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What if Trump loses the election? In claiming that he won't go quietly, the Democrats are playing right into the President's hands

Will he go rogue if Biden beats him? Credit: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Will he go rogue if Biden beats him? Credit: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images


May 6, 2020   6 mins

“There is not a chair to sit in. The beds and bedding are in a woeful pickle. This house has been a scene of the most scandalous drinking and disorder among the servants that I ever heard of. I would not have one of them for any consideration.”

Presidential transitions are often messy affairs. That was the first: John Adams is writing to his wife Abigail, in 1797, about the scenes two weeks after George Washington had left office. Washington had left his servants in charge, and they had little consideration for the new man or for the decorum of the new republic.

In 1801, when Adams handed over to Jefferson, things were even worse. Adams used his last months in office to appoint judges he thought would block the programme of his successor, and refused to attend the inauguration.

So what happens on November 4 this year, if Donald Trump has lost his bid for re-election, which most presidents manage pretty easily? How haywire will things be?

Let us begin with a fact that many Americans find uncomfortable, but which is broadly true: Donald Trump won the election of 2016 because the Democratic party put up a candidate who failed to enthuse the nation enough to muster the necessary votes to beat him. It really was as simple as that. And the Democrats — remarkably — could be about to repeat the feat in 2020. They have a job of work to do in getting Joe Biden to look and feel like the natural man for the job.

But rather than focus on addressing their failure of 2016, and the risk of repeating it, some in the party are going full Apocalypse Now: they’re claiming the President is going to delay the election or not accept the result. Joe Biden himself, at a fundraising event last month that was meant to be about his programme for office, managed to darken the mood. “Mark my words,” he said. “I think [Trump] is gonna try to kick back the election somehow, come up with some rationale why it can’t be held.”

But ask yourself this, Joe: would Donald Trump like the election to be fought amid wild talk of cancelled democracy, history ending, systems collapsing? Or would he prefer to dive into the weeds of post-coronavirus planning, health system reform, future pandemic readiness? It’s the former, obviously. This is his thing. He is comfortable here. Famously, in the White House when they want him to do something they say: “it’s never been done before!” Or: “the lawyers will never allow it!” I mean, come on: have we learned nothing?

So let us assume that the election will go ahead on 3 November. It is constitutionally mandated (and, as I have noted before, the lower the turnout the better for the Donald so there is really no reason at all that he would delay it even if he could). But what if he loses? Here is where some Democrats are getting really excited, and not in a good way. They think, or pretend to think, that he will refuse to leave.

There is a body of Trumpocalypse theorising out there. To begin at the scenic end: a book by that name, Trumpocalypse, co-written by Paul McGuire, who is described as “an eschatology professor and prophecy expert”. The front cover depicts the White House in flames and no wonder because the book is an “explosive exposé of the chilling truth about the fierce opposition to the Trump presidency, and why the globalist elite and Deep State will stop at nothing — assassination, military coup, staged economic collapse, or worse — to overthrow him”.

Laugh (or cry, or cower) if you must but there are others, of a more serious bent, who think it will all end in tears. Steve Bannon — Trump’s former campaign chief — suggested years ago to the author Michael Wolff that the end of Trump would not be pretty. Nixon went quietly in the end, mused Bannon, but with Trump it would be “ugly”. Michael Cohen, Trump’s former lawyer, was blunter: “there will never be a peaceful transition of power” he said, if the re-election bid went badly.

Mr Trump is his usual self in these matters. When Jerry Falwell Jr., one of his most prominent evangelical supporters, suggested Trump should get two years tacked on to his first term as “pay back” for the Mueller Russia investigation, Trump re-tweeted the idea. As if he were mulling it over.

But is he, really? Many of his supporters would suggest that the no-respect-for-elections shtick is a Democratic party thing. How often do those who hate the President talk of the fact that he lost the popular vote in 2016? That the Russians were involved, despite the lack of firm evidence that their involvement swayed the result? That the Donald is unfit for all manner of reasons, including mental incapacity? In other words, who is it, actually, that doesn’t accept the result of the 2016 poll?

 

And how long have they been up to this? A few days ago George W. Bush released a video message of solidarity and affection for all Americans in the time of coronavirus — a message that Trump hated and his opponents swooned over. How short are their memories? Or how selective? They hated Bush back in the day and they wondered, too, whether he would end freedom — or, in the words of one book, End America. Naomi Wolf — author of The End of America — said free America was under assault. There was little time to lose. There were parallels between George W’s rule and the 1930s. A fascist shift — whatever that might mean — was under way.

We know how this ended: with the Bush-Obama transition a model of decorum and George and Michelle Obama seen since, flirting like school kids.

I am not suggesting that Donald Trump will be a happy man on 4 November if he loses. Or that he will go quietly and gently. I doubt he would attend Biden’s inauguration. But there is simply no evidence that he is planning a revolution. He is mandated by law — a new law passed by Congress during Obama’s time in office — to prepare a transition team even while trying to win re-election. He is, it seems, doing it. Only days ago, according to the Associated Press, Russell Vought, acting director of the Office of Management and Budget, sent a directive asking federal agencies to select transition coordinators by the end of the week. It is in hand. Joe: relax.

It’s worth remembering that Trump might like fizzing drama and the Democrats might be tempted to fight in this territory but most Americans are not comfortable here. Not at all, and certainly not in this terrifying year of all years. So does that turn them off Trump, as the Democrats might hope, or does it frighten them to such an extent that they decide to placate a man portrayed as a danger to the world if he doesn’t get his way? Four more years: perhaps that’s a price worth paying for not crashing the whole show? I have no evidence that this is true, but knowing how little many Americans focus on politics, it seems to me by no means impossible that talk of ‘what Trump might do’ will play right into his hands.

To focus on the wildness, the oddness, the danger of Trump may be to commit a terrible tactical error. The former Obama speech writer Jon Favreau has a new job now as truth-teller to his party. He conducts focus groups in which potential Democratic voters are asked about the political scene. Favreau’s conclusion: “They really do see Trump as part of a broader political media culture that’s just out of control, silly, nasty, and not focused on what they care about.” Favreau says he comes away from his focus groups “thinking that Trump may not be as big of a challenge as the cynicism and distrust that a lot of these voters have towards the entire political system and the media”.

Hysterical talk of cancelled elections — terrifying talk of incipient totalitarianism — either leaves folks cold or, if I am right, could actually push them into the ‘placate Trump or something ghastly might happen’ camp. I think Mr Trump might know this too.

But if he does lose it does not follow that he actually blows up. We should be prepared, in other words, for anything, including anti-climax. Victor Davis Hanson, a Trump supporter, wrote a book in which he compared the president to Clint Eastwood’s police anti-hero Dirty Harry who, at the very end of the whole long violent saga of chasing a baddie “shoots the psychopathic Scorpio, ending both their careers, and walks off after throwing his inspector’s badge into the water”.

I doubt there will be an actual shooting. There may well be legal action to void the result in some states, particularly if it’s close. But the Dirty Harry metaphor is a good one. In the end Trump walks off. Back to the golf course. Back to New York. Back to the TV career.

The Democrats, if they are to win, need to focus on what happens in a sequel that they, finally, have the power to write.


Justin Webb presents the Americast podcast and Today on Radio Four. His Panorama documentary “Trump the Sequel”, is available now on  Iplayer

JustinOnWeb

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bmanders60
bmanders60
4 years ago

Don’t worry about how Trump will feel about losing the election. Fear how Democrats will feel about victory. They will reek a hot blood revenge on Republican politicians and all states who voted Republican. They will seek to destroy the Republican Party itself. They will open the boarders to laissez-faire immigration. They will cripple the economy, trade, and industry with policies that benefit China and Mexico. Trump will go quietly, but the revolution to eradicate white conservative patriotic middle class America and to rewrite the Constitution, minus Free Speech, will just be starting.

M Blanc
M Blanc
4 years ago
Reply to  bmanders60

Exactly. They’ve made it abundantly clear what they think of those of us who don’t buy into their globalist, multicultural utopia. They are going to be coming for us. We had better be formulating a strategy to protect us from the worst of what is coming.

uztazo
uztazo
4 years ago

“Donald Trump won the election of 2016 because the Democratic party put up a candidate who failed to enthuse the nation enough to muster the necessary votes to beat him. It really was as simple as that.”

Couldn’t be farther from the truth.

Trump to start with is not Republican nor is he conservative. At best he’s a populist. He won the election because the ordinary proletarians were sick to their teeth of being lectured by the virtual-signalling oikophobic globalist bourgeois-elites.

Tax-pinching obamacare, uncontrolled immigration, exponential unemployment, neglect of the rust belt and the middle east debacle made people frustrated.
Hillary Clinton was more of the same. The 30 odd thousand emails she swiftly deleted before the elections didn’t help her cause either. Joe like Hillary, alas, is more of the same.

The American people have lost trust in the Democrats. In the same way (most)Brits with the EU.

A former Governor of the Bank of England once said, ‘Trust arrives on foot but leaves in a Ferrari Cadillac’.

Trump will win in 2020. Both popular vote and electoral college. If I were Democrat, my biggest concern wouldn’t be 2020 rather 2024.

Lucy Smex
Lucy Smex
4 years ago
Reply to  uztazo

Hillary Clinton didn’t help herself by describing half the population as “a basket of deplorables.”
The Democrats have spent four years (arguably more than that) trying to overturn the last election. Many still declare that Trump is “not my President.” Their mask has come off to show how condescending, spiteful, hypocritical, vindictive, and ideologically extreme they really are. They have managed to drive many moderate Democrats from the party, and into Trump’s camp. It’s where the #Walk Away movement came from.
It’s not Trump winning the election that worries me, it’s him losing it to the Democrats who will use “any means necessary,” including voter fraud to win.

Robert Pay
Robert Pay
4 years ago

Hmmm…this is part of a two-pronged narrative. If he wins he will have cheated. If he loses will not go. Both elements are part of the “this man is not a normal, legitimate president” that started after the surprise of his election. It is becoming clear (though being ignored by the media because of the virus) that Russia Gate masked some very dubious maneuverings by anti-Trump partisans. The overall narrative is that if he does win it will be illegitimate and we are being softened up for a legal battle or battles over results.

Fraser Bailey
Fraser Bailey
4 years ago

Mea culpa. I assumed this article was a typical unit-Trump rant and posted a response accordingly. Having read it, I see that the article is surprisingly rational for someone with links to the BBC. My apologies.

Michael Dawson
Michael Dawson
4 years ago
Reply to  Fraser Bailey

Is your usual MO to respond first, then read? Looking at some of your posts, I do wonder.

Mark Corby
Mark Corby
4 years ago
Reply to  Michael Dawson

When I see the letters BBC in the author’s CV, I also seem to suffer from a massive surge in blood pressure and have to wait for it to subside.
This normally takes several minutes.

Mark Corby
Mark Corby
4 years ago
Reply to  Fraser Bailey

Surely you read the article first then comment?
In military terms you have executed a negligent discharge!
However for previous excellent conduct you are duly admonished.
Keep up the good work!

M Blanc
M Blanc
4 years ago
Reply to  Fraser Bailey

I thought the same thing when I saw the title and “Radio 4″ (my favorite radio station when I lived in the UK in the 1980s). Fortunately, I read the article. Trump Derangement Syndrome is more widespread than Covid-19, and the contagion will increase exponentially the closer we get to November. I expect President Trump to lose the election and to be gracious and civil to his successor on 20 January 2021.

Michael Dawson
Michael Dawson
4 years ago

It is a terrible shame that the US seems to produce such weak candidates for the presidency. The dominance of political dynasties, notably the Bushes and Clintons, resembles England in the 18th century. I was not an Obama fan, but he was at least a credible president. The other candidates for the past five elections, including the one coming up, have been or are exceptionally poor. Maybe these things go in phases. The US was lucky in its first few presidents, but the period from Andrew Jackson to Teddy Roosevelt, with few exceptions (Lincoln, Polk), was another period of general mediocrity, if not uselessness.

bmanders60
bmanders60
4 years ago
Reply to  Michael Dawson

Trump is loved and despised precisely because he is not weak. He does not vacillate. He is decisive. He is strong in his drive to do what he believes is right. If he were a waffling, indecisive Quisling, Democrats would like him.

Mark Corby
Mark Corby
4 years ago
Reply to  bmanders60

Precisely.

M Blanc
M Blanc
4 years ago
Reply to  bmanders60

He’s decisive when he tells us that he is “considering” doing something, such as ending birthright citizenship. He’s not so decisive when he doesn’t do it.

wood1919
wood1919
4 years ago
Reply to  M Blanc

Knowing that he probably could not actually end birthright citizenship, he uses such statements as starting points for negotiations to attain what is possible. That was so for the statement you’ve referred to, for the threat to use active duty military and for a number of others.

M Blanc
M Blanc
4 years ago
Reply to  wood1919

But what has he attained?

Judy Johnson
Judy Johnson
4 years ago
Reply to  bmanders60

But do voters not worry about his lack of intelligence (despite the fact he is clever)?

Mark Corby
Mark Corby
4 years ago
Reply to  Michael Dawson

Are you perchance including James Madison Esq in the list of the “lucky first few”?
He who lost the War of 1812, saw the destruction of Washington DC, the burning of the White House and the bankruptcy of the Nation?

wood1919
wood1919
4 years ago
Reply to  Mark Corby
Mark Corby
Mark Corby
4 years ago
Reply to  wood1919

Many thanks. If you haven’t read Andrew Lambert’s, ‘The Challenge ” you should. He is also a first rate Lecturer. Don’t miss an opportunity to hear him speak, he is both erudite and very entertaining.

wood1919
wood1919
4 years ago
Reply to  Michael Dawson

You lost me with “at least (Obama) was credible president.” Do you base that on Solyndra, Fast and Furious, weaponizing the IRS, “If they bring a knife, we’ll bring a gun,” The Arab Spring, drawing a line in the sand (that he then let anyone cross), “The cops acted stupidly,” “The 80’s called and they want their foreign policy back,” “Hillary Clinton is the best qualified person ever to run for president,” unknowingly being caught on a hot mic telling Russian President Medvedev, “This is my last election, I’ll have more flexibility when it’s over” and when it was, following up by abrogating our treaty to supply missiles to Poland to defend against a fourth invasion by Russia? Or is it his suspected more recent activities of participating in an attempted coup to overthrow the election of his successor? Like most on the left, you apparently have been duped by listening to the DNC’s propaganda machine, the MSM, now controlled by five major corporations who see America’s decline and China’s ascent as beneficial to their objective of destroying our middle class by suppressing wages and employing slave labor in the CCP’s sweatshops and gulags.

Rafael Aguilo
Rafael Aguilo
4 years ago

“Favreau says he comes away from his focus groups “thinking that Trump may not be as big of a challenge as the cynicism and distrust that a lot of these voters have towards the entire political system and the media”.” – Bingo! We have a winner. President Trump has delivered 100% on his principal promise: To shake the ESTABLISHMENT to its core.
After a make believe scenario of “diversity”and “inclusiveness”, the Democratic party voters ended up with a “more of the same ‘ol, same ‘ol” type of candidate they “said they didn’t want.” Not one female, non-white, minority, younger generation candidate made it to the end. November is going to be interesting. Can’t wait.

Anto Coates
Anto Coates
4 years ago

“Consideration” in the opening quote refers to a payment, as in I wouldn’t take these scoundrels for any money. Not to do with their inconsiderate behaviour

Adamsson
Adamsson
4 years ago

Will sleepy Joe make to inauguration day?

Owen Morgan
Owen Morgan
4 years ago

Firstly, let’s remember that the “popular vote” is meaningless in the United States, as, in fact, it is here in the United Kingdom.

Secondly, let’s look at who it is who tries to rig the vote at every election. Nearly always, getting on for ninety-nine per cent of the time, it is the Democrats. At the last election (2018), the Democrats managed to spin out elections in Florida, Georgia and California for weeks, in the latter managing to overturn previously declared results with the aid of “ballot-harvesting.”

Thirdly, the President (this one, or any other) has absolutely no authority to delay his or anyone else’s election.

I can guarantee that, if Trump is declared the winner on election night, next November, it will be the Democrats doing their usual trick of suddenly finding supposedly uncounted votes, to try to swing the result. They attempted much the same thing in 2016. OK: they actually used their Green Party sock-puppet, Jill Stein, to dispute the results in three states. Stein had no legitimate reason to be contesting those results, but the Greens happened to end up several million dollars richer, just for making the effort. All Stein succeeded in doing was exposing how corrupt the voting system was in Democrat strongholds, like Philadelphia and, especially, Detroit.

Owen Morgan
Owen Morgan
4 years ago

Firstly, let’s remember that the “popular vote” is meaningless in the United States, as, in fact, it is here in the United Kingdom.

Secondly, let’s look at who it is who tries to rig the vote at every election. Nearly always, getting on for ninety-nine per cent of the time, it is the Democrats. At the last election (2018), the Democrats managed to spin out elections in Florida, Georgia and California for weeks, in the latter managing to overturn previously declared results with the aid of “ballot-harvesting.”

Thirdly, the President (this one, or any other) has absolutely no authority to delay his or anyone else’s election.

I can guarantee that, if Trump is declared the winner on election night, next November, it will be the Democrats doing their usual trick of suddenly finding supposedly uncounted votes, to try to swing the result. They attempted much the same thing in 2016. OK: they actually used their Green Party sock-puppet, Jill Stein, to dispute the results in three states. Stein had no legitimate reason to be contesting those results, but the Greens happened to end up several million dollars richer, just for making the effort. All Stein succeeded in doing was exposing how corrupt the voting system was in Democrat strongholds, like Philadelphia and, especially, Detroit.

Owen Morgan
Owen Morgan
4 years ago

Please tell me that Tim Chavers is not in charge of your “vetting” process.

David Radford
David Radford
4 years ago

It’s good to see Justin out of his Radio 4 comfort zone, at the end of the barrel not controlling the trigger.
I think anybody who thinks the Democrats have wasted nearly all the time they had to reform for a 2020 victory are right.
Now they have a somnambulist candidate and a fragmented party that still rises to the bait every time Trump casts it.
They have little time left and should have picked an energetic young candidate offering new hope.

rrosalind898
rrosalind898
4 years ago

I wouldn’t be so so quick to scoff about Trumpocalypse, its author or eschatology itself.
Lots of strange things are going on in the world at the moment which leaves one wondering what’s next

Fraser Bailey
Fraser Bailey
4 years ago

More fanatical, anti-Trump propaganda. The latest Gallup poll has Trump at a 49% approval rate, up 6% in a two weeks. There is another poll-prediction formula based on the primary results going back to 1912 that gives him a 91 % chance of winning. Trump is clearly on the side of those who want the lockdown to end, and who are coming to see the evil and authoritarian nature of their governors.

Meanwhile, over on on planet creepy, sleepy, veepy Joe, the young leftists are turning away from Biden due to the sickening hypocrisy over the Tara Reade sexual assault claims, his war voting recored etc.

Really, this is appalling ‘journalism’ that belongs in the Guardian.