Leaders in authoritarian states seek to make up for citizens’ lack of ability to choose or reject them by demonstrating a passionate care for their wellbeing, through ensuring the stability of their country — stressing that their continued rule is essential to ensure it. Xi Jinping is president for life of the world’s most populous state. Recep Taip Erdogan has overseen constitutional changes to the power and length of service of the president, which could keep him in power in Turkey till 2028, when he will be 74 (though, unlike Xi, he will — for the present at least — have to submit himself to re-election).
Donald Trump is now in a re-election year; if he loses, as seems likely, to Joe Biden, it’s a fair bet he’ll furiously tweet that it’s a fix. But the US is not an authoritarian state, and legal process, civil society and journalism are likely to win out.
They are not in Russia. Earlier this year, the country’s highest court approved constitutional changes in what the New York Times’s Andrew Higgins described as a “highly-choreographed display of political theatre” — allowing Vladimir Putin to stay on as President till 2036, when he will be 83.
In a speech, Putin argued that “stability and calm development of the country” was presently essential; and that the absence of “stable political parties” meant a strong presidency was also required. He has posed — and the main media channels support the pose — as one who had been surprised by the decision of his party, United Russia, to propose the new term limits and have these passed by the Duma. Like Shakespeare’s Richard III, when pressed to take the crown, he protests he is “not fit for state and majesty” but in the end, will summon up “patience to endure the load”.
The constitutional change is remarkable for the cynicism in the assumption that fixing the constitution for the sake of Putin and his circle would pass without much opposition. According to the political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann, quoted in The Economist, the enriched Kremlin elite were “feeling nervous about their own future” if he were to leave office. The fragile shoots of democratic rule and the already-stunted growth of civil society have been stamped on hard — if not, hopefully, obliterated. Does it show that Russia cannot escape its authoritarian past? That depends to a large extent on the people: and history has not been kind to them as proactive agents of democracy, in the eyes of both foreign and Russian observers.
The historian Richard Pipes produced histories of the Russian revolution which pointed to popular support for despotism — that the Russian people preferred, or at least were used to, autocracy: “the Bolsheviks had no choice but to govern autocratically… (which) meant ruling the people in a manner to which they had been accustomed”. Observers through the ages have tended to Pipes’s view: the French Marquis de Custine, who travelled to Russia as a hopeful fan in the late 1830s, turned into a savage critic, calling the country, in his Letters from Russia (1843) “a prison without leisure”. He quotes the then Tsar, Nicholas I, as telling him that despotism “is the essence of my government, but it accords with the genius of the nation”.
In a recent book, Putin’s World, Angela Stent wrote that Putin’s “new Russian Idea… resembles the old Russian Idea… western concepts of individualism are alien to the more holistic, organic, communal Russian values.” Polls show that Putin’s popularity has declined in the past few years, but not that of the old Soviet Union: a poll by Pew last October showed over 60% regretted its passing, with its image of national strength and social equality. The sentiment is highest among the elderly: but 50% of the 18-34-year-olds agree, though few would have more than a hazy memory of it.
Soviet rule was not tsarist rule: the communists may have copied and intensified Tsarist governance, but ruled differently, much more complete in their oppression, aided by technology not available to the tsars. Yet rule of both, and now, has been ever at the service of the concept of a Russian mission, of a Russian “soul”, as if there were an essence of Russian-ness which, at its core, is unchanging. What has not changed is that it is ever, with only brief exceptions, at the service of an autocrat. Thus much history, in Tsarist, Soviet and post-Soviet Russia, is not so much about a fact-based narrative that may be debated and corrected, but about a mythic realm called “the past” — as the rulers, and often a large part of the people, wish it to be experienced.
In 2013, when a new set of history textbooks was commissioned, the then Culture Minister, Vladimir Medinsky, argued that “in historical mythology [facts] do not mean anything at all… everything begins not with facts but with interpretations… if you like your motherland, your people, your history, what you’ll be writing will always be positive.” Christopher Coker, who quotes Medinsky, writes (in The Rise of the Civilizational State) that “myths are usually immune to factual rebuttal…they tend to operate at a deeper level of consciousness in their claim to communicate a more immediate, metaphysical truth”. For many in Russia today, a deeper level of consciousness is picturing the Stalinist era as one in which Russia was greater and its society better.
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SubscribeI cant see trump losing to Biden, if anything i think it’ll be an easier win for him then against Hillary. Biden can barely string a sentence together, get those 2 in the debates and Trump is going to eat him alive. The Democrats have chosen the wrong candidate yet again and will spend the next 5 years calling everyone racist and blaming Russians without realizing their own mistakes
Surely tests also record “false positives”.
If the test has shown no false positives, then if you are tested and it shows you have antibodies (ie you have had it before or been born with them somehow) then you have antibodies. And you have antibodies then you have as much chance of getting the disease as being vaccinated against it.
And if vaccination is the best protection we have, then you are as clear as we can make it.
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This is certainly an interesting article. It may seem’ likely’ to John Lloyd that Donald Trump will lose the presidential election. At the time this piece was posted every single bookmaker on oddschecker.com (there are more than 20) has Donald Trump as favourite for the contest. Assuming for the sake of simplicity that there are only two relevant runners, in broad terms, bookmakers price a Trump win at 55% and a Biden victory at 45%.
This is a fascinating, if somewhat depressing, analysis. However, did the great Richard Pipes really believe that Russia was fated to repeat the past? In “Russia under the Bolshevik Regime” he seemed to suggest something quite different, which should inspire people anywhere living under any authoritarian or totalitarian regime: “As experience has confirmed time and again, man is not an inanimate object but a creature with his own aspirations and will _ not a mechanical but a biological entity. Even if subjected to the fiercest dressage, he cannot pass on the lessons he has learned to his children, who come into this world ever fresh, asking questions that are supposed to have been settled once and for all.”