So far, there are a few takeaways from this pandemic.
a) Worldometer is unreliable. b) The West is scared to ask tough questions of the CCP c) The EU is marvellously hopeless d) Working from home is the future e) This current crop of journo’s ( Kuenssburg, Rigby, Peston et al are Bolsheviks
Where do we go from here?
Ian Black
4 years ago
‘hopefully in the not-too-distant future vaccines and treatments’…. ah, vaccines. Now there is a metric worth hearing about.
Ian Black
4 years ago
‘and hopefully in the not-too-distant future vaccines and treatments’. Ah… ‘Vaccines’: Now there is s subject worthy of some real metrics.
Juilan Bonmottier
4 years ago
Very interesting and thought provoking piece -thank you. I thought you hit upon it when you indicated we might need to rely upon judgment -by which my associations were a sort of combination of clear thinking, intuition and experience -the sort of sound judgment that allows one to make good decisions and act well. But you defer it seems to something you call ‘expert judgment’ which to my mind means more of the same -more data, more variants, more analysis -and more, I would say, confusion. Life, and its contingent difficulties, is rather like a game of chess -it can move off in a million different directions from one place, depending on the move selection -and from that move to another million different directions -its complexity cannot be captured by data. The omnipotent fantasy of the scientific expert is that all of the data can be gathered -we can know it all -or at least all of the bits that matter, and we can chart it and map it out. It’s an omnipotent fallacy though in all our current doubt, pain and suffering, we want to believe it all the more -the experts will find a solution!
In my view the mistake that most governments made when suddenly faced with this crisis was to fall rapidly into ‘basic assumption’ thinking -full on fight/ flight mode, where the worst decisions are usually made. The people had to run and hide; the government/ scientists and NHS had to be seen to fight the threat. Then we looked for ‘messiahs’ -the experts of course to lead us out of the wilderness. I base these ideas on the discoveries made by the psychoanalyst Wilfred Bion in his close analysis of ‘group working’ in the 1940’s -a highly insightful work, before its time, and still not appreciated by too many.
I am not sure that the thinking in the early days of realisation was really that of a proper ‘working’ group -that is a group sufficiently self contained and with enough presence of mind to identify the real problems in this crisis and set about thinking how to act as a consequence. Had this sort of thinking process been undertaken we might have arrived at the notion that the sound thing to do was to work out how best to maintain normality and ordinary life, in as many systems as possible, in the face of the difficulties presented by the virus. I believe better, more inventive and hopeful outcomes would have been possible with this approach.
The decision to close everything down will sadly prove a disaster that will haunt us for some time yet as any solutions now arrived at will echo the shortcomings of the earlier basic assumption model of fight/ flight, and, as your aticle alludes to, we are going to be caught up in a constant cycle of fight/ flight for some time yet. Additionally it presents another lost opportunity to respond in ways which would have better preserved what is most valuable in our human state.
Lindsay Gatward
4 years ago
We are treating this as zombies when it is actually flu. This experiment in social isolation and economic suspension is to facilitate the orderly treatment of the few who get seriosly ill so that fewer of those few succomb. We will probably come to believe we should have treated this the same way as the flu surges of recent times and not got into such a panic. The interlinked economic and social cost is likely to be epic. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs think markets will surge because of the trillions of free govenment money being spewed out as per recent market crashes and further pumping up the asset bubble…..hope they are correct and not just leading small investors into a trap as usual?
There’s some speculation that we may be seeing high number of deaths from Covid-19 because it comes after a mild flu season, meaning more vulnerable people are still alive than might have otherwise been:
Another reason we are seeing a high number of deaths from Covid-19 is because:
a. the test is flawed, deeply flawed so data is inaccurate b. mortality from heart attack and pneumonia has virtually disappeared because everyone it seems now dies from Covid19. c. autopsies are not being done so it is all blamed on Covid19 with know way of knowing if people actually die OF it, or WITH it, or even without it.
GIanni Pischedda
4 years ago
Interesting, but you are not qualified to talk about the subject, not surprising since you are writer not a data analyst/scientist, the only people qualified to talk sensibly about the subject. There is much more than metrics in analysing data in 2020 – you never mention big-data, machine learnin or AI. Google could have done a better job that the experts chosen by the government.
Be glad you are not in the US where there are 50 states in varying stages chaos, and a head of govt who behaves like the Tasmanian Devil. Everyone is afraid, and the options appear to be: 1. dying of COVID19 2. Dying of boredom/suicide/murder or 3. being destitute. Trying to wade through the tsunami of BS and misinformation in the news I was relieved to read this article. Science is trial and error. There is no magic formula. I was surprised to learn that influenza kills 20-60K in a season. Of course the difference here is it’s only been weeks, there is no “herd immunity” or vaccine. But I read environmentalist predicting a new virus / pandemic in the 90s. Whether wet labs or clearcutting, it’s here and will happen again. This is a wake up call. Epidemiology, virology, supply chain, etc and enquiring minds will find solutions. Meantime, wear a face mask, wash your hands, try Google Hangouts instead of Zoom, and enjoy working from home.
Problem:
experts are undemocratic
democracy is inexpert
So far, there are a few takeaways from this pandemic.
a) Worldometer is unreliable. b) The West is scared to ask tough questions of the CCP c) The EU is marvellously hopeless d) Working from home is the future e) This current crop of journo’s ( Kuenssburg, Rigby, Peston et al are Bolsheviks
Where do we go from here?
‘hopefully in the not-too-distant future vaccines and treatments’…. ah, vaccines. Now there is a metric worth hearing about.
‘and hopefully in the not-too-distant future vaccines and treatments’. Ah… ‘Vaccines’: Now there is s subject worthy of some real metrics.
Very interesting and thought provoking piece -thank you. I thought you hit upon it when you indicated we might need to rely upon judgment -by which my associations were a sort of combination of clear thinking, intuition and experience -the sort of sound judgment that allows one to make good decisions and act well. But you defer it seems to something you call ‘expert judgment’ which to my mind means more of the same -more data, more variants, more analysis -and more, I would say, confusion. Life, and its contingent difficulties, is rather like a game of chess -it can move off in a million different directions from one place, depending on the move selection -and from that move to another million different directions -its complexity cannot be captured by data. The omnipotent fantasy of the scientific expert is that all of the data can be gathered -we can know it all -or at least all of the bits that matter, and we can chart it and map it out. It’s an omnipotent fallacy though in all our current doubt, pain and suffering, we want to believe it all the more -the experts will find a solution!
In my view the mistake that most governments made when suddenly faced with this crisis was to fall rapidly into ‘basic assumption’ thinking -full on fight/ flight mode, where the worst decisions are usually made. The people had to run and hide; the government/ scientists and NHS had to be seen to fight the threat. Then we looked for ‘messiahs’ -the experts of course to lead us out of the wilderness. I base these ideas on the discoveries made by the psychoanalyst Wilfred Bion in his close analysis of ‘group working’ in the 1940’s -a highly insightful work, before its time, and still not appreciated by too many.
I am not sure that the thinking in the early days of realisation was really that of a proper ‘working’ group -that is a group sufficiently self contained and with enough presence of mind to identify the real problems in this crisis and set about thinking how to act as a consequence. Had this sort of thinking process been undertaken we might have arrived at the notion that the sound thing to do was to work out how best to maintain normality and ordinary life, in as many systems as possible, in the face of the difficulties presented by the virus. I believe better, more inventive and hopeful outcomes would have been possible with this approach.
The decision to close everything down will sadly prove a disaster that will haunt us for some time yet as any solutions now arrived at will echo the shortcomings of the earlier basic assumption model of fight/ flight, and, as your aticle alludes to, we are going to be caught up in a constant cycle of fight/ flight for some time yet. Additionally it presents another lost opportunity to respond in ways which would have better preserved what is most valuable in our human state.
We are treating this as zombies when it is actually flu. This experiment in social isolation and economic suspension is to facilitate the orderly treatment of the few who get seriosly ill so that fewer of those few succomb. We will probably come to believe we should have treated this the same way as the flu surges of recent times and not got into such a panic. The interlinked economic and social cost is likely to be epic. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs think markets will surge because of the trillions of free govenment money being spewed out as per recent market crashes and further pumping up the asset bubble…..hope they are correct and not just leading small investors into a trap as usual?
There’s some speculation that we may be seeing high number of deaths from Covid-19 because it comes after a mild flu season, meaning more vulnerable people are still alive than might have otherwise been:
https://hectordrummond.com/…
I don’t know if anyone has done a country comparison of Covid-19 deaths compared to previous flu season to see whether this hypothesis has merit.
Another reason we are seeing a high number of deaths from Covid-19 is because:
a. the test is flawed, deeply flawed so data is inaccurate
b. mortality from heart attack and pneumonia has virtually disappeared because everyone it seems now dies from Covid19.
c. autopsies are not being done so it is all blamed on Covid19 with know way of knowing if people actually die OF it, or WITH it, or even without it.
Interesting, but you are not qualified to talk about the subject, not surprising since you are writer not a data analyst/scientist, the only people qualified to talk sensibly about the subject. There is much more than metrics in analysing data in 2020 – you never mention big-data, machine learnin or AI. Google could have done a better job that the experts chosen by the government.
More ignorance than expertise on this issue.
https://uncoverdc.com/2020/…
Be glad you are not in the US where there are 50 states in varying stages chaos, and a head of govt who behaves like the Tasmanian Devil. Everyone is afraid, and the options appear to be: 1. dying of COVID19 2. Dying of boredom/suicide/murder or 3. being destitute. Trying to wade through the tsunami of BS and misinformation in the news I was relieved to read this article. Science is trial and error. There is no magic formula. I was surprised to learn that influenza kills 20-60K in a season. Of course the difference here is it’s only been weeks, there is no “herd immunity” or vaccine. But I read environmentalist predicting a new virus / pandemic in the 90s. Whether wet labs or clearcutting, it’s here and will happen again. This is a wake up call. Epidemiology, virology, supply chain, etc and enquiring minds will find solutions. Meantime, wear a face mask, wash your hands, try Google Hangouts instead of Zoom, and enjoy working from home.