifting values now that are created out of thin air that no one can keep up with them. And the commonality that was our melting pot has been turned into a collectivist platter with each tribe demanding their rules, for their purposes. We are in a fight for our soul here. We can barely agree on what to call a woman or man, let alone how to deal with Covid. While individuals may have ideas on what our response should have been, the collectives have taken over to push and pull us all into a mass of ridiculous poses and pointing fingers.
Much of our policy was inspired by the american optimism after ww2. Our main politicians loved the american energy and attitude. If one reads modern history, one can argue that the goal of the swedish ‘strong state’ was to give e veryone in sweden the opportunities to succeed. To level the chances . Sadly we’ve become more segregated the last 30 years thanks to insane privatisations, of housing, schools and social care, more than even in Britain I guess.
Andrea X
3 years ago
Nothing to add, except, thank you!
T J Putnam
3 years ago
Helpful introduction to some key elements of Swedish culture to bear in mind along with Constitutional limitats on the powers of central government in getting your mind round their approach to CoVid 19. The idea that freedoms entail responsibility is not uniquely Swedish or even particularly left wing, nor is a broader awareness of the need to respect objective processes and the consequences of human action. Such principles were very much part of the picture in small town Vermont when I was young and are also evident in rural France where I live now. Regular engagement with natural processes, eg through agriculture, is one helpful element, another is education emphasising principles and responsibility.
Mike Ryan
3 years ago
Great piece. Thanks Freddie.
chris sullivan
3 years ago
NZ has also lost its culture to the US media/corporate/PC liberal onslaught, and since education has also been captured the number of NZers truly able to form an informed opinion about anything is low. I am gobsmacked how useless Phd’s are around the world. During our lockdown the number of people ‘informing’ on neighbours for pushing stupid boundaries sadly reminded me of how easily stupid anxious people roll over before a quasi legal entity..nuff said
Andy Ward
3 years ago
So I am currently living in the Canary Islands – we were supposed to be going to the Uk for a few weeks this Summer to see family, we go every Summer. But the insistence on quarantining for two weeks upon arrival (even though the incidence rate of Covid where I live is almost 0) has put the kerbosh on our plans. So given Sweden is open for business and very much aligned with my own thinking on this nonsense, any suggestions of where two forty something adults and one 10 year old could spend 4 or 5 nights in Sweden – having never been before? I like to relax, chill out, my wife does prefer the cities / more cosmopolitan areas…
My hometown Stockholm of course! Welcome to one of the safest places to travel. Most of the population is immune to Sars2. No facemasks required and no risk of lockdown/quarantine AND the hotels are really cheap this summer……
klauskroy
3 years ago
njuta (av vad gott är), allemansrätt, lagom – like spring water high up in the mountains – how wonderful! Thank you for your precise and powerful prose
Paul Lock
3 years ago
Nationalism is all the rage because it gives the common man a sense of ownership and identity. But if he can’t roam the land, what’s that ownership worth? The Swedish idea of allemansratt complements nationalist politics perfectly. But the chances of Bunter and his pals extending the right to roam across the 50% of England that’s owned by less than 1% of its people are zero – it’s the 1%, the corporations and oligarchs that fund the Tories.
perrywidhalm
3 years ago
Interesting and well-written essay. Thanks!
Nick Whitehouse
3 years ago
A very depressing article – from a British point of view.
We seem to have lost the ability to be considerate to others here. Does anybody have any ideas as to why?
British sits somewhere in between Northern Europe and Latin Europe – culturally speaking. @Mark Corby Sweden/Germany/Netherlands are far more “socialistic” than UK, if your definition is the welfare state.
Well envy may also be spread by TV advertising and all those awful “my wonderful house” programmes too. I would say a culture of greed and selfishness has been encouraged, particularly since 1979.
I honestly think that’s more true on social media Or in public groups. On their own and in their homes Brits seem far more relaxed. During recent walking holiday this old woman was constantly fetched bottles of water, welcomed into homes to rest without any thought for masks etc and driven to destinations when weather became just too hot. Britons are for the most part tolerant, sensible and kind. They enjoy the richness of their countryside and their freedom to roam. But for good or ill, most seem prepared to go with the flow and follow government regulation rather than stand up and challenge whether the erosion of freedoms is worth it. The current measures will probably just slowly crumble away, as people realise that a rise in cases isn’t a necessarily rise in deaths or serious illnesses, and as they learn more about the resilience of their own immune systems, built up over millions of years of inhabiting the same world as viruses. I’d advise starting by listening to Sarika Gupta on Lockdown TV or Dr John Lee on the Brendan O’Neill Show. The later also has an excellent interview w Lionel Shriver recorded about three months ago.
I think you’re spot on. Our neighbours & little village street have all being very concerned about one another. Narrow, medieval street, no paving, gutters Or streetlights. Some weed the common frontage, I cut neighbours hedges and chatted on Thursday claps for a while. Just 5 miles to the nearest city & no one is considerate. Which is more characteristic of U.K.? Perhaps it’s both!
But isn’t that community spirit in places outside the UK also generally more prevalent in smaller and/or rural and/or island and/or less modernised areas, and less prevalent in cities? When I first holidayed in Symi, a small Greek island, the man who drove our, and several other people’s, luggage up from the ferry unloaded it in the square and left it to bring along the narrow paths on foot later. No problem, it will be safe, he said. And it was. But I suspect he would not do that in Athens.
That’s the most odd thing about all this – I rarely encounter someone who does not think that the response to covid is bonkers (the technical term). Yet they are not rebelling and just accepting the diktats thrown at them. Mind my Gran always maintained we were all going soft.
This is well said. In general I find my fellow Brits to be respectful of each other face to face but social media would give a very different perspective. Perhaps smaller rural communities are better at appreciating that we all have to live together harmoniously than bigger urban ones – maybe partly a consequence of having more ‘personal space’ in the countryside.
I agree with you that in time there may well be a gradual erosion of the perceived importance of distancing etc, on the proviso that we do not see a large increase in deaths/hospitalisations.
Also that for the majority of people in the UK the path of least distress is to go along with what is being asked of them, irrespective of the rights or wrongs. They do not consider it worthwhile to invest huge energy in researching or questioning the messaging. I suspect that the commenters on this board represent the minority, in that we probably on the whole are either frustrated by what we see as a disproportionate reaction to CV or frustrated by those who deny that the response was warranted.
Unfortunately, for those of us who do perceive the government response to be inappropriate, waiting for the gradual erosion of measures seems a very unsatisfactory outcome. That is why alternative approaches like https://greenbandredband.com are needed.
T Doyle
3 years ago
Interesting article. Could anyone write a similar piece about the U.K. or England? What are our values? How do we preserve our freedom, our sense of enjoyment? Do we have words that encapsulate how we think and feel?
graham9
3 years ago
I am married to a Swede and have a beautiful house up in Orsa, Dalarna. However, my viewpoint is very simple in that it does not really matter about your culture, social norms and behaviour of the majority of the population, since in every country/society, you will unfortunately find a minimum of 10% of the population who are total morons and mess it up for everyone else. Even in lovely Dalarna (countryside/middle of nowhere) I was sent videos of huge parties in doors with over 500 people drinking and dancing like sardines and no masks and the same in Stockholm for graduation parties etc,etc. It will spike again in Sweden due to this and lack of masks etc. Sweden will face a horrible Autumn/Winter as everybody has to go inside and the bug will spread (don’t believe the herd immunity claims either). I missed my summer holiday in Sweden this year thanks to the idiotic policies of the government since I refuse to put my family at risk. And P.S it is not doing so well. https://www.ft.com/content/…
On the winter resurgence risk, are you concerned theoretically, or have you seen or read something that prompts you to regard it as likely, or worse? I think it’s unlikely. In U.K., our massed infections look to have really got going in late Feb & peak death rate was Apr 8-10, followed by 15 weeks of steady decline. Gupta et al show that a low herd immunity threshold would fit the data better than other explanations for the 99% fall in all endpoints.
“It will spike again in Sweden due to this and lack of masks etc. Sweden will face a horrible Autumn/Winter as everybody has to go inside and the bug will spread (don’t believe the herd immunity claims either).” On what do you base this claim? How do you explain that severely hit regions in Italy see very few new cases despite having much less harsh restrictions in place?
There is a growing collection of thinking related to the percentage of the population that appears to have some underlying immunity to COVID 19 based on factors such as how their immune systems dealt with other coronaviruses, genetic differences and past immunizations. An article in this weekend’s Washington Post put the number around 40%, maybe a bit higher. If you add that to the percentage of people who got the virus in hotbeds like Northern Italy or the New York metro region this spring (20-30% is not an unreasonable estimate based on antibody tests, which increasingly appear to under-count, as well as extrapolations from fatalities) then you start to get hotbeds with 60-70% immunity at this point. That is something like “herd immunity” and I bet those areas won’t have big new spikes.
Now, does that mean most areas are bound to have the virus run through 20-30% of the population, meaning nearly half the people not harboring preexisting immunity? If yes, filling that “quota” with people under 50, who have VERY LOW death rates, and keeping them away from those who are older, plus getting better and better at treating those who are sick, seems smart.
Agree with you completely. It’s a relief that my views along these lines, developing in me since late April, are now commonplace if not yet mainstream. Meanwhile our stupid U.K. government is going round mass testing healthy young people then locking down when they find ‘cases’. It’s an act of self Harm which will increase deaths. Each easy survivor acts as an additional immunological firebreak. We want lots of them, so closing schools was idiotic.
Italy was the first country in EU to get hit (bad luck) . Sweden had time to prepare, it did not. If you judge Sweden by its own GOV publicly stated goals, the government has failed 1) protect the elderly – it failed 2) test and track – it failed (gotten better may be)
And its economic hit is as bad as Norway/Denmark/Finland.
I didn’t notice at first but it’s rather good. I’m not sure if it’s just the dancing that is sardine-like, or the drinking as well. A bit oily for my tastes.
I think the chances of that are … zero. If you are infected your response will be in a week or so. For most people the response is … nothing, asymptomatic, no symptoms. The fact that reported infections and deaths are rapidly approaching zero, all the while no masks and not much social distancing, is concrete evidence that there IS immunity. There is no other explanation.
I won’t categorically rule out some sort of second wave during colder weather, given that many respiratory viruses have a strong seasonal pattern.
Graham’s broader argument, however, if anything argues against such a wave in Sweden.
For the time being, Sweden has reached a very low level of transmission of this virus. Reported COVID fatalities (per Worldometer) have steadily declined and are now at approximately 1 per day.
And that’s with the people who would “mess it up for everyone else” doing whatever they’re going to do, with the coronavirus circulating for several months. It’s logical to think that a disproportionate number of that sub-group of the population already got infected at some point, because they’re the ones who are going to keep socializing while ignoring social distancing rules. Or, at least, they’re going to keep doing that unless they’re stuck at home due to a combination of (1) legal penalties and (2) every place they’d want to go being ordered to close, neither of which occurred in Sweden.
The places to worry most about a big resurgence of transmission are countries where the virus was suppressed without many people infected. Those are the places where even so-called superspreaders likely haven’t had the virus. (And Graham is describing a subset of people as likely superspreaders due to lack of caution in their behavior.)
Niels Georg Bach
3 years ago
I’m sorry Sweden are in many regards extreme laizzez faire. In regard to crime the ruling left wing middle class don’t care if young immigrants murder each other, the number of shootings and bomb donations is scaring, as is the number of armed robberies, where young peoplerob other young people, The number of burned down pre schools is the highest in Europe. The number of corona dead is by English numbers small, but the percentage is among Europes highest. One reason is that elderly care home management is beyond par. The municipalities has no control manegement or they don’t care because they don’t have the money. And the economy is going downwards. Too.
They are not just killing each other. A 12 year old Swedish girl was killed in a drive-by shooting last week while walking the dog.
Giulia Khawaja
3 years ago
Unfortunately for me Holland should not be included in the no mask group. Prior to my journey to Holland I have been sent a list of what masks are acceptable. Apparently my self made cotton scarf type is not, neither is my bought one with a ventilator. If I fail to wear one, even in the family car I can be fined several thousand euros. It seems much more stringent than the U.K.
Sad to read this (it was originally referred to Giulia comment, but it applies for Frederick too. I was talking to a German friend living in Amsterdam few days ago and she told me her perception it is like life goes on as normal
I am from Holland and like always in Holland we don’t look at the facts (we couldn’t care less) but we make compromises. So the mayors in Holland have been granted the right by the central government to experiment with mouthmasks. Some cities do, some cities don’t and if they do, than usually it’s only a few shoppingstreets and in Amsterdam ofcourse the redlight-district. It’s still in a very early stage and for now it’s mainly Amsterdam and Rotterdam who have some kind of regime/regulation but in a few weeks it could be total chaos from one city to another. Only in public transportation it’s mandatory on a national level. Personally I think the world has gone mad, the Netherlands included.
Not sure who has been sending this list to you. As Frederik pointed out below, it is only mandatory to wear facial masks in public transportation. We have just been spending a weekend in Zeeland as an escape from the Belgian madness: I have seen only 4 people within 2 days wearing a mask.
Robin Bury
3 years ago
Very good article. The strong individualistic culture in the USA and dreadful leadership from the GOP highlights the essential selfishness of US society and of course the appalling health care system built on care for the wealthy. Unlike Canada and Sweden. But please use the term ‘physical distancing’, not ‘social distancing’, as recommended by the World Health Organisation…I mentioned this before. Take note!
“… strong individualistic culture in the USA” Americans love the “free” welfare state as much as anyone else. Look at Medicare and old white people that vote. As a Tea Party member said “keep your government hands out of my Medicare”.
Cheryl Jones
3 years ago
I have a lot of time for Freddy, and the Swedes. But I think he’s wrong that Britain (and the US) don’t have shared values. If you’re a Brit you know exactly what it means and you feel it in your blood and guts (as I think everyone feels it about their country otherwise people wouldn’t cling to those identities so much when they emigrate). Individual freedom is also chained to personal responsibility, or as us Brits call it ‘manners’ and ‘duty’. If we’ve lost that at all it is due to the splintering of our nation by globalisation, multiculturalism and mass immigration. Brexit is a perfect example of a very British resistance to those things (politely, at the ballot box) because we DO have a sense of self as a nation and we want to preserve it before it’s too late. And don’t forget that the UK initially took the same view as Sweden, but the political pile-on, shaming and accusations of murder, plus the ICL scaremongering report, forced a change of course which is now hellishly difficult to extricate ourselves from and is being used as a political brickbat by the (Remain, it has to be said ) opposition and MSM who can sit back and say whatever they like. And do. I’ve been watching and studying the media reporting – and I will not forget.
This sense of manners and duty is being rapidly diminished. I note, for example, the huge quantity of litter now apparent in almost every British town, and along every motorway without exception. This to me seems symptomatic of the break of a social contract: when even basic aesthetic regard for your environment, alongside the sentiment, “to hell with anyone who finds my litter disgusting”, is sure sign that there fewer and fewer social bonds that unite the British.
Dan Poynton
3 years ago
So enlightening, thank you. And it makes me almost weep to think that the day is fast approaching when the Swedes’ innate sense (therefore largely self-policing, no doubt) of Lagom will be crushed mercilessly by a hyper-immigration system which can never produce integration fast enough to keep up with its rate. A type of enlightened and compassionate cultural suicide.
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3 years ago
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Freddie Sayers (being half Swedish?) is missing a few aspects. One is that Sweden is known for a very high level of social control. If moral pressure and social disapproval are strong enough to control people there is less need for regulations. The (lack of) freedom for individuals can be about the same in either case.
Another is a much higher Swedish deference to authority. I do not believe that Swedish immigration policies are more welcoming because Swedes are inherently nicer than Danes. Both countries started with an educated elite in favour of immigration, and much popular discontent. Only in Sweden the educated elite managed to impose itself on the population in a way they failed to do in Denmark. The Social Democrats ‘who currently hold power in Denmark’ are tough on immigration – reluctantly – because that is the only way any party can get a majority. Except for some progressive hold-outs ‘Tough on immigration’ is for good or ill the political consensus in Denmark.
In prioritising skiing holidays and graduation parties over precautionary health measures, Tegnell is making a trade-off: letting Sweden continue to njuta in peace is worth some people dying. That is the kind of trade-off that governments are supposed to make. But the balance depends rather critically on how many people are likely to die, and how effective the health measures can be. Tegnell has from the beginning taken for granted that it was not going to be very dangerous, and there was nothing anybody could do anyway. He may still end up being proved right, *but there was no way he could know that from the available evidence*. He was, in effect, gambling. Danish health authorities too would have liked to stick to their prepared plans (even if they were prepared for the flu, a different disease) assumed they already knew all they needed, and gone ahead without rocking the boat. But Danish politicians, maybe more used to decision making under uncertainty than the scientists, decided to take more drastic action – and thank God for that. In Sweden the government deferred to the health authorities, the population deferred to the government (even as the death tolls mounted) and people happily assumed that if Sweden is out of step with the rest of the world it only proves how superior Sweden is. To each his own, I guess.
It seems increasingly evident that everybody panicked, including Sweden. Whereas there were fewer mandated restrictions in Sweden, nonetheless, Swedes locked themselves down. Do they do this every flu season ? Have they done this for pandemics past ?
I’m not sure panic is a reasonable description for what happened. In some cases, sure. Same in U.K. where my wife & I have friends where both of a couple have insisted that they won’t return to prior behaviours until there’s a vaccine, even if it’s years. We’ve already gone back to normal as much as is possible. That’s because my family benefits from me being an experienced life scientist so I’ve been able to review all the published source documents upon which SAGE made its recommendations. Thereafter to read all papers & interviews including on Lockdown TV with many experts. It’s clear that the virus has moved through all the European populations. In U.K. we’re in the last 1-2% of events in this pandemic. It’s theoretically possible there could be a winter resurgence but no data anywhere indicates that as a likelihood.
Last 1-2% of events in this pandemic? Really? What is the cause? Have we reached herd immunity now? References welcome. Meanwhile I shall keep to social isolation as much as possible (to be fair, not a great hardship i my case).
@Michael Yeadon. OK, I saw your post above. I cannot evaluate if it makes sense to assume that, essentially, about half the population was immune or not bothered by the virus in the first place. But in a crowd of people who all assume the best without evidence and who are furious that anyone dares interfere with their freedom of movement just becauset there is a lethal pandemic, well, you are the first, Tegnell included, that I find worrth taking seriously. I shall still keep isolated till we know that the pandemic has abated, but let us hope you are right.
Thank you for your uncommon courtesy. For myself, I was at first very frightened. I’m just old enough to be at 1% risk of dying if I caught the virus & my reaction to this told me I’m nowhere near ready to go! I have always fully complied with lockdown, social distancing & masks, even though I’m as sure as I can be that they have no protective benefit to others. I know it’s a different setting, but this is the only peer reviewed, randomised controlled trial & it looks like medical mask vs usual practise didn’t protect. Face cloths were slightly worse than the other wo groups. The endpoint is respiratory virus infection, some of it clinically confirmed. The subjects, though working around hospitals, are most likely to be the sources as much as the targets of viruses. It’s really a complex workplace study. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.go…
I think it’s an understanding which requires a lot of reading to bring together the elements making that the best explanation of the overall profile. The best references include Drosten on preexisting T-cell reactivity https://www.medrxiv.org/con… And Ioniddes on infection fatality ratios: https://www.medrxiv.org/con… Finally, Gupta or Gomez on how low the herd immunity threshold is likely to be. https://www.medrxiv.org/con…
You don’t need to read lots of papers to decide to live a normal life. It’s obvious that the increased mortality risk over a lifetime from Covid is miniscule, so why live in fear?!
Those interested in estimates of infection fatality rate might choose to read this paper. It’s old & I’ll see if it’s been superseded. The number the authors alight upon is 0.27%. https://www.medrxiv.org/con… As they say though, IFR is not a fixed thing. It depends on who is infected. There certainly are cohorts in whom IFR is >1%, others where it’s <0.05% or less. We need an estimate representative of the population of the country we live in, if we wish to gain a better understanding of how things stand around us.
andyprattt
3 years ago
Thank you, what a good article, I very much agree, and have enjoyed sveral articles by Freddy. It’s no coincidence either that Sweden is a counry where the Greens are relatively strong politically
They are also strong in Germany (where the movement began) and France (last local election).
Mike Hearn
3 years ago
Well written Freddie. I would really like to believe your thesis but unfortunately I don’t.
As far as I can tell opinion polls are pretty consistently the same everywhere: whatever it’s perceived that the experts recommend is the most popular position. I suspect if Anders Tegnell didn’t exist then Sweden would have very similar sorts of COVID ‘experts’ as everywhere else, Sweden’s response would be similar to that of Germany or the Netherlands, and that would be popular as well.
I’m pretty sure what happened in Sweden is the result of Anders Tegnell being left alone to basically shape the response as he saw fit, rather than what happened in the UK where the government was advised by committees of academics who could each stake personal ownership on a tiny aspect of the response, with nobody in particular being responsible for the overall result. In Sweden there appears to be no equivalent of SAGE (lucky for them), and thus it fell to Tegnell to weigh all the aspects of the response. Not just the medical aspects but also cultural and economic aspects. He did an exemplary job, but I suspect he’d have fared far worse if put in a committee and told “shut up about economics and focus on the epidemiology”.
Having known quite a few Swedes, I do feel they were generally unflappable and relaxed. But I also know it’s tempting to over-generalise and indulge in national stereotypes, only to get a shock when you encounter people who don’t fit the mold at all.
fsmazer0lles
3 years ago
Is allemansrätt, meaning something like “everyone’s right to roam” written in the Swedish constitution which is why they cannot enforce a lockdown without changing it?
Here comes a simplified explanation: Allemansrätten has nothing to do with lockdown and it is not a right to roam free. However, it is a right for every Swede to have access to the nature, walk and ride through the nature, pick flowers, berries etc.
The regulation regarding “lockdown” connected with a pandemic is in the hands of the regional infectious Disease Control officer/doctor to decide about under the present law.
It also exists in the whole of northern europe, even in Scotland (which I count to europe). Austria. Germany, from where I guess we translated “jedermannsrecht”.
David Goldsmith
3 years ago
Certainly Freddie an interesting article. If perhaps a tad smug, in that annoying Swedish way they have (and I do like them, and their country, and have spent time there in different places and assuming different roles). However, your article would make perfect sense, and be more instructive, if Sweden had not done so badly, so very badly, in comparison with Norway, Denmark and Finland. You cannot pretend that the virtues you extol do not exist in Denmark, Norway, or Finland, because you know they do. Why then did they lock-down and Sweden was less strict (terrible to say laissez-faire, shocking)? Why did Sweden have around 8000 cases per million population compared to around 1,500-2,500 cases pmp in the other three countries? Despite Denmark doing vastly MORE testing? The Swedish response not tracking or tracing cases was calamitous, and as appalling as the UK (and for the same reason – lack of pandemic preparedness). The Swedish mortality is around 600 ppm compared to 50-100 for the other three countries. Again – why? Do you not think these metrics matter far more than some romantic blithering about lagom etc? I count success (as a former doctor) as saving lives. The nursing home scandal in Sweden was another alarming failure. What is it about smug self-satisfied Sweden that it pretends it is faring well when so many people died, and far more than need have been the case had they acted to retard the spread of the viral infection more effectively using different measures, and by tracking tracing and isolating infected people? A shame a nicely written article simply avoids the difficult conversations, another terrible Swedish failing!
Craig Hutchinson
3 years ago
Another great piece Freddie. You and UnHerd have been a real breath of sanity during the covid-mania. In New Zealand where our government is really doubling down and our media surely must be among the worst most irresponsible anywhere (a big call I know given the examples around) you have been a psychological life saver. I’ve just gone through and bookmarked all your pieces/interviews I’ve used as I’ve tried to get people to at least look at things rationally. I hadn’t realised how many there were. I’m working with a group of (mainly) medical academics (http://www.covidplanb.co.nz) who have been trying to penetrate the media fog for months to try and present a more rational narrative with no success (we’ve got Prof. Gupta among others on a livestream video-conference tomorrow so here’s hoping). Given the government has re-applied lockdowns and doesn’t intend on letting go until after the election we need to step things up again, and we’ve all got better things to do. I needed to refresh my memory on some things, dates, etc. So back to UnHerd. Anyway, thanks for it all. I’ll subscribe when I get back to earning myself.
anna.lallerstedt
3 years ago
I wouldn’t agree about that “shielding of vulnerable groups, while keeping society as open as possible” is the right description of the Swedish strategy. Most of the deaths has been in vulnerable groups and the ones that isn’t dead yet (me), is suffering since march, from a “lookdown” in their homes, without beeing able to make their shopping or transports or meet anyone. The reason is that our (?) prime minister Löfven and FHM (Tegnell) has refused to take decision on obligatory masks to protect vulnerable groups from asymptomatic infection. At the same time the public transportations are reported to be crowded (no distance what so ever) and young people are seen in restaurants, at beaches etc enjoying their time. Tegnell e-mails published recently indicated that the secret agenda has been herd immunity, and my guess is that that is the reason why “the mask decision” is likely never to be taken. The vulnerable people in Sweden are sacrificed again. Sweden is a class society and the old people has not much value here.
jizazkn jizazkn
3 years ago
Yes, it is indeed an interesting “paradox”. But, I increasingly suspect – similar to what’s happening in the “USSA” – the “Soros insurrection” of DemonRAT lib-t**d [primarily] wenches in to positions of legal/political power, Sweden and its “protege” sister “Mogahdishu on the Mississppi”, “Somali-apolis” in “Somali-sota” is self-destructing, regardless the embed capitalist resolve of “biz as usual” to maintain some sort of semblance to national independence/personal freedoms by . . . PROSPERITY.
dryan2931
3 years ago
Great article. The first thing that comes to mind for me, in understanding their quite calculated, yet surprising response to the pandemic threat, is a cultural tradition that has been made possible by at least a basic, universal endorsement of common socio-cultural priorities. An unspoken understanding exists across a society, that up until fairly recently has been quite homogeneous in its make up. The US has traditionally taken pride in a system that encourages all to come and partake of individual basic freedoms; to participate in a system of boundless opportunity and unlimited possibilities. The unforeseen problem that is becoming increasingly apparent is both a lack of emphasis-on (by immigration policy makers) and a lack of willingness-to (by an evermore diverse group of immigrants) see the importance of assimilation into a society who’s culture is increasingly struggling to identify a basic minimum standard of what it means to call oneself an “American”. Sprinkle in a frequent peppering of identity politics and the “apple pie and hot dogs” image just seems to be nothing more than fodder for movies like “Field of Dreams”.
velwalters
3 years ago
I may have missed any posts on this, but should we not question why there is no discussion about how to prevent pandemics, or lessen their likelihood? According to David Waltner -Toewns in his book On Pandemics, the shameful way we treat the planet and the creatures we share it with is at the base of every zoonotic disease and Covid 19 is one of many zoonotic diseases. How are we addressing that? Where is the discussion about how to make yourself healthier and what you can do to protect yourself, other than wearing a mask and hiding away? We will all die from destroying our planet which is continuing as we write, and so the idea we are protecting people by social distancing and wearing masks is put into a very different perspective.
dmack16
3 years ago
A measured article much like the Swedes’ response (except the same mistakes we made with care homes) No-one wants the Swedes to do well otherwise it puts our draconian response into dispute. Although people are crowing over the poor economy Sweden has temporarily as a result, no-one seems to mention the fact that their health system was operating for other vulnerable members of the community. Compare that with the estimated 30k deaths anticipated from undiagnosed cancer in the UK alone, along with other physical and mental illnesses. Ditto education. Ditto employment. They have wisely taken the long term view and we will see how sensible that was very soon………….
Jeremy Smith
3 years ago
I am an American in London (since 2006) and i have spent an enormous amount of time working (investment banking, structured products) with clients from Northern Europe. So I would like to think I know something (not everything) about that part of the world. All those countries have high migration numbers (even before the 2015 crisis) so demography is not the explanation. Nor is individual freedoms, check World Value Survey and see where Sweden scores vs. USA/UK. Do the Germans/Swedes/Dutch recycle 2x as much the British….because British are more individualistic? The difference is that in all those countries the population accepts (and demands) a well functioning state. And it is willing to pay for it. Someone (who?) said that “UK wants European welfare with American levels of taxation. In America we just borrow money and pretend that we don’t have a state to finance. Swedish policy (based on SWE GOV own goals) has been a failure, and one explanation why is because the government’s performance has been declining for a very long time (see criminality). The GOV is too busy fighting Social Justice battles. SWE GOV just dropped the ball, is that simple. Henrik Jonsson (youtube commentary) explains the (non) working of Swedish state very well (IMHO):
This article plays down the COVID mortality rate in Sweden. It is well above the US mortality rate which is itself incredibly high. It is over seven times the average rate of the other three Scandinavian countries. If Sweden had been like that of its neighbors then about 5,000 Swedes would not have died. If Swedes can accept this, fine. But don’t sell it to the rest of the world as something to be admired.
The evidence elsewhere suggests strongly that lockdown made no measurable difference to the rate of transmission of the virus. You do know that it was never expected that lockdown would reduce deaths? And it didn’t. Once you realise that, then you’re forced to look for other causes of differential outcomes, such as initial infection seeding rate (thought v likely to have been drivers in U.K. & US, through exceptionally high visitor rates to London & NY) & especially to varying extents of prior resistance to the virus. Even Prof Whitty, the U.K. CMO, accents that the pandemic had turned from expansion to slow decline before lockdown (statement made to a parliamentary select cmte recently). So this isn’t a marginal idea, but a mainstream one, even though for understandable reasons, authorities are happiest being quiet about it.
Interesting. Are you saying that the course of the pandemic is independent of the behaviour of the population ? (??) Or that the behaviour of the populatoin is independent onf government instructions? References welcome.
I understand it to be both. If you’re willing to explore, try OurWorldInData.org and select the countries & data representation of interest. The timecourse of uk & Sweden are superimposed. Not similar, but identical. Not talking of numbers but the shape of the daily deaths vs time function. That’s one piece of evidence that might prompt a person to ask a question about the efficacy of lockdown. Another is from our own Prof Whitty. In a parliamentary select committee hearing recently he agreed that the pandemic had turned from rapid expansion (R>>1) to slow contraction (R<1) BEFORE lockdown. This can be confirmed by inspection of the daily deaths curve, where peak was April 8th. The interval between infection and death varies, but median estimates are around 24 days. Lockdown was just 16 days before peak deaths. As lockdown didn’t turn the pandemic, something else must have. I now believe it was the rapidly diminishing remaining % susceptible.
Or people could have done a lot of the reduced social distancing by themselves, before BJ got around to give any instructions. i started working from home a short week before the order. It sounds rather counterintuitive to conclude that such massive social changes as we have had have exactly zero effect – all on the basis of a similarity between graphs without a clear understading of the underlying mechanism. But I am not up to discussing the details. We will soon know if the pandemic really is over and all but 1-2% of the deaths have already happened, as you suggest.
I think we ought to sort out this elemetal confusion from the off. Constant use of incorrect or made up names just makes the virus more scary and harder to pin down. SARS-CoV2 is the novel corona virus. It is a specific virus distinguished by its RNA from other corona viruses. There is currently no fool proof test for its presence. Current knowledge holds that SARS-CoV2 and HKU1 are species of one genus – like Tiger and Lion in the Panthera genus. This genus belong to the felidie family including all cats. The parralel with viruses complicates things, because so little is known they are often divided in “quasispecies. So best to think of Viruses as “beer” Corona Viruses as “lager” and SARS-CoV2 as “Stella Artois” (its big in Belgium)
Keep repeating a lie and will become true. The comparison has been debunked so many times and with so many details, there are no more excuses of ignorance for who keep bringing this up.
To judge if something is incredibly high, the only more or less objective standard is the excess mortality per country. Sweden is quite low, lower than most countries that have gone mad (like the UK and southern Europe). I rest my case, look it up for yourself if you’re really interested in the facts.
There was basically no excess mortality in the season of acute respiratory illnesses for 2019/20 when you compare the season with the one’s of the past 30 years: shorturl.at/xADX4 … there might have been mortality spikes in some regions, but overall, 2019/20 belongs to the seasons with lowest death counts over the part 30 years.
ciaparker2
3 years ago
There have been about 84,000 cases of Covid in Sweden, nearly six thousand deaths, 572 deaths per million, which is much higher than the US. All the Scandinavian countries share similar values, yet all the others locked down and implemented stricter measures, and saw dramatically fewer deaths. Tegnell was hoping to reach herd immunity quickly, and was willing to sacrifice these lives to get it over with quickly and get back to normal. Most countries have acted as though all lives matter, but Sweden in this instance did not. Schools below the high school level were not closed, and it was not permitted that either students or teachers stay home, even though many wanted to. When deaths in Sweden exploded as a result of Sweden’s hoping to benefit from being the only country in the world with an unlocked-down economy, all of its neighboring countries closed the borders with Sweden, not wanting to import the pestilence so rampant there.
The Christian standpoint is to protect human life, heal the sick, prevent suffering. Sweden did not shoulder this responsibility as well as everyone else has. It is still uncertain that herd immunity to coronavirus is possible. Antibodies seem to disappear very quickly, and many have gotten the disease twice or more, possibly different strains. Many long-haulers continue to suffer serious symptom even months after apparent recovery. What has Sweden gained from its gamble which cost thousands of lives? There’s another verse in the Bible which says: Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.
Yes I agree with ‘prevent suffering’. That’s behind the whole Swedish strategy. Which in my world translates to protect the most vulnerable, which I’m sure is an universal virtue. Best described in Matthew 25:40-45 To let all children go to school. To reduce their anxiety and meet their friends. To give them hope for the future. What can be more important?
Most countries have not acted as if all lives matter – They have acted as if lives lost to Covid are a tragedy and lives lost as collateral (through deaths from despair, the relegation of all other conditions for treatment; additional deaths around the world from starvation and poverty etc.), are a secondary concern. ‘Zero Covid’ has become an almost religious crusade – with all the anti human and anti reason consequences that those particular follies usually entail.
There is no evidence to suggest people have been re-infected with Covid 19 – experiences which suggested such in South Korea were merely the detection of fragments of the original infection. Herd immunity – if not possible – would render the hunt for a vaccine to be an irrelevance. Increasingly immunologists are coming forward to remind us that immunity can be expressed through different channels – rather than just anti bodies. The otherwise arbitrary 20% infection ceiling in all epicentres that is reached according to anti body tests suggest that these deserve consideration as alternatives to explain this cut off point.
I still have to say – given the enormity of what is at stake – that Sweden does show we could manage this without committing to dystopia – isn’t there some moral authority to be gained from that?
“Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.” Alexander Pope, An Essay on Criticism (1711). (So NOT in the Bible.)
That line is in the midst of Pope’s lines on bad criticism. He continues: “Distrustful Sense with modest Caution speaks; It still looks home, and short Excursions makes;” ” Poperies that many who express opinions on the subject of this article would do well to heed.
mike otter
3 years ago
I’ve probably said this before commenting on other articles but the UKs Covid 19 panic/scandal/scamdemic whatever is nothing to do with Sweden’s SARS-CoV2 outbreak. In the UK its a re-run of the 1970s attack by leftists on the rest of society. In the abscence of mines, steelworks and docks to use as weapons agains the public they are now using hospitals, schools and the benefits system. Like Wislon, Heath & Callaghan Boris is playing this for his own political survival with no though to the country at large. Whilst he avoids the Blob shaped elephant in the room a head of pressure is building. Once the public see what this playground spat between the vested interests does to the economy i expect we’ll need someone like Thatcher on steroids to sort it out. Where’s Steve McQueen when you need him!
For avoidance of doubt, I’ve rather taken to your dry SOH. More please, though watch the mods 🙂
robert scheetz
3 years ago
This seems like an, and idyl of lost innocence, valentine to ancestors, and totally not germane to the crisis we’re in.
Public health & safety trumps individual rights. Scientific pragmatism must dominate policy. Work the stats, and do the social analysis after it’s over. Ideology should hold its fire.
Is there any limit to the trumping? For example, if it could be shown that some course of action would probably save an additional 100Lives, mean age 80, would that justify locking down almost all of the population for an additional several weeks? I don’t think it would, but that’s why I ask. Thank you 🙂
I know triage is routinely done where resources are scarce. And probably the Court would condone the sacrifice of the 100 octogenarians, given a sufficient extremity. But the ethical ideal in our culture is (Jesus) self-sacrifice. The rest is darwinian, amoral. Authentic Power would give the example, and strictly hue to the standard, “We’re all in this together”, No?
” Njuta, allemansrätt, lagom ” what are our equivalent values in Britain”
When i was growing up in the 70s we had -and were required to have respect – for orher people and other people’s property. It was basic politeness. Stand up for those who need a seat more than you do on the bus. Hold open that door for the next person. Would you dare to reprimand anyone for dropping litter these days?
” One thing one notices if one looks directly at the common people, especially in the big towns, is that they are not puritanical. They are inveterate gamblers, drink as much beer as their wages will permit, are devoted to bawdy jokes, and use probably the foulest language in the world. They have to satisfy these tastes in the face of astonishing, hypocritical laws (licensing laws, lottery acts, etc., etc.) which are designed to interfere with everybody but in practice allow everything to happen.”
Orwell,
The Lion and Unicorn
Let’s not romanticize the 70s (when you were young?).
Do you remember the 70’s?
Orwell wrote that around 1940
The British went back to their “original” character?!
And what does that mean exactly???
I reprimand litterers quite a lot. Sometimes they actually exhibit some shame.
Meanwhile, in Australia, I’m horrified by the political situation here in relation to the handling of this virus. Elected representatives of the people have grossly over-reached in exerting control over those they are meant to serve. And now unelected individuals, i.e. Federal and State medical officers, and various academics, are influencing policy with little or nothing in the way of accountability.
There is something really rotten afoot in Australia, and this has been building for some time. This is so much about ‘the vaccine’, and plans to impose this on the entire population. The groundwork has been set, with the coercive Federal No Jab, No Pay vaccination law implemented in January 2016, and No Jab, No Play laws subsequently implemented by the States. These coercive vaccination laws were campaigned for by the Murdoch newspapers, News Corp, which is also a corporate partner of the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, which is involved in vaccine research and development, a massive undisclosed conflict of interest.
Coercive vaccination lobby groups such as SAVN and Friends of Science in Medicine were at the forefront of the campaign for coercive vaccination, and were privileged by representation at the Senate Hearing on this matter.
And in 2015 the Australian Biosecurity Act was enacted. My reading of this Act indicates Australians could be compelled to have vaccination in an emergency, e.g. coronavirus vaccination, with the penalty for refusal being five years imprisonment and/or a $63,000 fine. I’m seeking clarification on this matter.
It’s shocking that such legislation could be slipped through the Parliament without the general public being consulted.
These are very grim times indeed, and it’s not just about the virus…
Elizabeth – “building for some time”. Yes indeed. My sister who has been a teacher in Aus for about 20 years, says the PC warriors in Aus are even more extreme than in the UK. The health and safety / pc culture in Aus, according to her, is far worse than back in Blighty … if you can imagine that. But developments in Aus over CV seem to be proving her right.
Naturally, along with all other white majority countries, Aus has been ruined as a homogenous, free thinking, confident country and has lost the belief that people generally do the right thing. This opens the way for authoritarians to impose rules – apparently for the greater good.
“lost the belief that people generally do the right thing”
And here you have it. The ideology that has captured the Anglosphere elites does not believe that people act in their own interests. We used to call it left vs right. Now, it’s not a single axis. But it comes down to the Sovereignty of the Individual. John Anderson has done some excellent interviews recently exposing this very challenge. As we have become comfortable, some (many) at the peak of wealth (our new ambassadors) have decided they know best.
It’s a feature of our system, not a bug. And it’s a feature that needs a software patch.
The problem is that people often act in their own interest – at the cost of the interests of everyone else. Refusing vaccination, for instance, increases the danger not just for yourself but for your neighbours. Doing the right thing is a different matter.
Yes, I know many dislike Peterson but I do find his ‘sovereignty of the individual’ approach to the world compelling. Nothing in it recommends selfishness, more responsibility.
If you read Freddie’s article, you’ll see that in Sweden it does not just come down to the sovereignty of the individual, but is a more nuanced issue.
Sovereignty of the individual is a more nuanced issue
A friend of mine lived in Perth for a year or so back in 2010 who reported something very similar. Public discourse centred around everyone getting wound up about the (ridiculously low) crime rate and making everything safer and safer. The guy is from Munich, so hardly from a chaotic and flamboyant place!
The Public Sector will always find work for ‘idle hands’. They are never going to step down because their task is complete.
Here in the UK, the Public Sector is thought to be about 37% of the workforce, an unsupportable position, that will have to to addressed very soon. Their pensions alone account for £50billion per annum
Geoff, observing the situation in the police state of Victoria is appalling, with people masked and under curfew, impeded from travelling from their homes, and subject to intimidation by police and the army. This is the most shocking political experience of my lifetime, and it is occurring under Australian governments, not invading powers. I’m in South Australia and alert to them using the situation to amp up authoritarianism here.
There’s a lack of transparency about the coronavirus situation, the information provided on the Department of Health Coronavirus (COVID-19) webpage is insufficient, and is beating up the number of ‘cases’ and not providing data which informs about the actual risk of this virus to the entire population. We need relevant information, e.g. what comorbidities are involved with Covid-19, across the age groups? What is the status of the people in hospital, the outcomes? We need real information, instead of media-led fear-mongering by beating up the number of ‘cases’ which is largely irrelevant.
There are no deaths reported in individuals under the age of 30, and yet the entire population of 25.5 million is being terrorised about this virus. The majority of deaths are in the age group 70-90+, i.e. the elderly. And these deaths are a tiny fraction of the elderly population in Australia. Federal and State governments have known for months now the demographic groups at risk, why have they not targeted efforts effectively to protect the elderly in aged care facilities and other vulnerable groups? Instead, untold millions are being spent on tests, with over 4.8 million being conducted, with positive tests amounting to 0.4% – what is the point of this? Millions of people with a sniffle are taking up resources in being tested, when it would be more effective for them to stay home and recover from whatever bug ails them.
The entire country is being adversely affected by the disproportionate response of governments and unelected individuals to this virus. What is the approach now, has it moved from supposedly ‘flattening the curve’ to elimination? Now what lies ahead? Are they monitoring developments in other countries such as the UK and Sweden? Are people more likely to be vulnerable being recommended to take vitamin D supplements, particularly those who are most likely to be deficient, e.g. people in aged care facilities? Is the development of natural immunity among the healthy population in Australia deliberately being hindered to facilitate the implementation of fast-tracked, experimental vaccine products, with which Australia is involved via the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI)?
The situation is dire and politicians need to get this sorted before the whole country is wrecked socially and economically.
Just read a ‘typically measured’ BBC piece on its website with the following headline regarding the Victoria ‘outbreak’,
‘Coronavirus Australia records deadliest day, but with fewer infections’
Accompanying this is a picture of an advert exhorting people to,
‘Please go home and stay home’
A health message supplied by the rather appropriately subtitled, ‘Hyped Media’.
Lost somewhere in the depths of that piece is the following sentence,
‘Most deaths have been linked to outbreaks in nearly 100 aged care homes in the state’.
Geoff, as you can, see my response to you has been marked as spam…this is happening often on ‘UnHerd’…
To me too, Elizabeth. It’s seriously off-putting, especially when, having logged a request for correction, nothing happens. In one case a long and carefully thought-out comment of mine was “marked as spam” after it had been upvoted and commented on by several people.
And ” I too am very disturbed indeed by the coercive aspects of government responses to Covid-19. But it sounds as if those close-harnessed horses, fear and coercion, are pulling even more strongly in Australia than they are here in the UK.
This is bad Martin. I re-posted my response to Geoff Cox, and it’s gone again, marked as ‘spam’, despite the problem being reported to UnHerd and me being assured it was going to stay up this time. Also, I think there could be serious problems at UnHerd re conflicts of interest, I’m pursuing this.
Thank you, Elizabeth. My curiosity is up about conflicts of interest. You probably can’t say more here; but might that have something to do with the issues with comments experienced by you, me and several others I know of? I hope I’m not being dim.
You’re not being dim Martin. What do we know about UnHerd? It claims to “provide a platform for otherwise unheard ideas, people and places”. Apart from those comments and ideas that mysteriously disappear… How is UnHerd funded? Who is behind it? At the moment it’s a ‘free’ website…but is there an agenda here? Not much transparency on this website if you go looking. Not even an admin contact email that I can find. I’ve been investigating who is behind UnHerd, and have forwarded a detailed email to Freddie Sayers on this matter. I’m awaiting a response… (Found his email via another contact.)
Thank you Elizabeth; and well done, especially for finding that email address. One of the strangest aspects of what is, in almost all the most obvious respects (quality of writing, range of subjects etc.) one of the best things of this kind on the internet, is what you say ” “Not even an admin contact email that I can find.” Nor can I. I’m sure many of us would be interested to know if you unearth anything. Thank you!
my thoughts exactly
Far from liberal Sweden, check out increasingly authoritarian Australia – see this opinion piece ‘Government must consider mandatory COVID-19 vaccination’ in The Sydney Morning Herald today, complete with a chorus of promoters in the comments section.
What on Earth has happened? Diggers replaced by Shriekers!
God help us.
Geoff, observing the situation in the police state of Victoria is appalling, with people masked and under curfew, impeded from travelling from their homes, and subject to intimidation by police and the army. This is the most shocking political experience of my lifetime, and it is occurring under Australian governments, not invading powers. I’m in South Australia and alert to them using the situation to amp up authoritarianism here.
There’s a lack of transparency about the coronavirus situation, the information provided on the Department of Health Coronavirus (COVID-19) webpage is insufficient, and is beating up the number of ‘cases’ and not providing data which informs about the actual risk of this virus to the entire population. We need relevant information, e.g. what comorbidities are involved with Covid-19, across the age groups? What is the status of the people in hospital, the outcomes? We need real information, instead of media-led fear-mongering by beating up the number of ‘cases’ which is largely irrelevant.
There are no deaths reported in individuals under the age of 30, and yet the entire population of 25.5 million is being terrorised about this virus. The majority of deaths are in the age group 70-90+, i.e. the elderly. And these deaths are a tiny fraction of the elderly population in Australia. Federal and State governments have known for months now the demographic groups at risk, why have they not targeted efforts effectively to protect the elderly in aged care facilities and other vulnerable groups? Instead, untold millions are being spent on tests, with over 4.8 million being conducted, with positive tests amounting to 0.4% – what is the point of this? Millions of people with a sniffle are taking up resources in being tested, when it would be more effective for them to stay home and recover from whatever bug ails them.
The entire country is being adversely affected by the disproportionate response of governments and unelected individuals to this virus. What is the approach now, has it moved from supposedly ‘flattening the curve’ to elimination? Now what lies ahead? Are they monitoring developments in other countries such as the UK and Sweden? Are people more likely to be vulnerable being recommended to take vitamin D supplements, particularly those who are most likely to be deficient, e.g. people in aged care facilities? Is the development of natural immunity among the healthy population in Australia deliberately being hindered to facilitate the implementation of fast-tracked, experimental vaccine products, with which Australia is involved via the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI)?
The situation is dire and politicians need to get this sorted before the whole country is wrecked socially and economically.
You write; “Naturally, along with all other white majority countries, Aus has been ruined as a homogenous, free thinking, confident country”. There is, of course, a perspective that says that Aus. was ruined as a homogenous place in the late 1700’s when a bunch of unwanted alien immigrants arrived and essentially took the place over by force.
The 18th century did not have any idea of preserving a Neolithic type of society.
There was no national identity, commonality or homogeneity in pre-European Australia there was Tribalism; the outfit over the hill or down the coast didn’t even speak your language.
I had an interesting chat with a Kiwi professor a while ago and she said it was a good thing the Maoris didn’t manage to cross the Tasman Sea because if they had there would be NO ABORIGINALS LEFT. they would have been slaughtered. Because that’s what conquering tribes did. The European ‘invasion’ was a lucky break in comparison.
Reposting this for the third time I think, it keeps getting removed as ‘spam’…
Geoff, observing the situation in the police state of Victoria is appalling, with people masked and under curfew, impeded from travelling from their homes, and subject to intimidation by police and the army. This is the most shocking political experience of my lifetime, and it is occurring under Australian governments, not invading powers. I’m in South Australia and alert to them using the situation to amp up authoritarianism here.
There’s a lack of transparency about the coronavirus situation, the information provided on the Department of Health Coronavirus (COVID-19) webpage is insufficient, and is beating up the number of ‘cases’ and not providing data which informs about the actual risk of this virus to the entire population. We need relevant information, e.g. what comorbidities are involved with Covid-19, across the age groups? What is the status of the people in hospital, the outcomes? We need real information, instead of media-led fear-mongering by beating up the number of ‘cases’ which is largely irrelevant.
There are no deaths reported in individuals under the age of 30, and yet the entire population of 25.5 million is being terrorised about this virus. The majority of deaths are in the age group 70-90+, i.e. the elderly. And these deaths are a tiny fraction of the elderly population in Australia. Federal and State governments have known for months now the demographic groups at risk, why have they not targeted efforts effectively to protect the elderly in aged care facilities and other vulnerable groups? Instead, untold millions are being spent on tests, with over 4.8 million being conducted, with positive tests amounting to 0.4% – what is the point of this? Millions of people with a sniffle are taking up resources in being tested, when it would be more effective for them to stay home and recover from whatever bug ails them.
The entire country is being adversely affected by the disproportionate response of governments and unelected individuals to this virus. What is the approach now, has it moved from supposedly ‘flattening the curve’ to elimination? Now what lies ahead? Are they monitoring developments in other countries such as the UK and Sweden? Are people more likely to be vulnerable being recommended to take vitamin D supplements, particularly those who are most likely to be deficient, e.g. people in aged care facilities? Is the development of natural immunity among the healthy population in Australia deliberately being hindered to facilitate the implementation of fast-tracked, experimental vaccine products, with which Australia is involved via the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI)?
The situation is dire and politicians need to get this sorted before the whole country is wrecked socially and economically.
At this stage I’m happy to watch it burn, only then will we come to our senses
Might there be a connection between what is happening in Australia politically, and the panic buying of toilet rolls there which seemed to kick the whole thing off?
At the risk of a gigantic generalisation – but generalisations can occasionally be helpful – Australians and Americans, who regard themselves as the ultimate “go-get” people on the planet (unlike the “whingeing poms”) are also those most likely to fly into panic when something unexpected happens. We witnessed something very similar at the time of the attacks on the twin towers. And that did not exactly end well.
If I remember correctly Elizabeth, your post that has been marked as spam touched on the lack of research into Vitamin D & Covid-19 relative to the effort being put into finding a vaccine.
As you know, there has been much research into Vitamin D and respiratory diseases generally and Sabastian Rushworth MD (Do vitamin D supplements protect against respiratory infections? 03 Aug 2020) has now produced a good summary of an article in the BMJ, published 15 February 2017, entitled:- Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory tract infections: systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data.
His conclusion of all the research is: Vitamin D isn’t going to magically make you immune to respiratory infections, but it will likely decrease the frequency with which you get them by a bit if you are not deficient, and by a lot if you are deficient.
What we now need to know is whether Vitamin D deficiency is linked to poor outcomes for those that contract Covid-19 and, somewhat separately, whether the flu vaccination impacts adversely for Covid-19 bearing in mind that there are already studies to suggest it makes people more susceptible to other respiratory diseases.
Robin, my comment that has been marked as spam contains more info about the dire authoritarian state of Australia and its response to coronavirus, as well as a reference to vitamin D. It seems to me common sense to make sure people in aged care facilities are having the option to have at least the recommended dose of vitamin D supplements. Despite living in sunny Australia it’s possible to have low vitamin D. Due to Irish heritage, I have pale skin and am always covered up outside, and have often been victim to respiratory ailments, and I’m tucking into vitamin D now. Likewise people in aged care facilities might not get much sun exposure, and are likely to be vitamin D deficient.
Re flu vaccination, I’m also very interested to know if flu vaccination might be making people more vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19. I’ve written to Anders Tegnell and others about this. The elderly are pressed to have regular flu vaccination, even though it’s known it’s not likely to be effective in this age group…and that’s why now apparently children are vaccinated against flu, to protect the elderly. And they’re planning to do likewise re coronavirus. In my opinion this is unethical – see my rapid response published on The BMJ – ‘Is it ethical to vaccinate children to protect the elderly’, 5 August 2020.
I agree with you, Elizabeth. I’m troubled by the well meaning efforts to greatly extend vaccination to flu without much thought to the risks if done while cov2 is endemic.
Not so sure it is actually “well-meaning.”
Since when have our “governors” prioritized the health of the citizens? I write from the USA. The answer is: Never.
Why should we think they are starting now?
Re Bill Gates: He is totally unqualified to play any role whatsoever in setting health policy. The fact that this “foundation” head does so merely serves to highlight the intertwining of “nonprofit” with very profitable ventures. Profitable for his foundation trust’s investments in Big Pharma, and profitable for his tech company, Microsoft (development of nanotech related to vaccines). When the obvious is roundly shouted down as “conspiracy theory” in a coordinate fashion, you know you are on to something. Like, asI say, the obvious.
Great, articulate comments, Elizabeth Hart! Very worried to read of the dreadful poliitical climate in Australia, at least, Victoria. Worse even than in the USA. And that is saying something.
Maybe the spam deletions, whilst very interesting, are being deleted because they are being posted under an article about Sweden? I am sorry if someone has already said this, but, well, half the comments are about Australia…
Steve Dean, the article is about Sweden’s response to Covid-19, which has been substantially less dire than that in countries such as the US, the UK and Australia.
I wonder if Sweden has a fear-mongering media and government determined to frighten everyone about the virus, despite the fact most people aren’t at risk?
In Australia we have endured relentless scare tactics across all media for months – who is driving this and why?
Where I live, in South Australia, restrictions have been lessened. But the state of Victoria is back in draconian lockdown, with people masked, under curfew, impeded from travelling from their homes, and at risk of intimidation from the police and the army if they don’t toe the line. Epidemiologist Tony Blakely has suggested Victoria could be isolated from the rest of Australia for up two years if COVID-19 numbers “are not brought under control”. Blakely says, assuming “Victoria doesn’t get rid of this virus…Victoria will have to function in isolation from the rest of Australia until such time as we get a vaccine”.
It seems it’s all about ‘waiting for the vaccine’. Cobble together a few ‘cases’ in other states, and it’s possible these could be used to impose further lockdowns too, as is also happening in New Zealand now.
We’re being set up for fast-tracked vaccines, with CEPI chair Jane Halton, a direct advisor to Prime Minister Scott Morrison, calling for coronavirus vaccination to be compulsory.
There is already scope for this to be imposed via the Biosecurity Act 2015, with vaccine refusers possibly subject to five years imprisonment and/or a $63,000 fine. I suspect not a lot of Australians are aware of this, and how did this coercive legislation get through the parliament?
So things are rather different here than in Sweden… We can’t talk about this publicly in Australia because such discussion is hindered and often outright censored. Hence my raising it on UnHerd – it’s a call for help!
Doesn’t sound good. Like I said, I think it was why you were getting taken down. Has this appeared in the press at all?
Yes, on your last point, I’m concerned that extending the flu jab could end up being a mistake. It maybe that vaccinating against the most lethal virus is the best option when there is more than one in circulation.
I tried to reply with a reference to another detailed review paper on vitamin D which discussed the biological mechanism in detail, and some further facts supporting the case for vitamin D but the comment was rejected. Why is this considered spam? Who is doing the moderation?
Many many reports around the world , originating from the epi centre of the pandemic in New York hospitals clearly show, the lower the vitamin D levels in the blood , the worse the outcomes. A level of 30 song/ml seems to be the magic point. The higher above 30 the better the outcomes. Below 27 and outcomes were gradually worse.
Check this out on the internet but beware , many search engines , particularly google, are censoring this potentially life saving info.They are all in the pockets of Big Parma, Bill Gates, et al.
For top quality scientific links check out Mercola.com.
30ng/ml. Sorry predictive text changed my original post.
How very encouraging this must be for ‘Fu Manchu & Co in Peking to read this.
One must ask is Australia worth saving?ie, worth a full scale nuclear war? Based on what you say, definitely not!
In fact all Australian schools should immediately start teaching their children how to Kowtow, it may prove invaluable for the eons of slavery that are to come.
Granted, Australia’s performance has been truly pathetic!
What on Earth has gone wrong?
They will have to ” man up” unless they wish to be hoovered up by the ‘Chinks’.
The role of the media in the U.K. would be an interesting comparison with Sweden? Here the bbc and the Guardian my “go to” for news has wallowed in the hype and fearmongering. I have been banned from commenting on the Guardian as I kept imploring them to stop printing new articles which stoked irrational fear and to always put new data in context, ie deaths.
Same with me with my default Italian media.
If I am learning something from this madness, it is experiencing the life of an outcast.
Being labelled, isolated, derided as a gullible negationist, conspirator, intellectually idiot, even if I don’t believe in anything but science, just because I had enough time, intelligence and critical spirit to do my research and don’t buy in all this narrative
Same here in Canada (with the mainstream media). I reserve the right to question the government’s reaction to the COVID-19 situation without having to be called a conspiracy theorist, right-wing zealot, or crank – and indeed, I dare say I am not any one of those things! It definitely has been four months of living like an outcast in many ways (and it’s getting worse, as masks are becoming mandatory in a growing number of venues).
A couple weeks ago, Forbes published an article entitled “You Must Not ‘Do Your Own Research’ When It Comes To Science.” The media is now actively discouraging the populace from engaging in critical thinking. It’s absolutely disgraceful and more than a little frightening.
That was impressive. Subtle and sensitive view of Swedish culture, Freddie. Didn’t realise you were half Swede. I am also a Swede living in Australia and also lived in the UK. It has always confounded me with Anglo people’s fascination with politicians at the same time as they hold them in utter contempt. In sweden, politicians are pretty boring just there to serve the people. In schools the emphasis in anglo is debating(I am right you are wrong), in sweden it is group work(let’s find a compromise). A combination of these dynamics are playing out real time in covid. As you say, covid is revealing a lot about societies.
Revealing not just societal attitudes. I suspect the fundamental difference in outcome between the UK and other European countries will have a lot to do with our very unhealthy population.
Your point is spot on. A good Swedish friend of mine worked in London for over 10 years and for the last 4 years lives and works in Frankfurt. He points out how boring the political debates are in Germany/Sweden (technocratic points) compared to English debating performances.
I believe that may be an artificial projection of the media.
The official opposition party in Germany has become the AfD, which is definitely not a result of politics being about boring technocratic points. In Sweden their equivalent party got roughly 18% of the vote.
However you wouldn’t know this from reading German media. I can’t say for Swedish but I’ve heard it’s no different. British media is significantly more politically balanced than most European countries, where journalists have decided pretty much uniformly to act as if certain political issues just do not exist at all.
I am an American. I am relating your description of how the Pandemic was handled in Scandinavian countries to what is going on in my country, the USA. One phrase that sums it up for me is “designed to be proportionate to the threat, but unhysterical”. This suggests the response to the threat is based on rational logic and science. In the USA, the Pandemic was seized upon in January as an “opportunity”. Ever since, the virus has been used as a political weapon. There is no rational logic or science at all being considered when authoritarian commands are dictated from State Governors, City Mayors, and government bureaucrats. There is no concern at all given for the well being of the people, the economy, and the actions dictated on us are purposely designed to prolong the situation.
Exactly Chuck, same thing in Australia. Have you watched the Event 201 videos – A Global Pandemic Exercise run by the John Hopkins Center for Health Security, World Economic Forum, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation? These are a must watch. If you have time constraints, watch the Highlights Reel and Segment 4 – Communications Discussion, and Segment 5 – Hotwash and Conclusion. These are the blueprint for what’s gone on re the current coronavirus debacle. This virus was just the mechanism they wanted to push a huge business and control agenda. Check out the videos and see how they planned to manipulate the media etc, it’s all there.
In his blog, How bad is covid really? (A Swedish doctor’s perspective), Sabastian Rushworth MD states that his experience of working in a large hospital in Stockholm has been one where virtually every patient seemed to have Covid but now he hasn’t seen a case for over a month. He makes a convincing argument to suggest that more than 50% of Swedes probably now have immunity. He explains that the 50% could have been achieved as follows:-
This number is perfectly reasonable if we assume a reproductive number for the virus of two: If each person infects two new, with a five day period between being infected and infecting others, and you start out with just one infected person in the country, then you will reach a point where several million are infected in just four months. If only 6000 are dead out of five million infected, that works out to a case fatality rate of 0.12 percent, roughly the same as regular old influenza, which no-one is the least bit frightened of, and which we don’t shut down our societies for.
[I have avoided quotes & direct reference to the blog because posts often end up in spam or get delayed. Google to get the link.]
No offence, but the mortality rate of COVID-19 is heavily studied in mainstream science. And the consensus I hear keeps hovering around 0.6%-0.8%. As for immunity, I was not aware of any reliable figures – people did not even know for sure if there was any lasting immunity, last I saw. It is not settled yet, to be sure, but if you actually want to argue your case, how about engaging with mainstream debate, finding some peer-reviewed article that tilts your way, and maybe explains why the others get it wrong? Skipping the science publications in favour of one blogger with an MD and a back-of-the-envelope calculation is not serious. It is the kind of thing that will not convince anybody, but ony confirm those who have made their mind up in advance.
‘And the consensus I hear keeps hovering around 0.6%-0.8%’
Never quite sure, but is that an example of irony?
No, from what I have seen, 0.6-0.8% is still the best estimate of the COVID fatality rate, even if the debate is far from over yet. I would love to see any solid evidence to the contrary, if you can point to it.
Stockholm county, which is a severely hit region, has had almost exactly 0.1% fatalities, counted as dead WITH Covid compared to population, (which is not necessarily the same as dead FROM Covid). Lombardia reports about 0.16% fatalities of its population. If you look at country wide statistics fatalities drop even more than that. 0.6%-0.8% would mean that even in these regions, still quite few have been subjected to the virus, which does not seem to make mathematical sense, given how drastically the rate of infection has decreased. My guess on how to make the figures add up – more people have been subjected to the virus than shown by anti-bodies tests and more people being immune or not showing any symptoms than previously thought. This is an optimistic view – I do not believe in any substantial second waves in the regions that have been severely hit.
On antibody tests underestimating those previously infected you’re right.
1. Early assays were set up to avoid false positives so they are low sensitivity and very high specificity. Anyone with lower levels of antibodies will be negative. A high sensitivity test was used in a town in Austria which is a famous ski resort & 70-75% were positive.
2. Some unknown fraction of people shrug the virus easily & quickly, using innate mechanisms such as release of IFN. This is part of immune surveillance & kills cells infected with virus or transformed by cancer. These people develop no or little antibodies because there was neither time nor need, but they probably have T-memory through antigen presentation.
For clinical evidence of how powerful IFN is, see Synairgen press release
https://www.synairgen.com/w…
0.6-0.8% of what? This stat is meaningless. Of those tested positive? Those who are symptomatic? The entire population?
I can’t recall any paper with an IFR as great since the Diamond Princess study. This of course is heavily biased to the elderly cruiser demographic and is much an overestimate when including the 80% younger & less vulnerable demographic.
If you read his article he has a link to a study by Karolinska Institet entitled: Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19. This scientific study suggests that in May 2020 some 29% of people in Sweden may have had immunity.
I try not to “skip the science publications” which is why it is helpful to get information from people who are also looking for the data. You say that “the mortality rate of COVID-19 is heavily studied in mainstream science” but you can only get the mortality rate if you know the incidence, for which there is very little hard data.
@Kelly Mitchell. I am talking about the infection fatality rate,effectively “If you get it, how likely are you to die”? Hard to estimate, but the number you want.
That said, I did a quick Google. The Karolinska iInstiture paper was about looking for T cell immunity. They may have made conclusions about overall mortality (I did not read through), but it is not their main point, or expertise.
More to the point a paper by John Ioannides, 14 July 2020, MedArxiv, not peer reviewed. This is a meta-analysis of COVID infection fatality rates (IFR, what we want to know). Not perfect, but less uncertain than a single study, and a little harder to bias. IFR ranged from 0.0 to 1.3% across studies, and was found to be quite a bit higher in places where there had been a lot of deaths. So, a lot of variability between different locations, not well understood, could depend on a lot of factors, but OK, from that study the ‘idiots resume’ would now be around 0.3-0.4% rather than the 0.6-0.8% that was estimated earlier. I stand corrected (by a factor of two).
This is as far as I have time to go. Considering how important this is, and how hard to get right, I would leave it at this, complete with uncertainty, and refrain from making my own rough calculations that compete with the professionals. I certainly hope that decision makers stick to the kind of probabiliy distribution this kind of numbers give, rather than trying to guesstimate their own certainties.
If anybody can give a reasoned literature analysis and come with more precise numbers, by all means let us hear it.
I applaud your logic & I don’t disagree with where you’ve landed. It’s actually very difficult to work out the ‘correct’ number, if such a concept holds water anyway. I edge to lower, but can live with your pick, too.
Well Rasmus, if you want to refrain from making your own calculations you could also start by not quoting diverse statistics. You’re just muddying the waters and creating both confusion and irrelevance.
The IFR for the working population below 50 years of age is as close to 0% as you can get. That is a FACT as very few people below 50 has died.
The very old and sick in age care homes, just like with flu, dies at a greater rate. Most of the deaths are very old and very sick people in these homes. The same happens with the flu season every year. The seasonal deaths in age care homes are not that different from what we see in covid. Flu also doesn’t kill(or contribute to kill) people below 50.
Robin, I wholeheartedly agree with your post. I use an infection fatality rate of 0.25% as CDC displayed that for weeks before increasing it. It’s a median from dozens of estimates so it may be wrong. U.K. had 47,000 deaths so around 19million infections, so about 28% of population. If 30% were resistant to start with & 5% youngest not susceptible & an unknown % able to clear virus speedily leaving no trace, we’re at a much lower remaining % susceptible than the published herd immunity threshold papers suggest fit the data well (Gupta & Gomez research groups included). Imperials model infamously assumed 100% initial susceptibility which is silly. No virus ever infects close to that. They also assumed complete homogeneity of transmission, also dubious. The more thoughtful groups developed models of differential rates of transmission & allowed for some prior immunological resistance. HIT ranged consistently from 15-25% infected. I think that’s what we’ve had and the pandemic is ebbing away.
Also note the incredibly similar daily deaths timecourses across U.K., Sweden, France, Belgium & others. We’ve to believe these v similar profiles arose by chance despite differences in lockdowns, adherence to guidance & population demographics or we could accept the in my view more likely explanation that all flowed from developing equilibrium between a novel virus & it’s human host.
Also see Drosten et al, in Germany, who showed at least 30% had virus-reactive T-cells, same as the Karolinska study. https://www.medrxiv.org/con…
is the swedish media more measured ??- it seemed to me that UK almost went the swedish way then the politicians got spooked by media stampede inevitably based on thin evidence but max emotion
Its similarly alamistic. Always finding some failed professor in xxxx-ology to shout “lockdown!” or “facemask!”, in order to increase anxiety and get the precious clicks they crave.
So refreshing and instructive to read this.
Unheard is really one of the few oasis of human rationality in this driven by fear madness we are living
A timely article, Freddie, although in truth we could have done with it about three months ago. I hope the personal liberties lobby read it.
With the exception of schools and hospitality, not trivial exceptions I grant you, the UK and Swedish lockdowns have been quite similar. The essential difference is the degree to which the UK Government felt it had to use compulsion, rather than encouragement.
Boris, of course, started down the encouragement route but was savagely criticised for it by a media with an agenda and was forced to alter his approach. Perhaps correctly, as the hysterical response to l’affaire Cummings demonstrated unequivocally our nation’s inability to operate a version of lockdown in which people were trusted to make difficult decisions that balanced their family’s welfare with the public good.
Is Freddie going mainstream and hoping for a job at the BBC? Hope not. Using the term laissez-faire? Why not pragmatic or egalitarian? In truth this is all getting very tedious – basically we are dealing with a respiratory virus that for the vast majority is mild and not life threatening. We can argue/discuss endlessly about this bug, but one clear reality is that the cost of lockdowns will be enormous in cost, jobs, futures, and lives (cancer not being treated etc.). I have a privileged insight into this because of the work I do; and it is truly terrifying. I have not been at least concerned about contracting covid – why? Simply I look at the chances of my catching it and then dying. Re-markedly low, even using the most pessimistic of forecasts (Imperial College take a bow). As one person I know who was tested positive said, ‘I would not have realised I had it but for my partner being routinely tested because of his job’. Perspective, perspective please.
Britain used to have universally shared values, but they’ve been eroded by decades of enforced multiculturalism. How long does the author believe things will go on the way he describes when ethnic Swedes look set to be a minority in their own country by 2050?
c.87% of British people are white. Check out Clapham Common during a sunny weekend; litter everywhere. And the people are all white British and middle class. Plenty of Aussies too – so may be they are to blame?
87% ? Not apparent if you were born and bred in the East End of London. See your Clapham Common and raise you Notting Hill Carnival or any temporary traveller site post departure.
Victoria Park, East London, very clean BTW. Check it out.
Not without a stab vest !
I run from Angel to Victoria park every day. For the last 10 years.
Still alive and unstabbed.
So you’re afraid of getting stabbed on the underground between Angel and Bethnal Green ?
How did you come up with that reasoning?
In 2011 census white British was 45% of London. On a downward trend
Sieg Heil!
Hell Steve, where did that come from?
I had been reading about the census and thought that fact was interesting and relevant over impression.
I state a fact and you call me a Nazi…wow, just wow.
Another fact: Nazi was short for national socialists and they didn’t like facts much either.
My take on the erosion of shared values (in the last 40 years) would be that it’s more down to decades of the deliberate destruction of the political, cultural and social institutions and organisations that supported those shared values. At the same time ‘the other’ – in terms of ethnic minorities, migrant workers and immigrants have been blamed for failures of the economic system. Saying ‘I blame multiculturalism’ is the polite way of saying ‘I blame the foreigners’. The erosion of shared values has been deliberately undertaken to enable a political structure that promotes individualism over group responsibility and allows the powerful to consolidate and increase their wealth and power.
All that is solid melts into air.
Hmm…”universally shared values”….democracy and pluralism, yes…..but my feeling growing up in the ’50s and ’60s was that those in favour of militarism, monarchy, and christianity also though that we should all buy in to that too. Those who sounded a different note did not quite get the media coverage that their numbers deserved, I think.
I’m not convinced that it’s immigration that is the issue. A heck of a lot of immigrants have something closer to what were previously considered the shared values of the communities they join. It’s part of the reason that the newcomer’s communities are often so close knit.
It’s the people who have been around for generations who have lost a lot of their ancestors previously held cultural values.
” Njuta, allemansrätt, lagom ” what are our equivalent values in Britain”…
An interesting article, but I am not convinced that – even though we do not have those terms in English – there is truly such a stark cultural difference between Sweden and Britain in these respects. How about the concepts of fairness (widely regarded as being a British characteristic) and being reasonable (closely related to fairness and consideration for others). Similarly, you can walk through private farmland as long as you don’t damage crops or disturb livestock, and the concept of established right of way over private land is centuries old. And we are world-class at queuing: that everyday example of fairness, consideration, equality …
“And we are world-class at queuing…”
As a Swedish friend of mine once said ” we queue too, we just don’t talk about it. It is the English that endlessly talk about their queuing”
In general I consider scandinavian countries to be the richest and most developed civilizations on earth at this moment but unfortunately it doesn’t seem like the world is heading towards the so called Swedish model (which isn’t so different from the neighbouring countries). If global mass hysteria could have been avoided anywhere then Sweden , Norway, Finland, Denmark, etc., were the most likely candidates to avoid it. I wouldn’t call the Swedish policy laissez-faire in any respect. It’s just common sense based on the available science, plain and simple. Act on what you do know from scientific experience and do not act on the basis of irrational emotions.
Remember what Johan Giesecke said. Some countries do this, some countries do that and in the end it’s the same ball game everywhere (virologically speaking that is). The virus will eventually spread like wildfire (or already has), it is endemic.
I would agree that the Scandinavian countries were the most civilized nations the world has seen, but for obvious reasons that will change in the years to come. Sweden, for example, is probably too far gone to be saved.
Can you explain your last sentence? In which way is Sweden too far gone to be saved from what?
Stupidity – their looking lonely in that respect. The lowest denominator obviously. How dare they pursue common sense and pragmatism? Being provocative. Apologise – the covid factor.
I agree, ‘laissez-faire’ suggests lack of care or committment. In reality the Swedes have demonstrated far more real rigour to their deliberations. It would be more accurate to label the shut downs as laissez faire because little real thought or care has gone into those decisions and they have just lazily gone along with the dominant media-backed voices.
I am a Brit who worked for a Swedish tech company for five years and have also headed up EMEA for US companies, where I had to explain variations across the many EU cultures in the “single” market (where one EU wide approach is not viable). “Lagom” was my go to word, and to Anglo-Saxon culture it seems designed to suffocate individuality and competition. However, it obviously has compensations that Covid has highlighted. As the UK lurches towards 4 or 5 million unemployed and continues to argue from polar opposites about lockdowns, in much the same febrile atmosphere we suffered over Brexit, we look on in envy.
I don’t think Anglo-Saxon really understand individuality.
Very interesting article by Mr. Sayers.
I will pick a couple nits with one comment that he makes about the U.S.: “Try putting decking on the seaside edge of your garden, or buying alcohol from anywhere other than the state monopoly ” you will be met with restrictions that would be unthinkable in either Britain or the United States.”
In the case of the U.S., he might be surprised by the number of places with similar restrictions on putting decking on the seaside edge of one’s garden. It certainly wouldn’t be close to everywhere, but plenty of places in the U.S. have such restrictions imposed either by local government or a home owners’ association. HOA’s are admittedly private, non-governmental entities. In form, however, an HOA for a large subdivision ends up looking a bit like a small-town government, and (usually retired) busybody HOA board members are a common stereotype. I hadn’t made the connection previously, but the personality type is quite similar to a lockdown-crazed governor or mayor.
Also, seven U.S. states have state-run liquor stores with monopolies on the package – i.e., retail for off-premises consumption – sale of spirits.
Exactly, I grew up in NY suburb, all middle/upper class. My neighbor got in trouble with HOA because his US flag was too big. And you had to cut the grass too – my parents got in trouble because it was “overgrown”.
In USA you can not but alcohol unless you are 21, so we all had fake IDs.
You can get married at 18, die for your country, breed, pay taxes, borrow money BUT you can not buy a six pack.
Yes, stories like that are common, as well as complaints about dealing with architectural review committees. (To be clear, I’m not saying all HOA’s are that way. I’ve lived in a condo with an HOA for 10+ years. The board and other residents have pretty much always been reasonable.)
The bad situations on occasion get really bad, though. Here’s a WSJ article from last year about one where a homeowner and the HOA ran up combined legal bills of almost $800,000 in a 7+ year dispute that clearly turned into a contest of wills – https://www.wsj.com/article… .
A few quotes:
“Soon after Jim Hildenbrand arrived in Avignon Villa Homes, a community for older adults in a Kansas City suburb, the homeowner association disputed the placement of his satellite dish. It cited him for parking cars in his driveway overnight and placing a St. Francis statue in a flower bed. He was later written up for a dead cat in a window well”which Mr. Hildenbrand suspects was planted by a neighborhood enemy.”
“After he installed a decorative, shin-high wall around a plant bed on the side of his house, saying it would enhance the curb appeal, the HOA ordered him to remove it because it hadn’t been approved by an architectural review committee. Mr. Hildenbrand said he actually had the needed approval. Seven years after he moved in, the HOA and Mr. Hildenbrand are still fighting over the decorative wall in court, with no end in sight.”
“Board members and some residents said they are the victim of a rogue neighbor… Another contingent of residents supports Mr. Hildenbrand, asserting they have been mistreated by the HOA board. “They have bullied for so long so many of the residents,” said Connie Morris, 66, whose complaints include the association not allowing a decorative bench in her front yard.”
“When he installed a satellite dish next to his home in the backyard, the HOA advised him it had to be in the middle of the yard, he said. Mr. Hildenbrand refused to move it, arguing the placement of the dishes falls under federal control … The board dropped the demand after it was advised by the Federal Communications Commission that the HOA had no jurisdiction over satellite dishes.”
Wonderful article, of much value. Thank you!
On an exceedingly trivial matter: Shouldn’t “summers” be possessive in the phrase “It’s a lovely summers day”?
Thank you so much!
Eagle eyes.
I am so happy to have found unherd, since most media coverage during this crisis has been true garbage when the World needs to be informed, not misled. Being Swedish, it has been so strange to have Sweden of all places to be blamed for Libertarianism (I have seen this in respected Newspapers like CNN, NY times etc.), when to me it truly is a country that protects human rights, and especially those of children who haven’t had their right to play, interact and go to school being taken away from them. Not choosing lockdown was never only about the economy, but about sparing society from collapse (psychological, social, educational etc. and yes of course economic). Also, importantly, our Constitution does not give the Government the right to decide over our freedom of movement. I live in Italy, and ran off to Sweden before the quarantine, sparing my children of a trauma that they would have carried with them forever I believe.
Yes I can agree that it is a lot about the children being able to go to school. And it breaks my heart to see the school closures around the world.
‘Njuta, allemansrätt, lagom ” what are our equivalent values in Britain or the United States?’
The equivalent value in Britain is to go to the park or countryside and leave a lot of litter. The equivalent value in the US is to attack little old ladies with paint.
What is up with the litter?
I’m not quite sure what you mean but, broadly speaking, the UK’s educational, welfare, judicial, social and media structures have created tens of millions of people whose only loyalty is to themselves and their appetites. Thus they happily gather to eat and drink in public places, assuming that others will clear up after them. It is sickening, especially as most of them would claim to care about ‘the environment’.
Plenty of people (northern europe – as per the article) eat and drink in public parks; the question is why the British litter?
The Germans recycle 2x of their waste as the British.
You write; “the UK’s educational, welfare, judicial, social and media structure” No mention of political there. Are you old enough to remember “There is no such thing as society”? Loadsamoney! I won’t go on about the detail, but Thatcher….who of course would never have had a majority in a Proportional Representation electoral system. And of course the Labour Party has continued to support the electoral system which gives us periodic Tory govnerments on a minority vote.
I do get tired of the “no such thing as society” not being put into context.
So here it is in context:
“I think we have been through a period when too many people have been given to understand that when they have a problem it is government’s job to cope with it. ‘I have a problem, I’ll get a grant. I’m homeless, the government must house me.’ They are casting their problems on society. And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families. And no governments can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then, also, to look after our neighbours. People have got their entitlements too much in mind, without the obligations. There is no such thing as an entitlement, unless someone has first met an obligation.”
I personally cannot see what is wrong with what Thatcher was saying. Perhaps Paul Boizot could tell me?
It’s the bit that says “And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families.” Do I really need to explain this? That there are also communities both geographically at various levels, and of interest and belief; and also, though I am not a nationalist, nations – a questionable one, I agree, but very fashionable in the last couple of centuries. If it is only individuals and families, why should anyone join the British army?
I don’t think she was expressing, perhaps clumsily, that it’s individuals & groups of them who bring things about. She perhaps didn’t know what, specifically, was meant by ‘society’, and it’s not a dumb question. She went onto to exemplify that rights & obligations must exist in some manner of equilibrium & ultimately there are individuals & groups of them exercising & discharging these rights & obligations in harmony.
In the overall context of the interview she was giving she was being asked about children and families and education and such like. She wasn’t addressing the bigger picture of the nation. It’s asking too much for her entire political philosophy to have been summed up by a few sentences.
Here’s another bit from the interview I found (it was with Women’s Own btw) where she again uses the phrase that bothers you:
“There is no such thing as society. There is living tapestry of men and women and people and the beauty of that tapestry and the quality of our lives will depend upon how much each of us is prepared to take responsibility for ourselves and each of us prepared to turn round and help by our own efforts those who are unfortunate.
And the worst things we have in life, in my view, are where children who are a great privilege and a trust”they are the fundamental great trust, but they do not ask to come into the world, we bring them into the world, they are a miracle, there is nothing like the miracle of life”we have these little innocents and the worst crime in life is when those children, who would naturally have the right to look to their parents for help, for comfort, not only just for the food and shelter but for the time, for the understanding, turn round and not only is that help not forthcoming, but they get either neglect or worse than that, cruelty”.
A wonderful eulogy.
Who would have thought otherwise? A country that spends half the year in darkness, invents the Sabb, Volvo, and Aga, avoided WWII, and has a proud independent History, was bound to the find the correct answer to C19.
HMG should be, but predictably isn’t, ashamed of our simply pathetic performance in the C-19 fiasco.
Love ‘the Scandinavians’ .
Though by no means perfect, they seem to have most things sussed better than anyone.
Undeniably smart, but had the UK been as ‘smart’ as them in the late 30s, the world would likely be a very different place.
Not if Adolph had repeated his bovine interference with Operation Barbarossa.
Still an ‘if’.
A war on two fronts was Hitler’s ultimate undoing.
No Britain, then likely no USA.
‘Cosmic’ sequencing played a large part.
We were lucky that we weren’t on his Menu.
Yep, it would only have been a matter of time for us though, I’m sure.
Thankfully impatience and hubris got the better of him.
Thank you, Freddie.
As a Dane/New Zealander living in NZ, reading this felt like someone actually understanding me – or, more widely, the Scandinavian DNA.
You and Bernard-Henri Levy have lifted my spirits a bit. (Next interviewee, perhaps?)
Interesting here in NZ. Had the virus taken control, I’m not sure whether people would have responded in a Swedish way or a British way. Community is probably stronger here than in much of the UK, but not all. The government response would undoubtedly have been highly authoritarian
Sweden lacks in abilities. Ever since the constitution was changed in 1974 and the government was allowed to appoint civil servants without giving priority to merits, incompetence is slowly taking over. The reason that Covid-19 was allowed to spread instead of being hunted down by infection tracing was because the ability to do large scale infection tracing has been lost.
This was a consequence of the Smittskydsinstitutet (The Institute of infectious protectio) being transformed to the Folkhälsomyndigheten (The Office for Public Health). Focus shifted from infectious diseases to PC subjects like the transgender experience of forest fires or the problem racified (people who are white but appointed to honorable Blacks) have when visiting a health care center.
Anders Tegnells job has been to retroactively explain why proper action has not been taken. When sick people arrived from the Alps he explained that COVID-19 does not spread outside the Alps. Earlier he explained that it did not spread in the Alps but only in China.
When old people with COVID-19 where sent to home for old people where care givers had no protection, Tegnell explained that protective equipment did not work.
And so on. Incompetence explain why Sweden acts differently
Stefan – very interesting comment. Please expalin some more, especially your second sentence.
Please tell us why anyone would be appointed black
The Idea is that muslins are black, although they are white in skin colour. Any criticism of Islam can than be labelled racism. Example: A man complained about the sounds of the Muslim all to prayer. He wrote that it sounds like a donkey in pain. He was accused of racism but not convicted.
Hi Stephan – that’s a very old definition of racism. Why go that far when I can be accused of racism if I tell an Irish joke – and I’m 100% the same race as an Irishman.
But can I ask again for a bit more explanation of this line of yours:
” Ever since the constitution was changed in 1974 and the government was allowed to appoint civil servants without giving priority to merits …”
Thanks Freddie. So glad I found UnHerd. It’s saving my sanity. An excellent article that makes a lot of sense. I’m in Canada, Vancouver and I wish we’d approached Covid in a similar way to Sweden. I’m having a problem with the mask issue and I’m also concerned about all the hysteria around rising cases as restrictions are gradually removed ,(but deaths are down).People here seem to be obsessed with the mask issue. If you don’t wear a mask you’re either an idiot ( Covidiot) or a murderer! I feel increasingly defensive. I’m a retired registered nurse with years of experience and I resent being branded as some kind of nutter. Translink, the company that runs public transport, ie the buses and Skytrain, are mandating masks be worn on transit starting in two weeks time. NOT because our Public Health Officer has made it so………no. Translink’s customers have demanded it !!!!!
Once again Freddy, you prove to be an inspiration. I met with a medical doctor today who was of the opinion wearing face masks was a selfless act of care in the community and that the radical UK lock down is why the mortality rate is low. I disagreed and consider the punitive practice as pure political propaganda to encourage confidence for shoppers in order to kick start the failing and fragile economy. The aggressive UK lock down may well of prolonged the viral infection and has created unnecessary hardship for many poor people and their families. God only knows what excess deaths will occur because of suspended medical treatments. Throughout the “pandemic” you have objectively, interviewed a number of highly qualified epidemiologists, statisticians and biophysicists. The common thread is that they are all of similar opinion that the virus is mild by comparison and that herd immunity will develop over time. And, probably has already to a great degree. I become quite perplexed when the Government state they are following the science, when stellar scientists contradict. I wish we had stayed on course following in the mode of Sweden prior to Professor Ferguson’s dismal predictions. Thank you and keep up the good work, it is invaluable. An interesting insight of Swedish culture!
Find it interesting that the Swedish left-right divide on the issue of government-mandated shutdowns is broadly the opposite of the U.S.
Many issues are simply framed as oppositional. If it’s imposed by Trump, Democrats oppose, if it’s imposed by Obama, Republicans oppose. Irrespective of the topic at hand. There are many gotcha videos on YouTube showing this by asking for feedback on policies when presenting them as if they had been proposed by the other party.
Well writen piece. What I missed was the narcolepsy story after the 2009 swine flu vaccination campain. Anders Tegnell was in charge of the mass vaccination in Sweden which left 500 children behind with narcolepsy after getting a hastily developed vaccine. Guess, this might have played a role in his decision making having had experienced such serious side effects after adminstering a not well developed vaccine. My assumption is that he is simply not sharing the optimism of other public-healh figures (and of interested commerical parties) that we would have a safe and effective vaccine anytime soon. So, he might have prefered to attempt reaching quick natural population immunity over waiting for a vaccine to achieve an uncertain and late population immunity
Narcolepsy is a debilitating condition that causes overpowering daytime sleepiness, sometimes accompanied by a sudden muscle weakness in response to strong emotions such as laughter or anger. So far, there is no cure.
And in addition: if ever a vaccine was NOT necessary it was for the swine flu. So it’s a good thing Anders Tegnell has learned his lesson from this. For the rest of the world apparently the swine flu was just a precedent for the mass hysteria we are in right now.
An excellent piece.
Not sure I’d buy into these cultural differences between people around the world. I mean a lot of us here in sweden have been influenced by British values for many many decades. Or French. Or German. Or Finnish. Etc.
What I think mostly differ is that here, our politicians didn’t interfere. They wisely let Anders Tegnell and his team communicate their strategy straight to us citizens.
And how he did that!
I actually didn’t like him to start with, but by pure logos, ethos and pathos he changed the whole attitude, singlehandedly..
It’s the definition of good leadership, and has little to do with national cultural differences (Shackleton would nod approvingly.)
Man of the year? That’s an understatement.
He has preserved sanity in the western world.
It would seem there are mixed inputs here. Some parts informed by leftish community-oriented thinking, cultural homogeneity and a deference to experts (which can work out when, as in this case, the experts end up being right), but also by a constitution with aggressive limitations on government’s ability to infringe on rights of individuals.
Whatever the reasons may be, it’s been extremely valuable to have a state-level “control” on the effectiveness of lockdowns.
Is it too late to trade Fauci for Tegnell?
I am so glad I found Unherd since March . I look forward to your articles and interviews and they reflect my own views and observations. I particularly enjoyed this one – searching for society’s values and putting a finger on why it does what it does . Respect is a word that comes to mind. Swedes clearly seem to respect themselves , each other and their environment. I think we have a lot to learn there.
A very interesting and thought provoking article, as are the comments and discussions. I am very happy to have “discovered” Unherd. A few comments of my own would be that culture most certainly will have an impact on how a society responds to crises. I have read of similar responses to that by Sweden in countries like Taiwan and Japan. Relative uniformity in social standing and cultural values means the population regulates it own response without excessive intervention from government.The fore-mentioned countries were of course more practiced in dealing with viral outbreaks and in addition it appears that previous exposure to SARS may have resulted in many Pacific Rim countries higher levels of immunity to Sars Cov-2. In the case of the US, a volatile social and political environment, the media abetting and cheer-leading the intensity and antagonistic nature of opposing (and sometimes aligning) political goals with respect to internal and external (China) agendas have greatly influenced government at every level, public discourse and uniformity of response and outcomes.
A very inspiring piece. It reminds me of Jonathan Haidt’s analysis of the left wing in the US and UK, which is that they only take notice of the care/harm aspect of morality, and neglect other values to do with having the collective work together (which include loyalty, sanctity and authority). Continental Europe it seems has a much broader view of well-being.
Lockdown in the UK has been depressing for the sterile government message to ‘stay home and save lives’, followed by ‘buy stuff you don’t need and save the economy’, when it could have been calling on us all to pull together and create a better society. Fortunately many of us have been doing just that. But we need a new story too, where we take a long-term view of health. It is about so much more than not catching a virus. We should not let ‘stay safe’ be the highest value.
It’s probably not the moment to point it out, but I find Jonathan Haidt’s analysis of the left lacking in one key caveat. Their priority for “care/harm” aspect applies *only* to their chosen in-groups, and is not universally applied. When it comes to the out-groups, they often don’t even want them to receive a trial most of the time, much less a fair one.
Everything else you mention, I couldn’t agree more.
Interesting – do you have an example?
An example would be Harvey Weinstein – rich, white, male – outgroup. The left did not ask for a trial to establish his guilt, but assumed that he was guilty, and attempted to punish him extrajudicially. This is a very different reaction to, say, Shamima Beghum, who, for the most part, was held up as an example of someone who was entitled to a fair trial before being judged guilty. Two different reactions depending on whether the alleged criminal is a member of the in-group or out-group.
Trying again – first one got swallowed up.
Nice article by Freddie Sayers, but (being half Swedish?) he left some aspects out. First, Sweden is known for a quite heavy social control. If public opinion and peer pressure are strong enough to control people’s behaviour you can indeed get reliable results without explicit rules. But the individual (lack of) freedom is not necessaryily much better in one case than the other.
Second, Swedes seem to be much more deferential to authority than some other Scandinavians. Immigration policy is a good example. If Sweden is rather more welcoming to immigrants, it is unlikely to be because Swedes are inherently nicer than e.g. Danes. Both countries started in the same place, with an educated elite strongly committed to tolerance and welcoming foreigners, and a population increasingy seeing it as a problem. Only in Sweden the elite managed to ostracise dissenting voices and impress its values on the populace, whereas is Denmark they tried and failed. The ‘version of the Social Democrats curently in power’ in Denmark is tough on immigration – reluctantly – because they know that any other policy would mean they could not get elected. Except for some progressive hold-outs, ‘tough on immigration’ is for good or ill the Danish consensus.
When Anders Tegnell decided that skiing holidays and graduation parties were more important than additional public health measures he was making a trade-off: That it was worth some extra deaths to let the Swedish people continue to ‘njuta’ in peace. No complaints there, that is exactly the kind of trade-off governments are supposed to make. But it does rather depend on how many avoidable deaths we are talking about. And here Tegnell basically took it for granted that the pandemic would not reach Sweden or was not very lethal, and that anyway there was nothing that could be done about it. He may yet be proved right (though it does not look like it from Denmark or New York) but whatever he thought *there is no way he could have known from the data then available*. In effect, he was gambling. Public health authorities in Denmark also wanted to keep to their prepared pandemic plans (even if they were prepared for flu, a rather different disease), stick to their comfort zone, and avoid drastic measures. Only in Denmark the government decided that this was not enough and took some action – and thank God for that. In Sweden the government deferred to the health authorities, the populace deferred to the government, and if that meant that Sweden did it differently from eveybody else – on the same data – people were happy to see this as one more proof of Swedish superiority. To each his own – but I am not moving to Stockholm any time soon.
Hey Rasmus.
Your obviously Danish but why so angry at Sweden? Chill brother, we are trying to do the best we can, just in the way we think is best.
You should read the very good article in danish newspaper that former danish prime minister Lars lokke Rasmussen wrote in may. He said an important aspect is economy over time and Sweden’s strategy may work best there. Not in short terms.
EU has just taxed all countries with billions of extra euros. But the pandemic is not over by far. There will be need for more taxes this anfall and winter. Is it worth it when the number show that a smal % dead are +70-80 years? I got 2 kids that are 16 and 18. What is their future if we don’t have jobs?
very interesting article. I’m been following Freddie and I like the way he interview professionals and let them speak their mind in lots of topics.
So many news just write war headlines to sell a quick story. We need more refreshing analyzing journalism like Freddie’s .
Am also half Swedish btw.
Hope I can take a trip to some other countries soon without people freaking out.
Pardon if I miss spell. 🙂
Well, I am not surprised if the Swedish approach is better for the economy. After all you made a conscious decision to accept additional deaths to keep the economy running. Now if that had been said straight out, I would disagree, but I would respect your choice. What I find hard to take is the Tegnell approach, not just his immense superiority, but insisting that *he* knows that this is not much worse than flu, and the number of dead would be the same regardless. He might be still proved right, but there is no way he (and he alone) could have known that for sure. If he wants to gamble people’s lives on his estimates he can at least have the grace to be humble about it. There was a time when UK policy was also to do nothing much and wait for herd immunity, and people kept asking how come Britain could be following a different ‘science-based’ policy when the science was supposedly the same everywhere. I find it significant that Sweden could adopt a policy that was so different to everyone else without ever wavering in the conviction that of course it was Sweden that was right and the rest of the world that was wrong.
Also I admit I am a little tired about the Swedish refrencees to the racist Danes. Of course we are ‘Brodrefolk’. Which I guess gives Sweden the kind of patronising superiority that big brothers feel towards younger siblings, and Denmark the resentment and irritation the younger siblings feel in return.
If you two could lighten up on the DK/SE bickering and focus on the reality as opposed to the strategy, imagine if the Swedish care homes and home help services had been running as they were in the 70’s/80’s. The number of deceased in Sweden would probably have been at least 50-60% less than it turned out to be. Take away the immigrant communities and it would be 70% less. My wife who’s worked in the home care sector for 40 years has witnessed at first hand the gradual deterioration and profit-orientated decline of this sector : privatisation, exodus of experienced swedish staff, recruitment of immigrant staff with limited language and social culture experience, younger swedes who would not dream of taking such demanding employment. Before Covid-19 old people in care were dying of malnutrition, lack of care, private enterprise focus on profit. The only difference with Covid-19 is the acceleration in time of death.
I never heard that Tegnell knew exactly how the flu would be, what I heard Tegnell said was that all indications pointed that the flu had low effect on children and mostly was dangerous to elderly.
The Tegnell strategy has been to keep the number of infected and in need for hospital treatment at such I low level that the medical system could handle it. With as low impact as possible for the rest of society.
I totally respect countries like Italy and UK who went in panic and lockdown because the elderly was dying at a high rate and the medical system could not handle all.
But that was not the case in Sweden.
I definitely don’t Tegnell gambled any strategy, he worked with this is whole life internationally and nationally. He made a calculation what would work best for Sweden.
As Tegnell had said it very unfortunate that the disease spread to some elderly homes, but some elder homes have managed to handle it very well. They took the decision to close the homes and have zero dead.
I find it interesting to se that in Danish news paper there are reports of a high mortality among Danish Somalis like we’d seen in Sweden with Swedish Somalis. Maybe the reason for that is that when Somalis get sick, their whole family come’s and visit. I don’t know if that is the case but that’s a discussion in the Swedish media. In Italy where children, mom, dad and grandparents live in the same home, could that explain the rapid spread there?
I get it that UK and US bunch the Nordic countries together and treat us like we are all fairly the same. We are too small countries and population and not that interesting to get in all the details. But we who live here know there’s a lot of different.
I don’t think there’s a right and wrong way in this pandemic. Every country has to make their own decision based on where they are economical, flu spread and health system. But I’m glad Sweden has stayed open as much as was possible.
As for the racist Danes I don’t know what you mean. I like Denmark and it’s very popular among all my friends and relatives.
Pardon if I misspell
Well, as it looks from here, Tegnell judged that everybody was going to get it anyway, and it was not too dangerous so that was not a problem. Just like the flu. The only thing needed was to to spread out the process so that the number of acute patients was not too big at any given time, and just accept that a limited number of people was going to die. The Danish Sundhedsstyrelse had similar ideas, as had some authorities in Britain. If it had been seasonal flu (I notice you called it ‘flu’, BTW) that would have been correct for sure, they had pandemic plans prepared specifically for flu. Countries that had experience of SARS went active straight away – they did not assume it was just like flu. China and Italy fairly quickly noticed that people were dying at an unprecedented rate and did not feel like assuming that you could treat it like another seasonal flu. But Tegnell just doubled down. He did not see any need to consider that this might be more dangerous than he had first thought. This is where I blame him. He may have been right or wrong, but on the available data there is no way he could be sure his first assumptions were correct. And if COVID proved to be more contagious and more dangerous than he first thought, at some point his policies could prove disastrous.
In fact this whole episode has made me think that maybe scientists are not the best people to take this kind of decision. It goes against the grain – I am a scientist myself, and believe firmly in evidence-based policy making, but it looks like scientists are not that good at taking decisions under high uncertainty. Politicians might be better in that respect (those that actually care about getting it right, as opposed to protecting their ego or getting the right headlines tomorrow, of course). In Denmark, for instance, the prime minster decided that the risks were too high to keep things nice and low-key as Sundhedsstyrelsen wanted, and took some action. In case this was not quite like the flu after all. And god on her.
Science remains sovereign (if you do it right) but you can see where scientists might be biased. We devote our careers to becoming certain, to understanding things, to making sure. So in a new and uncertain situation we are probably prone to assuming our known models remain good even when we are beyond the area where they have been tested. For one thing it feels acutely uncomfortable to admit that you do not understand what is happening. For another, how do you take reliable decisions when you have no model to work from? Even in uncertain situations we tend to make a hypothesis and go with that. Whereas what you really need to do is to get a realistic idea of the range and probabilities of possible outcomes, and then plan for alternatives.
Second try.
As it looks from here, Tegnell assumed that COVID was about like the flu, not much more dangerous, might never get to Sweden anyway, and anyway there was nothing one could do. So he went for the standard flu pandemic plans, doing just enough to slow the pandemic down so that the system was not overwhelmed, and aimed for minimum disruption while he waited till herd immunity kicked in and the unavoidable deaths had happened. He may have noticed that elderly people were more vulnerable, but I am not aware that he did anything particular to protect them. The Danish Sundhedsstyrelse started with a similar approach, as did some UK authorities. If those assumptions had proved right (and the jury is still out) that would be the best approach – but there is just no way Tegnell could be particularly sure from the data available then (or even now?). Countries with experience of SARS (and access to the same scientific data) preferred a much more active approach. China and Italy noticed that people were dying at an unprecedented rate and did not choose to wait for herd immunity. Various countries proved that you could actually stop the epidemic locally. And countries like Denmark and the UK decided that it might be wiser not to just do the minimum and trust their health bureaucracies that it would be all right regardless. Tegnell just doubled down. I do not doubt that he sincerely believed that his assumptions were correct, and everybody else was just panicking, but to me that looks more like hubris, or gambling, than superior intellect. If you believe that Tegnell simply drew the correct, rational conclusion from available scientific data, you ought to explain why Sweden was about the only country to take a rational decision to that effect. Was the Swedish situation essentially different from that of all other countries? Or was Sweden the only country capable of drawing an obvious conclusion from sufficient data? And in either case: what is it that makes Sweden so unique among the nations of the world? Anyway, I am glad that Denmark decided to prioritise people’s lives over the economy in an uncertain situation – and that Denmark seems to have had rather fewer deaths for whatever reason.
Actually, this whole affair has made me think that scientists may not be the best people to take this kind of decision. It goes against the grain ““ I am a scientist myself and I firmly believe in evidence-based policy making. But it looks like scientists may not be the best to take decisions under high uncertainty. Of course you need to get what data there are, and science is sovereign for that. But it is easy to see why scientists might be biased:
As scientists we have dedicated our career to producing ordered, reliable understanding of the world. I suspect that leaves us with a need for understanding and a bias towards trusting our models regardless, sometimes way beyond the range of situations they have been validated for (which is something I seem to have noticed a lot under the COVID epidemic). For one thing it can be acutely uncomfortable to consider that we may not actually understand what is going on. For another, how can we decide what to do if we do not have any model to work with? Even where the science is uncertain, I think we tend to make a hypothesis and go with that till something better takes its place. Unfortunately, what is needed under high uncertainty is something else: A fair appreciation of all the alternative possibilities and how likely they are, and a policy that takes all of them into account. And here other profession ““ even politicians – might have more experience to draw on.
As for the racist Danes, Freddie Sayers kindly suggested that the Danish ‘rush’ to close their borders was best explained by the ‘anti-immigration version of the Social Democrats who currently hold power there’. I thought that was worth a comment.
Seems a lot of us about, which statistically seems strange – time for a lockdown on us half Swedes to reduce transmission.
“Politics is downstream from culture,” postulated the late Andrew Breitbart, to which this most edifying essay lends credence.
Each population has a proportion of people not susceptible to Covid-19, probably because of genetics and/or previous exposure to other Coronaviruses. I guess this proportion is more than 70% in the UK. We can ‘flatten the curve’ but without a vaccine the virus will persist somewhere in the World and eventually infect nearly every susceptible person.
Well put, and interesting throughout. I’d only argue with the idea that these concepts are ‘not libertarian’. American libertarianism, broadly understood, is a mess of conflicting ideas and ideologies, but the older, intellectually coherent concept of libertarian society revolves around the kind of shared cultural norms you talk about in the article. Freedom within limits (the limits, in your example, being voluntary and amounting to not violating others’ freedoms by encroaching on their space) sounds like a idyllic libertarian concept to me.
More generally, Sweden is fascinating in that it is simultaneously extremely libertarian and not at all libertarian. Locally, it’s quite close. High levels of local autonomy, relatively limited interference in people’s lives, etc. Nationally, it’s the opposite; massive taxation and welfare state structures, etc. It’s an interesting balance. I don’t really have a conclusion; just find it to be a fascinating country.
I came here to say what you said. Some libertarianism – the kind of libertarianism with which Freddie is familiar – is akin to libertinism. But traditional, well-understood libertarianism is perfectly compatible with a cohesive society in which people self-govern around shared cultural norms. Bravo for the Swedes!
Wonderful article that gave me a gut level feel for why Sweden reacted as it did during this time, as well as a feel for the Swedish people as a whole. Beautifully explained.
And in regard to the US, one sentence stood out to me: “The fragmented and highly individualistic culture of the UK and US, without much by way of universally shared values to fall back on, is a big part of why the response in those countries has been so uncertain and the debate so poisonous.” Yes, we have always been a highly individualistic society. But through generations, we did have universally shared values. To be American meant something. People would come from all over the world to live here and blend into what was referred to as a ‘melting pot’. No longer. It has been ‘educated/indoctrinated’ out of our young for a few generations now. There are no longer universally shared values. There are only shifting values now that are created out of thin air that no one can keep up with them. And the commonality that was our melting pot has been turned into a collectivist platter with each tribe demanding their rules, for their purposes. We are in a fight for our soul here. We can barely agree on what to call a woman or man, let alone how to deal with Covid. While individuals may have ideas on what our response should have been, the collectives have taken over to push and pull us all into a mass of ridiculous poses and pointing fingers.
Sweden sounds pretty nice to this American.
Much of our policy was inspired by the american optimism after ww2. Our main politicians loved the american energy and attitude. If one reads modern history, one can argue that the goal of the swedish ‘strong state’ was to give e
veryone in sweden the opportunities to succeed. To level the chances . Sadly we’ve become more segregated the last 30 years thanks to insane privatisations, of housing, schools and social care, more than even in Britain I guess.
Nothing to add, except, thank you!
Helpful introduction to some key elements of Swedish culture to bear in mind along with Constitutional limitats on the powers of central government in getting your mind round their approach to CoVid 19. The idea that freedoms entail responsibility is not uniquely Swedish or even particularly left wing, nor is a broader awareness of the need to respect objective processes and the consequences of human action. Such principles were very much part of the picture in small town Vermont when I was young and are also evident in rural France where I live now. Regular engagement with natural processes, eg through agriculture, is one helpful element, another is education emphasising principles and responsibility.
Great piece. Thanks Freddie.
NZ has also lost its culture to the US media/corporate/PC liberal onslaught, and since education has also been captured the number of NZers truly able to form an informed opinion about anything is low. I am gobsmacked how useless Phd’s are around the world. During our lockdown the number of people ‘informing’ on neighbours for pushing stupid boundaries sadly reminded me of how easily stupid anxious people roll over before a quasi legal entity..nuff said
So I am currently living in the Canary Islands – we were supposed to be going to the Uk for a few weeks this Summer to see family, we go every Summer. But the insistence on quarantining for two weeks upon arrival (even though the incidence rate of Covid where I live is almost 0) has put the kerbosh on our plans.
So given Sweden is open for business and very much aligned with my own thinking on this nonsense, any suggestions of where two forty something adults and one 10 year old could spend 4 or 5 nights in Sweden – having never been before?
I like to relax, chill out, my wife does prefer the cities / more cosmopolitan areas…
My hometown Stockholm of course! Welcome to one of the safest places to travel. Most of the population is immune to Sars2. No facemasks required and no risk of lockdown/quarantine AND the hotels are really cheap this summer……
njuta (av vad gott är), allemansrätt, lagom – like spring water high up in the mountains – how wonderful! Thank you for your precise and powerful prose
Nationalism is all the rage because it gives the common man a sense of ownership and identity. But if he can’t roam the land, what’s that ownership worth? The Swedish idea of allemansratt complements nationalist politics perfectly. But the chances of Bunter and his pals extending the right to roam across the 50% of England that’s owned by less than 1% of its people are zero – it’s the 1%, the corporations and oligarchs that fund the Tories.
Interesting and well-written essay. Thanks!
A very depressing article – from a British point of view.
We seem to have lost the ability to be considerate to others here.
Does anybody have any ideas as to why?
British sits somewhere in between Northern Europe and Latin Europe – culturally speaking.
@Mark Corby
Sweden/Germany/Netherlands are far more “socialistic” than UK, if your definition is the welfare state.
The culture of envy spread by that pernicious virus, normally known as socialism.
Well envy may also be spread by TV advertising and all those awful “my wonderful house” programmes too. I would say a culture of greed and selfishness has been encouraged, particularly since 1979.
It had already started when Macmillan told us “you’ve never had it so good” in the early sixties I’m afraid.
I honestly think that’s more true on social media Or in public groups. On their own and in their homes Brits seem far more relaxed. During recent walking holiday this old woman was constantly fetched bottles of water, welcomed into homes to rest without any thought for masks etc and driven to destinations when weather became just too hot. Britons are for the most part tolerant, sensible and kind. They enjoy the richness of their countryside and their freedom to roam. But for good or ill, most seem prepared to go with the flow and follow government regulation rather than stand up and challenge whether the erosion of freedoms is worth it. The current measures will probably just slowly crumble away, as people realise that a rise in cases isn’t a necessarily rise in deaths or serious illnesses, and as they learn more about the resilience of their own immune systems, built up over millions of years of inhabiting the same world as viruses. I’d advise starting by listening to Sarika Gupta on Lockdown TV or Dr John Lee on the Brendan O’Neill
Show. The later also has an excellent interview w Lionel Shriver recorded about three months ago.
I think you’re spot on. Our neighbours & little village street have all being very concerned about one another. Narrow, medieval street, no paving, gutters Or streetlights. Some weed the common frontage, I cut neighbours hedges and chatted on Thursday claps for a while. Just 5 miles to the nearest city & no one is considerate. Which is more characteristic of U.K.? Perhaps it’s both!
But isn’t that community spirit in places outside the UK also generally more prevalent in smaller and/or rural and/or island and/or less modernised areas, and less prevalent in cities? When I first holidayed in Symi, a small Greek island, the man who drove our, and several other people’s, luggage up from the ferry unloaded it in the square and left it to bring along the narrow paths on foot later. No problem, it will be safe, he said. And it was. But I suspect he would not do that in Athens.
Yes, I think you’ve alighted on the heart of the matter. We lose trust in larger groups, and they in us.
That’s the most odd thing about all this – I rarely encounter someone who does not think that the response to covid is bonkers (the technical term). Yet they are not rebelling and just accepting the diktats thrown at them. Mind my Gran always maintained we were all going soft.
This is well said. In general I find my fellow Brits to be respectful of each other face to face but social media would give a very different perspective. Perhaps smaller rural communities are better at appreciating that we all have to live together harmoniously than bigger urban ones – maybe partly a consequence of having more ‘personal space’ in the countryside.
I agree with you that in time there may well be a gradual erosion of the perceived importance of distancing etc, on the proviso that we do not see a large increase in deaths/hospitalisations.
Also that for the majority of people in the UK the path of least distress is to go along with what is being asked of them, irrespective of the rights or wrongs. They do not consider it worthwhile to invest huge energy in researching or questioning the messaging. I suspect that the commenters on this board represent the minority, in that we probably on the whole are either frustrated by what we see as a disproportionate reaction to CV or frustrated by those who deny that the response was warranted.
Unfortunately, for those of us who do perceive the government response to be inappropriate, waiting for the gradual erosion of measures seems a very unsatisfactory outcome. That is why alternative approaches like https://greenbandredband.com are needed.
Interesting article. Could anyone write a similar piece about the U.K. or England? What are our values? How do we preserve our freedom, our sense of enjoyment? Do we have words that encapsulate how we think and feel?
I am married to a Swede and have a beautiful house up in Orsa, Dalarna. However, my viewpoint is very simple in that it does not really matter about your culture, social norms and behaviour of the majority of the population, since in every country/society, you will unfortunately find a minimum of 10% of the population who are total morons and mess it up for everyone else. Even in lovely Dalarna (countryside/middle of nowhere) I was sent videos of huge parties in doors with over 500 people drinking and dancing like sardines and no masks and the same in Stockholm for graduation parties etc,etc. It will spike again in Sweden due to this and lack of masks etc. Sweden will face a horrible Autumn/Winter as everybody has to go inside and the bug will spread (don’t believe the herd immunity claims either). I missed my summer holiday in Sweden this year thanks to the idiotic policies of the government since I refuse to put my family at risk. And P.S it is not doing so well. https://www.ft.com/content/…
On the winter resurgence risk, are you concerned theoretically, or have you seen or read something that prompts you to regard it as likely, or worse? I think it’s unlikely. In U.K., our massed infections look to have really got going in late Feb & peak death rate was Apr 8-10, followed by 15 weeks of steady decline. Gupta et al show that a low herd immunity threshold would fit the data better than other explanations for the 99% fall in all endpoints.
“It will spike again in Sweden due to this and lack of masks etc. Sweden will face a horrible Autumn/Winter as everybody has to go inside and the bug will spread (don’t believe the herd immunity claims either).” On what do you base this claim? How do you explain that severely hit regions in Italy see very few new cases despite having much less harsh restrictions in place?
There is a growing collection of thinking related to the percentage of the population that appears to have some underlying immunity to COVID 19 based on factors such as how their immune systems dealt with other coronaviruses, genetic differences and past immunizations. An article in this weekend’s Washington Post put the number around 40%, maybe a bit higher. If you add that to the percentage of people who got the virus in hotbeds like Northern Italy or the New York metro region this spring (20-30% is not an unreasonable estimate based on antibody tests, which increasingly appear to under-count, as well as extrapolations from fatalities) then you start to get hotbeds with 60-70% immunity at this point. That is something like “herd immunity” and I bet those areas won’t have big new spikes.
Now, does that mean most areas are bound to have the virus run through 20-30% of the population, meaning nearly half the people not harboring preexisting immunity? If yes, filling that “quota” with people under 50, who have VERY LOW death rates, and keeping them away from those who are older, plus getting better and better at treating those who are sick, seems smart.
Agree with you completely. It’s a relief that my views along these lines, developing in me since late April, are now commonplace if not yet mainstream.
Meanwhile our stupid U.K. government is going round mass testing healthy young people then locking down when they find ‘cases’. It’s an act of self Harm which will increase deaths. Each easy survivor acts as an additional immunological firebreak. We want lots of them, so closing schools was idiotic.
Italy was the first country in EU to get hit (bad luck) . Sweden had time to prepare, it did not.
If you judge Sweden by its own GOV publicly stated goals, the government has failed
1) protect the elderly – it failed
2) test and track – it failed (gotten better may be)
And its economic hit is as bad as Norway/Denmark/Finland.
Sorry to be flippant, but I am amused by the idea of “drinking and dancing like sardines”. 🙂
..
I didn’t notice at first but it’s rather good. I’m not sure if it’s just the dancing that is sardine-like, or the drinking as well. A bit oily for my tastes.
I think the chances of that are … zero. If you are infected your response will be in a week or so. For most people the response is … nothing, asymptomatic, no symptoms. The fact that reported infections and deaths are rapidly approaching zero, all the while no masks and not much social distancing, is concrete evidence that there IS immunity. There is no other explanation.
I won’t categorically rule out some sort of second wave during colder weather, given that many respiratory viruses have a strong seasonal pattern.
Graham’s broader argument, however, if anything argues against such a wave in Sweden.
For the time being, Sweden has reached a very low level of transmission of this virus. Reported COVID fatalities (per Worldometer) have steadily declined and are now at approximately 1 per day.
And that’s with the people who would “mess it up for everyone else” doing whatever they’re going to do, with the coronavirus circulating for several months. It’s logical to think that a disproportionate number of that sub-group of the population already got infected at some point, because they’re the ones who are going to keep socializing while ignoring social distancing rules. Or, at least, they’re going to keep doing that unless they’re stuck at home due to a combination of (1) legal penalties and (2) every place they’d want to go being ordered to close, neither of which occurred in Sweden.
The places to worry most about a big resurgence of transmission are countries where the virus was suppressed without many people infected. Those are the places where even so-called superspreaders likely haven’t had the virus. (And Graham is describing a subset of people as likely superspreaders due to lack of caution in their behavior.)
I’m sorry Sweden are in many regards extreme laizzez faire. In regard to crime the ruling left wing middle class don’t care if young immigrants murder each other, the number of shootings and bomb donations is scaring, as is the number of armed robberies, where young peoplerob other young people, The number of burned down pre schools is the highest in Europe. The number of corona dead is by English numbers small, but the percentage is among Europes highest. One reason is that elderly care home management is beyond par. The municipalities has no control manegement or they don’t care because they don’t have the money.
And the economy is going downwards. Too.
They are not just killing each other. A 12 year old Swedish girl was killed in a drive-by shooting last week while walking the dog.
Unfortunately for me Holland should not be included in the no mask group. Prior to my journey to Holland I have been sent a list of what masks are acceptable. Apparently my self made cotton scarf type is not, neither is my bought one with a ventilator. If I fail to wear one, even in the family car I can be fined several thousand euros. It seems much more stringent than the U.K.
Sad to read this (it was originally referred to Giulia comment, but it applies for Frederick too.
I was talking to a German friend living in Amsterdam few days ago and she told me her perception it is like life goes on as normal
I am from Holland and like always in Holland we don’t look at the facts (we couldn’t care less) but we make compromises. So the mayors in Holland have been granted the right by the central government to experiment with mouthmasks. Some cities do, some cities don’t and if they do, than usually it’s only a few shoppingstreets and in Amsterdam ofcourse the redlight-district. It’s still in a very early stage and for now it’s mainly Amsterdam and Rotterdam who have some kind of regime/regulation but in a few weeks it could be total chaos from one city to another. Only in public transportation it’s mandatory on a national level. Personally I think the world has gone mad, the Netherlands included.
Not sure who has been sending this list to you. As Frederik pointed out below, it is only mandatory to wear facial masks in public transportation. We have just been spending a weekend in Zeeland as an escape from the Belgian madness: I have seen only 4 people within 2 days wearing a mask.
Very good article. The strong individualistic culture in the USA and dreadful leadership from the GOP highlights the essential selfishness of US society and of course the appalling health care system built on care for the wealthy. Unlike Canada and Sweden. But please use the term ‘physical distancing’, not ‘social distancing’, as recommended by the World Health Organisation…I mentioned this before. Take note!
“… strong individualistic culture in the USA”
Americans love the “free” welfare state as much as anyone else. Look at Medicare and old white people that vote.
As a Tea Party member said “keep your government hands out of my Medicare”.
I have a lot of time for Freddy, and the Swedes. But I think he’s wrong that Britain (and the US) don’t have shared values. If you’re a Brit you know exactly what it means and you feel it in your blood and guts (as I think everyone feels it about their country otherwise people wouldn’t cling to those identities so much when they emigrate). Individual freedom is also chained to personal responsibility, or as us Brits call it ‘manners’ and ‘duty’. If we’ve lost that at all it is due to the splintering of our nation by globalisation, multiculturalism and mass immigration. Brexit is a perfect example of a very British resistance to those things (politely, at the ballot box) because we DO have a sense of self as a nation and we want to preserve it before it’s too late. And don’t forget that the UK initially took the same view as Sweden, but the political pile-on, shaming and accusations of murder, plus the ICL scaremongering report, forced a change of course which is now hellishly difficult to extricate ourselves from and is being used as a political brickbat by the (Remain, it has to be said ) opposition and MSM who can sit back and say whatever they like. And do. I’ve been watching and studying the media reporting – and I will not forget.
This sense of manners and duty is being rapidly diminished. I note, for example, the huge quantity of litter now apparent in almost every British town, and along every motorway without exception. This to me seems symptomatic of the break of a social contract: when even basic aesthetic regard for your environment, alongside the sentiment, “to hell with anyone who finds my litter disgusting”, is sure sign that there fewer and fewer social bonds that unite the British.
So enlightening, thank you. And it makes me almost weep to think that the day is fast approaching when the Swedes’ innate sense (therefore largely self-policing, no doubt) of Lagom will be crushed mercilessly by a hyper-immigration system which can never produce integration fast enough to keep up with its rate. A type of enlightened and compassionate cultural suicide.
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Freddie Sayers (being half Swedish?) is missing a few aspects. One is that Sweden is known for a very high level of social control. If moral pressure and social disapproval are strong enough to control people there is less need for regulations. The (lack of) freedom for individuals can be about the same in either case.
Another is a much higher Swedish deference to authority. I do not believe that Swedish immigration policies are more welcoming because Swedes are inherently nicer than Danes. Both countries started with an educated elite in favour of immigration, and much popular discontent. Only in Sweden the educated elite managed to impose itself on the population in a way they failed to do in Denmark. The Social Democrats ‘who currently hold power in Denmark’ are tough on immigration – reluctantly – because that is the only way any party can get a majority. Except for some progressive hold-outs ‘Tough on immigration’ is for good or ill the political consensus in Denmark.
In prioritising skiing holidays and graduation parties over precautionary health measures, Tegnell is making a trade-off: letting Sweden continue to njuta in peace is worth some people dying. That is the kind of trade-off that governments are supposed to make. But the balance depends rather critically on how many people are likely to die, and how effective the health measures can be. Tegnell has from the beginning taken for granted that it was not going to be very dangerous, and there was nothing anybody could do anyway. He may still end up being proved right, *but there was no way he could know that from the available evidence*. He was, in effect, gambling. Danish health authorities too would have liked to stick to their prepared plans (even if they were prepared for the flu, a different disease) assumed they already knew all they needed, and gone ahead without rocking the boat. But Danish politicians, maybe more used to decision making under uncertainty than the scientists, decided to take more drastic action – and thank God for that. In Sweden the government deferred to the health authorities, the population deferred to the government (even as the death tolls mounted) and people happily assumed that if Sweden is out of step with the rest of the world it only proves how superior Sweden is. To each his own, I guess.
https://www.youtube.com/wat…
A good explanation of C19 policy in Sweden (IMHO).
It seems increasingly evident that everybody panicked, including Sweden. Whereas there were fewer mandated restrictions in Sweden, nonetheless, Swedes locked themselves down. Do they do this every flu season ? Have they done this for pandemics past ?
I’m not sure panic is a reasonable description for what happened. In some cases, sure. Same in U.K. where my wife & I have friends where both of a couple have insisted that they won’t return to prior behaviours until there’s a vaccine, even if it’s years. We’ve already gone back to normal as much as is possible. That’s because my family benefits from me being an experienced life scientist so I’ve been able to review all the published source documents upon which SAGE made its recommendations. Thereafter to read all papers & interviews including on Lockdown TV with many experts. It’s clear that the virus has moved through all the European populations. In U.K. we’re in the last 1-2% of events in this pandemic. It’s theoretically possible there could be a winter resurgence but no data anywhere indicates that as a likelihood.
Last 1-2% of events in this pandemic? Really? What is the cause? Have we reached herd immunity now? References welcome. Meanwhile I shall keep to social isolation as much as possible (to be fair, not a great hardship i my case).
@Michael Yeadon.
OK, I saw your post above. I cannot evaluate if it makes sense to assume that, essentially, about half the population was immune or not bothered by the virus in the first place. But in a crowd of people who all assume the best without evidence and who are furious that anyone dares interfere with their freedom of movement just becauset there is a lethal pandemic, well, you are the first, Tegnell included, that I find worrth taking seriously. I shall still keep isolated till we know that the pandemic has abated, but let us hope you are right.
Thank you for your uncommon courtesy. For myself, I was at first very frightened. I’m just old enough to be at 1% risk of dying if I caught the virus & my reaction to this told me I’m nowhere near ready to go!
I have always fully complied with lockdown, social distancing & masks, even though I’m as sure as I can be that they have no protective benefit to others. I know it’s a different setting, but this is the only peer reviewed, randomised controlled trial & it looks like medical mask vs usual practise didn’t protect. Face cloths were slightly worse than the other wo groups. The endpoint is respiratory virus infection, some of it clinically confirmed. The subjects, though working around hospitals, are most likely to be the sources as much as the targets of viruses. It’s really a complex workplace study.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.go…
I think it’s an understanding which requires a lot of reading to bring together the elements making that the best explanation of the overall profile. The best references include Drosten on preexisting T-cell reactivity
https://www.medrxiv.org/con…
And Ioniddes on infection fatality ratios:
https://www.medrxiv.org/con…
Finally, Gupta or Gomez on how low the herd immunity threshold is likely to be. https://www.medrxiv.org/con…
You don’t need to read lots of papers to decide to live a normal life. It’s obvious that the increased mortality risk over a lifetime from Covid is miniscule, so why live in fear?!
I’m curious what you can possibly mean by “working so well”?
Those interested in estimates of infection fatality rate might choose to read this paper. It’s old & I’ll see if it’s been superseded.
The number the authors alight upon is 0.27%.
https://www.medrxiv.org/con…
As they say though, IFR is not a fixed thing. It depends on who is infected. There certainly are cohorts in whom IFR is >1%, others where it’s <0.05% or less. We need an estimate representative of the population of the country we live in, if we wish to gain a better understanding of how things stand around us.
Thank you, what a good article, I very much agree, and have enjoyed sveral articles by Freddy. It’s no coincidence either that Sweden is a counry where the Greens are relatively strong politically
They are also strong in Germany (where the movement began) and France (last local election).
Well written Freddie. I would really like to believe your thesis but unfortunately I don’t.
As far as I can tell opinion polls are pretty consistently the same everywhere: whatever it’s perceived that the experts recommend is the most popular position. I suspect if Anders Tegnell didn’t exist then Sweden would have very similar sorts of COVID ‘experts’ as everywhere else, Sweden’s response would be similar to that of Germany or the Netherlands, and that would be popular as well.
I’m pretty sure what happened in Sweden is the result of Anders Tegnell being left alone to basically shape the response as he saw fit, rather than what happened in the UK where the government was advised by committees of academics who could each stake personal ownership on a tiny aspect of the response, with nobody in particular being responsible for the overall result. In Sweden there appears to be no equivalent of SAGE (lucky for them), and thus it fell to Tegnell to weigh all the aspects of the response. Not just the medical aspects but also cultural and economic aspects. He did an exemplary job, but I suspect he’d have fared far worse if put in a committee and told “shut up about economics and focus on the epidemiology”.
Having known quite a few Swedes, I do feel they were generally unflappable and relaxed. But I also know it’s tempting to over-generalise and indulge in national stereotypes, only to get a shock when you encounter people who don’t fit the mold at all.
Is allemansrätt, meaning something like “everyone’s right to roam” written in the Swedish constitution which is why they cannot enforce a lockdown without changing it?
Here comes a simplified explanation: Allemansrätten has nothing to do with lockdown and it is not a right to roam free. However, it is a right for every Swede to have access to the nature, walk and ride through the nature, pick flowers, berries etc.
The regulation regarding “lockdown” connected with a pandemic is in the hands of the regional infectious Disease Control officer/doctor to decide about under the present law.
Thank you for your clarification Anders
It also exists in the whole of northern europe, even in Scotland (which I count to europe). Austria. Germany, from where I guess we translated “jedermannsrecht”.
Certainly Freddie an interesting article. If perhaps a tad smug, in that annoying Swedish way they have (and I do like them, and their country, and have spent time there in different places and assuming different roles). However, your article would make perfect sense, and be more instructive, if Sweden had not done so badly, so very badly, in comparison with Norway, Denmark and Finland. You cannot pretend that the virtues you extol do not exist in Denmark, Norway, or Finland, because you know they do. Why then did they lock-down and Sweden was less strict (terrible to say laissez-faire, shocking)? Why did Sweden have around 8000 cases per million population compared to around 1,500-2,500 cases pmp in the other three countries? Despite Denmark doing vastly MORE testing? The Swedish response not tracking or tracing cases was calamitous, and as appalling as the UK (and for the same reason – lack of pandemic preparedness). The Swedish mortality is around 600 ppm compared to 50-100 for the other three countries. Again – why? Do you not think these metrics matter far more than some romantic blithering about lagom etc? I count success (as a former doctor) as saving lives. The nursing home scandal in Sweden was another alarming failure. What is it about smug self-satisfied Sweden that it pretends it is faring well when so many people died, and far more than need have been the case had they acted to retard the spread of the viral infection more effectively using different measures, and by tracking tracing and isolating infected people? A shame a nicely written article simply avoids the difficult conversations, another terrible Swedish failing!
Another great piece Freddie. You and UnHerd have been a real breath of sanity during the covid-mania. In New Zealand where our government is really doubling down and our media surely must be among the worst most irresponsible anywhere (a big call I know given the examples around) you have been a psychological life saver. I’ve just gone through and bookmarked all your pieces/interviews I’ve used as I’ve tried to get people to at least look at things rationally. I hadn’t realised how many there were. I’m working with a group of (mainly) medical academics (http://www.covidplanb.co.nz) who have been trying to penetrate the media fog for months to try and present a more rational narrative with no success (we’ve got Prof. Gupta among others on a livestream video-conference tomorrow so here’s hoping). Given the government has re-applied lockdowns and doesn’t intend on letting go until after the election we need to step things up again, and we’ve all got better things to do. I needed to refresh my memory on some things, dates, etc. So back to UnHerd. Anyway, thanks for it all. I’ll subscribe when I get back to earning myself.
I wouldn’t agree about that “shielding of vulnerable groups, while keeping society as open as possible” is the right description of the Swedish strategy. Most of the deaths has been in vulnerable groups and the ones that isn’t dead yet (me), is suffering since march, from a “lookdown” in their homes, without beeing able to make their shopping or transports or meet anyone. The reason is that our (?) prime minister Löfven and FHM (Tegnell) has refused to take decision on obligatory masks to protect vulnerable groups from asymptomatic infection. At the same time the public transportations are reported to be crowded (no distance what so ever) and young people are seen in restaurants, at beaches etc enjoying their time.
Tegnell e-mails published recently indicated that the secret agenda has been herd immunity, and my guess is that that is the reason why “the mask decision” is likely never to be taken. The vulnerable people in Sweden are sacrificed again. Sweden is a class society and the old people has not much value here.
Yes, it is indeed an interesting “paradox”. But, I increasingly suspect – similar to what’s happening in the “USSA” – the “Soros insurrection” of
DemonRAT lib-t**d [primarily] wenches in to positions of legal/political power, Sweden and its “protege” sister “Mogahdishu on the Mississppi”, “Somali-apolis” in “Somali-sota” is self-destructing, regardless the embed capitalist resolve of “biz as usual” to maintain some sort of semblance to national independence/personal freedoms by . . . PROSPERITY.
Great article. The first thing that comes to mind for me, in understanding their quite calculated, yet surprising response to the pandemic threat, is a cultural tradition that has been made possible by at least a basic, universal endorsement of common socio-cultural priorities. An unspoken understanding exists across a society, that up until fairly recently has been quite homogeneous in its make up. The US has traditionally taken pride in a system that encourages all to come and partake of individual basic freedoms; to participate in a system of boundless opportunity and unlimited possibilities. The unforeseen problem that is becoming increasingly apparent is both a lack of emphasis-on (by immigration policy makers) and a lack of willingness-to (by an evermore diverse group of immigrants) see the importance of assimilation into a society who’s culture is increasingly struggling to identify a basic minimum standard of what it means to call oneself an “American”. Sprinkle in a frequent peppering of identity politics and the “apple pie and hot dogs” image just seems to be nothing more than fodder for movies like “Field of Dreams”.
I may have missed any posts on this, but should we not question why there is no discussion about how to prevent pandemics, or lessen their likelihood? According to David Waltner -Toewns in his book On Pandemics, the shameful way we treat the planet and the creatures we share it with is at the base of every zoonotic disease and Covid 19 is one of many zoonotic diseases. How are we addressing that? Where is the discussion about how to make yourself healthier and what you can do to protect yourself, other than wearing a mask and hiding away? We will all die from destroying our planet which is continuing as we write, and so the idea we are protecting people by social distancing and wearing masks is put into a very different perspective.
A measured article much like the Swedes’ response (except the same mistakes we made with care homes) No-one wants the Swedes to do well otherwise it puts our draconian response into dispute. Although people are crowing over the poor economy Sweden has temporarily as a result, no-one seems to mention the fact that their health system was operating for other vulnerable members of the community. Compare that with the estimated 30k deaths anticipated from undiagnosed cancer in the UK alone, along with other physical and mental illnesses. Ditto education. Ditto employment. They have wisely taken the long term view and we will see how sensible that was very soon………….
I am an American in London (since 2006) and i have spent an enormous amount of time working (investment banking, structured products) with clients from Northern Europe. So I would like to think I know something (not everything) about that part of the world.
All those countries have high migration numbers (even before the 2015 crisis) so demography is not the explanation. Nor is individual freedoms, check World Value Survey and see where Sweden scores vs. USA/UK. Do the Germans/Swedes/Dutch recycle 2x as much the British….because British are more individualistic?
The difference is that in all those countries the population accepts (and demands) a well functioning state. And it is willing to pay for it.
Someone (who?) said that “UK wants European welfare with American levels of taxation. In America we just borrow money and pretend that we don’t have a state to finance.
Swedish policy (based on SWE GOV own goals) has been a failure, and one explanation why is because the government’s performance has been declining for a very long time (see criminality). The GOV is too busy fighting Social Justice battles.
SWE GOV just dropped the ball, is that simple.
Henrik Jonsson (youtube commentary) explains the (non) working of Swedish state very well (IMHO):
Swedish Corona Strategy (there is a reference to an UnHerd Interview)
https://www.youtube.com/wat…
Swedish GOV policy on C19
https://www.youtube.com/wat…
This article plays down the COVID mortality rate in Sweden. It is well above the US mortality rate which is itself incredibly high. It is over seven times the average rate of the other three Scandinavian countries. If Sweden had been like that of its neighbors then about 5,000 Swedes would not have died. If Swedes can accept this, fine. But don’t sell it to the rest of the world as something to be admired.
The evidence elsewhere suggests strongly that lockdown made no measurable difference to the rate of transmission of the virus. You do know that it was never expected that lockdown would reduce deaths? And it didn’t. Once you realise that, then you’re forced to look for other causes of differential outcomes, such as initial infection seeding rate (thought v likely to have been drivers in U.K. & US, through exceptionally high visitor rates to London & NY) & especially to varying extents of prior resistance to the virus. Even Prof Whitty, the U.K. CMO, accents that the pandemic had turned from expansion to slow decline before lockdown (statement made to a parliamentary select cmte recently). So this isn’t a marginal idea, but a mainstream one, even though for understandable reasons, authorities are happiest being quiet about it.
Interesting. Are you saying that the course of the pandemic is independent of the behaviour of the population ? (??) Or that the behaviour of the populatoin is independent onf government instructions? References welcome.
I understand it to be both. If you’re willing to explore, try OurWorldInData.org and select the countries & data representation of interest. The timecourse of uk & Sweden are superimposed. Not similar, but identical. Not talking of numbers but the shape of the daily deaths vs time function. That’s one piece of evidence that might prompt a person to ask a question about the efficacy of lockdown.
Another is from our own Prof Whitty. In a parliamentary select committee hearing recently he agreed that the pandemic had turned from rapid expansion (R>>1) to slow contraction (R<1) BEFORE lockdown. This can be confirmed by inspection of the daily deaths curve, where peak was April 8th. The interval between infection and death varies, but median estimates are around 24 days. Lockdown was just 16 days before peak deaths. As lockdown didn’t turn the pandemic, something else must have. I now believe it was the rapidly diminishing remaining % susceptible.
Or people could have done a lot of the reduced social distancing by themselves, before BJ got around to give any instructions. i started working from home a short week before the order. It sounds rather counterintuitive to conclude that such massive social changes as we have had have exactly zero effect – all on the basis of a similarity between graphs without a clear understading of the underlying mechanism. But I am not up to discussing the details. We will soon know if the pandemic really is over and all but 1-2% of the deaths have already happened, as you suggest.
I think we ought to sort out this elemetal confusion from the off. Constant use of incorrect or made up names just makes the virus more scary and harder to pin down. SARS-CoV2 is the novel corona virus. It is a specific virus distinguished by its RNA from other corona viruses. There is currently no fool proof test for its presence. Current knowledge holds that SARS-CoV2 and HKU1 are species of one genus – like Tiger and Lion in the Panthera genus. This genus belong to the felidie family including all cats. The parralel with viruses complicates things, because so little is known they are often divided in “quasispecies. So best to think of Viruses as “beer” Corona Viruses as “lager” and SARS-CoV2 as “Stella Artois” (its big in Belgium)
Keep repeating a lie and will become true.
The comparison has been debunked so many times and with so many details, there are no more excuses of ignorance for who keep bringing this up.
To judge if something is incredibly high, the only more or less objective standard is the excess mortality per country. Sweden is quite low, lower than most countries that have gone mad (like the UK and southern Europe). I rest my case, look it up for yourself if you’re really interested in the facts.
I did:
Excess deaths per 100000 people, TheEconomist.com, as of August 7:
Britain: 96
Italy: 78
Netherlands: 54
Sweden: 52
Germany 11
Denmark: 8
Norway: -5
There was basically no excess mortality in the season of acute respiratory illnesses for 2019/20 when you compare the season with the one’s of the past 30 years: shorturl.at/xADX4 … there might have been mortality spikes in some regions, but overall, 2019/20 belongs to the seasons with lowest death counts over the part 30 years.
There have been about 84,000 cases of Covid in Sweden, nearly six thousand deaths, 572 deaths per million, which is much higher than the US. All the Scandinavian countries share similar values, yet all the others locked down and implemented stricter measures, and saw dramatically fewer deaths. Tegnell was hoping to reach herd immunity quickly, and was willing to sacrifice these lives to get it over with quickly and get back to normal. Most countries have acted as though all lives matter, but Sweden in this instance did not. Schools below the high school level were not closed, and it was not permitted that either students or teachers stay home, even though many wanted to. When deaths in Sweden exploded as a result of Sweden’s hoping to benefit from being the only country in the world with an unlocked-down economy, all of its neighboring countries closed the borders with Sweden, not wanting to import the pestilence so rampant there.
The Christian standpoint is to protect human life, heal the sick, prevent suffering. Sweden did not shoulder this responsibility as well as everyone else has. It is still uncertain that herd immunity to coronavirus is possible. Antibodies seem to disappear very quickly, and many have gotten the disease twice or more, possibly different strains. Many long-haulers continue to suffer serious symptom even months after apparent recovery. What has Sweden gained from its gamble which cost thousands of lives? There’s another verse in the Bible which says: Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.
Yes I agree with ‘prevent suffering’. That’s behind the whole Swedish strategy. Which in my world translates to protect the most vulnerable, which I’m sure is an universal virtue. Best described in Matthew 25:40-45
To let all children go to school. To reduce their anxiety and meet their friends. To give them hope for the future. What can be more important?
Most countries have not acted as if all lives matter – They have acted as if lives lost to Covid are a tragedy and lives lost as collateral (through deaths from despair, the relegation of all other conditions for treatment; additional deaths around the world from starvation and poverty etc.), are a secondary concern. ‘Zero Covid’ has become an almost religious crusade – with all the anti human and anti reason consequences that those particular follies usually entail.
There is no evidence to suggest people have been re-infected with Covid 19 – experiences which suggested such in South Korea were merely the detection of fragments of the original infection. Herd immunity – if not possible – would render the hunt for a vaccine to be an irrelevance. Increasingly immunologists are coming forward to remind us that immunity can be expressed through different channels – rather than just anti bodies. The otherwise arbitrary 20% infection ceiling in all epicentres that is reached according to anti body tests suggest that these deserve consideration as alternatives to explain this cut off point.
I still have to say – given the enormity of what is at stake – that Sweden does show we could manage this without committing to dystopia – isn’t there some moral authority to be gained from that?
“Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.”
Alexander Pope, An Essay on Criticism (1711). (So NOT in the Bible.)
That line is in the midst of Pope’s lines on bad criticism. He continues:
“Distrustful Sense with modest Caution speaks;
It still looks home, and short Excursions makes;” ” Poperies that many who express opinions on the subject of this article would do well to heed.
I’ve probably said this before commenting on other articles but the UKs Covid 19 panic/scandal/scamdemic whatever is nothing to do with Sweden’s
SARS-CoV2 outbreak. In the UK its a re-run of the 1970s attack by leftists on the rest of society. In the abscence of mines, steelworks and docks to use as weapons agains the public they are now using hospitals, schools and the benefits system. Like Wislon, Heath & Callaghan Boris is playing this for his own political survival with no though to the country at large. Whilst he avoids the Blob shaped elephant in the room a head of pressure is building. Once the public see what this playground spat between the vested interests does to the economy i expect we’ll need someone like Thatcher on steroids to sort it out. Where’s Steve McQueen when you need him!
For avoidance of doubt, I’ve rather taken to your dry SOH. More please, though watch the mods 🙂
This seems like an, and idyl of lost innocence, valentine to ancestors, and totally not germane to the crisis we’re in.
Public health & safety trumps individual rights. Scientific pragmatism must dominate policy. Work the stats, and do the social analysis after it’s over. Ideology should hold its fire.
Is there any limit to the trumping? For example, if it could be shown that some course of action would probably save an additional 100Lives, mean age 80, would that justify locking down almost all of the population for an additional several weeks?
I don’t think it would, but that’s why I ask.
Thank you 🙂
I know triage is routinely done where resources are scarce. And probably the Court would condone the sacrifice of the 100 octogenarians, given a sufficient extremity. But the ethical ideal in our culture is (Jesus) self-sacrifice. The rest is darwinian, amoral. Authentic Power would give the example, and strictly hue to the standard, “We’re all in this together”, No?