Credit: ISABEL INFANTES/AFP via Getty Images
Britain is now on course for the most consequential election in its postwar history. The fate of Brexit, a second referendum, Boris Johnson’s embryonic premiership and Jeremy Corbyn’s radical Labour project — they all hang in the balance. The ballot on Thursday December 12 will ultimately define each of these political projects.
It will be the country’s 22nd general election since 1945. And it’s the fifth nationwide election to be held in the past four years — something which reflects not only the record rate of volatility in British politics, but the extent to which the ‘Europe question’ has pushed one of the world’s most stable two-party systems into a state of almost continual flux.
For Prime Minister Johnson, the election will determine whether his premiership ends as a brief footnote, or full chapter, in the history of British politics. The campaign should throw light on whether ‘Johnson-ism’ really exists; whether a small but intriguing collection of ‘one-nation’ policies can find their full expression as a coherent body of thought.
Could these ideas make a meaningful contribution to a conservative philosophy that for much of the past quarter-century has appeared timid, lost and devoid of serious thought? Or will they, in the shadow of defeat, be quickly forgotten?
His party’s future hangs in the balance, too. If the Conservative party can embrace a realignment of its electorate, then it stands a chance of not being cast into opposition. What started as a home for elites, before turning to more liberal middle-class professionals, the party is now having to speak ever more loudly to blue-collar Britain and social conservatives. The logic of this election demands that the Conservative Party develop a new language in order to connect with groups that have felt left behind and left out by the relentless onward march of social liberalism. The coming weeks will reveal whether Conservatives are willing to fundamentally re-orientate themselves to find success.
For the Leader of the Opposition, the election will ultimately decide the fate of his more radical and quixotic left-wing project. Either Corbynism will be consigned to history as a curious, disruptive but ultimately ephemeral detour in the history of the Labour movement — as dictated by the unwritten law that mainstream parties must be punished for ideological radicalism — or it will, instead, morph into a genuinely transformative government that paves the way for a fundamental and radical restructuring of Britain’s economy and society. The former leaves room for a rebooted challenge from moderate social democrats; the latter will shut them out for a generation.
As for Labour itself, this ballot will determine whether the party that was founded to represent an alienated working-class continues to move away from these people and increasingly toward middle-class graduates, the capital and university towns. Inevitably, the few remaining ambiguous politicians will be pushed into adopting unambiguous positions on Brexit. The volume on their support for Leave or Remain, a second referendum or not, will have to be turned up. Already, Jeremy Corbyn is underlining his support for a second referendum. But what this will do to latent tensions in the party’s political geography, between the winners and losers, remains to be seen. Come December, it could be tearing them apart.
For those advocates of a second referendum, meanwhile, the next election will clarify the future of their proposal — whether it remains rooted in reality or, instead, drifts further and perhaps finally into the realm of fantasy. For them, an election loss will force a campaign to ‘remain’ to evolve into a longer-term and far harder campaign to ‘re-join’. An election victory, on the other hand, will provide a rare opportunity to remedy the failures that led to the defeat of 2016. What does victory look like? Anything other than a strong Labour majority or Labour-led coalition will, almost certainly, bring the lingering conversation about a second ballot on EU membership to a close.
Lastly, for the country’s increasingly fragile party system this is an election that will determine whether it remains gridlocked in the world of multi-party politics or returns to its natural state of two-party dominance. Fragmentation and resurgent populism have surged to the surface of our politics over the past three years; this election should tell us whether this is a fleeting phenomenon or new reality.
Below the surface, nearly half of all voters have, since 2010, been switching their allegiance from one party to another; December 12 could see this underlying church reach new heights, or provide a sign that voters are beginning to settle into their new, albeit weaker, attachments. And it should also signal whether our new divides over Brexit really are replacing the traditional idea of ‘Left versus Right’ to the extent that some claim. The 2017 election provided good reason to be sceptical of those who argue that ‘everything is now about Brexit’. This one may yet deliver further surprises for exactly the same reason.
Overall, this is an election that has been called to resolve the Brexit crisis. We are returning to the people because of the failure of parliament to successfully navigate through this crisis. It is, for this reason, an election that offers something for everybody — Remainers and Leavers, liberals and conservatives. As Richard Nixon said: “There’s nothing wrong with this country which a good election can’t fix!” Let’s hope it’s fifth time lucky.
Matthew Goodwin is Professor of Politics at the University of Kent. His new book, Values, Voice and Virtue: The New British Politics, is out on March 30.
GoodwinMJ 
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SubscribeWhat’s so disheartening about his whole thing is the fact that, no matter how bad it gets, the left simply will not learn. Of course the homeless are going to go where it’s easiest for them. If you don’t prosecute shoplifters because you have some weird idea they deserve what the rob on the grounds that the people they steal from are wealthier than they are, then of course they’ll steal. And nothing that happens seems to shake them out of their stupidity.
The woke religion seems to view “shoplifting” as a form of reparations. Back to the East Coast, NYC actress and politician Cynthia Nixon tweeted how outrageous it is that major US drug stores, vital to the communities they serve–are closing multiple stores and locking up high value items that are frequently stolen–for example, razor blades, nappies, detergent. Kit should be free!
The woke simply have no understanding how the world works: people who see rampant theft know they are being played for being law-abiding, and they are in real danger in an environment of complete and utter lawlessness. And of course daily life is much more inconvenient with things locked up, stores closing, etc. and the price of goods goes up for all–well, all who pay for the goods. No such thing as a free lunch!
This is a bit like those who glorified graffiti in the 70s, when every subway car was covered in graffiti. The woke, before that term existed, celebrated this “street art” and “artists,” while normal people were horrified, terrorized. This is absolutely consistent with their worship of COWs, Citizens of Wakanda, who will lead the woke to the promised land.
Sickening!
Funny story, in middle and rural America, we have not seen a massive crime wave. Our police departments just do the same job they have always done. We know police will not always be there and there are times when they fail or abuse their authority. They are not perfect but they keep chaos at bay and allow society to function.
“You can be mad but I guess I don’t personally view my car as an extension of myself and I’ve never felt violated any of the 15 or so times my car was broken in to.”
“Once a guy accidentally left a cool knife in my car so if it keeps happening you might get a little treat.”
–SETH ROGEN
This is actor and LA resident Seth Rogen’s view on crime. He also said “It’s called living in a big city.”
The extreme left–99.9% of Hollywood, and huge media influencers–is simply unconnected to the reality of daily life in a big city. So my car is broken into for the 16th time–have my PA deal with it, call the insurance company, maybe buy a new car. And Wow…., it’s like so, cool, dude, that some robber dude left a really cool knife in the car…..”
The good news is that this serious, violent crime is starting to hit home in the wealthy neighborhoods. One half or a black power couple was killed in her home by an intruder with an automatic rifle (he went on to commit more crimes, but was stopped when he shot himself in the foot), and a home in a very upscale neighborhood–Pacific Pallisades–suffered a home invason robbery where the guests were held and robbed at gunpoint inside the home during the party.
In San Francisco, a restaurant refused to serve police officers in uniforms because part of their required kit is a gun. The restaurant apparently needed a “safe space,” gun-free. Perhaps they will re-think this if armed intruders come for them. Would they welcome armed police then?
The US is completely out of control–like a dystopian Hollywood film. In NYC during the Golden Age of Crack (late 80s, early 90s), the NYPD institued a policy called “Broken Windows,” which essentially meant zero tolerance for little things. It mostly worked. The radical left has now instituted a policy that might be called “Break the Windows, It’s OK,” and the world can see the results. Burn, baby, burn!
People who call for “law and order,” people who want to be safe in their homes, have their cars unmolested in the street, free to live their lives, are not necessarily “hard right,” nazis, gun-toting vigilantes, or freelance lunatics, they are mostly people of good will who don’t recognize their country any more.
This article could have looped back to De Blasio’s utterly dysfunctional New York City, where an Italian Ph.d. student at Columbia–once one of the world’s premier unis–was stabbed to death and another student wounded by the same criminal. This follows the stabbing death of Tessa Majors in essentially the same place in Dec. 2019.
This must stop. Civil War soon!
Seth Rogan? The guy who gave us Santa Inc?
If any question of listening to actors giving everyone else lessons on life was remaining, just view the Alec Baldwin incident. Not his fault, someone else’s responsibility, he didn’t need to check the gun first, he was told it was cold, so pointing it at someone is fine.
And of course Seth Rogan doesn’t feel that much attachment to his car. He’ll get another one. Probably has more than one anyway. All privileges that 90% of the population do not have.
Yet for some reason, those with the least skin in the game, as it were, are leading the public debate on these ridiculous policies.
Team America World Police nailed this attitude: “It’s our job as actors to read the paper in the morning and then go on TV and talk about it like it’s our opinion.”
Touche! Well said. Yes, the same Seth Rogen, who by the way, said that white supremacists were “review bombing” Santa Inc.
Mediocre actor. World class c@3t!
Please go back to Lock and Load
Unfortunately most of the so called libertarians are pathetic blowhards. Probably the US does ideally need now a period of authoritarian right wing government who would suppress Antifa and violent protests, take control of America-hating, crime supporting ‘mainstream’ media. Etc. It probably won’t get it!
China has already won. A nation that loathes its history and culture, and teaches its children to do this, has a cancer eating itself from the inside. One that considers that appointing ‘trans’ admirals is more important than defending the country, allows vast numbers of people to illegally cross its borders, will not have any will to defend itself in any confrontation.
Are the Chinese doing any of this? No, they are not.
You forgot to say Lock and Load!
Asking Cynthia Nixon and Seth Rogen about social issues is like seeking the opinion of Marie Antoinette on the issues facing the poor before the French Revolution. Of course their wealth so insulates them that they spout the equivalent of “let them eat cake”.
Dr Thomas Sowell, who knows something about growing up poor and black, states that he has given up appearing before congressional committees because he knows that whatever evidence he gives will be disregarded and the politicians will simply enact what they wanted to enact before seeking evidence on the basis of ideology.
You mean seeking the opinion of Marie Antoinette’s poodle.
Possibly a racist remark?
The problem is that they have become so good at what they do. The sophisticated, urbane, and articulate left does propaganda way better than the crass, uneducated, Neanderthal right. They do it so well that they have come to believe it themselves. They have chosen to live in a bright and sunny land of make-believe and illusion. The entire universe is a tabula rasa, where Hollywood movies serve to inform and instruct, and where any inconveniently disruptive vestige of objective reality, any pain which might awaken the woke, can be whisked away on a cloud of pacifying drugs… for now; but there will come a day of reckoning, as there always does.
“Soma” in Brave New World.
As a NYC Republican, though living in the Midwest for 5 decades, it’s easy to be dismissive of the left’s self-inflicted wounds. But I have long-time friends in major cities who are in real danger. Unfortunately, I just don’t see my friends embracing a new Ed Koch. It would be a major repudiation of their expressed values. So the road to safety and sanity will be slow and hard.
A conservative is a liberal who has been mugged.
Kim Fox, the Cook County (Chicago) State’s Attorney (D, Soros) won reelection in 2020. Her bad deeds weren’t enough to defeat her. She can continue not to prosecute the survivors of gang shootouts because everybody was shooting, so no one’s at fault. Fox chose not to prosecute the Jusse Smollet hoax, until public outcry forced her to do it.
The explanation is identity voting. If you vote your identity, bad governance is irrelevant. It doesn’t change your identity. So you keep voting your identity, even though the government gets worse and worse. If you’re convinced your identity means you vote for Democrats, you continue to vote for Democrats, regardless of how bad they do in governing.
The reason Democrats call all Republicans racist is because it maintains identity voting in minority communities. Democrats wouldn’t have a chance if people voted on the issues, like crime and school choice. So Democrats make sure that minorities think all Republicans are racist, so minorities won’t even consider voting for them. This leads to silly comments like saying Larry Elder, a black conservative running for Governor of California, is the black face of white supremacy. (You can check the LA Times for this whopper.) The need to preserve identity voting leads to Sen. Tim Scott (R, SC) and Lt. Gov. Elect Winsome Sears (R, VA) to be called house negros or tokens, even though their elections show Republicans vote on issues, not skin color.
All according to plan………
“are places with progressive prosecutors working to limit punishments for looters, organised thieves and the unruly, occasionally violent, homeless.”
Soros funded prosecutors most likely, and PostModernist, Neo-Marxist Liberal/Left intelligentsia backed. This is 100% useful Idiots fallowing great Evil in destroying their nation, and them self, in a planned movement – to ultimately allow the Elites to take real control of the West, instead of just their soft control.
It works like this – More Crime = Greater calls from the public to protect them. = More cameras, more monitoring of every thing said and written, more GPS, Spending monitoring, tracking, more spying, more data harvesting and meta-data crunching, facial recognition, bio-metric records, more gait – Syntax AI monitoring…
This is all to cause 1984. And increasing crime causes much to advance that. Surveillance obviously, then division as the predatory class are hated by the prey class, and also the other way – and all are suspicious and angry and scared – and so all become captured as society breaks and democracy is just bought and sold. The capture of the entire education system, the MSM and Social Media – it is far along the track…
I presume the tourist industry in these cities benefits from tourists flying in to loot $1,000 a day of free merchandise, or are only locals allowed to steal? “Come to San Francisco and help yourself” sounds like a good advertising slogan for buses and airlines to run. No need to bring your own tent, just help yourself to one.
I’m embarrassed that I had not considered hopping a flight to San Fran or LA to do my Christmas shopping. If I plan on reselling I think the travel expenses would be tax deductible, right?
More on this from Michael Shellenberger https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/why-violent-crime-is-rising
The Left has used criminals ever since they released them during the French Revolution to create The Terror of 1791 to 1793. Lenin used criminals to murder opponents post 1917 and they ran the Gulags.
The next step is to put criminals in uniform, such as The Cheka, to undertake officialextermination of the opposition.
Wakanda does not exist. Its denizens in reality only destroy they don’t create.
Being woke, is a state of mind that requires one to deny that humans need structure and order. One has to deny that there are sociopaths that live among us in order to believe that anarchy is the proper way societies should be structured. The Progressive Left reimagining of crime and punishment doesn’t come from a place of evil. It comes from a good heart, that being poor in and of itself should not be a crime. That the stealing of a loaf of bread is not a crime that deserves punishment. The problem with this is that we are NOT dealing with a Jean Valjean. We are dealing with mental illness, drug addiction, sociopaths. Real criminals who are willing to commit violence. Real criminals who are not capable of living and prospering amongst us. Progressives are living in a state of mind that doesn’t exist. So in the end they create hell for the rest of us to live in.
Trump wins next time.
I assume the wealthy Californians who support all this have private security…
The oddly-named mainstream media — it is far from it — thinks and acts like a cult, particularly the San Francisco Chronicle. It used to be a rather decent newspaper when I worked there.