Agree with most of this. Provided the total shutdown is not more than 3 or 4 months – any longer is almost unthinkable – I also expect the economy to recover somewhat quicker than most people seem to expect – albeit with a measure of inflation higher than we haave seen for the last decade or so.
Alison Houston
4 years ago
Stupid boy!
Jill Simmonds
4 years ago
Pick up where we left off! I hope not …
Joe Smith
4 years ago
What figure does Cobra use to define mass mortality? We typically have 10-30k deaths per winter from flu, and government doesn’t enforce any social distancing measures. Neither does it provide enough resources so that the NHS isn’t annually overwhelmed.
If somewhere around 200,000 flu deaths per decade isn’t mass mortality then what is? Just admit it, every year we consider thousands of people to be expendable so that life can go on as normal.
In 1968 the ‘Hong Kong flu’ killed a million globally, and 80,000 in the UK.
We didn’t shut the country down. The blip in our social and financial history is forgotten now, as it was small.
D Glover
4 years ago
That’s fine if we get through with no disruption of the food supply. In 1348 all food was local; now half our food is imported.
If a fight starts over the last tin of beans on the supermarket shelf; then rioting; then blood on the streets.
There’s no snapping back to normality then, because we will have exposed the deep divisions in our society. They are only hidden by permanent plenty.
Jordan Flower
4 years ago
Most things will continue on the trajectory they were on, only delayed by this period of isolation. But i’m not sure globalism will. Although you can make the argument that it had already started to fray with the rise of nationalist populism and euroskepticism. If anything, this pandemic will have increased those trajectories immensely, by highlighting the importance of national sovereignty, borders, and rebuilding reliance on local/domestic supply chains. The last few years hasn’t been great for unfettered progressivism, and covid19 is just adding punctuation.
Good comment. Notice the first signs of trouble within the EU and national borders were all closed. When Leftists themselves are faced with direct consequences they become nationalists instantly. LOL
Most eurosceptics were internationalists who disagreed with the protectionist policies of the EU
Tony Edwards
4 years ago
Three grave robbers in a French city gave their secret of survival to avoid execution at the time of the Black death, eating a concoction of Garlic vinegar and wormwood…Garlic is selling very well at present! Read Michael Greger. nutrition.org for a convincing argument that it is abusive animal husbandry at the route of these viral outbreaks.
perrywidhalm
4 years ago
Good essay. Thanks! Of course things will return to “normal” when this pandemic passes … civilization is based on organized warfare, living amongst strangers, dependency, lack of essential skills, the pyramid of power and an occasional genocide here and there. It’s fascinating when most people say the word “civilization” they mean all that is good in the world and overlook all the dark consequences of agricultural-industrial urban dwelling.
Blimey, it must be great fun living in your house. I wonder what you’d say if ‘civilization’ broke down – there was no food, riots, civil war? Maybe you’d be more realistic and thankful. I hope I never find out, though.
LOL Well … it’s breaking down right before your eyes. The SARS COVID-19 cold virus is upending the system. As for me and my family, we’re ranchers and have plenty of skills, experience, knowledge, productive land and livestock to last 10 years. How about you?
I was born poor to lower working class and the grandchild of immigrant sharecroppers. We own no land whatsoever. I am middle aged with heart disease and I am taking care of my 85 year old mother who has open pressure wounds on her back. We will die when “the system” supposedly upends. Enjoy your ranch.
BTW, guess when and from where my immigrant grandparents got here. Take a stab at it before you unleash any anti-chain-migration invective. Let’s see how close you get.
thomasbcarver
4 years ago
I’m not sure why treasurer William Edington should be praised for price fixing; this was normal procedure in mediaeval times of crisis and it always made things much worse. More recently it was the preferred method of US President Roosevelt’s New Deal which then prolonged the depression. The normal rule of supply and demand is the best response to a crisis – including the present one.
Agree with most of this. Provided the total shutdown is not more than 3 or 4 months – any longer is almost unthinkable – I also expect the economy to recover somewhat quicker than most people seem to expect – albeit with a measure of inflation higher than we haave seen for the last decade or so.
Stupid boy!
Pick up where we left off! I hope not …
What figure does Cobra use to define mass mortality? We typically have 10-30k deaths per winter from flu, and government doesn’t enforce any social distancing measures. Neither does it provide enough resources so that the NHS isn’t annually overwhelmed.
If somewhere around 200,000 flu deaths per decade isn’t mass mortality then what is? Just admit it, every year we consider thousands of people to be expendable so that life can go on as normal.
In 1968 the ‘Hong Kong flu’ killed a million globally, and 80,000 in the UK.
We didn’t shut the country down. The blip in our social and financial history is forgotten now, as it was small.
That’s fine if we get through with no disruption of the food supply. In 1348 all food was local; now half our food is imported.
If a fight starts over the last tin of beans on the supermarket shelf; then rioting; then blood on the streets.
There’s no snapping back to normality then, because we will have exposed the deep divisions in our society. They are only hidden by permanent plenty.
Most things will continue on the trajectory they were on, only delayed by this period of isolation. But i’m not sure globalism will. Although you can make the argument that it had already started to fray with the rise of nationalist populism and euroskepticism. If anything, this pandemic will have increased those trajectories immensely, by highlighting the importance of national sovereignty, borders, and rebuilding reliance on local/domestic supply chains. The last few years hasn’t been great for unfettered progressivism, and covid19 is just adding punctuation.
Good comment. Notice the first signs of trouble within the EU and national borders were all closed. When Leftists themselves are faced with direct consequences they become nationalists instantly. LOL
Most eurosceptics were internationalists who disagreed with the protectionist policies of the EU
Three grave robbers in a French city gave their secret of survival to avoid execution at the time of the Black death, eating a concoction of Garlic vinegar and wormwood…Garlic is selling very well at present! Read Michael Greger. nutrition.org for a convincing argument that it is abusive animal husbandry at the route of these viral outbreaks.
Good essay. Thanks! Of course things will return to “normal” when this pandemic passes … civilization is based on organized warfare, living amongst strangers, dependency, lack of essential skills, the pyramid of power and an occasional genocide here and there. It’s fascinating when most people say the word “civilization” they mean all that is good in the world and overlook all the dark consequences of agricultural-industrial urban dwelling.
Blimey, it must be great fun living in your house. I wonder what you’d say if ‘civilization’ broke down – there was no food, riots, civil war? Maybe you’d be more realistic and thankful. I hope I never find out, though.
LOL Well … it’s breaking down right before your eyes. The SARS COVID-19 cold virus is upending the system. As for me and my family, we’re ranchers and have plenty of skills, experience, knowledge, productive land and livestock to last 10 years. How about you?
“How about you?”
I was born poor to lower working class and the grandchild of immigrant sharecroppers. We own no land whatsoever. I am middle aged with heart disease and I am taking care of my 85 year old mother who has open pressure wounds on her back. We will die when “the system” supposedly upends. Enjoy your ranch.
BTW, guess when and from where my immigrant grandparents got here. Take a stab at it before you unleash any anti-chain-migration invective. Let’s see how close you get.
I’m not sure why treasurer William Edington should be praised for price fixing; this was normal procedure in mediaeval times of crisis and it always made things much worse. More recently it was the preferred method of US President Roosevelt’s New Deal which then prolonged the depression. The normal rule of supply and demand is the best response to a crisis – including the present one.