This is not the first intimation the world has had of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s political mortality — nor an isolated indication of the uncertainty that her sudden departure would leave behind.
That skiing accident, in 2014, when she broke her pelvis and was forced to slow down for a few weeks, was perhaps the earliest warning of her potential frailty. It also came at the worst possible time, arguably muffling Germany’s voice as the crisis in Ukraine was brewing.
Then there was the unusual difficulty the super-seasoned negotiator had in forming Germany’s current coalition after the last, 2017, election. Followed by those very public shaking fits — now apparently stabilised — which raised questions about whether her health would allow her to serve out her current, fourth, term. But the latest political developments in Germany could be the ones that really threaten her current retirement plans (bowing out gracefully at the next scheduled election in 2021).
These threats have nothing whatsoever to do with her own party, the Christian Democratic Union, or with her own personal authority — directly, at least. They concern an unexpected turn of events with her Social-Democrat coalition partner, the SPD.
Under pressure since its lacklustre showing at the last election, and in the European and several local elections since, the SPD has just elected its second leader in as many years; members have shunned the favoured contenders, and choosing a left-wing duo of Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken instead.
If this only represented a sharp change of direction for the party, that would be one thing. But one of the defeated favourites was Deputy Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, who is also Finance minister in Merkel’s government. The vote amounted to an expression of no confidence in him personally, and in the SPD’s participation in the coalition.
Now, it is true that there are a couple of factors that may help Merkel fight another day. The first is that any co-leadership has a tendency to be less stable than the conventional kind. So she might just be able to wait it out — something she is pretty good at. (Meanwhile, the relatively new CDU leader, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, has insisted that her party stand by the coalition.) The second is that, because of its poor performance in 2017, the SPD is more of a junior partner than it was in either of Merkel’s previous two “grand coalition” governments — and it has not improved its electoral showings since.
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