The story of the 2019 general election was how Labour’s “Red Wall” crumbled. The wall was the brainchild of James Kanagasooriam, used to describe “three contiguous groups of post-industrial, Leave-leaning seats — 63 in total — which, until today, had not had a Conservative MP in decades, but probably should have, given their demography”. These seats had remained Labour-voting for deep historical and cultural reasons but a mix of Brexit, distrust of Corbyn, and a frustration with gridlocked politics meant that 33 of them fell to the Conservatives.
The Tory wave began as soon as Blyth Valley turned blue, gathering pace through the West Midlands with both West Bromwich seats going Tory for the first time, and then perhaps most symbolically it engulfed Tony Blair’s old constituency of Sedgefield.
But if this was the story of 2019, there is a risk for the Conservatives that 2024 will be very different: if Brexit is done, and Labour select a more capable leader, a more volatile electorate might swing back to Labour after 14 years of Conservative leadership. How can the new candidates avoid this fate?
Firstly, Get. Brexit. Done. New MPs won these Red Wall seats on the simple pledge to deliver Brexit. The fate of MPs in the previous Parliament should be a reminder that very few politicians are bigger than their party — even the ones who the media like to talk up. If new MPs get cold feet and decide to oppose the Government on any Brexit legislation, the voters will know about it, and they will find themselves in the illustrious company of Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve and David Gauke.
Secondly, spurn the trappings of Westminster and spend time in your constituency. This is important for two reasons. Firstly, MPs need a local profile. From my experience campaigning, when presented with the name of the Conservative candidate voters were much more likely to ask “is that Boris’s man?” than actually know who the candidate was. Building up name recognition will make your vote slightly stickier and help boost your incumbency bonus.
Similarly, spending more time in your consistency will help you keep track of the key issues in the constituency. Brexit seems to be the all-encompassing issue of our time, but let’s not forget how the NHS surged up the agenda during the election. Social care, transport infrastructure, skills and reviving depressed high streets will also be important, local, battlegrounds over the course of the next parliament.
With more cash floating around nowadays — for example, Johnson promising £100bn to keep the Red Wall blue – MPs need to keep their ears close to the ground to identify opportunities to push for more money for their areas. Even more important, they need to let the voters know that lending their vote to the Conservatives is paying off.
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