Although trouble in Iraq has been brewing for months, it has taken the assassination of the Iranian kingpin Qassim Soleimani to catapult the country back into the news. As Iran decides how to retaliate for the killing of its satrap, at the same time that the threat from a regrouping ISIS grows, Iraq looks likely to remain in the headlines in the year ahead.
There are odd similarities with the situation exactly a century ago. Iraq was under British military occupation, but the British government, just like the Americans more recently, wanted to withdraw its troops. An outside force — then it was Arab nationalists based in Syria — was plotting violence that it hoped might quicken Britain’s exit.
Amid rising doubts about the wisdom of his approach, Arnold Wilson, Britain’s ebullient proconsul in the country, claimed there was nothing to see here. “The Shaikhs and tribes of the outlying districts are everywhere settling down,” he insisted to a former colleague in a new year letter. “The political atmosphere in Basrah is good, in Baghdad fair and improving, and I think even in Mosul things are getting better.” This analysis was at best deluded, at worst deliberately deceitful: a revolt would plunge Iraq into chaos later that year, and the 1920s would be a decade of instability in the Middle East, as a crisis in one country rapidly spread across freshly-drawn frontiers that were no more than lines in the sand.
The revolt that convulsed Iraq in 1920 was a taster of the consequences of three irreconcilable promises the British had made during the First World War, which became apparent over the next ten years. Under pressure in 1915 they had sent Mecca’s ruler Sharif Hussein a weasel-worded letter that recognised his claim to an empire encompassing Iraq and Syria if he rose up against the Turks. In 1916, in the Sykes-Picot agreement, they then secretly pledged a northerly wedge of this same territory to the French, to patch up the entente cordiale.
Then in the Balfour Declaration in 1917 publicly committed themselves to a Jewish national home in Palestine — land that Hussein believed they had already acknowledged as his. During the next decade the British contorted themselves to try to square these promises with each other. The widespread anti-western sentiment, the Arab-Jewish conflict, and Islamism we see in today’s Middle East are all the result.
The most immediate problem arose from the clash between the promises to Hussein and the French. If you have seen Lawrence of Arabia you will recall that the end of the war left Lawrence’s ally, Sharif Hussein’s son Feisal, in control of Damascus, the city that, defended by Saladin, had defied the crusaders eight centuries earlier. Now the French, citing their 1916 deal with the British, felt it was theirs.
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