I was in Belarus in the summer of 2011 – a time of minor crisis, since the Belarusian ruble was going through a period of instability, and the day’s exchange rate flashed out from neon signs along with the weather forecast. Some of the people I met were pro-Lukashenko, others anti. Some had mixed feelings, considering that Belarus, for all its flaws, was stable and orderly compared to Russia or Ukraine.
A number of people pointed out that the country’s pro-Russian orientation had been accidentally strengthened when Belarus’ Western neighbours entered the EU. In the 1990s, the journey from Minsk to Vilnius was quicker than and just as straightforward as that to some of Belarus’ own provincial capitals, and weekend shopping trips to Lithuania were common. Inhabitants of Brest or Grodno could easily pop over the border to Poland, where many (for historical reasons) had relatives.
With the accession of Poland and Lithuania to the EU, those soft borders suddenly became very hard indeed and links to the rest of Eastern Europe were partly sundered. One frustrated young man told me that if the people of working age could cross the border and find work elsewhere, Lukashenko’s regime would collapse in weeks, since he would be “left alone with the pensioners who vote for him.”
Martin Johnson
3 years ago
A fair account of what is going on in Belarus. I spent most of June and early July in Minsk. There is a lot of opposition to Lukashenko but apart from a few noisy demonstrations, it is mostly muted. What I often heard was nothing more aggressive than “I love Belarus, I don’t like my government.”
Even Lukashenko’s opponents admitted he adopted the right policy on the coronavirus, he kept their economy running and saved many jobs. Restaurants, hotels and shops have all been open for business. There has been no “lockdown”. No media propaganda to cow people into certain forms of behaviour. Social distancing has been non-existent and around one in 50 people (my estimate) wear masks. Life is as close to normal and pleasant as possible. And the death rate is far lower than in most countries in Europe.
Having personally experienced government responses to the coronavirus in the USA (confused, ineffectual and over the top in the eastern states), Germany (totally over-regimented nonsense) and Belarus (calm, ordered and maintaining normality), I know which country I would choose to sit out this virus. I am currently no longer there but would return without hesitation.
I define lockdown as what the unfortunate people of Melbourne VIC are now enduring, which is basically house arrest and a suspension of normal life for an indefinite period. This is certainly not the case in Belarus, where life is as normal as anyone could expect. Please also note that Belarus imposes no restrictions on incoming travellers through Minsk airport. I was able to get in and out without a problem and stay quarantine-free. It currently allows a 30 day stay without a visa and up to 90 days if you are unable to travel to another country for virus-related reasons. Contrast that reasonable and generous policy for foreigners with Boris’ hopeless screwup on quarantining even UK citizens returning to the UK from Spain.
What an excellent summary of the mature way Belarus is handling The Great Plague, in complete contrast to the shriekers and bedwetters of the West.
There is always some virtue in Dictatorship, that’s why the post was invented by the Roman Republic. You have provided a most apposite example. Thank you.
Thanks for your comment. The official Belarusian policy is not even a good example of “dictatorship”. Lukashenko has not forced anyone to do anything (unlike the increasingly Maoist Victorian government). He simply said to his people that this virus is overhyped and therefore, “do what you like and live normally”. It has worked. The streets of Minsk are not clogged with dead bodies. It’s a delightful city and I would encourage everyone from the West to visit and enjoy the magnificent architecture, friendly people, good food and safe public areas there. Plus, apropos Lukashenko specifically and for all his faults, I wish there were more similarly enlightened “leaders” in the West.
No agreed – don’t think I was clear enough in my comment.
What i meant is that Belarus has been in effect locked down from outside because even usually not many people go there, and furthermore all countries surrounding it have shut their borders.
What is the infection rate in Belarus? Has being slightly more insular than most European nations benefited them?
Check the official figures. Belarus has a large number of cases (68k+), as a lot of testing was done but it recorded a low number of deaths (548) to date. A lot of attention has been paid to Sweden (a country I was not allowed to enter in May) but Belarus allowed anyone to enter and stay without restriction. That’s why I ended up going there. I also met several Chinese tourists in Minsk in early July. They told me this was the only European country they could travel to in order to shop for luxury goods.
Andrew Russell
3 years ago
Having lived in Eastern Europe, many must be aware of what “liberal democracy” (much favoured by those freedom-loving billionaires we all know and love in the West, of course) will bring: a tiny minority will get very rich; a small quasi-middle class will emerge, who will do the professional work and be reasonably well paid; a large amount of people will be in precarious, low paid employment, with no chance to advance; and around 10% of the population will be more or less permanently unemployed.
Asset-stripping transnational corporations will descend like locusts and huge tech companies will arrive to facilitate and maintain the all-important data-crunching flow of international capital. Lots of young people will leave the country to work in other Eastern European countries like Ukraine or one of the smaller ex-Soviet satellites.
This template has been applied to all of the other former “communist” countries, with the US and the EU doing their best to foment unrest in e.g. the Ukraine and Georgia, just as they did their best to exploit Russia in the years after communism collapsed. I wish I could make a less cynical prognosis, but the masters of the universe are consummate professionals when it comes to the cynical exploitation and despoliation of small and vulnerable states.
claus.l.rasmussen
3 years ago
Good article
I agree that he has probably survived by just being boring but I wonder how the economy fares? It is usually the most important thing for a ruler unless you want to rule with a NK style iron fist
I was in Belarus in the summer of 2011 – a time of minor crisis, since the Belarusian ruble was going through a period of instability, and the day’s exchange rate flashed out from neon signs along with the weather forecast. Some of the people I met were pro-Lukashenko, others anti. Some had mixed feelings, considering that Belarus, for all its flaws, was stable and orderly compared to Russia or Ukraine.
A number of people pointed out that the country’s pro-Russian orientation had been accidentally strengthened when Belarus’ Western neighbours entered the EU. In the 1990s, the journey from Minsk to Vilnius was quicker than and just as straightforward as that to some of Belarus’ own provincial capitals, and weekend shopping trips to Lithuania were common. Inhabitants of Brest or Grodno could easily pop over the border to Poland, where many (for historical reasons) had relatives.
With the accession of Poland and Lithuania to the EU, those soft borders suddenly became very hard indeed and links to the rest of Eastern Europe were partly sundered. One frustrated young man told me that if the people of working age could cross the border and find work elsewhere, Lukashenko’s regime would collapse in weeks, since he would be “left alone with the pensioners who vote for him.”
A fair account of what is going on in Belarus. I spent most of June and early July in Minsk. There is a lot of opposition to Lukashenko but apart from a few noisy demonstrations, it is mostly muted. What I often heard was nothing more aggressive than “I love Belarus, I don’t like my government.”
Even Lukashenko’s opponents admitted he adopted the right policy on the coronavirus, he kept their economy running and saved many jobs. Restaurants, hotels and shops have all been open for business. There has been no “lockdown”. No media propaganda to cow people into certain forms of behaviour. Social distancing has been non-existent and around one in 50 people (my estimate) wear masks. Life is as close to normal and pleasant as possible. And the death rate is far lower than in most countries in Europe.
Having personally experienced government responses to the coronavirus in the USA (confused, ineffectual and over the top in the eastern states), Germany (totally over-regimented nonsense) and Belarus (calm, ordered and maintaining normality), I know which country I would choose to sit out this virus. I am currently no longer there but would return without hesitation.
Belarus arguably had the ‘luxury’ of not having to lockdown. If all bordering neighbours shut their borders, you have a de facto lockdown.
Added to that, fewer than 400k tourists visit Belarus in a typical year (Poland c.20 million, Ukraine c.10 milion).
Interesting about Belarus though – would like to go
I define lockdown as what the unfortunate people of Melbourne VIC are now enduring, which is basically house arrest and a suspension of normal life for an indefinite period. This is certainly not the case in Belarus, where life is as normal as anyone could expect. Please also note that Belarus imposes no restrictions on incoming travellers through Minsk airport. I was able to get in and out without a problem and stay quarantine-free. It currently allows a 30 day stay without a visa and up to 90 days if you are unable to travel to another country for virus-related reasons. Contrast that reasonable and generous policy for foreigners with Boris’ hopeless screwup on quarantining even UK citizens returning to the UK from Spain.
What an excellent summary of the mature way Belarus is handling The Great Plague, in complete contrast to the shriekers and bedwetters of the West.
There is always some virtue in Dictatorship, that’s why the post was invented by the Roman Republic. You have provided a most apposite example. Thank you.
Thanks for your comment. The official Belarusian policy is not even a good example of “dictatorship”. Lukashenko has not forced anyone to do anything (unlike the increasingly Maoist Victorian government). He simply said to his people that this virus is overhyped and therefore, “do what you like and live normally”. It has worked. The streets of Minsk are not clogged with dead bodies. It’s a delightful city and I would encourage everyone from the West to visit and enjoy the magnificent architecture, friendly people, good food and safe public areas there. Plus, apropos Lukashenko specifically and for all his faults, I wish there were more similarly enlightened “leaders” in the West.
No agreed – don’t think I was clear enough in my comment.
What i meant is that Belarus has been in effect locked down from outside because even usually not many people go there, and furthermore all countries surrounding it have shut their borders.
What is the infection rate in Belarus? Has being slightly more insular than most European nations benefited them?
Check the official figures. Belarus has a large number of cases (68k+), as a lot of testing was done but it recorded a low number of deaths (548) to date. A lot of attention has been paid to Sweden (a country I was not allowed to enter in May) but Belarus allowed anyone to enter and stay without restriction. That’s why I ended up going there. I also met several Chinese tourists in Minsk in early July. They told me this was the only European country they could travel to in order to shop for luxury goods.
Having lived in Eastern Europe, many must be aware of what “liberal democracy” (much favoured by those freedom-loving billionaires we all know and love in the West, of course) will bring: a tiny minority will get very rich; a small quasi-middle class will emerge, who will do the professional work and be reasonably well paid; a large amount of people will be in precarious, low paid employment, with no chance to advance; and around 10% of the population will be more or less permanently unemployed.
Asset-stripping transnational corporations will descend like locusts and huge tech companies will arrive to facilitate and maintain the all-important data-crunching flow of international capital. Lots of young people will leave the country to work in other Eastern European countries like Ukraine or one of the smaller ex-Soviet satellites.
This template has been applied to all of the other former “communist” countries, with the US and the EU doing their best to foment unrest in e.g. the Ukraine and Georgia, just as they did their best to exploit Russia in the years after communism collapsed. I wish I could make a less cynical prognosis, but the masters of the universe are consummate professionals when it comes to the cynical exploitation and despoliation of small and vulnerable states.
Good article
I agree that he has probably survived by just being boring but I wonder how the economy fares? It is usually the most important thing for a ruler unless you want to rule with a NK style iron fist